the scamdemic is over

The second wave is already going on (excluding effects from Memorial Day weekend). Look at Alabama, Arizona, the Carolinas, ... even if you adjust new case count for increase testing. Texas reversing the trend meaningfully as well in the last few days. Numbers will likely not be pretty in the coming 1.5-2 weeks

The testing and the number of cases information have become politically controlled to promote political agendas. This is not new. It is hard to really trust the data. This makes planning and control difficult. DLS

The next time Sweden will do a much better job of protecting their elderly. So far there is no evidence that Sweden is developing the herd immunity faster. The Swedish economy is expected to drop by 7% this year. I am not sure how much the domestic economy was helped by not shutting down. We would need to see some analysis separating the economic declines between exports and domestic consumptions. DLS

Johannes S. - Mr. Bennington is making an easy reference to the presentations he believes are relevant. Not everyone is as thorough as you are. Mr. Bennington, please, please, please do what you think is best. DLS

Yes, that's the one!

I think you discount the inefficiency of people working in different time zones.

Some companies probably will look into that, and it could bring down cost on the type of work that is less complex. I am not mentioning that because I think the other countries are not intelligent, but in complex work you need social interaction, soft skills. Having similar culture and timezones and language is making cooperation and soft skill much easier. Other factor is that many companies have tried to save money by offshoring but they usually find out after a year or so that it is actually more expensive and slower. Not to forget that by offshoring, you are directly vulnerable, because off shore are not employees and not under your management and they can be shifted out and upskilling of new time has to be done. Also, covid 19 showed many companies that offshoring a lot is deadly for a company. India was experiencing full lock down and no one were allowed to their work. That is translating to that your off shore team is not available. Many other reasons why offshoring is bad idea in many cases, but this post already too long :).

Problem with crypto coins is that they are not stable in price. No one will use them as a currency while flying up and down.

Disagree entirely. Such a small market cap at the moment results in huge volatility because dumping billions in the market moves the price. If the market was a similar size to gold billions in and out results in smaller swings in % amount. The general population has a mentality built in measuring stick (the dollar) but everything is relative. I was in btc 2015 I hung on for dear life through the ups and downs not wanting to spend a satoshi. Now it’s worth a decent amount relative to what I paid for it I use btc for whatever I can day to day. I Just booked a holiday today with Travala that are now excepting crypto 🏝

Ha. Thank you.

Ah. Wrong website, think you're looking for zerohedge.com.

Marx already did that long time ago and he was proved wrong.

This is related to Roger's comment, so I will say it here. My observation is that the bigger the central banking liquidity injection, the higher the re-traceement. (Large injection in the US, indices almost retraced in full. Lighter injection in the EU, smaller re-tracement.)

My point is, there is a plausible explanation for every price action, every though those explanations may be contradictory.

Gold will be strong with either inflation or deflation, including stagflation, but not the middle ground. Raoul made this point in one of his briefings recently.

Won't be surprised by gold selling off for more than a couple of weeks!

You need to add the real growth, real yields, an EM demand to understand gold price A steepening yield curve implies increasing US real growth expectations. Combine that with rising real yields (due to falling inflation), as well as subdued EM demand, gold will get a swift kick in the crotch

Agreed.I have not seen this analysis of the prior pandemics anywhere else. Go Nick! (Also like that you're in focus and your background is not. Cool.)

lol, you are easily triggered!

Stop being correct and start making money.

Mr Market doesn't care about social agendas. It's a selfish machine.

Marx was right on capitalism but, he was wrong on the solution. There is no solution so far.

WeWork will never work. They are just intermediaries market doesn't need.

As I know you read the comments I will elaborate for a bit of context. In Australia (where I live), approximately 3 million workers' jobs are solely reliant on the record government stimulus package (Job Keeper). This is on top of over 1 million Australians that have lost their job. The stimulus is set to expire in September unless the Government extends it - which is seems increasingly likely. I would suggest that many countries are in this boat. Australia has held up surprisingly well in my opinion, both in staving off the pandemic (touch wood) but also from an economic perspective. The concern is that the risk or the pressure point has simply been transferred to September - or whenever the stimulus tap gets turned off. It might be that, as big as the shock was when the virus first hit, the real shock will be when the stimulus gets turned off. It will require a skillful government to manage this process without any lumps in economic productivity etc. And also, the political will of a "traditionally conservative" to keep spending on the nation's credit card. My 2 cents.

agreed. I think there is still worse to come here in Australia. Economically we've been doing much better than other countries so far and the rise in the iron ore price has definitely helped our economy more recently. Whenever those stimulus taps turn off its going to be a real shock. Also Australia has the highest debt to household income ratio in the world. Once the mortgage grace period is over (surely our banks can't sustainably keep this up right?), money from stimulus (if more is given) / salaries that would otherwise flow through the economy will need to go back to paying mortgages and rent. My current thesis is that our property market will be the turning point in our economy. Regardless of the stimulus given, if the natural resources sector doesn't pick up again, or drops off its going to have a huge impact on the job market. I just can't see how current property prices can be sustained in that kind of economic environment. If people start losing their jobs they will inevitably have to default on their mortgages and other debt . I also agree about your point with our politically conservative as it is the NSW government tried to pass legislation to put pay rise freezes on public servants (many of whom have been instrumental in helping our country deal with covid) and tried to bribe them with $1000 on off payments. Then basically threatened if they didn't want to accept the pay rise freezes people would lose their jobs.

Hi Sahil H, I have been an Australian housing bear for a while now - and I have been wrong. I totally underestimated the Government's (and the population for that matter) desire to keep pumping money into the housing sector. There are numerous grants available and even now, the idea that the government is going to give you $25,000 to "renovate" your house or to buy a newly constructed house is just another policy in an already long line of initiatives numerous governments have taken. I agree with you it has to eventually fall away, but they are once again throwing the kitchen sink at it. It will be interesting to see what happens when the banks lift their mortgage moratorium, too. Without being too crude though, as a counter point, most of the jobs that have been lost are in retail and hospitality. A lot of professional service firms (lawyers, accountants etc) have had their pay reduced by 20% or so, but the overwhelming majority of job losses are low-income based jobs. Do those people own houses with mortgages? Granted some will and I understand their inability to pay the rent will see valuations turn downward in property... but is it really going to be huge? I don't know. I never bought the idea that a 30% drop was on the cards, simply because it has basically never happened in Australia. Retail/Commercial property, though... Different story. I think you'll see a considerable pull back in valuations. Less demand for space (working from home etc) and also, the pandemic has sped up the death of bricks and mortar retail. It will never *die* but it is going to significantly reduce in size. Interesting times.

Flip-Flopping.

why would they, they were wrong , they are wrong 80% of the time

And make so much money when they are right the other 20%

Very well said PG.

Their views are evolving. Market internals are suggesting more than a bear market bounce, per Roger's commentary

They are calling it as they see it. It is difficult to call a momentum rally as you do not know when the flow money will change. If you want to believe in this momentum market, put all your chips in. Time will tell if we ever get back to a valuation model. DLS

Julian has been discussing liquidity driven reflation view since the end of March low -- he almost called the bottom. But he appears mostly on RV Pro. Useful to learn different thought processes and reach one's own conclusions. It is a matter of timing. Raoul's views played out very well before Covid and till March low, especially the bond trade. His (and most of the daily briefing's views) can still play out in the longer term going forward as insolvency accelerates. Time well tell.