Comments
Transcript
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RSLogically I understand Raoul, Ash, Ed thesis that the Fed can solve a liquidity event but not an insolvency event. However, I have not heard this discussed: -- “THIS Fed has shown no restraint, no boundaries, what stops them from continuously backstopping junk debt which would continue allowing current insolvent companies to remain liquid. Meaning this Fed has already kept insolvent companies alive, what stops them from continuing to kick that can for years, a decade even?”
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JDJust wanted to give you guys kudos for everything to date since the start of the DB’s- you all (+Roger) have been such an integral part of my daily routine it feels like u are my friends! Anyhow thx for the great conversations and please keep it up!👍
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ERGreat show guys.Call me sad but RVDB is one of the highlights of my day...such great insight....and I love the humor. I saw two pieces of news yesterday that I thought you might have touched on. First is the default situation in Lebanon. Could this be the first of the dominoes? Second was a piece about the majority of UK High St retailers not paying their 3Q rent....possibly another canary in the coal mine?
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BSHey RV team, have you got any comment on not airing "lengthy debate on mmt" by Jim Richards with one of the advocates of MMT? Jim tweeted you refused to air it, and yet there has been no answer whatsoever.
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MII heard that James Rickards had a conversation about MMT with some well known MMT representative. I also heard that RV doesnt want to publish the interview. Im asking WHY?
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JAAsh: “Ed, what are you looking at?” Ed: “Not that plant behind me” for at least 2 weeks!
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FLI'd like to hear more commentary on the Fed's restriction on bank buybacks and dividends announced today
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KVI think these conversations would be better without the covid-19 commentary. The epidemiology is inconsistent and incomplete and attempting to build a case as to why an earlier lockdown would have saved more lives is not a factual statement at this time.
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MAHow could you guys mess this up twice in a row... :face_palm: It's "Looking good, Billy Ray" "Feeling good, Lewis"
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GBWhat type of shirt is Nick wearing? Could put affiliate links in the description, just an idea
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RCI think Ed is more European than Roger Hirst 😂
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PCEd, in principle the W-recovery is a fact according to your definition because there is nothing that can stop the surge in hospitalizations, even if the impacted states go in complete lock-down today. There is a delay between a peak in cases and a peak in hospitalizations of about two weeks. The question remains how this 2nd wave impacts the markets. It may give the markets a scare when situation suddenly worsens but it is likely followed by another boost due to "stimilus hopes", Fed QE and increased stimulus down the road. The market started turning in March when QE infinity was announced and never looked back. The reopening narrative might be responsible for the rotation in cyclical stocks but did actually impact the market overall? Maybe the market will not experience a dip due to a second wave at all? I am not sure but I think we need to see a policy error or a spike in defaults before a repricing of high yield and equity markets is needed to face reality. Btw, not sure if you are big fan of the Reds but congrats for the title! Did you watch it during the interview? ;-) I don't think so because otherwise you would have shown a scary face when KDB scored that amazing free kick :-))
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SWEd's gone right down in my estimation being a Liverpool fan.
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RRWhile there is plenty of news about jobless claims and rates, I haven’t heard much about temporary or permanent salary reductions. I have friends across multiple industries that have 20% or greater temporary salary reductions. I noticed this much more than I noticed outright unemployment around me. I would enjoy an analysis about how these salary reductions factor in.
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GHIn Barton Biggs' book, Wealth, War and Wisdom, in a very short paragraph, he explains the US' Post-War Blues in 1946-49. Post WWII, the US went through such a period. The EU had poor growth, or so did the rest of the world and the enormous war time US stimulus came to an end. This resulted in the Dow, having rallied sharply, then fell 20% in a month and remained stagnant for a couple of years as the US adjusted to lower stimulus. The massive stimulus first resulted in 18% inflation and then 9% inflation in '46 and '47 respectively, but then deflation. This reminds me of what can happen now.
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JSCaptain America!!
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ABEvery time I see the chart of US jobless numbers I see myself using that chart teaching History class in 20 years time. It’s like the chart of Reichmarks/gold from 1920s Germany.
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mfI was looking back at real gdp growth in the 2000s and notice there was a quarter of positive gdp growth within the defined boundaries of the 08-09 recession (i think it was q2 2008). If its one quarter of growth before more decline it is effectively one recession, no? Seems like splitting hairs to define it as two recessions, especially if permanent layoffs are steadily increasing throughout.
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SBhigh quality stuff right there
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SSGreat RVDB today. Glad you went over time. I've been trying to figure out what the picture of Ash and Ed reminds me of and why it keeps making me laugh. Then I got it. All you wrestling fans will get this. Its the Dudley Boyz. Bubba Ray Dudley (Ash) and D-Von Dudley (Ed). I wonder which tag team you would like to take on, Perhaps the PPT, Mnuchin and Powell. 🤣🤣
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NLgood stuff but I can't see long term surge of sales in external video cards. Most people will simply buy laptops with dedicated video cards. Either way - Long Nvidia and AMD.
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BEThis I should scary: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
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ADAnother great DB, so does everyone get a free lunch, to keep the recovery going? With all the forbearances listed why should they stop, if spending on the reopening is the recovery then all is well? Canada's Gov't now has Corona cash, plus EI benefit top ups and a reopening, meanwhile the big six banks have billions in mortgage forbearance. However the S&PTSX is up, so all is well. Thanks again Ash and Ed, amazing insight.
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CCDear Ed, #YNWA
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PKLOL "last name like Bennington. Shame on you!" Good one
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WMmaybe it's still a V shaped recovery, but the bottom of the V won't be until 2025
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JDIts great to hear you guys deal head on with the consequences what the Fed is doing. I wouldn't have a problem with a lot of the Feds actions assuming it was paired with the taxes, regulations, and social safety net seen in Western Europe; but given that most of America is expected to survive in an unforgiving free market environment this feels so wrong. As an investor I feel like the play is will this provoke a popular backlash or not? Higher taxes, tech regulations, and increased social spending will probably crush asset prices no matter what the Fed does. If this is GFC 2.0 and there are no consequences to bailouts maybe this train keeps chugging along.
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WMthe virus was supposed to fade away in the summer....oh well at least it's mostly young people getting the new infections, right?? The stock markets: What me worry??
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RDInteresting commentary on gold. For the TA fans amongst us, check out the GDX, HUI and BGMI, which have or are in the process of taking out major resistance levels after establishing a significant multi year base. Naturally spot gold has already shown the way, which is typical of a bull move, but now the major miners are clearly indicating gold miners are at the very beginning of a major bull market. Obviously the economic monetary and fiscal backdrop supports the move, which is more likely to get worse rather than better, despite the inflated equity market indicating otherwise. Discounting genuine thematic opportunities.
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MTI think there is a lot of conflation of the shape of a recovery and what exactly is being recovered.... is it GDP, which drives the recession, or the stock market, which is in la la land.