Comments
Transcript
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mtLooked at the line-up for the crypto days and I think realvision is making a big mistake and a big disservice to their audience. All you will get is a bunch of people telling you that bitcoin is the alpha and omega of the space because that's where their bags lie. This is a space which is constantly evolving and still looking for the right direction, realvision should seek multiple perspectives. People like @Rewkang, @iam__vance or @delitzer would have been so much more insightful than freeking Saifedean Ammous who is gonna tell you to hodl and eat meat.
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JIGood discussion! Food for thought - I agree with Ed’s thesis, but could we have a confirmation bias in terms of what data we look at and consider key? Are there other economic new data points or info that would make a different or more nuanced case? - It would be great if you could share some data on the flows into equities. Perhaps equity markets are not going up because an optimistic V recovery, but just because of liquidity flows, QE and Fed put?
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DSGood introduction Mr. Farley especially about R naught. Although it is easy to say that the stock market may be pricing in a V-shaped economic recovery back to prior GDP levels, it may just be money flowing into the most promising stock market helter skelter. There is apparently a huge amount of cash in money market accounts still on the side. The stock market may continue to go up caused by more and more investors chasing fewer and fewer stocks. Inflation may make them correct in the long run. At this point I do not think any rational person is really planning on a V-shaped economic recovery to former GDP levels soon. DLS
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CTDoes anyone genuinely believe, given how quickly Coronavirus spreads, that it took until March /April /May/ June to go viral across the West from China in "January"? or is it just the testing is whats changing
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JWOn Japan...I'm a long term resident, so a few things that I hope the RV team manages to ask: 1-given the demographics of Japan and the US being so different, what kind of positive tailwinds could we see for the JP equity market? 2-Japanese firms have been hoarding cash for the last 20-30 years. Is that going to be what happens with the shift in the US towards stakeholder capitalism that everyone is talking about (https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/japan-firms-habit-of-hoarding-cash-becomes-boon-for-dividends) 3-The actual number of cases for the "Shingata Coronavirus" in Japan are comparatively few, vis-a-vis the rest of the world, considering the low amount of testing--wouldn't that affect the unemployment rate more than anything else?
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SMHaha, "that is my microphone"..... "yeah, I like that, its looking good"! This made me laugh this morning, great opening :)
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TZQuite frankly speaking the whore reopening process (at least here in Europe) is a joke! It is highly unlikely that we going to get any vaccination against it! Either way, we start serious testings and border control or let it spread like in Sweden! In Europe, it's none of these two in most of the countries. Therefore I believe it will be an epic disaster! This opening, closing thing is good for nothing! Then I would rather do the Swedish model! If you know you have a chronic disease or some serious health issue, quarantine yourself, if not, do whatever you want! That would be better for the economy as well. Plus by the next time people will be asked for going into lockdown, they gonna show the middle finger! As most of them are fed up with it already!
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JGGreat explanation on the yield curve! Thanks a lot!
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CChe bought a mike but still sounds the same...
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SGWow. I can't wait to hear this interview about Japan being some sort of leader...
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RJGreat microphone Ash!
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CHWhy are you showing ads before RV essential? We are paying for it.
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RAAsh, I must say your audio quality is fantastic. Would you mind letting me know the brand / model number of your new mic?
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TMAsh, I can't help but wonder what you keep in those huge file cabinets. Next time you decorate you could get rid of the cabinets?
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MCEd/Ash, Please put broader context around the yield curve coversation by overlaying inflation expectations on it. Make it more relevant. I hope you have noticed that commodity prices (look at CRB), have been rallying since May. The bond market bought the reflation narrative for a few days in early June and then quickly discounted it with Treasury yields falling hard and the curve flattening (like you said Ed). Meanwhile commodity prices have continued trending higher. So either the rally in commodities is about to stall and come back in line with traditional signals of inflation or this reflation narrative might be turning into a stagflation narrative. Talk about this. Traditional signals like 5Y5Y forwards have been trending sideways for 2 months (not really saying much about inflation) but a broad spectrum of commodities are waving a few flags. Early days but you could put a lot of cotect around this coversation.
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CLI know two things: 1) the bond market is extremely important to understand and 2) I don't understand it as well as I could. Thank you, Ed, for adding to and reinforcing clarity on this subject and its importance.
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RRAlways good vibes from both Ash and Ed. Thank you I agree with the long term favorable circumstances in Japan and probably most Asia. Another factor is that the US is the only country with significant social unrest and given the lack of safety net and extreme media polarization it can get even worse this fall before the election. Seriously considering moving out of the US next year.
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ATIn a world where there is more passive than active money flows the market breadth is not the signal it used to be.
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RAAsh, make sure you watch Brent and Lyn’s interview/debate on the US $ as it’s not only one of the best interviews to date, but it really helps to explain in more plainly spoke detail as to the juxtaposition of Raoul/Julian and Brent/Luke Gorman views. Another nice intro today Jack.
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RKC'mon guys unemployment in Japan dropping mainly because the population is dying out - look at the demographics and very prohibitive immigration policy. https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/japan-population/
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ACGreat interview. Thank you guys.
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TSGiven the recent flood of data detailing highly diverse impacts of COVID-19 dependent on previously ignored specifics (such as blood type), my “hope for the best” is rapidly morphing from “finding a vaccine” to “finding and tailoring effective treatments”.