Daily Briefing – June 5, 2020

Published on
June 5th, 2020
Duration
43 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 5, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: June 5th, 2020 • Duration: 43 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul's interview with Gerard Minack.

Comments

  • AB
    Amir B.
    7 June 2020 @ 03:50
    It is always beyond me when people press the dislike button, I can understand if somebody disagrees with the views but to dislike is either ignorance or the competitors...
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:47
      What I really don’t like about it is when they praise their own platform for minutes on end. We know RV is great, that’s why we pay for it. I don’t pay them though for endless self reference and self praise. It’s manipulative. I wish they just toned that part down.
  • ac
    anthony c.
    8 June 2020 @ 17:44
    Real Vision should interview Aswath Damodaran who teaches corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University. His viral market update: making sense of the market, valuation of S&P 500 on Youtube is not only enlightening but also so well supported by his research. He is the only expert I have heard that can logically explains the disconnect between current lofty market valuation and the real world financial crisis. Check out his latest Youtube segement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cARjvs9fns
  • SK
    Shiu K.
    6 June 2020 @ 04:58
    I wish Real Vision would've told us to buy this counter trend move. That was a big miss.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      6 June 2020 @ 06:10
      If you're reliant on others to be told when to take action you will be permanently frustrated
    • JV
      Jan V.
      6 June 2020 @ 08:25
      Tony Greer appeared a few weeks ago saying he was long based on ST technicals. There is no real vision view. You have to filter out info based on your own investment / trading style.
    • DH
      Dabangg H.
      6 June 2020 @ 09:55
      RV tends to be permabear on stocks for many years now.
    • JL
      James L.
      6 June 2020 @ 11:45
      Mike Green and Dan Tapiero were both fairly bullish if I remember correctly.
    • VD
      Vincenzo D.
      6 June 2020 @ 18:41
      Kyle Bass interviewd by Ron, said there was going to be an ATH in the next 12 months. Other bullish people on RV as well, see commet above.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      6 June 2020 @ 23:54
      RVDB does not equal RV
    • JB
      James B.
      7 June 2020 @ 05:11
      A lot of people called this rally: Tony Greer, Hugh Hendry, Dan Tapiero, Mike Green...
    • SK
      Shiu K.
      7 June 2020 @ 16:13
      It's not that I was relying on anyone to tell me what to do. RV was relentlessly bearish and "doom loop" for past 2 months so although some guests called it, the narrative from RV proper was downright fearful (including RVDB). So you can't tell me that RV didn't have a viewpoint and some guests nailed it and therefore RV was balanced. RV did have a narrative and a viewpoint they were espousing, just look at some of the early RVDB episodes (it was like they were talking about a zombie apocalypse). I found it amusing that Raoul just shrugged and said hey man, it's the trend traders that were right and I'm looking for secular turning points. Well, those trend traders just made 45% off the bottom on the S&P from the March low. It's OK, I'm here for the conversation. I'm not complaining. Carry on mate, keep doing what you're doing.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 16:37
      I agree with you. I think Raoul (for obvious reasons) has a lot of influence over the RV employees. I think RVDB had the unintended consequence of siloing everyone into the bear camp. I think it would be nice for RV to take on someone of the caliber of Raoul that is structurally bullish, and adding him to RVDB, or something of the like. Alternatively, split RVDB into two segments, one being the Bull Corner Report, the other being the Bear Corner Report, and they duke it out / challenge each other's theses and hold each other accountable. Right now I agree that RVDB is kind of an echo chamber. Would help audience to diversify.
  • hw
    harry w.
    8 June 2020 @ 15:36
    Ahh 'panoply' - great word! Such a smooth talker.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    6 June 2020 @ 05:44
    ok Raoul, you are misunderstanding Bitcoin as a productivity storage for electricity. This is not correct. I've been on Bitcoin since 2013 and was a Genesis founder of Ethereum. Bitcoin works under something called POW system. Proof of work system. This was the only known method at the time to guarantee Byzantine Fault Tolerance. Essentially, ensuring that your transactions are valid. However, this is mostly due to code inefficiency and due to simply having lack of better coding infrastructure. I repeat, Bitcoin does not need this huge electricity to mine and secure blocks. This is the ultimate flaw of bitcoin as it stands and I hope they get rid of this in Time. The world of blockchain is moving into something called proof of stake where you and I can stake the Bitcoins we have to allow someone else to make the transfer. Then we get paid tiny fees of that transaction. That's our perpetual yield potential. It's great! This method allows for lightening fast transaction speed while also ensuring Byzantine fault tolerance. So the wasted electricity of POW system cannot be called productivity. It is code inefficiency. The most promising blockchains have been working super hard in the last 3 years to transition into proof of stake system. Ethereum 2.0 is all about that. EOS, Cardano and Hashgraph use next generation systems to ensure transactions are safe and hack proof. You need to get this right about crypto if you are going to recommend to your viewers. I've been in this space for longer than I should and sometimes when I'm listening to you talk about crypto and making recommendation, I wish you looked into this more and really really understood it. Give it a try! Start from why the Fu** is mining needed? How are people currently thinking outside the box to solve this problem that wastes tremendous amount of Energy. What is Ethereum, EOS, Cardano and Hashgraph, Tron etc doing to fix this. What does Ethereum does that Bitcoin doesn't. This space needs to be understood and not speculated on.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      6 June 2020 @ 09:52
      https://medium.com/@vic.blaga_30436/why-proof-of-stake-cannot-work-df00da6b1804
    • DF
      David F.
      6 June 2020 @ 10:11
      thank you. worth thinking about. your level of experience and information is way beyond most of us. so we need coaches like you to helps translate the science to the day to day meaning for a rookie in this area. i am grateful for your concern and admonishment.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 June 2020 @ 11:58
      I fully understand all of this but that is not my point re Bitcoin as a store of value in converted electricity.
    • AT
      Anthony T.
      6 June 2020 @ 15:14
      Proof of Stake allocates block voting power proportional to how 'rich' (i.e. coin-owning) you are. Granted, voting for invalid blocks will slash the reward, but I don't see major widely adopted blockchains that uses PoS at the moment (i.e. I don't consider EOS/Cardano/Hashgraph as widely adopted). I think we need to wait for ETH2.0 to come out and see its widespread adoption & proof that no rich actor can game the block production system before we can say PoS truly works. Proof of Work, on the other hand, gives you sound security. Borrowing Andreas Antonopolous' words, it is thermodynamically impossible to reverse transaction from old blocks and outmine other miners in the world - no actor simply have enough energy/power to do that. (disclaimer: I work at a cryptocurrency exchange in Southeast Asia)
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      6 June 2020 @ 20:28
      Aneil P, calm down and watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP63dTY_7j0
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      7 June 2020 @ 09:33
      Andreas Antonopolous who has also been in the space a long time would disagree with you. Bitcoin has the network effect. Let Ethereum be the test bed for Bitcoin, I'm all for it. If it makes sense for security and the integrity of Bitcoin then it might happen but there are real reasons why it hasn't so far.
    • AS
      Atul S.
      8 June 2020 @ 10:03
      I agree that bitcoin is not stored electricity. But you could argue it's transfer/storage of low entropy (useful work). The decentralisation guarantees of POS are less convincing to me that POW. POS does not have this entropy property. POW is like buying your financee an engagement ring to show commitment. Arguing for buying something otherwise-useful instead defeats the purpose. It's useful because it's useless. POS is more like equity structure, vulnerable to hostile takeover. I question if Eth will ever make POS work. Mining is needed firstly to bootstrap a fair distribution system. POS does not give that benefit.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    6 June 2020 @ 07:09
    Where else is the money supposed to go but equities? We've passive indexed everything, treasury yield is non existent, pensions have to find yield somewhere, debt is exploding and the FED is printing at a rate. Won't fuel the gold vs btc discussion except to say that neither seems logical. Where will it all end up? I'd venture that the U.S. is going to kick this can so far down the road your head will spin. Personal debt jubilee, infrastructure spending program that will make the stimulus look like a trip to McDonald's with a side order of inflation.
    • JC
      John C.
      8 June 2020 @ 08:59
      They are going to print to infinity. Eventually the inflation will catch up but that could be years away. Almost every western nation and China in the same boat.
  • JK
    Jake K.
    6 June 2020 @ 18:44
    “Chick a fil” - loved that moment and broader point
    • JC
      John C.
      8 June 2020 @ 08:47
      Heh yeah caught that as well. Good stuff.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    7 June 2020 @ 11:01
    bit concerned that riots and protests are spreading as fast as CV and yet nothing is mentioned about the political situation and its potential affects on markets
    • JC
      John C.
      8 June 2020 @ 08:46
      Also why did most western governments act so slowly to shut down, then so slowly to reopen? And why did so many US cities allow the 'protests' to take place almost immediately when they are effectively superspreader events whereas just days before they (along with the media) were saying 'stay safe, stay home' and it was dangerous to go out? Unemployment is off the charts as is the political propaganda right now which is interesting given its an election year in the US. And the cops that beat and ultimately killed the victim were a multiracial group that had a history with Mr. Floyd (who tested positive for coronavirus BTW). So many things wrong right now with how TPTB are handling things.
  • JC
    John C.
    8 June 2020 @ 08:27
    Great video. Raoul is always a great read on what is going on. Regarding the protests and riots, I think the point needs to be made that many of these riots have turned violent or have a manacing social justice spirt about them and that BLM have resorted to violence in the past and used almost any situation to escalate. They are not the 'good guys' here and are seeding chaos and division within society, fully supported by most of the mainstream media. African-American journalist Larry Elder does a vwry good job of offering up counterpoints to mainstream media narratives right now in this video which I think is very insightful: https://www.facebook.com/12503116997/posts/10157916222571998/?vh=e
  • SH
    STEVE H.
    8 June 2020 @ 03:43
    I did not see the dog in the vidio...
  • PN
    Pierre N.
    6 June 2020 @ 05:01
    I really like the improved camera and lighting quality, but the angle is a bit odd...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 June 2020 @ 11:58
      Yes, it sits in front of the screen which makes it difficult to see Ash. We are still iterating and improving but its a first and quite big step
    • MH
      Michael H.
      6 June 2020 @ 13:09
      It does look better, but I'll miss the random glimpses of your dogs in the wider frame. :) I often wish I had your place as my zoom background!
    • IO
      Igor O.
      7 June 2020 @ 17:21
      New setup is appreciated. Sound is much better. Can't see dogs and pool table though.
  • EA
    Emil A.
    6 June 2020 @ 18:06
    A note regarding the restaurants in Europe, I am living in Germany and was this week for one night in the Netherlands. The bars and the restaurants in both countries are packed, no social distancing(rules are there) and the vibe is as if nothing happened. On the other hand at the hotel we stayed we spoke with one of the employees and she said that normally at this time of the year the hotel is full but not now. Anyway the borders were opened this week for the first time.
    • RL
      Remmelt L.
      7 June 2020 @ 16:29
      The borders never closed between the Netherlands and Germany. Only you get the advised to go back. When I was in my town (Netherlands) not a lot of people where there in restaurants and bars. The most popular bar only had 20% revenue. But whether is everything now.
  • GC
    Gino C.
    6 June 2020 @ 22:46
    I’m concerned that RV Essential package is now just the Daily Briefing. In the past there was a much wider selection of viewing choices. I don’t know... maybe it’s just me ??
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 June 2020 @ 00:07
      Its the same - 1 piece per day plus the daily briefing, which is extra on top for free.
    • bm
      brian m.
      7 June 2020 @ 00:41
      I thought the same thing, and did not like the timing of the upgraded service, but it is still great value and they are entitled to provide an upgraded service for those who are interested.
    • BB
      Benjamin B.
      7 June 2020 @ 13:37
      I used to be able to watch a lot more videos, then they made the change and everything was locked. Quit my subscription after two years due to that. You can get Disney+ and a year of Prime for less than the base subscription, it may be a different type of content, but in terms of what you get (now) its no longer a compelling value.
  • JI
    Jose I.
    7 June 2020 @ 09:00
    I found this conversation very disappointing. Maybe I had too high expectations. I was expecting that in the first appearance of RV thought leader after the three week “Recession: What’s next?”, Raoul would wrap that up with his learnings from the three weeks. Updating or fine tuning his framework and his thoughts after these three weeks. It seems he resigned from defending his framework or further reasoning about it to help the RV audience better understand was it is going on. Instead we got an unprepared chat over coffee with obvious points (e.g., there is a lot of uncertainty, secular shift towards digital…), points not supported with facts/figures (e.g., liquidity is going to be sucked out the marked by new issuance, Germany restaurants are down). Most things have not gone so far in the direction Raoul pointed towards (commodity prices up, dollar down, bond market indicating the avoidance of deflation and towards a low inflation environment…) but we need to understand his framework as a long term play. All the recent moves can obviously change and go in the direction Raul says. What could be alternative scenarios? why stimulus has to stop soon? They could be extended for long? A Fed b/s of 50 Tn in a few years? (as long as rates are 0 that would be possible, no?). It would be great have Raoul to talk about all these!
  • bm
    brian m.
    7 June 2020 @ 01:57
    We need an electronic form of toilet paper......Fast...
  • AJ
    Adam J.
    6 June 2020 @ 23:56
    Can you comment on Bitcoin next week?
  • mf
    massimo f.
    6 June 2020 @ 18:24
    This narrative that its over for industrials is infuriating. Its like in 20 years we’ll all be living in little huts in the forest like the Unabomber. It makes no sense. I happen to think people will consume more goods that, correct me if I am wrong, will have to be made in an industrial capacity. GE itself may be cooked, but who is going to produce all the crap amazon sells? Someone help me. Most likely it wont be china, but it wont be industrials either? Is everything gonna be 3D printed? But even that is industry... alchemy?
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      6 June 2020 @ 20:25
      I think a good example might be SpaceX, which is much more advanced and inexpensive than traditional companies in their industry?
  • KT
    Kay T.
    6 June 2020 @ 12:31
    A few points of observations and just sharing my thought process thus far, would be happy to hear what others think: I find the narrative of the Robinhood traders as a major catalyst for the rally for the past few months a pretty lazy one that most media outlets have latched on to. Firstly if you look at all major equity indices through the world from a cursory glance ie eurostox, FTSE, MXJP, EEM and even the vanguard world index all the short term momentum indicators turned positive approximately early April and the positive trend has accelerated much faster the past week just as USD is weakening. Is this correlation or causation? Not sure that’s above my pay grade but that just caught my eye. Even within the US itself the sectors that have been the laggards ie financials and industrials have started breaking higher out of their resistance levels (and bear in mind these were the sectors that most fundamental bears had anchored on as the weakest links of the chain). Now if it this was just a US only/ rotation between sectors within the S&P I can buy the argument this is mostly due to the Robinhood traders but the fact that most major equity indices are breaking higher in a strong uptrend/the laggard sectors finally starting to break out above prior resistances suggests to me something larger is in play here (unless someone asserts that Robinhood traders have the ability to push every single equity index all over the world higher/each country has their own form of Robinhood platform where people are buying their own country’s equity products with their own country’s stimulus pay checks !) In my mind the most likely explanation I can think of is just pure liquidity provided by all central banks/the re-levering of equity portfolios from non fundamental players re establishing their equity exposures after the big washout in mid Mar. Is this hindsight? For sure there is an element to that. But just simplistically looking at the chart and trend, one won’t want to fight against this/be short and from what little CTA models I follow most are still net short say 10-20% in equity indices just as the VIX has been gradually falling which suggests that there is still plenty of buying from these fellows given the trend, positioning and falling of vol. From my limited understanding as vol comes off risk parity funds lever up too and given they had just puked out in mid Mar would imagine they’re far from max long equities. (Just to cite non “fundamental” buying which comes to mind am sure there are plenty more systems out there). The thing that now puzzles me is thinking about the Active equity crowd mentality, especially on the long-only front. Judging from the bearish narrative throughout this rally and also from a few anecdotal conversations with equity professionals in which some of their PMs increased their cash positions in late Apr (prudently in my mind given the uncertainty then and now), i would imagine quite a few folks are now less long vs their benchmark and since then markets have rallied much harder causing in underperformance relative to the benchmark. What do these folks do now? What would their clients do? Granted it’s only been 2 months but given most of these folks performed as badly as say the S&P on the way down but underperform on the way up ex fee-drag (so far), how do the behavioural dynamics play out there? Is it even a big deal given these guys are long only so even though they’re less long vs the benchmark they got to participate in the rally the past few months? Don’t get me wrong am reading the same fundamental news flow/narratives and listening to the great content realvision/other macro and fundamental podcasts are putting out and am sure as hell worried/uncomfortable about the disconnect between the real world and securities prices. Having said that, it does smell like the general trend still seems to be up in the short term and while all the great points brought up are valid ie possibility of a second wave, economy just not getting back to full capacity and subsequent data disappointing the question always in my mind is yes sure but from what base? Having voiced my thoughts out now am sure the market gods are going to punish me by causing a major sell off of 50% right next Monday :) But curious to hear what others have to say. Cheers and keep up the good work
    • JO
      JieHwa O.
      6 June 2020 @ 13:48
      Agreed on the 'Robinhood Traders' narrative, never really got it (As opposed to ThinkOrSwim Traders ? Or Interactive Brokers?). There are traders who make money in the long run and traders who don't. As a trader one needs to maintain a neutral head and stay ahead of the trend.
    • mf
      massimo f.
      6 June 2020 @ 18:20
      It comes from looking at the Robintrack data after robinhood reported something like 40M new accounts in march (and some amount of billions in flows, cant remember the number off the top of my head but it was 1 or 2). As soon as many companies hit their lows robinhood ownership spiked; companies like american airlines, hertz, norwegian cruise, oil stocks, etc. Basically all the ones in for a hurting. This is most evident on the genius brands stock where ownership followed the stock movement to a T, very interesting graph. Its an easy way of saying everyone and their mother thinks they are warren buffett and are gonna buy the lows of the bear market. Im sure everyone knows at least one person who has entered the market recently for the first time.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    6 June 2020 @ 14:20
    Raoul oscillating on Little Cayman again. He goes from beach side paradise to stuck on a bloody little island lol.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 June 2020 @ 18:17
      Truth.
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    6 June 2020 @ 12:03
    I think it's a bad idea to work off the assumption that stimulus can't be permanent. It's akin to real estate prices that can't fall nationally and rates that can't go negative. It's very easy to create a map that leads to UBI and MMT. With UBI, government controls employment (prices and rates). With MMT, government controls capital. One might argue the Fed can't create capital, and right now that's true, but I can easily see the day when some politician observes the debt on the treasury balance sheet and the corresponding bonds on the Feds balance sheet and says, what if we just strike a line thru that? They'll argue, no one gets hurt, capital was just created, and we go from the heart of a deflationary spiral into an inflationary utopia. Wait for it...
    • AE
      Alden E.
      6 June 2020 @ 17:12
      Yikes haha. Would this go along with a potential wipe out/clean slate of certain USD/CNY held debt?
  • JK
    Jim K.
    6 June 2020 @ 02:18
    Just a suggestion from one subscriber please do not overdo it with “coronavirus experts’ as the credibility of the “experts” has to be called into question as the economy was locked down/ ground to a halt and it now looks like either the result of incompetence or some other unknown agenda. I am not minimizing the tragedies of coronavirus, but the “experts” have frightened the hell out of the people and the economic ramifications from the likely behavioral changes will be known in due time.
    • JC
      John C.
      6 June 2020 @ 09:25
      Agree. Really have to question the 'experts'at this point. Many governors using the virus shutdowns for political purposes right now. NYC reporting no new cases yesterday. Apparently large riots and protests are fine for COVID yet funerals, weddings, beach parties are not. Something seriously wrong about how this was all handled and how we were fed misleading or false information from the beginning.
    • GH
      Gloria H.
      6 June 2020 @ 10:22
      We’ll see in about 2 weeks.
    • CT
      Chris T.
      6 June 2020 @ 16:09
      Dr. Ioannidis from Stanford whose study showed the death rate is the same as seasonal flu should be interviewed if anyone. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC3nptwY50I Someone who can at least independently analyse the data, pointing out for example the avg age of covid victim in the UK is older than UK life expectancy. Or that in England less than 2000 people without prior conditions have died. And so on... (all UK data available on ONS website)
  • DB
    Donna B.
    6 June 2020 @ 15:29
    There was much celebration of BLS 2.5 mill jobs (establishment survey). And not much questioning over why there was such a large difference with loss of 2.7 mill jobs in ADP report a few days before. Or that the new unemployment claims of 1.8 mill. And that the BLS report also showed losses in government 585k. The reconciliation is in the BLS report footnote. Jobs include persons paid but not actually at their jobs. In pre-covid times, this class of persons was probably small (vacations). But in May this class included persons being paid by employers from the PPP. Raoul mentioned this a couple of times but it was otherwise celebrated as a turnaround. It’s not. The 2.5 million is the result of the government handout!
  • JA
    Jose A.
    5 June 2020 @ 22:39
    Are u guys sure that "the stimulus is temporary"? I am not so sure.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 June 2020 @ 23:40
      Thanks for the comment, Jose. Great point. I should have been more clear. ADDITIONAL stimulus won’t be added into the system forever — in terms of continuing, new deployments of capital from the government. The $1,200 personal stimulus deposits from IRS don’t need to be paid back — making them, as you suggest, in that sense, permanent.
    • JC
      John C.
      6 June 2020 @ 09:33
      I think that is what MMT ultimately be for. Hence the question why pay taxes at this point, particularly if you cant count on the police to protect your small business or store. Social system is fraying as is the social contract between states and their citizens
    • HM
      Hazvinei M.
      6 June 2020 @ 15:21
      Ash, I don’t think it’s correct that the stimulus checks are free. I haven’t seen the recent legislation, but I believe those checks are actually a pre-refund of 2020 taxes. Hence when you do your return next year the payment is considered in your return.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    6 June 2020 @ 15:14
    Petrodollar..........Definition The origins of the petrodollar system go back to the Bretton Woods Agreement, which replaced the gold standard with the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. ... That led to the creation of the petrodollar system, where the U.S. and Saudi Arabia agreed to set oil prices in U.S. dollars.. Investopedia.....The Saudi's agreed to this system in exchange for military protection by the USA. The Americans laid out their terms. They were simple, and two-fold. 1. The Saudis must agree to price all of their oil sales in U.S. dollars only. (In other words, the Saudis were to refuse all other currencies, except the U.S. dollar, as payment for their oil exports.) 2. The Saudis would be open to investing their surplus oil proceeds in U.S. debt securities.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 June 2020 @ 13:50
    EU one and done? When has any central bank been one and done?
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 June 2020 @ 13:48
    It seems to me that the driving forces behind the market rebound are assuming that either Covid is now going away or, based on all the publicity about Covid vaccines and drugs in development, we will be able to return to normal within, say, a year. If and when the market believes that a second waive is coming, it will take a lot of wind out of the market sails. Now suppose an effective treatment (one that is proven to be effect via double blind placebo controlled studies) is found? Well then a lot more reluctance to invest in stocks will fade away. In fact, that latter possibility has a pretty good likelihood of becoming a reality by the middle of July. There is a drug currently subject to two placebo controlled double blind studies in the U.S., one study for mild to moderate symptomatic patients and one for severe to critical patients, that is due to be unblinded June 15 and the results analyzed by July 15. The reason it appears to have a good likelihood of success is that it has shown dramatic results in more than 70 emergency IND patients, some of which had mild to moderate symptoms, and has already successfully completed an FDA Phase 3 trial or HIV and is the subject of a filed FDA BLA application. If approved, Covid victims will be eligible for treatment as soon as Covid is diagnosed and it is merely a subcutaneous shot given twice in two weeks. This would lift the specter of death from risk of Covid infection and make it feel more like a bacterial infection for which there are effective treatments. What do you think the market will do if this comes to pass? An acceleration point?
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    6 June 2020 @ 11:01
    yes, the poo (aud) did flirt with 7 for about 30sec. I shorted it few days ago and capitulated fast as I realised I will get squashed. But after China telling its citizens not to travel to Australia I am thinking of shorting it again and monitor this development.
  • DF
    David F.
    6 June 2020 @ 10:12
    I wish you used subtitles on all of these.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:22
    Seems like economic numbers are going to be all over the place for the next few months. We may not have a good sense of things until the 4th quarter.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      6 June 2020 @ 00:26
      And adding to your comments on the virus, Tennessee reopened in early May. Yesterday, a Christian summer camp announced that 35 counselors contracted the virus after a training session. Two people had shown up with no symptoms and spread to the rest. Example of how a small gathering creates a large outbreak within a group.
    • JC
      John C.
      6 June 2020 @ 09:29
      Just think about how these protests and riots will seriously spread the virus -- or not. I guess we will soon find out if closing down was a big mistake or it was really necessesary. Seeing the PTB & media turn on a dime from "stay safe, stay at home" to effectively "protesting in large groups is a ok" was pretty telling.
  • RD
    Ruediger D.
    6 June 2020 @ 01:17
    There's a lot of new people betting in the market who don't really know what's going on and how markets work. If they keep on beeing right it would be the first time that newbies don't an expensive shaving.
    • DK
      Dennis K.
      6 June 2020 @ 08:06
      I din’t know , i thought that after 2009. But it just went up, up, up, up. I don’t buy into the insolvency of Italy or Spain anymore. They can buy all the bonds they want and put them on the ECB balance sheet, maybe give the Dutch and Germans, a one time freshly printed E 5.000,- per person to keep them shut up. And the market will love it.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    6 June 2020 @ 08:03
    No real corona experts please! what is the point??
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    6 June 2020 @ 05:41
    What camera do you use? I need a new one
  • AI
    Andras I.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:44
    Just to balance things a bit, here is an update from Prof. Damodaran, who I consider to be a very sane, respected yet balanced voice in valuations. The mean of his CF projection based valuation of the S&P is about 5% below the current market level, which is not a lot - considering how quickly things change and seems to line up with the current options distribution relatively well. http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-viral-market-update-ix-do-it-yourself.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FpHUuM+%28Musings+on+Markets%29 RV editors: Would it be possible to introduce him to the RealVision crowd? Recently there has been some requests here to start adding more execution ideas and implementation details. Of course that will be a struggle with commercial portfolio managers (not just the trade ideas but exposing process details) but it's not an issue with him - freely sharing both process and data in a fairly up to date fashion. Not stuck in the library, practicing what he's preaching, has foundations both in macro and corporate finance. Thank you!
    • FP
      Francisco P.
      6 June 2020 @ 01:47
      This is awesome, thank you!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      6 June 2020 @ 02:54
      Hi, Andras. This is a great idea. Prof Damodaran is terrific. I actually spoke with him last summer but we couldn’t make it work because he was on the west coast. Now that we’re totally virtualized, it should be easier to make work. I’ll reach out next week.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      6 June 2020 @ 05:09
      Hope you can make it happen this time, thank you!
  • SS
    S S.
    5 June 2020 @ 23:30
    I was gonna watch this interview, but I couldn't see the white cueball on the pool table so I bailed. 🤣
    • DS
      David S.
      6 June 2020 @ 00:19
      Lol
    • CR
      Cory R.
      6 June 2020 @ 01:25
      I agree they should pan out a bit to the former view of Cafe' Raoul..
    • DP
      David P.
      6 June 2020 @ 05:01
      We also won’t be able to see the pups. Big disappointment.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    6 June 2020 @ 03:54
    Feel like they are maybe being a bit sanguine about the nature of these protests. Good analog I heard it’s all snow piling up on a mountain, don’t know which snowflake causes the avalanche. Very tense time to be in America, people outside might not really realize that.
  • ig
    ian g.
    6 June 2020 @ 03:01
    Drunk the cool aid !! love it ...
  • SN
    SAT N.
    6 June 2020 @ 02:38
    There are some serious questions around the unemployment numbers that came out today. From WaPo: "The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter#comments-wrapper
  • CA
    Carlos A.
    6 June 2020 @ 02:02
    In Miami; for the most part businesses are opened. Momentum is slowly starting to pick up.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    6 June 2020 @ 01:54
    The irony of Raoul's new improved video camera is the picture on my computer is grainier than ever due to my internet speed. And I can't see the cue ball on the pool table!!! Side note: very warm and insightful interview here, totally agree we don't want to live in a world of successful mega-restaurant chains and bankrupt mom&pop watering holes where the interesting conversations take place. We really need to focus on decentralization of things. Think the never-ending variety of food stalls and t-shirt shops other-street shops in Bangkok Thailand.
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    6 June 2020 @ 01:33
    This was one of the best - past, present, future - geography, all in one. Very well done.
  • GM
    Guillermo M.
    6 June 2020 @ 01:22
    And if the EU and US decide to play the Japan game, and buy and bail out everything and everyone always? Would it be possible?
  • SM
    Shawn M.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:54
    I just want to get some clarification on what Raoul is talking about when he says Hi Frequency data. High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity (IEA) Flash estimates or indexes of economic activity bring together a range of elementary indicators to give timely general measures of economic activity. He specifically talks about the data from HF China and is there somewhere that we could also access that as well. I know Raoul appreciates sharing his resources as well as our friend fro #oott Mr. Sam does as well.
  • AD
    Adrian D.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:49
    Shenanigans is a great word for the numbers today, how did the dentistry sector add jobs when the industry is only open for emergency services only. BLS data is using birth/death rate to average employment numbers. Needless to say market went up all is well nothing to see here. To all at Realvision have a great weekend.
  • MI
    Max I.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:29
    Hey Raoul, What watch are you wearing on your wrist right now?
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    6 June 2020 @ 00:25
    “The world has changed. The world has changed hugely.” Now the equities market must join the revolution. Lovely weekend gents. Cheers.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    5 June 2020 @ 23:18
    Raoul you went from the stone age to just short of a 3d hologram 😂 Great talk. Love the focus on forced productivity gains/digitization. So true Commercial realestate is toast
  • DT
    David T.
    5 June 2020 @ 23:17
    Raul's blurry background is annoying. The old camera was alright. reducing picture quality to increase transition speed would be ok us, I guess. Can't see dogs :)
  • BD
    Ben D.
    5 June 2020 @ 23:10
    Prefer the other camera...looks a bit like green screen. Great discussion tho.
  • MT
    Melvin T.
    5 June 2020 @ 23:07
    Meh, I kinda liked the grainy Raoul Pal better ;D
  • PT
    Peter T.
    5 June 2020 @ 22:28
    How do we square the BLS info ?
    • DB
      Donna B.
      5 June 2020 @ 22:50
      The BLS in a footnote to the release says the establishment survey includes persons who are being paid even if they are not at their jobs. This includes persons receiving payments from employers who are being paid under the PPP, which started at the end of the April and into May. In short, it's PPP boasting "employment".
  • rw
    rory w.
    5 June 2020 @ 22:48
    With the 10y going up fast could we see inflation everyone was talking about?
  • JI
    Janne I.
    5 June 2020 @ 22:36
    New set up would be even better if Raoul looked at the camera