Daily Briefing – June 22, 2020

Published on
June 22nd, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 22, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: June 22nd, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison explore the perilous state of the global markets amid the unrelenting spread of coronavirus. They discuss the disturbing "second wave" of coronavirus in the U.S. – in states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona – as well as around the world and evaluate how the continued spread will impact economic growth and financial returns across different asset classes. Ed hazards whether the U.S. yield curve will see bear-steepening (or bull flattening), and Ash puts the widening "breadth" of the U.S. rally in proper context. In the intro, Jack Farley explores why CLO managers are often rendered incapable just at the time that bold action is most required.

Comments

Transcript

  • mt
    martin t.
    22 June 2020 @ 23:22
    Looked at the line-up for the crypto days and I think realvision is making a big mistake and a big disservice to their audience. All you will get is a bunch of people telling you that bitcoin is the alpha and omega of the space because that's where their bags lie. This is a space which is constantly evolving and still looking for the right direction, realvision should seek multiple perspectives. People like @Rewkang, @iam__vance or @delitzer would have been so much more insightful than freeking Saifedean Ammous who is gonna tell you to hodl and eat meat.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      23 June 2020 @ 01:16
      Of notable omission is anyone from Ripple or the XRP community, which does somewhat reflect a lack of diverse perspectives.
    • CA
      Cyrus A.
      23 June 2020 @ 10:05
      Agree with that sentiment...I have learnt a lot about BTC from listening to perennial opponents such as Peter Schiff....understanding his argument, at the very least, provides a counter weight to either substantiate or adjust your own thoughts on BTC . Once you have drunk the initial BTC kool-aid, you need to have a cold shower and analyse the space with a clear mind...listening to opponents helps one do that. Not to mention, BTC and the broader altcoin and stablecoin space are two different kettles of fish
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      25 June 2020 @ 02:18
      Correcting myself, I now notice one speaker who used to work at Ripple, and another who is bullish on XRP. This should be good. Thanks RV for putting it together!!
  • JI
    Jose I.
    23 June 2020 @ 21:12
    Good discussion! Food for thought - I agree with Ed’s thesis, but could we have a confirmation bias in terms of what data we look at and consider key? Are there other economic new data points or info that would make a different or more nuanced case? - It would be great if you could share some data on the flows into equities. Perhaps equity markets are not going up because an optimistic V recovery, but just because of liquidity flows, QE and Fed put?
  • DS
    David S.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:05
    Good introduction Mr. Farley especially about R naught. Although it is easy to say that the stock market may be pricing in a V-shaped economic recovery back to prior GDP levels, it may just be money flowing into the most promising stock market helter skelter. There is apparently a huge amount of cash in money market accounts still on the side. The stock market may continue to go up caused by more and more investors chasing fewer and fewer stocks. Inflation may make them correct in the long run. At this point I do not think any rational person is really planning on a V-shaped economic recovery to former GDP levels soon. DLS
    • BB
      Benjamin B.
      23 June 2020 @ 06:44
      That's it, regardless of what you think the shape of the recovery is going to be, if you have sat out of this equity rally you have lost serious $$$...
    • DS
      David S.
      23 June 2020 @ 20:37
      Benjamin B. - You are correct. If I would have just bought Fangs and held on I would have made money in this market. This is in 20/20 hindsight. Since I do not trade other people's' money, I am ok. I see a long time until corporate profits come back. Many governments will be in revenue trouble all over the world. Governments at all levels will see radically less in tax receipts unless they tax at the top line. Taxes as the top line will reduce cash flow and net income. Most governments started out before the COVID-19 crisis underwater. How much farther underwater are they now.? How much farther will they go? For now, I am sticking to gold, gold miners and cash. I am hoping to find some value within the next year or two. It will be that long before anything good happens on the COVID-19 front. I guess I just have a low fear of missing out. A problem with being happy. DLS
  • CT
    Chris T.
    23 June 2020 @ 08:42
    Does anyone genuinely believe, given how quickly Coronavirus spreads, that it took until March /April /May/ June to go viral across the West from China in "January"? or is it just the testing is whats changing
    • JW
      Jim W.
      23 June 2020 @ 11:44
      First known Chinese case November 17, 1999.
  • JW
    Jim W.
    23 June 2020 @ 11:44
    On Japan...I'm a long term resident, so a few things that I hope the RV team manages to ask: 1-given the demographics of Japan and the US being so different, what kind of positive tailwinds could we see for the JP equity market? 2-Japanese firms have been hoarding cash for the last 20-30 years. Is that going to be what happens with the shift in the US towards stakeholder capitalism that everyone is talking about (https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/japan-firms-habit-of-hoarding-cash-becomes-boon-for-dividends) 3-The actual number of cases for the "Shingata Coronavirus" in Japan are comparatively few, vis-a-vis the rest of the world, considering the low amount of testing--wouldn't that affect the unemployment rate more than anything else?
  • SM
    Shaun M.
    23 June 2020 @ 10:26
    Haha, "that is my microphone"..... "yeah, I like that, its looking good"! This made me laugh this morning, great opening :)
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    23 June 2020 @ 03:37
    Quite frankly speaking the whore reopening process (at least here in Europe) is a joke! It is highly unlikely that we going to get any vaccination against it! Either way, we start serious testings and border control or let it spread like in Sweden! In Europe, it's none of these two in most of the countries. Therefore I believe it will be an epic disaster! This opening, closing thing is good for nothing! Then I would rather do the Swedish model! If you know you have a chronic disease or some serious health issue, quarantine yourself, if not, do whatever you want! That would be better for the economy as well. Plus by the next time people will be asked for going into lockdown, they gonna show the middle finger! As most of them are fed up with it already!
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      23 June 2020 @ 03:38
      Misstype: It is whole reopening :D You can't edit it once you hit enter!
    • CT
      Chris T.
      23 June 2020 @ 08:51
      Horse already bolted.. with sample data showing over 27% of London having antibodies and only 198 official London deaths its clear the whole lockdown was too late/ arguably a waste of time as the virus had already gone viral in the populations by March. Again that London data in line with the Stanford study. The denominator (people that have been exposed to it already) is way higher than the experts thought. Quite simply it doesnt take from "January" until March-June for a virus to spread from China https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC3nptwY50I
  • JG
    Jonathan G.
    23 June 2020 @ 08:09
    Great explanation on the yield curve! Thanks a lot!
  • CC
    Cornelius C.
    23 June 2020 @ 04:06
    he bought a mike but still sounds the same...
  • SG
    Sebastian G.
    23 June 2020 @ 03:19
    Wow. I can't wait to hear this interview about Japan being some sort of leader...
  • CD
    C D.
    23 June 2020 @ 02:32
    Great microphone Ash!
  • CH
    Connor H.
    23 June 2020 @ 02:19
    Why are you showing ads before RV essential? We are paying for it.
  • RA
    Rob A.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:42
    Ash, I must say your audio quality is fantastic. Would you mind letting me know the brand / model number of your new mic?
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      23 June 2020 @ 01:58
      Hi, Robert. It's a HyperX QuadCast. https://www.hyperxgaming.com/unitedstates/us/microphone/quadcast-gaming-microphone?gclid=CjwKCAjwrcH3BRApEiwAxjdPTUsykGIP7HPSiR5GjW-4jqYTQZ2Vl9mW5_Ts3WV2pfiJQSZhNjYiBBoCGwUQAvD_BwE
  • TM
    Trent M.
    23 June 2020 @ 01:46
    Ash, I can't help but wonder what you keep in those huge file cabinets. Next time you decorate you could get rid of the cabinets?
  • MC
    Michael C.
    23 June 2020 @ 01:29
    Ed/Ash, Please put broader context around the yield curve coversation by overlaying inflation expectations on it. Make it more relevant. I hope you have noticed that commodity prices (look at CRB), have been rallying since May. The bond market bought the reflation narrative for a few days in early June and then quickly discounted it with Treasury yields falling hard and the curve flattening (like you said Ed). Meanwhile commodity prices have continued trending higher. So either the rally in commodities is about to stall and come back in line with traditional signals of inflation or this reflation narrative might be turning into a stagflation narrative. Talk about this. Traditional signals like 5Y5Y forwards have been trending sideways for 2 months (not really saying much about inflation) but a broad spectrum of commodities are waving a few flags. Early days but you could put a lot of cotect around this coversation.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      23 June 2020 @ 01:44
      Navarro just took the trade deal out behind the shed and shot it. See if this pulls commodities back in line with inflation expectation over the next few days/weeks.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:51
    I know two things: 1) the bond market is extremely important to understand and 2) I don't understand it as well as I could. Thank you, Ed, for adding to and reinforcing clarity on this subject and its importance.
  • RR
    Ramon R.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:24
    Always good vibes from both Ash and Ed. Thank you I agree with the long term favorable circumstances in Japan and probably most Asia. Another factor is that the US is the only country with significant social unrest and given the lack of safety net and extreme media polarization it can get even worse this fall before the election. Seriously considering moving out of the US next year.
  • AT
    Andrew T.
    23 June 2020 @ 00:08
    In a world where there is more passive than active money flows the market breadth is not the signal it used to be.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    22 June 2020 @ 23:39
    Ash, make sure you watch Brent and Lyn’s interview/debate on the US $ as it’s not only one of the best interviews to date, but it really helps to explain in more plainly spoke detail as to the juxtaposition of Raoul/Julian and Brent/Luke Gorman views. Another nice intro today Jack.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      23 June 2020 @ 00:00
      Will do!
  • RK
    Robert K.
    22 June 2020 @ 23:16
    C'mon guys unemployment in Japan dropping mainly because the population is dying out - look at the demographics and very prohibitive immigration policy. https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/japan-population/
  • AC
    Ay C.
    22 June 2020 @ 23:12
    Great interview. Thank you guys.
  • TS
    Tom S.
    22 June 2020 @ 22:58
    Given the recent flood of data detailing highly diverse impacts of COVID-19 dependent on previously ignored specifics (such as blood type), my “hope for the best” is rapidly morphing from “finding a vaccine” to “finding and tailoring effective treatments”.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.