Comments
Transcript
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CHAnother thing, I have heard nothing recently about fact of a second wave of coronavirus infections, the resumption of lockdowns and restriction of activities which would necessarily follow, and the effect in the stock market and possibly even the irrational equity markets. After the massive public gatherings of Memorial Day weekend followed by those of the protests this last week, clock is taking for second wave, not this fall, but probably July. The only way that this would not occur would be if the biology of the virus has changed so that it is less transmissible, or virulent. It is rather amazing how the public has become so complacent about this and just a few weeks time.
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DSThe main reason, as I understand it, for locking down for COVID-19 was hospital beds and ventilators – remember Italy. It is possible that in 1968 people just treated the Hong Kong flu like the regular flu and died at home. (There were 100,000 deaths in the US with the Hong Kong Flu.) If there is a second wave, we probably will not lock down in the US because we did such a bad job on the first one. The smart old people and people with co-morbidities will stay at home. The younger people can keep the economy going and hope they do not die of the virus. Sweden accidentally did this as most of the of the deaths were old people in nursing homes. DLS
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JSDear @Ash, I love your segments and your analysis, you're an excellent interviewer. But please please please stop with the awkward and contrived referencing of other videos in the library. It is so obvious that your doing this since recently as a new template to drive more viewers to the site, but it just comes across as forced and unhelpful. You basically serve RV with this, not us. We're all adults and have paid our dues already, so if we are curious about other content in the library, we will find it. Apart from that, keep up the good work! :)
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PSI assume Mr Correa is referring to this article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext
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DLWorkers see working from home as a chance to move from a crowded, expensive city to a cheaper and possibly more pleasant small town or rural area (or maybe even the Cayman Islands!). But from a corporate point of view, if remote working is feasible, why not off-shore 10-20% of white collar jobs to India or Thailand at one tenth the cost? Off-shoring office jobs seems to me to be the real trend here. How deflationary would that be?
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DRFor those of us holding TLT, its down somewhat (in my case 5% now), time to get out? Or do we expect it to recover?
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TNQuestion regarding Bitcoin which seems to be touted as the macroeconomic panacea for all the central bank actions to prevent a collapse of the current economic and asset structure. If a government loses control of its currency it loses power over its citizens and economy . Therefore governments will do everything under their control to prevent their citizens acting freely according to their own interests. At the moment Bitcoin has a market capitalization of <$200 billion so is small beer. Say it goes up 30x. Then it will be a real problem for many governments esp in smaller countries. To control Bitcoin ie > 51% of the hashrate would likely take an investment of 100's to 100's of millions of dollars which for a government is peanuts. Can Bitcoin be protected from the actions of a determined state actor? Maybe the protocol should be changed to ration hashrate for a particular country.
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CHIn general I enjoy your daily commentary. I think however, that you are way to conservative in your comments. Why cannot you call out the US equity market for the insane madness which it is? Feel free to sample from the abbreviated lexicon below: Bubble Death of Capitalism FOMO Gaslighting by Powell/Fed Mega-irrational exuberance Wall Street/Main Street chasm Rent Seeking Regulatory Capture (lack of) Skin in the Game Financialization of the Economy Financial Repression You're Welcome :)
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SNCase for Gold down: Inflation. Interest rate up. So, gold down. (Roger's point today) Deflation. Dollar strength, So, gold down. Liquidation. Gold sell off to get $. Case for Gold up: Inflation. Dollar weakness. So, gold up. Deflation. Insolvency. Safe haven in risk off env. So, gold up. Liquidation. Fed goes Brrr. So, gold up.
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JS1968 overview was extremely interesting - well done Nick. Have to wonder if these mass gatherings/protests will be the second wave trigger.
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FSplease stop referring to your conversation offline, its makes me feel left out.
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TMHow do you guys completely ignore the impact of the protests, rioting, and looting? It's amazing how most investors are completely ignoring the implications of this. Society is clearly changing and the headwinds for investors will continue to grow.
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XMBrilliant these chaps. I’m intrigued by these emergent shifts in the commercial real estate space. I believe it was Mr. Pal who mentioned that the WeWork model may actually be a viable one post Covid-19. I’m rather more interested in these mixed residential developments with expanded office space and reduced parking garages. Something to think about.
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SGI know markets tend to be forward looking but it's a BIG call that the deepest part of the recession is over.
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DTI don't hear you guys talking about retesting lows anymore?
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BSToday was an interesting day for market internals, thanks for the commentary!
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jRi’d love to hear a Zoltan interview discussing the state of the Repo rescue.