Comments
Transcript
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JDEvery recession manifests into social issues amongst the disgruntled. Investors know that this is all pointless - a brief moment of noise that will be forgotten quickly by markets, just like the 2011 London Riots, or the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. It's a waste of RV time to even talk about it.
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SSAsh on fire today! But why so optimistic on the future of American Capitalism? Its last vestiges seem to be smouldering in every city, across the country. Fiscal placation, combined with the further restriction of civil liberties will follow. Nothing about this looks good for Free Market Capitalism to me. We’re plunging headlong into AOC’s dystopia.
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RMLove these RVDB's! Is Raoul planning to come on and provide an update on his thesis/narrative soon?
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IPI am a fan of both Ed and Ash and the whole group, etc., but I have the impression that you were all bearish even in April, after the announcements of Fed and State stimulus, and now you all seem bullish, I'm not criticizing but please comment why you were bearish before and why you have changed your mind now, or have I wrongly interpreted?
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FSBullish about the future of US capitalism? Ash, are you expecting the end of bailout-nation and the return of Schumpeter?
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JCIt would be interesting to look at the French "gilets jaune" protests all throughout 2019 and how they affected the French (or Parisian) economy. Given the organized nature of a lot of these protests in the US one would think the economic impact on cities like NYC and Chicago will be significant, particulalry in the wake of coronavirus. Am just wondering what the 2019 impact of the protests ended up for Paris in particular. Thanks.
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IHSeptember/October will be closer to the election in November. I wonder if the markets will get re-rated if there is a thought that Trump won't be elected. If the protests keep going until then, or the second wave hits worse than the first, then he could be in trouble. He will be walking a very fine line.
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smWhen did RV start deleting comments?
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PCFocussing on the NDQ and SP500 might skew our view on what is really going in the market due to the impact of just a few tech stocks that are recently seen as 'safe havens' and this combined with the impact of the indexing mantra as extra fuel. Looking at the Russell 2000 may be more relevant in comparison to past recessions. At the moment it is hitting its 61,8% retracement for about a week now and is still well below its 200 daily MA. The rally is probably higher than on average during recession but this may not be supprising because the 42% drop in just 4 weeks was huge. Anyway, the oversold condition due to the March drop is completely gone now. The daily RSI is chopping around in the 60-70 range, above its february level, and the weekly RSI is back above 50. It looks to me that it is topping out. With NDQ currently also at ATH I do question where additional fuel for a market rally will come from? We may chop in a range for some time until Sept-Oct as Ed discussed or any spark may move the market suddenly lower in the coming weeks.
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SLNick's intro is very interesting. A fuller segment on that would be great.
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RTThere was alot of talk in the past by RV/Raoul about the Euro drop and Dollar rise in the past and that has not happened so far. I would like to see Raoul come on the show and explain his narrative with the possibility those predictions are falling by the wayside as the charts change.
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BEFrom the outside the US looks like a banana republic / military dictatorship. I am grateful to be on the outside.
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PPEd... the reckoning will be what happens in the election. Right now the status quo is priced in... If that changes.... buckle up..... it's going to be a rough ride.
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DHUnrelated but imp: Why does RV show me videos on frontpage that I dont have access to? For example the Laxman interview. It is locked for my tier but this info is not visible on the homepage. Its only when I click can I see the lock button. Kind of annoying and not a subtle way of telling me what I dont have access to!
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EMAsh...thanks for your great commentary. I didn't know you were a specialist in bitcoin! I would like to add some bitcoin to my portfolio, but I don't know how to do it through TD Ameritrade...any advice for me? Thanks in advance. I love the Daily Briefing and watch all the time.
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LJI feel like we've had the frugality narrative kicking around for a while now, some arrive at it from a sustainability/environmental perspective, others like the FIRE crowd, are doing it for different reasons. Both are reacting against an over-reach in consumption and spending.
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ABBarbershops aren’t just for cutting hair. They are basically the only male-only space left apart from locker rooms
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SNHint: when the data is so bad it can only get better. Or in other words, the market is going UP. I do not understand why real vision keeps holding the narrative of catastrophe that soon going to happen. We already had the catastrophe, the market recover now.
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RDFrom the outside it looks to me like the USA are standing with their back against the wall with no idea left but printing funny money. It might not sound empathical therefor I apologize towards all the peacefull American people as I#m sharing their pain when I say: Not being American I prefer the USA being engaged in kind of a civil war instead of starting a war with a foreign country to distract from their homemade problems as the last card to play for the Princes of the Dollar..
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mBInteresting opening on historical time frame. Haven’t heard much about that time frame. Like to summary of guest speakers. Ash on fire. Agree with Ed on carnage. Time will tell.
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TMMy Girlfriend has assisted me with cutting my hair twice so far (got some DIY clippers). She's done a good job. However, we've both agreed that I'll feel safer with a professional Barber cutting my hair, as soon as they're properly open again. For a straight crue cut, it would be fine. However, I'm a 3 on top and 0.5 on the sides, and merging/fading those in takes some practice.
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HJGreat analysis. Thank you for your focus on the markets/macro, as always.
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HCI have been saying for months now that if the markets are recovering and unemployment remains at +20% the people are further disconnected from wealth building and the American dream. In addition to the added indebtedness of government. This disconnect is having negative HUGE social ramifications. This disconnect is all driven by the FED's pump. For Jay Powell to say that the FED "absolutely does not contribute to wealth disparity" is proven wrong and a disingenuous prevarication to the American public.
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GCThanks guys. This was one of the better daily briefings I think. Appreciate the forward guidance in terms of equities later this year. Keep up the great work!
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JKGuys, as always very informative. Ash, unfortunately we have people in our own country who do not wish the US well.
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OAEd- I agree these things take time to play out. As I think you're said on this before, March 2008 we saw massive action from the Fed to keep the housing market from going bust, but it wasn't until September that Lehman went bust and everything truly went sideways.
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SPI wonder what impact the November election would have on Ed's September, October timing.
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TBEd - I like your view on the fall - it does seem that things could get dicey during that time - election, winter, virus, and likely extended negative PMI prints (great explanation Ash), but I am going to definitely keep an eye on the Fed liquidity during that time. Just because the economy looks rough, it doesn't mean the market will crater anymore. Consider that even in light of current economic conditions, there are so many.. ahem--buyers, in the market. --> 61.8% what happened to that?! Lotta Boomers voted for Trump and he knows that. Where would their votes lie should their 401ks look less rosy hmm? This all ties in Sentiment, Demographics, Liquidity. Always a pleasure gleaning insight from you guys.
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KCReally good update guys! Ed thanks for being specific on your future outlook.
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RMGreat perspective on effect of protests on markets. I was at the '68 march on Washington. Was not aware of the market in those days.
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DSIs it possible that all the Algos did not write social unrest into their programs? DLS