Daily Briefing – June 19, 2020

Published on
June 19th, 2020
Duration
37 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 19, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: June 19th, 2020 • Duration: 37 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on a week of muted volatility amid a "quadruple witching" and unprecedented interventions from the world's major central banks. Raoul and Ash analyze the ECB's recent meeting around fiscal policy, and whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BOE) will follow the Fed and go into "hyperdrive," as Raoul puts it. The pair also discusses Apple's decision to close stores in the U.S. as the coronavirus continues to spread. Lastly, the pair looks forward to the upcoming "Crypto Gathering" on Real Vision. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses the recent Wirecard scandal and gives an overview of new action in the burgeoning corporate debt market.

Comments

  • SW
    Stephen W.
    20 June 2020 @ 09:13
    Why is Raoul assuming that all the stimulus is coming to an end, there is no end.....if the market drops there will just be more, we are going full on MMT
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 11:38
      This phase...therefore a window of vulnerability...
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      20 June 2020 @ 12:20
      So what you are saying is the market needs to fall to get “moar” stimulus on the field.
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      24 June 2020 @ 01:24
      I really don't know how desperate the CBs are going to be. Probably there will be one more phase till the election. Afterwards? That's a good question.
  • JT
    Jing T.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:21
    Wow, thanks for the Crypto Gathering! Great job Raoul!!
  • VL
    Victor L.
    22 June 2020 @ 21:37
    Transcript please
  • sc
    sung c.
    22 June 2020 @ 17:21
    Looking forward to the Crypto Gathering. Thank you Raoul for putting that on.
  • AP
    Alejandro P.
    20 June 2020 @ 16:26
    As a plus subscriber, I will be will to pay full cost of admission if you guys manage to get Craig S. Wright on that list. Just to watch the carnage.
    • LP
      Lauri P.
      21 June 2020 @ 10:22
      Nothing good comes out of giving that fraud a platform to spew his lies.
    • sc
      sung c.
      22 June 2020 @ 17:07
      Why in the world would anyone want a fraudster and conman such as Craig Wright for anything other than to take others for a ride?
  • SF
    Stephen F.
    20 June 2020 @ 15:14
    Very interesting talk. I would love to hear more about Wirecard.
    • JV
      Jonny V.
      22 June 2020 @ 13:31
      Yes, and yes quite a story. Will be a great movie one day. Surprised that EY has not been facing more of the music yet, really seems they have stuffed up big time, always hard to make trouble with a very profitable account.
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    21 June 2020 @ 21:12
    I have heard Raoul mention that these large BBB names will have their equity go to zero and so will the European banks. Is this just because they have such a large debt burden that can't reasonably be paid off or will the equity go to 0 prior to any insolvency event?
  • JC
    Jonathan C.
    21 June 2020 @ 20:00
    The irony that you cannot pay for the Crypto gathering with a crypto option....
  • DS
    Durthpreet S.
    21 June 2020 @ 19:36
    As always a brilliant video describing your thought process
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    21 June 2020 @ 19:19
    with regards to the upcoming crypto event, Raoul mentioned a email to hit the inbox of RV subs. Did this note already go out or still to come?
  • PW
    Paul W.
    20 June 2020 @ 11:46
    Crypto-Gathering. Glad to see Jesse from Kraken but.....where are https://blockstack.org/ first SEC approved ICO might have been interesting https://polkadot.network/ https://substrate.dev/docs/en/ much more suitable for DEFI than clunky ethereum smart contracts. and very underepresentated https://ethereum.org/foundation/ also from bitcoin ecosystem https://lightning.network/ https://www.rsk.co/ Disappointing to see " the biggest of all crypto frauds." getting top billing https://news.yahoo.com/investors-bring-class-action-lawsuit-184200470.html "The action is captioned: Crypto Assets Opportunity Fund LLC and Johnny Hong v. Block.one, Brendan Blumer, Daniel Larimer, Ian Grigg, and Brock Pierce, 1:20-cv-3829 (S.D.N.Y.). It is related to the action Williams et al. v. Block.One et al., 1:20-cv-02809 (S.D.N.Y.) pending before Judge Lewis A. Kaplan in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York".
    • FA
      Firas A.
      20 June 2020 @ 14:55
      Realvision is way behind the curve on cryptocurrency. It looks like their market research is limited to cryto twitter.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 17:14
      We're learning, testing an improving.
    • PW
      Paul W.
      20 June 2020 @ 17:36
      Governance ? Will there be a panel on this.....proof of stake is the direction all serious crypto projects are heading. From the recent cogx https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdtopZuv84k https://polkadot.network/a-walkthrough-of-polkadots-governance/
    • JS
      Juraj S.
      20 June 2020 @ 23:00
      For more info on working governance model, please also include someone from tezos.foundation/contact
    • OH
      Oliver H.
      21 June 2020 @ 15:33
      It might actually be helpful that RV are slightly behind the curve regarding blockchain/crypto/etc.- perhaps this is representative of where big institutions are in the process... I believe the value add here is the bridge between traditional markets and crypto rather than the detailed breakdown of it.
  • OH
    Oliver H.
    21 June 2020 @ 15:23
    Can't wait for The Gathering BUT nothing is for free! Real Vision will get paid back for this event in the long run by onboarding the RV viewers and driving forward the Crypto/ DeFi/ Blockchain narratives. This is not a criticism though, I subscribe to the movement! #100kBTC
  • jk
    johan k.
    21 June 2020 @ 11:43
    Who knows, we will probably be up 20% in the S&P next week. Nothing surprises me these days
  • ES
    Edward S.
    21 June 2020 @ 10:23
    Raoul has your thesis changed on dollar strength in light of Julian's analysis? Would be great to hear your thoughts on it. I'm still long dollar but starting to have a wobble!
  • JC
    James C.
    21 June 2020 @ 09:21
    Scarborough....industrial heartland?!?! Ha ha. Did you mean Middlesbrough, Raoul?
  • fk
    frederick k.
    20 June 2020 @ 21:55
    Dan Tapiero seems to think the recovery will be "checkmark" shaped. Hard to understand his logic, but he relies on a study by Ed Hyman. https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1273296816272965633
  • JV
    Jan V.
    20 June 2020 @ 21:29
    I don't understand why the bondholders of European banks are getting government support. When Bank assets are impaired and worth less than the liabilities. Why not perform a debt/equity swap? Current shareholders get wiped out. Current bondholders become the future shareholders. Total liabilities shrink. Liabilities are again less than assets, and the bank is solvent again.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    20 June 2020 @ 01:32
    Can’t see yet who’s involved in the crypto gathering but hopefully you got David Schwartz
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 17:17
      You can check them all here: https://festival.realvision.com/cryptogathering
  • WW
    Woody W.
    20 June 2020 @ 06:56
    I am trying to register the Crypto Gathering. I applied the Plus Member Code and I filled out the correct information. It shows' fix the error'. Could RealVision fix it please.
    • JB
      Julien B.
      20 June 2020 @ 10:56
      I had the same problem, try a different browser and it will work
    • ML
      Mehdi L.
      20 June 2020 @ 11:16
      Where did you get the Plus Member Code? I am a Plus member but I think I unsubscribed from all emails :/
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 17:16
      Hey guys, if you haven't already wrote me, please do so and we'll get back to you at the beginning of next week.
  • BT
    Ben T.
    20 June 2020 @ 10:23
    Excellent commentary as ever. Thanks to all three of you. Re: The Crypto Gathering. Will we be able to see attendees (as well as speakers) and network via the app? This has been a great feature in similar virtual conference/gatherings I have been part of. Have a great weekend.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 17:15
      Yes, you can check all the details here: https://festival.realvision.com/cryptogathering
  • CM
    Chris M.
    20 June 2020 @ 00:24
    Crypto gathering is free for RV members? Says $150 when I went to register.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 June 2020 @ 01:01
      Hi, Chris. Sorry to hear you're having trouble. As a subscriber, you should definitely be comped for The Gathering. If the problem persists, please reach out to us on Monday and we'll make sure we get the problem solved for you.
    • DD
      Donal D.
      20 June 2020 @ 04:59
      Yes I'm having the same problem went in and it wants my credit card details and I accessed the page from the RV site where it knows I'm already a member.
    • Cd
      Christiano d.
      20 June 2020 @ 11:23
      I filled the info as instructed and was billed anyways.. will there be a refund or I was not supposed to be billed at all?
    • SM
      Shaun M.
      20 June 2020 @ 12:06
      I followed the instructions below, worked just fine. Registered without any additional fees. Thanks.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      20 June 2020 @ 17:10
      Hey guys, you probably wrote me already but we'll help out no worries.
  • ED
    Edward D.
    20 June 2020 @ 16:23
    Wirecard shareholders were shocked? After 5 years of active short selling and FT investigations? That’s hilarious.
  • GM
    Guillermo M.
    20 June 2020 @ 16:21
    One humble observation: if liquidity is to be restrained by taking off the table some of the current stimuli, shouldn't that indicate a raise in interest rates? I´m asking this because of Raoul's thesis of rates going to zero soon. By the way, I enjoy every daily briefing, as well as the general content of RV, even if sometimes I do not agree with it (or, even better, also due to that!). The good thing is that it always keeps me thinking on alternatives. Keep your good work, guys, and have a nice weekend!
  • JS
    James S.
    20 June 2020 @ 14:30
    Speaking of the Houston shutdowns, I fully agree with Raol. We can probably withstand about another month of this. I live in Houston. Culturally, people here hate being told what to do by the government. Many people say this is just the flu and refuse to recognize the gravity of the problem. Texas Governor Greg Abott knows the local culture. He has come out strongly saying that a lot of these record daily infections readings are due to "one off events;" how many one off events can you have before you admit there is a consistent pattern emerging? We have been touting our hospital bed capacity, but because of the 2 week incubation period and exponential growth rate in new virus cases I believe we may actually be much closer to a shortage of hospital beds than the governor or his political party want to admit...
  • JK
    James K.
    20 June 2020 @ 12:36
    Love the remodeling Ash, cabinet flex Friday.
  • SC
    Stuart C.
    20 June 2020 @ 12:18
    Great work Ash - Keep hitting those pitches out of the park!
  • IP
    IDA P.
    20 June 2020 @ 11:47
    I don't know 27 people who agree on anything, but for the Euro situation I believe that it's necessary that Germany decides clearly and without any ambiguity. I don't think anyone will have the courage to go against Germany. So itn would be one country pulling 26. Could this be a possibilty?
    • IP
      IDA P.
      20 June 2020 @ 11:48
      I've seen one bully bullying 26 people, yes.
  • PW
    Paul W.
    20 June 2020 @ 10:32
    ping
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    20 June 2020 @ 09:33
    Did you get Andreas Antonopolous for CryptoWeek?
  • TN
    Tim N.
    20 June 2020 @ 01:11
    Great conversation as usual. Tying this in with the excellent George Goncalves interview it appears that USG has sold a lot of treasuries to the market/Fed and is sitting on $ 1.6 trillion in cash - some from QE and the rest from the private sector. However policy makers can't agree what to spend it on. There are not enough people trained in 5G infrastructure, bridge building etc to spend productively. Giving out money to people for consumption could lead to degeneracy and cause uncontrolled inflation or the opposite if you believe the thesis that it is impossible to generate inflation in our ageing western democracies. It seems all roads are leading to a debt jubilee ... hopefully not a world war.
    • DS
      David S.
      20 June 2020 @ 01:23
      Hopefully neither. DLS
    • TN
      Tim N.
      20 June 2020 @ 09:28
      Also as some of the treasuries are not sold back to Fed but remain in the private sector this exacerbates the deflationary forces if the government cannot spend the money fast enough ie money is being sucked out of the private sector and sitting in the Treasury whilst the politicians argue how to spend it.
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    20 June 2020 @ 06:44
    Always great to get this prescient commentary and Raoul’s friendly face to talk markets/economy/macro to us right before the weekend. Thanks to everyone at Real Vision!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    20 June 2020 @ 06:08
    Again, great work Ash, Raoul (and Jack). So many essential points covered in a relaxed manner. It's hard to see how any govt. can withdraw stimulus, and how to price that (mix, reduced, same, none) in. I wonder too about valuations (stocks for eg) - if they are relative, and in the current context (say 90% of GDP v Jan 2020 ie still a recession) that is still better than nothing, so buy - prices could (eventually) go higher with lower returns on investment (as has happened with US bonds over the past year - something is better than zero or negative rates). The Crypto gathering sounds brilliant and worthy of the hype it is receiving. I like the little ad for it too btw. Enjoy your weekend too.
  • DM
    Darren M.
    20 June 2020 @ 01:02
    Did RV just add the ability to increase speed of the videos or did I completely not notice this until now? Regardless so nice to have to save time!
    • ML
      Michele L.
      20 June 2020 @ 06:05
      they've always had it. it's great - i dont watch anything at normal speed anymore.
  • TG
    Terry G.
    20 June 2020 @ 04:46
    Raoul always says people doesn't understand pandemic, as if he does understand it better. Better if he stays in his lane and being a dollar bull.
    • DK
      Dean K.
      20 June 2020 @ 04:59
      Whether the numbers and the deaths associated with the "pandemic" are total bullshit is one thing, but the effect on the world economy is devastating.
    • TG
      Terry G.
      20 June 2020 @ 05:29
      The point is not about the numbers - it's the assumption that he understands pandemics and covid-19 better, which is rather misplaced.
  • DK
    Dean K.
    20 June 2020 @ 04:51
    Hey Raoul and Ash, another great interview as always, thank you.... Just a thought though, about the brave new world we are entering, is the potential impact of ever improving 3D printers, where just like the beginning of the PC revolution, the public become incentivised to own and operate home based 3D machines. Perhaps to picture we have millions of households with 3D printers operating across a city or country producing millions of component parts which then get shipped to an automated sorting and assembly plant, thereby bringing mass industrial manufacturing and production back into countries like the US, Australia etc in a decentralised way..... Another way 3D printers could be used is to help colonise space, whereby a large printer gets landed on the moon, unpacks itself and then starts building permanent habitats prior to arrival human arrival. May sound crazy but then again... :)
  • TS
    Ture S.
    20 June 2020 @ 03:24
    do you know 50?
  • AH
    Attila H.
    20 June 2020 @ 03:06
    Hey, thanks for the update guys. Jack, I haven't find any news about Singapore Banks in regard to Wirecard's missing cash. Did you meant The Philippines? Or maybe I missed some news. Can't wait for the next week's interviews!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    20 June 2020 @ 03:00
    All I am interested in are the gold miners!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    20 June 2020 @ 02:53
    BRAVE browser is pretty good. I am using it as well. You can listen to Youtube with the screen off!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    20 June 2020 @ 02:47
    Yesterday I was thinking about COVID-19 and the new infections occurring. My thoughts were if we are making continuous on-off shutdowns on relatively low new cases we are "never" going to get heard immunity which means it can be with us even longer as 2 years. However, there might gonna be a vaccine or might not. Or maybe some already existing medications like dexamethasone which is a corticosteroid. I believe it's reducing the immune response,the cytokine storm. What is going to be interesting is how the stock market going to react to new shutdowns in the US in about 1-2 months from now. Will it be a rude awakening that this virus gonna be here longer with us? This awakening can coincide in time with Q2 earnings. That's going to be interesting!
  • MO
    Miguel O.
    20 June 2020 @ 02:31
    The rate of change of the rate of change is headed in the right direction with RV... You guys are upgrading the visuals, (looking sharp in 4K, Raoul), the intros, the storylines, and mostly...you guys are in a flow where the conversations just float in the right direction. Congrats on building the right culture to thrive in this massively-shifting-world. Excited to see the CryptoFestival, gents. Up and to the right!
  • JG
    John G.
    20 June 2020 @ 01:33
    Imagine Raoul is a hell of a lot of fun to have a beer with, dispute his sobering views on the economy. But what the hell, might as well have as much fun as they did on the Titanic while in good style too. Surely we can measure up.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    20 June 2020 @ 00:11
    I disagree. The govt has any countless physical infrastructure projects they can employ the mass unemployed into. High speed rail, upgrading energy transmission, roads, tunnels, bridges.. or perhaps give out awesome perks to those who move back to agriculture and produce organic food. That being said, the white cue ball on the table is so satisfying somehow. Happy weekend everyone :) Love to you all and a good glass of wine or beer.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      20 June 2020 @ 00:31
      Spending is a demographic-based decisison
    • TN
      Tim N.
      20 June 2020 @ 01:21
      How long would it take the government to train the engineers and construction workers to build these projects? Would this spending be equitable eg gender neutral? With an ageing population would these infrastructure projects generate income to pay back the investment? The solutions are not that simple otherwise we would have sorted all this out in 2008/9.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    19 June 2020 @ 23:18
    The white cueball is back!!! All is right with the world, at least for today.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      20 June 2020 @ 00:20
      No, that’s ominous. Whenever I see the cue ball, I get scared. It’s a bad sign.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      20 June 2020 @ 00:33
      I thought we were talking about Ash's forehead.. but he hasnt gone full metal jacket. someday soon lol
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 June 2020 @ 01:15
      Tobin: There's always the possibility of another 'Clipper Malfunction'
  • DS
    David S.
    20 June 2020 @ 00:42
    Mr. Bennington - When I buy a shout at the microbrewery tonight, 27 will instanly agree. I am very persuasive. Cheers! DLS
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 June 2020 @ 00:57
      Ha. Yes. I bet. Can’t wait for NYC to reopen.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    20 June 2020 @ 00:37
    Raoul I truly appreciate your high level insight and ability to communicate ideas at a round level. Liquidity has been a strong focus of mine, and I do see a correlation between recent equity weakness (overnight downgaps) and lack of repo as well as low QE. Today saw the first day of increased Treasury buying by the Fed (an out of character 10b+ of treasuries) The economy is in the gutter. The Stock market is in the sky. At least we have each other. I will attend your cryptofest
  • PS
    Paul S.
    20 June 2020 @ 00:07
    Scarborough, the industrial heartland. How long since you lived in the UK mate?
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    19 June 2020 @ 23:53
    When you talk about the V recovery and your belief, as well as that of many other macro guys you respect, that it isn't going to happen …. but, the equity market is seeing things differently …. isn't there "smart" money going into equities ? It can't all be small, retail Robinhood traders, can it ? If not all small retail … who are the professional buyers and what is driving them ? Do they expect to have perfect timing and get out before a crash ? Just curious.