Daily Briefing – June 23, 2020

Published on
June 23rd, 2020
Duration
32 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 23, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: June 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 32 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest news in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison first analyze the breaking story about Wirecard, a German fintech company, and its implications for Germany. They also talk about how the Fed has released the animal spirits on markets, bolstered by exorbitant amounts of liquidity, and anticipate the pullback in consumption in light of a W-shaped recovery. Finally, they explain how the pandemic reasserting itself will end up strengthening the dollar and lead to a liquidity crunch. In the intro, Nick Correa explains the latest developments in the Wirecard story and provides some context around how they arrived at this point.

Comments

Transcript

  • JB
    James B.
    25 June 2020 @ 13:02
    The bezzle shrinks! Great stuff. Tesla next.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    25 June 2020 @ 12:35
    And the 2020 Anti-Corruption Award goes to ... Wirecard's Short Sellers.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:05
    In the West we, including me, are having problems with the pandemic. In Asia they saw the real effects of pandemics recently with SARS and MERS. Asian countries immediately took steps to control the spread of the virus. They did not have to debate that this is just the regular flu. They did not have to debate to wear masks. They did not have to debate to socially isolated. They either choose to cope or were forced to cope. They tested as many people as possible. They traced as many people as possible. Because of the culture of personal freedom in the West, we need to overcome our fear of authoritarian control when it is in our own self-interest. People in power, both left and right, use the pandemic as an agenda item. Some people in power do not wear masks. Some people in power do not socially distance themselves and/or promote others to not socially distance either. This is not just in the US look at Latin America. A judge in Brazil issued an order for the president to wear a mask. We are fighting a real pandemic with crazy people. The pandemic is science. It does not care what you believe. The virus finds fertile ground in your body to reproduce and spread to another host. It is like a seed falling in fertile soil – you and me. Even though I understand what to do, I am having trouble doing it also. There is no court of appeals with a virus. If it can get you; it will have its way with you. You must deal with it without a court of appeals. It is not affected by words. Do not ask Newton to save you after you jumped off the cliff. DLS
    • CT
      Chris T.
      24 June 2020 @ 07:24
      "This pandemic is science." Science is driven by data. Heres Stanford study data showing that the death rate is in line with seasonal flu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-saAuXaPok More data for you: 1) In the UK the avg covid victim age is higher than UK life expectancy. Same in the US. 2) In London, a population of 8-10m, >17% of population have antibodies in sample testing at last Govt statement. The number of dead from covid as per death certificate = 193 https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london 3) In England as per NHS England data at start of June, the number of dead due to covid under the age of 40 with no pre existing condition = 35 people. 4) No pre exisiting conditions under the age of 60 = 290 deaths 5) Total number of deaths in England under the age of 40 including those with pre conditions = 208 6) Total number of deaths in England under the age of 60 including those with pre conditions = 2336 7) There is approx 8000 less pneumonia deaths in the UK this year vs 5 year average. Thus suggesting either covid has cured pneumonia or there is approx 8000 misclassifications 8) If you are under the age of 65 you are more likely to die from a car crash. This is real data. This is the type of data Real Vision should be sharing with its members and analysing. Amazes me how many "educated" people dont take a look for themselves at the data and come to an educated risk adjusted view of the virus. Not what the media narrative would have you believe. If anyone wants sources happy to link or google ONS death data, NHS England covid deaths or use the links above.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 07:54
      Chris T. If you really believe it is just the flu, no worries. Have fun. DLS
    • CT
      Chris T.
      24 June 2020 @ 08:41
      I'm just providing the data and deriving my view based on factual data. Feel free to validate your point with data.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      24 June 2020 @ 15:11
      Chris the data from the Stanford study is incorrect. The mortality rate is already higher in many countries than their predicted total case fatalities. Also the seasonal flu data is modeled data, not actual confirmed cases or deaths. The comparison between an ongoing pandemic and an estimation model is futile.
    • CT
      Chris T.
      24 June 2020 @ 16:38
      Stanford study was not a model or a prediction, it was based on data they observed and sampled. Stanford made no prediction of future modelled data or country fatalities. Seasonal flu deaths are counted, not modelled in many European countries. Even if you take away the Stanford study, the London data also backs up Stanfords data. 17% population with antibodies, 8-10m population, 193 confirmed deaths. Thats even before you take the rest of the UK death data which is rather compelling in showing its risk to those under the age of 60. Again if anyone wants to provide actual data to refute what i have presented and the Stanford study then please do so. Very open to debate or be informed. Sweeping claims without data have no basis in an informed debate.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 21:44
      Science is driven by data when the event is completed. When the pandemic is over the data available will be analyzed. I will bet no analysis will come to the conclusion this is just a normal flu. If so, you could just stay home and cure it. DLS
    • CT
      Chris T.
      25 June 2020 @ 08:14
      Science is not driven by data when the "event is completed". Completion of an event is not a prerequisite. Did gravity finish? Earth stop spinning? Humans stop dying from multiple illnesses? We know how deadly various illnesses are- heart disease, seasonal flu, Cancer, Aids et al, but your logic suggests until the illness stops forming or spreading in humans we cant form a view on its deadliness? Thats not a sound counter argument or a support of your thesis. we have had over 3 months of in depth detailed data which is showing a clear trend of the denominator being significantly higher time and time again whilst the numerator, in most Western countries peaked 2-3 months ago now and has continued to fall. Yes this may turn back up but likewise the denominator would also turn up. The trend is there on countless data samples in multiple countries that the death rate is comparable to seasonal flu due to the denominator (people who have had exposure to the virus) being significantly higher than all early estimates. Again, i'm basing this on data that i have presented above including, in what is said to be one of the highest death rate countries, the UK. I haven't even presented the data from HK, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, NZ. Feel free to link any data or evidence to counterclaim the view i have presented. I've still to see you post any data. I have presented multiple data which counters this "I will bet no analysis will come to the conclusion this is just a normal flu" As i have said, sweeping claims without data presented have no place in an informed debate.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 June 2020 @ 10:14
      During an experiment you only have part of the data. You try to make sense of it, but do not draw conclusion. It might be informative if you asked PM Johnson if he still thinks it is just the flu? Let’s see the information after the summer of 2021 when I hope we are in the home stretch. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      25 June 2020 @ 10:16
      There have been thousands of completed experiments in gravity both Newtonian and Einsteinian. DLS
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    24 June 2020 @ 22:32
    Great conversation—thank you both.
  • TV
    Tyrell V.
    24 June 2020 @ 18:43
    I am tracking a massive daily Gartley butterfly on S&P - its beautiful... ready for leg C! I plotted this on 1 Apr... It is incredible;e how these play out..
  • JB
    John B.
    24 June 2020 @ 17:45
    Bubblelicious!! What a great term! :)
  • MR
    Michael R.
    24 June 2020 @ 10:40
    "Looking good Billy-Ray" - Almost fell of my chair!!!! - Hilarious!!! Ash, your supposed to say "Feeling good Louis"!!!! Need more Soul there Ash!
    • MM
      Mark M.
      24 June 2020 @ 16:25
      Completely agree. Ed's been on fucking fire lately.
  • DH
    David H.
    24 June 2020 @ 14:27
    David S., if you take a break I will miss your very informative comments too.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 16:14
      Thanks. I enjoy RVTV. It helps me understand our world better. The possible change in format was just a suggestion. Many people prefer the way it is. I will just be more selective. Every presentation is not for everyone. DLS
  • KB
    Kris B.
    24 June 2020 @ 09:31
    It's: 'Looking good Billy Ray' 'feeling good Louis!'.... But appreciate the reference. Nice work with the vid again guys.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    24 June 2020 @ 09:30
    BTW, three of the Wirecard's board directors are Austrian, it has always been looking suspicious to me.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:56
    I know that RVTV is going through hell getting all the specials ready for the Crypto Gathering. After the dust settles a little, I would like some thought about having more guests on the daily briefing to give broader perspectives on the markets. This was done before with great success. Both Mr. Bennington and Mr. Harrison are excellent interviewers. Of course, by popular demand, I want to see Mr. Pal on the Daily Briefing once a week. I also like the current introductions about specific situations in the markets. Best of luck with the Crypto Gathering! DLS
    • DH
      David H.
      24 June 2020 @ 02:28
      I like the way this has evolved. Ed and Ash seem to provide more substance than just a couple of good interviewers. I see Ash as a very well-informed journalist who does an excellent job of interviewing Ed and contributing to Ed’s presentation. Ed does a great job of articulated complex relevant points clearly and succinctly. The long form interviews with others are great but those are provided regularly in other segments. Of course I also look forward to the Friday meeting with Raoul Pal. It helps me get my bearings.
    • DH
      David H.
      24 June 2020 @ 02:34
      I would also add that I like seeing Roger Hirst on these briefings.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 02:43
      David H. - Glad to get your feedback. If you will recall, Mr. Harrison and Mr. Bennington did shorter interviews within the Daily Briefing to give each other a break and add different perspectives for us. When I listened to recent briefings, I could have scripted much of the thoughts and discussions myself. I would not have all the details. If RVTV believes the present format is best, then there are plenty of other RVTV presentations for me to watch. Like I said, I am happy both ways. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 08:02
      I am glad that people commented and liked the Daily Briefing as is. It is good feedback. I am behind on "In Search of Lost Time." I can use the time productively there. DLS
  • JN
    James N.
    24 June 2020 @ 07:58
    Ed Harrison en fuego today - Wirecard, tech valuations, $ - looking good, Louis! Thanks to Ash, Ed & the team.
  • FS
    Florian S.
    24 June 2020 @ 07:53
    Great recap. The more I watch Ed Harrison the more impressed I am...dude, you are killing it every single time! Amazing to see this combination of incredible smarts paired with your fact-based, non-emotional assessments. Outstanding reporting!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    24 June 2020 @ 07:27
    Rv daily briefing is the best! Don't change it, don't fix it. Its not broken. Louie and Billy Ray are my buds that keep me sane in the rona lockdown.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    24 June 2020 @ 07:05
    Ed Harrison thank you for commenting Roach's article. But I ask what is the price for endless QE? It must be inflation even if the dollar doesn't crash, I hope you may comment more on this, there is no free lunch
  • OM
    Owen M.
    24 June 2020 @ 04:21
    feeling good Louis!
  • pk
    philip k.
    24 June 2020 @ 03:33
    Wirecard Asia Pacific founded in Singapore in 2007 was a big generator of funds and a well known site to launder money. To me it’s a big blow to Singapore, of the kind of banking secrecy it has been pushing to compete with Switzerland, HK and China.
  • BB
    Bob B.
    24 June 2020 @ 01:16
    Remember "animal spirits" are based on fear. FOMO switches to "SELL, SELL EVERYTHING" almost instantly!
    • RW
      Robert W.
      24 June 2020 @ 02:50
      Old timers used to call it GMI (get me in) to GMO (get me out) when calling their broker. :)
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:36
    While I dont disagree the premise of a W shape recovery or L shape recovery since fundamental are very weak, I wonder whether its worth discounting human behavior's reaction to COVID. I have observed a pretty reckless DGAF mentality during and post states reopening which I think is priced in as pent up demand. This is where I would challenge the Fed printing jobs/fundamentals view. The onset of 1) Fed liquidity, 2) election cycle, 3) FOMO performance chasing, 4) investors looking pass 2020 fundamentals, 5) fewer frictions in capital markets (i.e. getting a loan online) ... I believe counter many of the bearish views. On the bankruptcy front, which we view as the beginning of that pronounced second leg down, we haven't seen a lot of bankruptcy announcements just yet. This will be important because now all companies i.e. airlines are using all sorts of creative angles to shore up liquidity, essentially buying themselves time. Just something to think about as we weigh counter arguments
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 01:02
      When the market does not appear to be running on fundamentals, I am not sure the shape of a possible future recovery matters a great deal in daily trading. We are in a money/momentum market for now. DLS
    • mB
      marc B.
      24 June 2020 @ 01:28
      Some sectors are overbought other underbought. Tech dollars will eventually leave for better setups. This is a daters market not a marry & have kids one! 🤷‍♂️🤪
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:36
    Ed indicates that he was reading a German newspaper today.... do you know anything about Ed Harrison? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.
    • jR
      james R.
      24 June 2020 @ 00:45
      why don’t u ask him out on a date?
    • mB
      marc B.
      24 June 2020 @ 01:26
      Holy smokes. That’s quite the resume. I’m fortunate to learn from a wise man!
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    24 June 2020 @ 01:10
    I watch this show every night. This is among the very best thus far. Fabulous.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:32
    I think what Ash, Ed and other contributors are missing is that people are realizing this virus does not deserve the same amount of fear that it warranted in March and April when the world was bombarded with images of health practitioners covered in body suits treating people, crazy death rate projections and various overblown models. This is a virus that is very harmful for older people and people with certain underlying health issues. For the majority it is like a flu experience. Please taper the talking about this virus as if its still March and we have very little understanding, very little data, and a whole lot of unknown fear.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 June 2020 @ 01:08
      Fear is a protective emotion. I am having trouble reacting appropriately with my current level of fear. We need to open the economy, but we still need to fear the virus until we can cure it better or get a vaccine. DLS
  • RL
    Robert L.
    24 June 2020 @ 01:07
    Trading Places is a classic. One of the best lines of the movie. But come on guys. The lines are “Looking good Billie Ray. Feeling good Lewis.” Keep up the great work each day. I watch religiously.
  • MA
    Matt A.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:54
    You both got it wrong. It's "Looking good, Billy Ray." - "Feeling good, Lewis!" :)
  • sw
    stefan w.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:15
    Ash B: fantastic quote from you in today's video.... "there's a critical distinction to be made.. the notion that the slowdown, the recession, isn't caused by.. animal spirits.. it's caused by the damage the virus is doing to the economy itself.. there is just an inherent contraction that's going to occur in economic activity as a consequence of the PHYSICAL implications of the pandemic." Re Stephen Roach.. I've been following him for ~20 years and in my books he started losing credibility around 15 years ago, when he got promoted to Asia Chairman at Morgan Stanley. Since around then in my opinion he became distracted becoming one of wall street's principal influencers on the rise of China. While he's provided very important context, the race-horse blinders seem to be on pretty tight and he often comes across as captive. S Roach's former deputy, Stephen Jen, has since those early days pursued a career much more laser focused on global FX, and I think it's worth noting that he politely disagrees with his former boss. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-18/the-dollar-smile-will-zip-from-one-side-to-the-other-jen-says
  • PR
    Prashanth R.
    24 June 2020 @ 00:04
    You guys should provide the cast option on the app so we can easily cast to our TVs
  • GS
    Gary S.
    23 June 2020 @ 23:21
    german corporates have been involved in bribery and corruption for decades, nothing new here
    • DT
      David T.
      23 June 2020 @ 23:24
      Germans in a way are like all others, normal
  • GS
    Gary S.
    23 June 2020 @ 23:21
    a
  • hz
    herbert z.
    23 June 2020 @ 23:20
    bit more than just a "blaues auge" :)
  • DT
    David T.
    23 June 2020 @ 23:13
    If pandemic can not deflate this bubble, what can? War? Market wouldn't care about war either.
  • jR
    james R.
    23 June 2020 @ 23:02
    drinking game: take a shot of ur favorite spirit every time Ed works a 3+ syllable German word into the convo
  • JB
    John B.
    23 June 2020 @ 22:39
    Lewis!!!
  • CS
    Cody S.
    23 June 2020 @ 22:37
    Always great content from these two!