Daily Briefing – March 24, 2020

Published on
March 24th, 2020
Duration
31 minutes

Daily Briefing – March 24, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Ash Bennington

Published on: March 24th, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Today, Real Vision’s Ed Harrison and Ash Bennington discuss the latest developments in the COVID-19 crisis — on a day when the Dow closed up more than 10%, but tail risks appear to be building. Harrison and Bennington break down the case for and against nationwide lockdown, unpack the latest statistics, and discuss the broader economic implications of the fiscal and monetary response.

Comments

Transcript

  • MD
    Mike D.
    26 March 2020 @ 21:43
    Ed Harrison is someone I look forward to hearing or reading at every opportunity. Thank you Ed!
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    26 March 2020 @ 08:20
    I watched to the end but was felt deflated as something was missing. Where is Ed or Justine or Raoul? In the last 6months, "thank you and good to meet you" really has conditioned me, sounding just like a bell ringing. WOOF WOOF- where’s my dinner? sorry....
  • AR
    Ankit R.
    26 March 2020 @ 05:31
    Can you please discuss india and other markets some day.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 March 2020 @ 22:59
    Well done. Be safe. Better directed toward financial markets. I hope this keeps up. I get plenty of Covid-19 info from other places. DLS
  • BS
    Bill S.
    25 March 2020 @ 21:23
    Italy vs China - you believe those numbers from China??? - they fudge everything - its in the DNA/Water - why would this be any different? Italy is the blueprint for the US and the White House is in denialas well as many states. Take numbers from China and use 100-1000x in a 1.5B population.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 March 2020 @ 22:54
      The number of deaths may be a more accurate statistic in China, Italy and the US. The important thing is to be safe and do not become one of the statistics. DLS
  • LM
    Lee M.
    25 March 2020 @ 09:25
    Stop using China figures as a comparison, a child will tell you they are not real
    • PC
      Petros C.
      25 March 2020 @ 10:41
      I am a European living in China and the numbers in my small province do not sound irrational. I hear people in the West talk about Chinese case numbers being x1000 higher. My guess is that Westerns had or have a false sense of security with their case load.
    • LM
      Lee M.
      25 March 2020 @ 11:47
      @petros C you really believe Italy a country of 60 million has more cases than China with a population of 1.4 billion where the virus originated, does that sound rational to you?
    • JG
      Johan G.
      25 March 2020 @ 15:38
      China was basically only Hubei province with about same population as Italy. I have many good connections in China, and I don't think the official numbers are more off there than in Europe or the US.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:43
      Because the US chose not to test, I do not trust our numbers. The critical nexus for this pandemic is medical. Hospitals are overloaded. Focus on helping hospital staff and supplies. DLS
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:48
      I have family in Beijing. The lock down was so tight that they had very few cases in the capital city. Maybe there was some inaccurate reporting at a local provincial level, early, when the virus was not properly recognized but I doubt if there was any deliberate, national level misreporting.
    • LM
      Lee M.
      25 March 2020 @ 21:31
      Hey if you guys trust the CCP and their figures then good luck to you
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    25 March 2020 @ 21:04
    We should not read contraction and mortality rates across countries/regions, without recognizing key differences between countries/regions. Mortality rates are heavily influenced by demographics, overal health of the population (particularly smoking rates), air quality and (apparently) prevalence of malaria (some researchers have also suggested humidity). So, yes, it is perfectly possible, for one country/region to have mortality rates multiples higher than another country/region.
  • km
    kenneth m.
    25 March 2020 @ 05:01
    Appreciate these briefings. But wonder if you guys aren't to Europe-centered. I have been in Taiwan during this. People were projecting much worse numbers. Taiwan didn't shut down, their quarantine is actually pretty soft. I entered the country, twice, since end of January - not the lockdown some portray. Yet, while the numbers are climbing (mostly due to Taiwanese coming back from Europe or China), they are not geometric. How do we know that we are not using a nuke to kill an ant? One other point - NY is testing the anti-malarial, what if we find that works very well (in the next week)? Wouldn't that radically change everyone's thinking?
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      25 March 2020 @ 17:10
      This has been an epic failure to respond timely by the western countries. Since this spreads exponentially, implementing a measure 1 day earlier can suppress the death toll up to 95%. The measures taken don't really matter when they are taken too late. I would look at Sweden and the UK to totally explode at the beginning of April.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:49
      What is Taiwan doing differently to keep Covid-19 from spreading? DLS
  • RK
    Roger K.
    25 March 2020 @ 20:46
    Please bring back Roger.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    25 March 2020 @ 19:00
    Ed, Ash - thanks for these daily briefings. Very useful. Please dig into the inflation theme.
  • JG
    Johan G.
    25 March 2020 @ 15:41
    Ed, European borders are not closed. Essential travel and goods are moving, but in a lock down situation it does not make sense to have free travel across borders. Don't extend this to a failure of Schengen. Perhaps the state/county borders will be similarily closed in the US
  • CH
    Chris H.
    25 March 2020 @ 15:35
    I am not in the camp of downplaying the extent/risk of Covid-19, however this report gives some pertinent information, particularly comparing Covid to the flu: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ Be your own judge.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    25 March 2020 @ 13:23
    Great idea: Paring up Ed Harrison and Stephanie Kelton. An interview marriage made in heaven ... Would love to see that.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    25 March 2020 @ 10:43
    Ed, please dive deeper into potential inflation issues, hard assets, critical supply chain disruptions, such as in food & medicines.
  • GH
    Galen H.
    25 March 2020 @ 07:07
    Thanks for these updates. Very interesting. I'm in South Africa. Things are gonna get real here. Cases are increasing by 25% a day and not the richest of countries to support the people. Is it true that China's not reporting asymptomatic cases? If so, surely there is a huge risk of a second wave. Thanks.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      25 March 2020 @ 10:07
      I'm in SA as well, and I'm very concerned. The human suffering could be terrible. And how on earth we can ever recover economically from this when things were so bad before, I do not know. Good luck to us all.
  • DC
    Daniello C.
    25 March 2020 @ 07:17
    Please add time indexes to these briefing videos, just like other video.
  • jc
    joel c.
    25 March 2020 @ 02:59
    Don't mind the "CCP Covid" figures at all (all wrong with 10 days delay at best in NY, still waiting for the results 10 days later for myself...) and way way way out of reality from china (I lived there, I know a deal more...) probably 20 times more that what's been officially announced... Don't mind the vaccins and all your medical view of this, I can find much more information online or though friends in China, Europe and USA. Don't mind the partisan US politics (I'm a bloody French native...) But for God sake, AFTER A RECORD BREAKING DAY (!) what I (we?) want is a Real Vision or should I say a CLEAR Vision! about Macro & Markets: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Stocks. You both are very nice, a real pleasure to listen to, but please bring back Raoul or Roger Hirst or please step up your game... Thanks anyway, Ruben
    • WA
      Wissam A.
      25 March 2020 @ 06:32
      I agree with Joel here. Please have the discussion about the Macro and markets. Thank you.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    25 March 2020 @ 04:39
    They’re in the USA; of course their internet is crap. Haven’t you been paying attention to infrastructure commentary? Sorry for the dig, I’m Australian, our internet is atrocious. Fortunately I live in Thailand, with fibre optic. 2mins to download a 4GB movie! Keep up the fantastic work, Ed at el. Really appreciate your efforts, poor internet and all. Tomorrow please discuss gold market movements. Australia’s mints have no store stock, 2-3 weeks delivery time. Silver coins have actually been removed from their online catalogue.
  • jr
    john r.
    25 March 2020 @ 04:08
    Hi, please let the cable news channels hype up the bogus stats and untested data with vertical charts and death counts. It's really unprofessional and creates unnecessary stress.
    • jr
      john r.
      25 March 2020 @ 04:10
      Im referring to the opening comments obviously, the rest of program great
  • JH
    Jason H.
    25 March 2020 @ 03:41
    Look @ the number of people that died as a result of the great depression. This will kill more than the virus. No easy answers but to say that the only concern for human life here is the virus is myopic!
  • PS
    Peter S.
    25 March 2020 @ 03:32
    We are going into lock down here in Seattle in another 24 hours. In the building industry here, many construction companies performing non-essential activities plan to try to continue working, in defiance of the Governor's emergency orders, from what I've heard on the inside. While some of these owners are pushing to continue work out of simple greed, I suspect most of them are so extended that they simply cannot afford to stop work for two weeks. I'm afraid the economic fallout from this thing in the construction industry is going to be more intense than most people expect. These guys run their businesses right on the edge.
  • jc
    joel c.
    25 March 2020 @ 03:03
    And I don't mind the slow connection... Take care guys
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    25 March 2020 @ 03:01
    Greenspan's easy money policies of the early 2000's started all this and was propped up by politicians that were gutless. If you have hard assets you have a chance. If you don't your standard of living is on a major decline.
  • WM
    Will M.
    25 March 2020 @ 02:34
    Thank you for a good update and very interesting discussion on the challenges facing us. This disease event, market turmoil and extent of monetary relief thats already required let alone possibly required raises question about whether this may be an event thats eclipses the 30s......... and the horrible war that followed. Stay safe in NY and DC guys!
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    25 March 2020 @ 01:35
    Do any knowledgeable subscribers understand what happens to LQD if individual bond issues are downgraded to junk given Fed support? Is there a negative impact as the ETF needs to exit the now lower value junk bonds or is there some sleight of hand and they are excluded from now smaller universe of investment grade bonds contained in the ETF?
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    25 March 2020 @ 01:32
    Excellent discussion, thanks. Ash, Mum's know best!!
  • DM
    Dwayne M.
    25 March 2020 @ 01:18
    What happened to Roger? The previous episodes when he was on had much more in-depth information about market movements/mechanics. Now this briefing has become an opinion video between 2 Journos; much less value than before.
  • mB
    marc B.
    25 March 2020 @ 00:41
    I’m really enjoying the conversation. Keep it going!
  • RS
    R S.
    25 March 2020 @ 00:32
    Can we get an estimate of how much money QE Unlimited will be? $1T? $1.5T? Would love to hear the team discuss on the next update.
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    25 March 2020 @ 00:13
    Can you share a good source for reinfection being much worse? Would love to look more into that.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      25 March 2020 @ 00:15
      New York Post "Whistleblower doctors say coronavirus reinfection even deadlier" By Jackie Salo February 19, 2020 | 2:40pm | Updated https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/
  • MT
    Mark T.
    24 March 2020 @ 22:15
    I respect Ed's answer to the question about what he thought of trumps desire to open the country by Easter. Very diplomatic.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      25 March 2020 @ 00:05
      Appreciate the kind words
  • AA
    Alex A.
    24 March 2020 @ 22:44
    ed. please get a faster connection or dumb down the rez on your video camera.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      25 March 2020 @ 00:04
      It’s a problem. We are working on it though!
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    24 March 2020 @ 23:58
    These have become my favourite videos of the day. Nice one, keep it up.
  • MF
    Max F.
    24 March 2020 @ 23:28
    Delta downgrade is the first of many. Certain shale drillers, servicers, and funds got cut 2 or 3 notches all in one go last week.
  • TS
    Todd S.
    24 March 2020 @ 23:09
    These are great.
  • ER
    Eric R.
    24 March 2020 @ 23:06
    Wife is Pharmacist. Story might be getting a doctor on to talk potential efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax. Seems like this might be a big deal from what I am hearing from her if administered early.
  • SK
    Shiu K.
    24 March 2020 @ 23:01
    PMI numbers don't matter now
  • RN
    Richard N.
    24 March 2020 @ 22:52
    I love these daily briefings. They are helpful just to get a clear idea of what is going on in these trying times. Thank yall for what you do.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 March 2020 @ 22:54
      Thanks, Richard. Much appreciated.
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    24 March 2020 @ 22:18
    Ed, love the content but your internet connection is mediocre, bruv.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 March 2020 @ 22:47
      We're absolutely working on it right now, Sean. Our feeling at RV is that markets are in motion — and our whole team is incredibly passionate about the content and eager to get it out as fast as we can. We're working on lots of changes under the hood right now to improve video quality and the viewer experience as we work from home in quarantine in NYC and elsewhere. Most of all, we very much appreciate everyone hanging in there with us as we do. —A