Daily Briefing – March 18, 2020

Published on
March 18th, 2020
27 minutes

Daily Briefing – March 18, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst

Published on: March 18th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

With another day of equity sell-offs, roiling credit markets, and FX mayhem, Real Vision's Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst break down the surge in the US Dollar and the knock-on effects it could create. They also touch on the chances of a recession – or even an economic depression – and shed light on the flurry of asset management and hedge fund deleveraging.



  • RK
    Roger K.
    21 March 2020 @ 12:41
    confused! why Roger needs a financial adviser?
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    19 March 2020 @ 23:45
    Roger explains why I don’t have a financial advisor. Real Vision provides me with a broad range of financial advisors who can’t sell me anything.
  • CS
    Charlie S.
    19 March 2020 @ 03:14
    Question for my fellow Realvision subscribers: I am looking at CEF's and there must be some once in a lifetime opportunities in some of these funds. I simply don't know which ones...does anyone know who is the definitive expert on CEF's is? Any recommendations would be appreciated! I would be happy to subscribe to a paid service if there is an excellent one? Cheers!
    • CW
      Cameron W.
      19 March 2020 @ 04:19
      What country are you in?
    • CS
      Charlie S.
      19 March 2020 @ 04:41
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      19 March 2020 @ 20:18
      Not sure about once in a life time...but I noticed the Sprott Gold and Silver Trust trades roughly at a 5% discount to its NAV. Symbol CEF on NYSE ARCA. I guess this is what happens when investors hit the bid to raise cash and/or rebalance into sectors and stocks that have puked. If the precious metals complex is actually in a bull market, I'd expect the discount to disappear over time.
  • lD
    lance D.
    19 March 2020 @ 17:56
    whats furlow mean
    • KK
      Ken K.
      19 March 2020 @ 19:36
      Mandatory temporary leave(usually unpaid) for employees.
  • EL
    19 March 2020 @ 16:50
    Great video. Is that loo roll on roger’s book shelf?
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    19 March 2020 @ 16:12
    Thanks again guys. The thesis of a strong dollar is more probably than ever. However, central banks can also intervene through swap lines, right? It would be great if you guys talk about this also with Raoul. I am out of equities precisely because of potential bail outs and Fed intervention..
  • HS
    HANA S.
    19 March 2020 @ 15:08
    We got senior hours as well in Czechia, in all shops and pharmacies which are still open, public under 65 is banned to access everyday from 10am - 12am
  • HS
    HANA S.
    19 March 2020 @ 15:08
    We got senior hours as well in Czechia, in all shops and pharmacies which are still open, public under 65 is banned to access everyday from 10am - 12am
  • AS
    Andy S.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:24
    What is the best way for a retail investor to get long USD? Is $UUP an appropriate vehicle?
    • WH
      William H.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:45
      I would like to know this as well? I don’t trade forex.
    • KL
      Kerrie L.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:47
      I bought today. Is like a confirmation this is the right play.
    • WH
      William H.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:59
      Well now that Kerrie is in I’m all in! /s but it looks like RV gives this at the pro level, so I’m not expecting an answer here. No worries
    • AF
      Andre F.
      19 March 2020 @ 04:42
      My simple and unimaginative (but utilitarian) method would be buying (going long) dollar index futures. Or an ETF (I'm guessing $UUP is an ETF).
    • tc
      thomas c.
      19 March 2020 @ 08:58
      look at USDU WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund. More exposure to EMs
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 March 2020 @ 14:30
      Yes I believe UUP is an appropriate vehicle and supported by Raoul on other forums. If YOU personally believe the US$ is going to rise as with the Santiago Capital US$ milkshake theory its a safer way to play it than with options. I bought a chunk a month ago and again yesterday because i do believe the is a scramble for dollars and Martin Armstrong has proposed that the DXY could briefly soar by 25-40% from here. I intend to set a stop on my holdings as it rises to ensure I make some money on it.
  • HK
    Himali K.
    19 March 2020 @ 14:26
    Sorry Ed, when there are prospects of job losses in the near term, people will become naturally more risk averse changing their behavior and becoming more cautious on their discretionary spending and hence I do not see how someone can buy a Peloton. Wonderful series, thank you both Ed and Roger for these daily updates.
  • BP
    Ben P.
    19 March 2020 @ 13:26
    Thanks for confirming what I thought re insurers. I bought an AIG put. It's up 1000%. Insurers (and banks) diversify risk across sectors. But when systemic risks emerge, I figured they would get punished.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    19 March 2020 @ 13:16
    I love these real time chats, hope they continue
  • IP
    IDA P.
    19 March 2020 @ 08:21
    Dear Milton, I am worried that there could be an internet overload with everyone working from home, can we spread the word to not overload the internet for entertainment and chatter? or is it a silly worry?
    • AW
      Adam W.
      19 March 2020 @ 12:37
      Erm, I think we're good.
  • AW
    Adam W.
    19 March 2020 @ 12:36
    Bitcoin was also up!
  • BG
    Bart G.
    19 March 2020 @ 08:59
    Thanks, good idea with daily briefing series. Would be nice to also have separate episode explaining in plain language where is the USD shortage coming from, how is Fed trying to fix it and why it doesn't work. Keep up the good work!
  • DC
    D C.
    19 March 2020 @ 04:30
    Smart Beeeta
  • KB
    Kenneth B.
    19 March 2020 @ 03:38
    I love the story about Roger's advisor. What a great lesson for everybody that you are responsible for your portfolio; not your advisor.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    19 March 2020 @ 02:30
    Thanks Ed and Roger, great as usual!!!!
  • SF
    Scott F.
    19 March 2020 @ 02:10
    Great Info ... keep it coming!
  • AJ
    Adam J.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:57
    Loving the daily update Could you please cover the Eurodollar trade and exit cues in tomorrow’s episode?
  • PC
    Peter C.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:54
    So today's huge rise in long term interest yields is not due to inflation expectations...? Sorry I couldn't understand Roger's english - what's his / the answer? thanks
    • VM
      Vash M.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:37
      Yes. I believe Roger is saying that due to commodity prices falling so low, inflation expectations are unlikely to be the primary driver of the sell off in long term treasuries. Instead it's more likely due to: 1.) The increase in issuance of treasuries (supply boost) 2.) The post QE announcement sell off (treasuries tend to get bought up in anticipation of QE and sell of after its official) 3.) Deleveraging -- the most likely factor according to Roger as we see are seeing multiple pieces of evidence across markets in which asset managers are unwinding their winning positions to counteract their losses.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:50
      Vash M, I am much appreciative of your excellent answer. You should get on this daily update:)
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:46
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:24
    These two are very enjoyable to watch. Thanks
  • JL
    John L.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:00
    Senior citizens Hour in UK is a positive and welcome development. Here, downunder, the 2 dominant supermarket chains in Australia, have also introduced a dedicated shopping hour for seniors and people with disability.
  • DS
    David S.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:54
    If the markets need to close for a short time because of technical reasons, that is OK. It would be a travesty to close the markets because someone thought it was a good idea! The US is not the third world. Did we close the markets when they went up day after day with no good news and even bad news. The markets need to unwind all the stupidity that has been norm for the last ten years. People will need money to pay their bills, buy food, etc. If you close the markets you will hurt even more people. Let it be. DLS
  • PC
    Peter C.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:52
    Thank you RVTV. This is excellent. I also continue to be further impressed with Ed's breath & understanding.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:37
    good discussion but would have liked more information on Raoul's covering of shorts.
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      19 March 2020 @ 00:29
      I think you might have to pay for that service.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    18 March 2020 @ 23:57
    Kondratiev Winter is here.
  • BP
    Barry P.
    18 March 2020 @ 23:54
    Thanks much. Great piece. Keep it up. I don’t watch any major networks for obvious reasons, so great to catch up with this piece.
  • GC
    George C.
    18 March 2020 @ 23:40
    Wish you didn't say "cases" when what you really mean is positive cases confirmed by a test. The actual number of cases surely is much higher. The focus on cases that have a positive test is grossly misleading.
  • ML
    Mike L.
    18 March 2020 @ 23:02
    Spot on Ed. We can think of this situation as an illiquidity of people moving and spending. In 2008, it was the illiquidity of the financial system. In 2020, it's the illiquidity of the real economy (people).
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:52
    This is just great. Thanks Ed and Roger!
  • AB
    Adeel B.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:29
    Lol, welcome to Bitcoin volatility. Enjoy
  • Sp
    Scott p.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:40
    Let's hear about this dollar milkshake!
    • JA
      Justin A.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:58
      Agree I would like to hear Raoul's take on the milkshake. Specifically I know Brent still sees money flowing into US equities in the future but Raoul seems to be out of equities all together. Would like to know the difference in thought there. Thanks guys.
  • Sp
    Scott p.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:41
    Raoul is buying bitcoin now aswell, does he think this is a function of a rush into USDT, or does he know fundies that are piling in right now?