Daily Briefing – March 16, 2020

Published on
March 16th, 2020
Duration
18 minutes

Daily Briefing – March 16, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst

Published on: March 16th, 2020 • Duration: 18 minutes

With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Real Vision’s Daily Briefing will be filmed Monday through Friday after the US market closes at approximately 4:15 p.m. ET and released that same day, with the goal of having the show out before 6:00 p.m. ET. The show will always feature a host from Real Vision and a guest, sometimes a member of the editorial staff, and sometimes a contributor from outside of Real Vision. You can expect the show to be approximately 15-20 minutes in length, to cover the important developments from the day, and to tie these recent events back into the durable themes and long-form pieces that are core to Real Vision’s coverage and analysis. Please note that from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. you will see a short 1-minute video in the place of that day’s episode. This clip serves as a placeholder for the day’s video — so that the minute the actual episode is ready to air, we can swap the placeholder out and get the Daily Briefing to you as quickly as possible.

Comments

Transcript

  • MS
    Mark S.
    18 March 2020 @ 05:09
    FYI I get a lot out of all these. I still am having a hard time wrapping my mind around the various mechanism within the system that you will refer to. For example the Fra IOS. I have a vague idea and you make a minimal attempt to briefly explain what that is which is appropriate for the daily brief but I wish you had a separate video that could be 45-90 sec long per topic that explains a few questions about the Fra IOS as an example. What is it intended to do? How does it reveal extremes in the economy? Why are they being revealed in this indicator now? Something like that. I am highly visual so I need more than talking. I need a charts, diagrams etc to help me SEE how these mechanisms work. This would be greatly appreciated. I try to find stuff on the internet but there is not a lot out there. Appreciate the effort. Cheers
    • MS
      Mark S.
      18 March 2020 @ 05:17
      Should add I meant Fra OIS not Fra IOS, and I also meant this as one example out of many mechanism within the economy. IOER versus Fed Funds could be another. I understand that one but I am sure others don't.
  • js
    jeffrey s.
    18 March 2020 @ 00:06
    As long as the conversation ends on fact and not fiction, "maybes" or "perhaps", you'll hear no complaints from me. My gbp/jpy short with wide stop is still in the black, however overall drawdown is hovering around 6% since all this hit.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    17 March 2020 @ 19:54
    Roger rocks! Cheers.
  • CP
    Chakrit P.
    17 March 2020 @ 19:49
    Thank you RV This is great content!
  • BO
    Barbaros O.
    17 March 2020 @ 17:08
    Wtf is happening to liquidity - Eurodollar trade is just about to payoff (DEC 20 99.5 Call) after fed taking rates zero bound, but because of the LIBOR/OIS spread and general counterparts risk aversion of banks, I am now scared this trade wil not pan out as intended. Raoul, any thoughts?
    • CP
      Chakrit P.
      17 March 2020 @ 19:48
      In one of his video he closed some
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    17 March 2020 @ 18:09
    Super work, thanks much for the agility and creativity! "Daily Briefing" is a great idea. My two-bits: skip the virus headlines and stats at the start, as that information is readily available from a jillion sources. Focus on what makes RealVision unique!
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    17 March 2020 @ 06:11
    Interesting blog showing "mum & pop investors" are not panicking..... (I know he is not well-liked on here). Why would a person with a 30 year timeframe be selling now? Dow isn't even back at Trump election levels of ~18,800... ritholtz.com/2020/03/buyers-sellers/
    • CL
      Claudio L.
      17 March 2020 @ 11:36
      Perhaps it is time for Barry Ritholtz to add part two from his book, Bailout Nation.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      17 March 2020 @ 16:23
      Most of the wealth is held by the baby boom generation and they don’t have a 30 year horizon. Many millennials are entrepreneurs or contractors and this is killing their cash flow.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      17 March 2020 @ 16:28
      In reading his blog post, tells me we haven't reached the bottom. Retail investors are trained to buy the dips and according to his blog, that is what they are doing. As most of us know, bottoms are reached until no one wants to buy. So much is closing down this week, there is still a delay on how this is impacting the economy.
  • JP
    Jonathan P.
    17 March 2020 @ 15:44
    Does this fed move fix the issue with non bank market makers?
  • KS
    Kuntal S.
    17 March 2020 @ 15:10
    This is great, please continue this as a regular program. Also I want to hear from Raoul more often.
  • WM
    Will M.
    17 March 2020 @ 15:09
    Just excellent. Loved Rogers input.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    17 March 2020 @ 14:59
    Excellent. Thanks. Great format and super insightful as usual.
  • VH
    Victor H.
    17 March 2020 @ 14:58
    Awesome. That intro reminds of Breaking Bad. LOL. Anyways, keep it coming RV!
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    17 March 2020 @ 13:56
    Thank you RV! Please continue this. Its is a sanity lifeline in a world that has gone absolutely bonkers.
  • XP
    X P.
    17 March 2020 @ 13:10
    Amazing! Continue this format please!
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    17 March 2020 @ 12:46
    Great stuff, I like it! Not a chance we could hear this level of depth and detail in such short time in mainstream media!
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    17 March 2020 @ 00:52
    This is great stuff. I would however humbly suggest that you could slow down a little. When you have nuclear bombs you don't need to fire them from a machine gun.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      17 March 2020 @ 12:43
      You're evidentally not a Hedgeye subscriber. This is slow compared to Keith McCulloch's delivery speed. ;)
  • je
    james e.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:45
    RV: these videos are great and so instructive. Thank you. Simple question though. For those who have liquidity that they don’t want at risk, where is the safest port in the storm? Is it hiding out in short term UST?
    • Am
      Alex m.
      17 March 2020 @ 03:47
      I would also appreciate a comment on this - thank you
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      17 March 2020 @ 12:41
      UST's aren't what they were as a trade now. USD cash may be your best bet in the short term. I'm not RV; this is just my own personal opinion. Watch Raoul's update from yesterday if you haven't already.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    17 March 2020 @ 11:40
    Thank you both for a cincise daily update ... Looking forward to tomorrow's ... Roger, am a great fan of your Refinitive 'big conversation' which is very very good... Ed, thanks for being a great host ... All the best to you both ...
  • AH
    Attila H.
    17 March 2020 @ 11:35
    This was a fantastic piece, thanks Ed and RV !
  • MH
    Marco H.
    17 March 2020 @ 11:23
    Good job! Really enjoyed this update. You may wish to look at some target date funds as examples of the managed money to see the decline in the markets.
    • MH
      Marco H.
      17 March 2020 @ 11:24
      edit: just an example: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RFITX/history?p=RFITX
  • RA
    Robert A.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:38
    Thanks RV...right product at the right time....you know, if Raoul and the other Founders dream hadn’t come to fruition 4 years ago, the right people hired and the kinks ironed out (with input from the RV family) this Product would not be available to us when we certainly need it the most. Never been so proud to be an RV’er.
    • DH
      Damian H. | Founder
      17 March 2020 @ 11:09
      Hey Robert, Thanks for this comment. As a Founder I have to say that this nails it on the head for me... We've come a hell of a long way in five years and yes of course, we've made mistakes along the way. But right now we are doing exactly what Real Vision always set out to do. You see, one of the core reasons for launching Real Vision was because we saw just how bad the communication and analysis was within the finance industry at the time of the great financial crisis in 2008. That lack of support was crippling for many people - and thousands of investors suffered needlessly because it. Right now, because of what we've started and more importantly - because of the support and feedback of our community of Visionaries - we are able to make a difference and come good on that original vision of being a guiding light in the fog and confusion of the markets when people need it most. It makes me proud of what we've achieved and even prouder that people like you could see what we were trying to do, made a commitment to support us and are now reaping the rewards. #WeAreAllInThisTogether Stay safe out there and thank you for being with us on this journey.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    17 March 2020 @ 04:15
    RV - thank you for quickly adding a great format. Even before this virus we saw endless small business closures due to high commercial rents, I do not see this trend reversing until the property bubble reprices - Australian perspective
    • CL
      Claudio L.
      17 March 2020 @ 10:39
      Australia businesses are cutting on casual work from retailing etc.
  • TS
    Tejush S.
    17 March 2020 @ 09:56
    Fed buying Treasuries and MBS, wont they help these non bank lenders?
  • JC
    Joel C.
    17 March 2020 @ 09:40
    very well articulated summary of where things are right now. great idea RV to have this daily.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    17 March 2020 @ 09:36
    This was excellent, timely and full of awesome content! More please :)
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    17 March 2020 @ 09:27
    Great discussion, thank you! You two need to protect yourself well from the virus, we need your functioning brains ;-)
  • JS
    Jim S.
    17 March 2020 @ 00:41
    Has anyone see the difference between bullion dealers and spot silver - its like 30-60% premium to spot for any inventory on hand. I saw this on twitter - then checked my local dealer and they are out of supply. Has anyone seen this happen before?
    • mw
      michael w.
      17 March 2020 @ 07:45
      Only makes sense. With the feds actions, everyone now knows QE is here to stay. metals are massively undervalued here.
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    17 March 2020 @ 06:59
    Redemption! thanks for making this available to all subscribers. Brilliant, looking forward to seeing another marker briefing from these two gents
  • NI
    Nate I.
    17 March 2020 @ 04:56
    I thought FINRA had relaxed the supervision rule to facilitate trading from home, but I'm no expert so I could be wrong. Hopefully someone who really knows about this will chime in.
  • ly
    lena y.
    17 March 2020 @ 04:06
    Real Vision you take business broadcasting to a new level! Bravo!
  • JG
    Jesse G.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:02
    Great format, needed for these times
  • GS
    George S.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:53
    Rog is on fire! Fantastic!
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:49
    Excellent.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:37
    Incredible- the mkt is one big LTCM- OMG!!! No wonder my shorts are working so well.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:34
    This is the show what was missing from RV!
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:22
    Would appreciate it if you could improve the audio quality somehow, but another great discussion - many thanks.
  • EO
    Eric O.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:14
    Great Briefing. I especially liked the discussion about market mechanics and market participants.
  • FD
    Franbcois D.
    17 March 2020 @ 00:50
    I am loving this new type of daily recap format. Not something that needs to be done all the time, but now this is a great format. I am really loving how RV has evolved this past year.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    17 March 2020 @ 00:45
    A great conversation. The frozen cash flow in the world economy is just too much for the central banks and governments to handle. In the GFC, there were only a handful of participants to worry about. Now they have tens of thousand of businesses to worry about. The unemployment shock is already happening, and it’s going to be horrible. Everything is going to get hit. Yours the S&P. And agree that helicopter money is only a matter of time away.
  • DS
    David S.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:22
    If the Fed bails out the hedge funds, it looks like it will end up as another taxpayer bailout. If the Fed picks up all the liquidity, why should we keep hedge funds solvent. Let them go bankrupt as we will be stuck with all the debt. It is apparent that hedge funds believe that they will always be bailed out, so the tail risk is zero. I know that there is a lot more to this, but taxpayers cannot constantly bail out everyone. We are already running a trillion-dollar deficit a year in the US before we even address the problems of Coronavirus. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      17 March 2020 @ 00:19
      It is surprising how socialistic the hedge funds and others get when they lose lots of money. When there is plenty money on the table they are avid capitalist. The bailout in 2008 was a socialist government move. There are no rules in capitalism to bail out fools. DLS
  • yd
    yon d.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:59
    Yes, yes, yes! This is everything that your readers have been expecting for years. Total reversal of all the malinvestments we've witnessed. This is RealVisons opportunity to provide on-the-ground coverage. The I Told Ya So moment! Keep up the great work.
  • DS
    David S.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:58
    RVTV has been predicting this liquidity crisis when all the passive buyers become sellers for years. This was expected. Let the passive funds tell their members that they cannot get out, because they could not guarantee and an instant sell. Many funds, especially long-term asset holders, have clauses that you cannot get out at the drop of a hat. If they did not tell their investors, then that is their problem. DLS
  • JS
    Jim S.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:02
    Hey, question about the dislocation we saw between SLV and SIL and GDX and GLD today. Are metal etfs breaking down or did we just see a lot of quants play the mean reversion trade between the 2 symbols? Thoughts?
    • DT
      David T.
      16 March 2020 @ 23:29
      Yap, for a while at least.
  • JS
    John S.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:11
    Excellent
  • MP
    Matt P.
    16 March 2020 @ 22:37
    actually end of 2018 was a similar straight down sell off. computers
  • SS
    Steve S.
    16 March 2020 @ 22:29
    The S&P500 fell 50% in GFC 2008/9. A 50% Drop from All Time High of 3400 means surely 1700 is a possibility now.which means there could be a further 30% drop from today.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    16 March 2020 @ 21:53
    Fantastic conversation. Thanks
  • JW
    Joel W.
    16 March 2020 @ 20:28
    I reckon this is just what we need. Looking forward to the new effort.