Daily Briefing – March 25, 2020

Published on
March 25th, 2020
Duration
23 minutes


Daily Briefing – March 25, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Roger Hirst

Published on: March 25th, 2020 • Duration: 23 minutes

In today's daily briefing, Real Vision's Roger Hirst joins Ash Bennington to hash through the day’s events and market action. The pair discuss the significance of what's happening in equities, credit markets, and currencies, as well as the broader consequences of Fed actions and fiscal policy in the framework of the COVID-19 crisis.

Comments

Transcript

  • AA
    Alberto A.
    28 March 2020 @ 03:12
    This was awesome all week long. Ed, Ash, Roger, and of course Raoul finishing the week. Great format, great commentary, great insights. Keep them coming! This is super value added for RV. Have a safe weekend!
  • ZM
    Zachary M.
    25 March 2020 @ 22:31
    I hope this reveals the complexity, absurdity, and broken bureaucracy for people who run small business. I suspect there's a total disconnect from the macro side of things to the micro. Especially in places like California where starting a business for your average person is becoming increasingly ridiculous. There are people who have access to a lot of capital to create businesses, but as small business starts to get crushed, we're going to see a whole generation of people who don't have the opportunity to build those back up in the current regulatory environment.
    • js
      jeffrey s.
      27 March 2020 @ 05:02
      Very much agree. My brother just shuddered his small business (SB) in Calif. and bought a minority stake in a similar business that operates in N. Carolina. I ran thru the PnL and BS and was astounded at the profit spread. I closed my SB years ago to consult due to heavy regulation and tax burden. Also, moved the wife's practice to Oregon where her time is properly valued by about 1.6x. I bounce back and forth, but Oregon gets all our tax pmts now. My son will never have a chance to open shop and do what he loves in the state he grew up in.
  • WM
    William M.
    26 March 2020 @ 20:41
    These daily briefings are great.....thanks so much RV!
  • JH
    Jason H.
    26 March 2020 @ 05:20
    Politically the choice is get crucified now or get crucified later.
    • JL
      Jack L.
      26 March 2020 @ 18:18
      You forgot the third option -- to get crucified now AND later. O Tempora!
  • TB
    Tom B.
    26 March 2020 @ 03:02
    Roger is amazing. Love the guy. Great job Ash.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      26 March 2020 @ 18:03
      Thanks, Tom. We appreciate it.
  • IS
    Ian S.
    26 March 2020 @ 14:19
    You don't need to know the absolute death rate to know how deadly this thing is. Just look at the footage coming out of Iran, Italy, Spain, etc. They can't keep up with all the patients who need intensive care, and the bodies are piling up. Also, the denominator problem exists for other viruses like the flu too. They don't test everyone for the flu, usually only those sick enough to be hospitalized. Using only test positive cases, the flu death rate is 0.1%. The death rate for COVID-19 is at least an order of magnitude higher.
  • JR
    Josh R.
    26 March 2020 @ 09:07
    I’m trying to understand what the outlook for inflation is. I have heard a lot about inflation in RV but now hearing about possible deflation. Can anyone break this down for a rookie?
  • ST
    Simon T.
    26 March 2020 @ 08:54
    Simply great and clear
  • AS
    Alex S.
    26 March 2020 @ 06:03
    Best daily briefing yet. Kudos to RV for putting these out there. Seriously appreciate the high-quality analysis. Really cuts through all the clutter and nonsense we’re being inundated with as we hunker down and try to ride this thing out.
  • AR
    Ankit R.
    26 March 2020 @ 05:33
    Impact on India please?🙂🙏
  • LY
    Lawrence Y.
    25 March 2020 @ 22:55
    Hi, what is meant by "banks become utilities"?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 March 2020 @ 23:59
      You'll find out more in Roger's interview airing Friday, but what that means is banks may become like utility companies. Private but with prices negotiated and set by regulators. For instance, in the US the amount an electric company is allowed to charge is set by the state it is operating in and in many cases if the company wants to raise prices they have to go to regulators to get it approved and justify the change. He is implying the way banks operate may be closer to this in the not too distant future.
    • pw
      paul w.
      26 March 2020 @ 01:45
      I wonder which banks will be appointed as approved companies to administer the loans to small companies from the government and what it means for their financial performance including dividends as presumably their revenue stream becomes more stable but lower margin
    • LY
      Lawrence Y.
      26 March 2020 @ 05:15
      Thanks, looking forward to Roger's interview. Also I second Paul W and am curious how it will impact financial performance.
  • JH
    Jason H.
    26 March 2020 @ 04:39
    IMO they will need to nationalize the banks in some places around the world. Here in Aust. I think it will lead to this.
  • RS
    Rajat S.
    26 March 2020 @ 01:42
    What does bank going towards becoming utilizes mean ? Thanks
    • RS
      Rajat S.
      26 March 2020 @ 01:42
      Sorry Utilities.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      26 March 2020 @ 02:18
      Sounds scary!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      26 March 2020 @ 03:08
      You'll find out more in Roger's interview airing Friday, but what that means is banks may become like utility companies. Private but with prices negotiated and set by regulators. For instance, in the US the amount an electric company is allowed to charge is set by the state it is operating in and in many cases if the company wants to raise prices they have to go to regulators to get it approved and justify the change. He is implying the way banks operate may be closer to this in the not too distant future.
    • JH
      Jason H.
      26 March 2020 @ 04:37
      I think they may have to nationalize them to achieve this. Wait for the bank run to really bite then you will see the .gov reaction. Don't be surprised if the people end up owning a few!
  • CB
    Chris B.
    26 March 2020 @ 04:24
    Sorry but Siri mistranslated me due to my braces. LOL. Below it should read people may lose their faith I Bonds, not Barnes.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    26 March 2020 @ 04:21
    Can you do a longer explanation on yield curve control to prevent interest rates from rising. With this not cause people to lose faith in Barnes and exit the bond market? And if the exit Vons or China sells their bonds, should that not cause then interest rates to rise forcing the Fed to buy those bonds to keep to yours down? With buying TBT be a play to do in that case in order to protect oneself begins the decline of bonds were saying it another way, rising interest rates?
  • JL
    Joel L.
    26 March 2020 @ 03:44
    As much Roger as possible please Realvision.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    26 March 2020 @ 02:57
    Thank you for putting this together!
  • MC
    Mark C.
    26 March 2020 @ 02:19
    This increasingly becomes my must listen updates everyday. Thanks for the great works and insight!
  • AK
    Adam K.
    26 March 2020 @ 01:27
    Thanks again for the details fellas!
  • RA
    Robert A.
    26 March 2020 @ 00:14
    Ash and Roger have just been killing it on these Daily Updates. Invaluable RV resources. Thank you guys, your efforts are not going unnoticed.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      26 March 2020 @ 00:52
      Thanks, Robert. Much appreciated.
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    26 March 2020 @ 00:23
    Jesus Christ can Roger please calm-and-slow-the-fk-down? There's loads to learn here but listening to it feels like being on the end of a firehose.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    25 March 2020 @ 23:50
    What is a good way to protect against supply shock and fiscal stimulus induced inflation in consumer goods? It sounds like there could be deflation in some parts of the economy (assets), while there is inflation in other parts (consumer goods like food). Hard assets (e.g., real estate, gold) may not work well if there is deflation. TIPS?
  • AI
    Andras I.
    25 March 2020 @ 23:04
    Inflation is unavoidable. Here in China essential food items skyrocketed during the 2 months of stronger lockdown. Meat was already stressed due to swine flu - beef and later even chicken acting as a substitute. Fruits/vegetables seem less affected but some of the longer shelf life items were creeping up too. We're seeing 2-3x prices now in meat prices compared to Q4 2019 (online groceries delivery) and recently started to appear in restaurant (online delivery) prices too. Overall inflation also increased but these are the daily items that those people quaranteened in the US will immediately feel the impact on. February data from Trading Economics: "China's annual inflation rate fell to 5.2 percent in February 2020 from an over eight-year high of 5.4 percent in January, as non-food prices rose at a softer pace due to clothing (0.5 percent vs 0.6 percent), rent, fuel & utilities (0.3 percent vs 0.5 percent), household goods & services (0.1 percent vs 0.2 percent), education, culture & recreation (1.0 percent vs 2.2 percent), healthcare (2.2 percent vs 2.3 percent) and other goods and services (4.4 percent vs 4.8 percent). In addition, transport & communication prices fell 1.6 percent (vs 0.9 percent in January). Meanwhile, food prices surged 21.9 percent, the most since April 2008, with pork prices rising at a steeper rate (135.2 percent vs 116 percent). Pork prices have been rising amid a prolonged African swine fever epidemic and some lock-downs and transport restrictions on the back of a virus outbreak. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, much slower than a 1.4 percent gain in January." March figures will be similar - and there was no helicopter money (or any other demand side stimulus) in China.
  • DS
    David S.
    25 March 2020 @ 23:01
    Well done. Better directed toward financial markets. I hope this keeps up. DLS