Daily Briefing – May 1, 2020

Published on
May 1st, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 1, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 1st, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Ash Bennington joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal for an exploration of how to find the macro signal amid the noise of economic indicators, alternative data, and confounding price action. Raoul describes an alarming pattern he's been noticing in data on foot traffic, and gives his view on whether fiscal and monetary policy will be able to "paper over the cracks." Raoul and Ash then analyze the recent mortgage payment figures, and have a little bit of fun with Elon Musk's recent antics.

Comments

Transcript

  • SP
    Steve P.
    9 May 2020 @ 21:59
    J Crew is a terrible example of anything. Literally no one cares or wears J Crew. Maybe in 2001. Americans have closets today which could last for a century. We need to shape up our spending and spend frugal, seriously. Smarter to own 4 jeans of great quality than buy a cheap pair every couple months.
  • RM
    Ritwik M.
    4 May 2020 @ 23:34
    It’s really good
  • OC
    O C.
    4 May 2020 @ 17:36
    Captions, please. Thank you very much!
  • BG
    Bart G.
    3 May 2020 @ 04:03
    Is there a way of listening the content audio only on Real Vision app with the screen off? I wanted to listen to one episode but it stops every time I turn off the screen, couldn't figure out how to fix it. Any ideas? Thanks
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 May 2020 @ 07:10
      Hi, Bart. If you click the audio button, you can download the audio only MP3 file and listen to it on any mp3 player. Hope that helps.
    • RS
      Rishi S.
      4 May 2020 @ 00:48
      Bart, if you have an iPhone, I stumbled upon an odd workaround to stream and listen: 1) Play a video on your Real Vision app, 2) Navigate to your home screen - the audio will stop. 3) Slide down on the top right to access your quick control panel, and click the play button. The audio will resume playing. 4) Now lock your screen and continue listening.
    • BG
      Bart G.
      4 May 2020 @ 08:27
      Thanks Rishi, works perfectly !
  • DS
    David S.
    3 May 2020 @ 16:58
    If medical science can find better ways of treating COVID-19 so a patient can recover at home like a "regular flu" without an ICU visit, then our options are must better. Currently it is rational to believe that ending social distancing will overwhelm ICUs. Many people feel that this is an acceptable outcome - like lemmings they believe we must accept death as part of the recovery. It is too difficult to state it this simply, so denial is easier - It is just the flu. (Personally, I do not think lemmings jump to their deaths to balance populations. It is just a “follow the herd instinct” without rational thought. Similar to migrating gazelle necessity to cross crocodile infested rivers. Enough of the gazelles make it through to keep the species going.) DLS
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      3 May 2020 @ 22:07
      "Currently it is rational to believe that ending social distancing will overwhelm ICUs" No it is not. Social distancing has not done anything, and you have zero support for it scientifically. Stop the fear mongering. We have flattened the curve, now the prolongation keeps going precisely because this is not, and NEVER was, about science.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 May 2020 @ 05:34
      Lemony S.- Just in case you are not correct, I am not visiting COVID-19 wards for now. DLS
  • WC
    Will C.
    4 May 2020 @ 05:19
    Raoul your analysis has been spot on leading to this event although one aspect missing from the current macro framework is that the governments and central banks will stop at nothing this time around. No amount of money printing/fiscal response is too large to stem the ongoing economic issues. Comparing for example in 2008/09 when the banking system took a prolonged period to fix, compared to this time where credit markets area essentially functioning normally with issuance and demand both healthy. The speed and magnitude of the policy response in this particular downturn has been staggering. "The Nuclear Option" was good and would be really interesting if RV was able to do more episode/interview/research piece purely on the current policy response.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 23:11
    Mr. Bennington: Just for fun. The following is a great quote: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Quote Investigator lists the possible authors as: - Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? and Anonymous. Personally, I think it fits Yogi Berra the best. DLS
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 May 2020 @ 00:26
      Ha. Yes! I looked it up in QI, too!
    • SZ
      Sarjan Z.
      3 May 2020 @ 03:22
      Ash, I’d love to hear how a cure/vaccine for COVID affects Raouls insolvency event? If a cure/vaccine comes in within 12 months, my assumption is that behavior should change again and demand/consumption will get back to normal. How long does the lockdown have to last for the solvency event to occur?
    • MJ
      Mike J.
      4 May 2020 @ 01:51
      Bill Gates has been studying these diseases for many years and works with the best in the world to solve this problem. In his interview on 60 Minutes this week said it was not possible to have a cure by the end of the year. It just takes time. 18 months is optimistic. Then months or years to develop and roll out to people. This will take years.
  • MK
    Marcus K.
    3 May 2020 @ 20:34
    In my view Sweden understand the issue: the whole population will get the virus, no matter what. The "normal" flu virus is already very contagious and also almost everybody gets it every year. So ... total lockdown to infect as few people as possible is insane. The only thing necessary is to slow down the infection rate so that hospitals will not be full like in Italy. This means that governments that are focused on infecting as few people as possible will have panic reactions when the second wave comes.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      3 May 2020 @ 22:04
      The self fulfilling prophecy that is totally ignorant of actual science, particularly of respiratory illnesses = slowing herd immunity only produces more problems. See my authoritarian posts below.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      3 May 2020 @ 23:02
      Things are not as clear cut as they seem at first sight. First of all, the flu has on average an R-0 of around 1.3. It is contageous but there is a huge difference with COVID-19 that has on average an R-0 in the range 2.5 - 3 (maybe more). In practice this means that the flu can infect about 1 - 1/1.3 ~ 23% of the population before herd immunity is reached (meaning that R becomes effectively 1 or lower). In reality there are seasonal effects that reduce R in summer time and as such reduce the actual % needed for herd immunity. COVID-19 is much more contageous and needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity is reached. Also, seasonal impacts are expected to be minimal based on the info we have to date. Requiring 2/3rd of the population to have herd immunity is basically mass murder considering that 0.5 - 1% of the infected will die even with proper hospitalization. So it is not in Sweden's interest to work towards herd immunity either. They do have two advantages. First, they did not have large community spreading. This was a problem in NY, Italy, Spain but also for France, Netherlands, Belgium and regions in Germany that all got infected by having many residents in the heavily infected Italy-Austria region during the skiing season. So they did not need to contain a sudden outburst. Second they have a low population density. Outside the major city areas, R-0 will be much lower than average simply because interaction between people is very muted. So they can contain it better. However, there are reports that Stockholm is a major problem area so I expect them to step up before the public speaks up or the medical system breaks down. Regarding the risk of a second wave. Currently, countries with a high number of infections (Belgium, Italy etc) have about 5% of their population infected while countries with almost no infections (Denmark, NZ etc) have close to 0% of their population infected. 5% or even 10% is too to avoid second wave. We also don't know if those who have been infected have sufficient immunity when the second wave comes. Even herd immunity may not protect us.
    • JF
      John F.
      3 May 2020 @ 23:44
      I think you have to look at NY. Where I live. Approximately 18,000 people are dead so far. With an estimated 14 percent of people in the state infected.( .0066 mortality rate). However most of the numbers are down state. Also it has mainly hit nursing homes, people with high blood pressure and with high blood sugar. Thus you really have to dig into the numbers to see how you can open up the economy. People who are high risk should quarantine and should be given extra services and help. Everyone else should go about their lives with precautions. I have read so many conflicting facts on masks and social distancing that I have nothing to add. You also have to look at the toll the shutdown and quarantine is taking. Depression, going off the sober wagon, putting off medical procedures or even being afraid of going to emergency room. These numbers could be much higher then the actual disease. The sensible approach is to have a multilayer plan for different groups of people. PS. I used to take the subway extensively. No way I will do this till there is either a cure or vaccine. The workers in the subway are a group that was/is hit hard. They think it is that the workers are in closed crowded places for extended times. In the end this is one of those things that is a moving target and You make the best decision with the facts you have and if the facts change you change what you do. The Demming method on steroids. Plan Do Check Act.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    3 May 2020 @ 16:18
    Raoul, I also would like to see your answer to Kelly O's question below, but I find it odd that you often add to the fear mongering going on here with the media. I'm talking about how at around (just before) the 14:00 mark you talk about traffic. We are just coming out of this, the recency and media biases are huge, and many "orders" exist all around the USA and even the world telling people actively NOT to do anything. Yet you act like the current behavior is suggestive of what it will be like. Granted, I think the point on subsequent shutdowns is real and a danger to economies, namely small businesses and real capital endeavors, but it is still a comment on authoritarian governments than it is on what is "really going on in the world" vis a vis the virus, which does not cause significant symptoms in 99.9% of people. I think you should stick to the real problems at hand, that is, the Fed last bullets being forced by this, the real problems moving ahead with the stronger dollar, and the debt scenarios with the major demographic problems which are multifactorial. Those are things you have spoken eloquently and accurately on and are by far the most important. The artificial shutdown of the economy due to a not-so-lethal virus has always been something far less meaningful in the big picture to those of us who know what it is (especially with all the new data supporting this time and again), than the problems of authoritarian governments and out of control central banks/debt.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      3 May 2020 @ 17:31
      "The artificial shutdown of the economy due to a not-so-lethal virus has always been something far less meaningful in the big picture ..." What are your sources to claim that COVID-19 it is "not-so-lethal" and only causes significant symptoms in 99.9% of people? Latest research points to a casualty rate of 0.5 to 1% and assumes that the medical system is able to support the critical patients (if not, it will be much worse). Without measures that slow-down the epidemic (and impact the economy), about 60-70% will be infected before the epidemic is over. This would happen before a vaccine can slow down the epidemic. So, assuming that the medical system keeps up, we are talking about at least 1 million deaths in the US. The virus is a big part of the macro picture. It sets (necessary) barriers and limits where there weren't any prior to the epidemic and impacts the psychology of both consumer and employee. Lifting those barriers and limits when the virus is still spread throughout the community will not solve the second issue, on the contrary. If more and more people are impacted by the virus in their own circle of family and friends because the state or city doesn't protect their health, their fear will only increase.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      3 May 2020 @ 22:10
      Every antibody test done in northern, southern california, Miami, NYC, Massachusetts and around the world. They all show the same thing, millions of people with antibodies, and infection related deaths as small, or smaller, than seasonal flu. Every. single. one. I'm sure Dr. Katz is also lying in his interview with Bill Maher, that John Ioannides prediction was wrong (hint, it wasn't), that multiple scientists regardless of politics all say the same thing when confronted with the real data. This virus came and went regardless of what anyone did (see another scientist from another country, Isaac ben Israel), they have the same curve that is not statistically different ANYwhere.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      3 May 2020 @ 23:15
      "Every antibody test done in northern, southern california, Miami, NYC, Massachusetts and around the world. They all show the same thing, millions of people with antibodies, and infection related deaths as small, or smaller, than seasonal flu. Every. single. one." Antibody tests in Belgium show that 4.6% of the population is infected and about 7500 died from COVID. This would amount to a 1.5% casualty rate but excluding the deaths in elderly homes (for which the COVID is not always certain), the actual casualty rate is about 0.75%. This excludes all those who may still die in the future due to complications.
  • RR
    Ronan R.
    2 May 2020 @ 20:58
    I would like to comment on Raoul being puzzled about Elon and explain what he means with all his tweets. He’s basically saying the corona numbers make no sense, the public consciousness Is unaware of what’s really going on, to get out of the stock market, real estate is going to also take a huge dive and calling upon the patriots of the USA to stand up and fight. His profile picture is an old video game called Dues Ex. Look up the plot of that game if you want to get even deeper. Yes you will need your tin foil hat, but if some of you have already figured out things are usually not what they appear then you understand he's saying what he wants to say under the radar so he doesn't get totally hammered by the controlled media.
    • JR
      John R.
      3 May 2020 @ 08:07
      Question Everything.
    • JL
      Joel L.
      3 May 2020 @ 11:26
      Elon is for the people!
    • MR
      Michael R.
      3 May 2020 @ 22:43
      I am thinking that Elon see a threat to his car company with cheap oil, an abundance of competitor stock, a public that is unlikely to buy new cars and supply chain pressures. 30% of the parts for his cars in China come from the US. Plus sourcing battery materials in a time when supply chains are uneven. I will believe him selling his possessions when he sells his jet.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    3 May 2020 @ 22:37
    Guess Friday is laundry day in the Pal household :)
  • NM
    Niall M.
    3 May 2020 @ 22:22
    Anybody know a broker that offers USD/SAR or USD/AED ? Preferably with Margin
  • JR
    John R.
    3 May 2020 @ 08:02
    A great interviewer and a great interviewee. Love the insights and the enthusiasm.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 May 2020 @ 19:50
      Thanks, John!
  • DS
    David S.
    3 May 2020 @ 18:29
    Comment from Mr. Ollari's interview with Mr. Pal - I believe Mr. Ollari said 35% non-check payments assets. This could be precious metals and digital currency. Any other ideas? If the transcript does not make these assets clear, maybe Mr. Pal could follow up and ask in general what is in the 35%. It would be a nice addition to any Daily Briefing. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    3 May 2020 @ 17:50
    Most of MMT to the lower income group will be spent. MMT to the wealth will be passively invested or held in cash equivalents. DLS
  • JC
    John C.
    3 May 2020 @ 07:26
    Fascinating conversation. Raoul definitely ups the ante when he is on. Would like to hear more about the darker side of Silicon Valley. We all know how incredible the rise of Apple, Google, FB etc. have been but what about the more recent worrisome side(s)? Surveillance capitalism, lobbying Congress to enact their rules and insulate themselves fron competition, monopolistic behavior while not paying taxes, dirty startup money funding from Saudi & China, banning opposing viewpoints online on Twitter, YouTube, FB etc. etc. Increasingly these behemoth companies do not seem to be proponents of free speech let along a fair business environment. And after using wide open laissez-fair capitalist means to grow and dominate (while not paying much if anything in taxes) the founders of these companies such as Bezos & Zuckerberg, quite hypocritically, seem to push for more and more socialist policies & behavior now that they essentially make the rules.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      3 May 2020 @ 16:05
      Great comment, John. Sadly, with the increase in the size of government and dependence of our "leaders" on the sweet juice of lobbyists, thus lacking real principles, we have ceded much to alternative powers that combine to be enemies of the people. Decaying societies tend to devolve like this, so it's also not a coincidence we see debt also being taken to the brink.
  • KO
    Kelly O.
    3 May 2020 @ 15:34
    Raoul, does your macro view take into consideration the “pandemic” might be totally overblown (either intentionally or unintentionally)? Per CDC website (link below), they have recorded 37,308 Covid-19 deaths for the USA between Feb 1st thru Apr 25th, which I’ll point out is 70+% fewer than for pneumonia during the same timeframe. Could the economy come roaring back if this is later determined to be no more threatening (to society as a whole) then the seasonal flu or pneumonia?...as that appears to be the case from the data so far. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ Appreciate your thoughtful perspective.
  • Lv
    Liliane v.
    2 May 2020 @ 00:05
    Wonderful segment. Thank you so much, I saw today that the confirmed cases in Georgia doubled from yesterday according to Worldometer, so I suppose we all will keep a close eye on that development. I am still very interested in getting some input on recommendations on how to allocate funds inside a retirement account, since Bitcoin is not an option for that, real estate other than REITs are not an option either, let alone physical gold. So what would be the recommended way of action for someone, who is about 10 years away and wants to make sure to stay ahead of these rollercoaster times? Thank you
    • DB
      David B.
      2 May 2020 @ 02:34
      I buy Bitcoin in my IRA via GBTC at Interactive Brokers.
    • DD
      Donal D.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:39
      If you are not allowed to buy physical gold you may be able to buy a closed end fund that holds bullion in a vault. You can look at PHYS which is just gold or CEF which I believe is a 70/30 mix of gold and silver.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      3 May 2020 @ 15:08
      Bitcoin (BTC) is the way out of all this mess. Physical gold: it is opaque (no one really knows what is going on), illiquid, inconvenient, expensive to verify, total supply is unverifiable, weak difficulty adjustment, no halving, easier to seize, at full adoption, and owned by central banks.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    2 May 2020 @ 20:59
    Governments will have no choice but to open everything. Killing the patient to cure the disease? WHO & CDC is now our doctors, by their suggested guidelines being "enforced" by state, city & local governments. WTH. Like I trust these socialists. Bill Gates wants to inject/sell everyone on the planet with his vaccines and tests. He clearly states this on video several times. Vaccines don't fall into the "drug" category of regulation. Can't sue the manufacture, provider or injector. 60% success rate on vaccines. Cause and effect of such injections? How in the hell have we the people allowed these monsters to take over the world? Is there going to be war, civil unrest and further destruction on the "fear" of a virus, which based on CDC numbers, is less than the worldwide flu sickness and death each year? There really needs to be an investigation into this human tragedy.
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2020 @ 07:32
      Everyone in the public sector still getting paid and have their jobs. So not feeling the pain as much. These public officials have been asleep at the wheel from the beginning so not sure how we can fully trust them to do the right thing. They mostly never have in the past why now?
    • KO
      Kelly O.
      3 May 2020 @ 14:51
      You are spot on Sam S. For those following the mainstream media and who believe the hype, go look at the CDC website for the actual stats. From Feb. 1 thru Apr. 25th (2020) there have been 37,308 Vivid-19 deaths recorded in the entire USA. During this same timeframe there have been 64,382 pneumonia deaths (70%+ more!), and 719,438 all cause mortality deaths! The world has been such down for something less deadly than pneumonia or the flu. Something else is at play here. Raoul, does your macro view take this into account? And to Piggyback on Ronan’s comment below, I too believe this plays into why Elon is tweeting as he is. There is something else going on here, and if we’ve shut the world economy down over it, it must be big!
  • RA
    Rob A.
    3 May 2020 @ 11:53
    I don’t know where you’re getting your data Singapore from, but it’s wrong. I should know, I live in Singapore and I work in the public sector out here. There have been two occasions where Raoul has stated something incorrect about how Singapore is handling virus mitigation and once when Roger Hirst did the same. Just to clarify, Singapore has never eased its lockdown, it did not attempt any form of reopening. Restaurants have remained closed ever since lockdown began.
  • DP
    Daniella P.
    2 May 2020 @ 02:02
    If you think Balaji was great, interview Chamath.
    • JS
      Jonathan S.
      2 May 2020 @ 02:38
      Chamath PLEASE!
    • JL
      Joel L.
      3 May 2020 @ 11:18
      YESS!!
  • DS
    David S.
    3 May 2020 @ 00:13
    If this pandemic lasts, major rent reductions will be the first and most important single life and death strategy negotiated from small businesses too large corporations. If a landlord kicks out a restaurant for not paying rent, who will they be able to rent to at the old price? Who wants and empty restaurant, office space, retail store, etc.? Landlords are partners in the success of each property. When the money stream is cut in half, something must give. This may even save the bacon in Asheville, NC. This is not surprising, just common sense. DLS
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2020 @ 07:29
      Good points. Restaurant and retail industries in particular danger. Will our public officials and workers (who all are still getting paid and receiving benefits) feel enough of the private sector pain and do the math well enough to finally realize that we must eventually reopen gradually and safely? Right now the public sector does not seem to understand who ultimately pays their salaries and creates most of the jobs.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 May 2020 @ 08:12
      Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are opening now. This is part of the balance between stopping the virus and keeping the economy going. I hope that COVID-19 slows it spread during summer and we find many new treatments until the vaccine is available. There are no easy choices. Only time will tell. DLS
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:18
    Please have Raoul do more of the daily briefs. Always the best. Also looking forward to hearing more about the halvening
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2020 @ 07:30
      Agree. Raoul is the best
    • JR
      John R.
      3 May 2020 @ 08:05
      Yep. Raoul has some of the best insights I have heard in 12 years of DIY investing. For enthusiastic amateurs who want to take their understanding to the next level, I haven't found anywhere better than Realvision.
  • ML
    Mantas L.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:02
    Raoul is misinterpreting TomTom traffic data - it's showing congestion % not capacity. For example if Singapore roads are big enough to handle 1M cars at a time and currently 1M cars are going around, TomTom will show 0% congestion. I just checked webcams in Singapore and there's plenty of traffic, not 99% down.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      2 May 2020 @ 06:21
      I don't think what your saying is right. I'm looking at the data now and last year at this time it was at 60% during peak hours. Right now it is pretty much zero. By your logic traffic has boomed to record levels during a shutdown. Also what happens if there is more than 1M cars on the road? There is no negative on the y axis but they have over 100%. If you are right, over 100% would mean negative cars on the road.
    • ML
      Mantas L.
      2 May 2020 @ 12:11
      Duane, the % measure is the amount of time it takes you to drive compared to perfect traffic flow (perfect flow doesn't mean zero cars - evidence Bangkok at night). Look at Manila - last year it was 150% (it means instead of 20min no congestion it takes to drive 50min to your destination). On a side - look at Vilnius, Lithuania. Currently it's at more congestion than last year during the weekends.
    • VK
      Vaclav K.
      2 May 2020 @ 19:09
      Singapour traffic is really really down. So much that it seems like an error. See https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/singapore-traffic Taipei is around 25-33% down YoY at peak hours. https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/taipei-traffic and on weekend peaks around 50% down YoY
    • JC
      John C.
      3 May 2020 @ 07:43
      Of all the countries out there the US is one of the least dense in most places. People generally have homes and use cars mostly to get around. And gas is super cheap. So I could see consumers in the US coming out en masse to shop when restrictions are lifted. Whether they have jobs and enough money to pay for things is another matter, but the US is an entirely different animal re comsumer spending. We shall see.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    3 May 2020 @ 06:08
    So refreshing! Thank you...
  • je
    james e.
    2 May 2020 @ 20:00
    Terrific, as always. Since we all feel like we know Raoul, how about he take us on a tour of his home. Also, dog type/name, who was working in the background (on the computer), did they confirm that his wife had CV and is she fully recovered? RV just gets better and better. And, Ash is terrific. Just a daily workhorse who really gets it and knows how to distill information to what's important. Thx
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      2 May 2020 @ 22:38
      Hi, James. Ha. Yes. Well said. That's a great compliment.
  • SF
    Scott F.
    2 May 2020 @ 21:39
    Awesome - Thanks Guys!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    2 May 2020 @ 21:02
    Bill Gates talked about becoming the first trillionaire in 2014.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 20:14
    Since the rest of the world cannot afford to import much from anywhere, it would be reasonable for China to open factories that improve its own infrastructure. I would be opening factories manufacturing solar panels and windmills to keep reducing oil imports. At these prices, I would also increase China's oil reserves. There must be a thousand areas that China can spend on to improve its own infrastructure. Consumer spending is the next leg up for the Chinese economy. Lots of research and thinking to improve the sanitary standards of the wet markets. Should the sale of some wild animals be banned? DLS
  • MK
    Malcolm K.
    2 May 2020 @ 20:02
    Hi Diane
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 06:15
    I'll grant you this, Wuhan is definitely much less congested on weekends, like RP says. But don't even look at Singapore unless you dare. OMG. You know those scenes in movies when the ECG flatlines and the nurses and doctors all hang their heads and say, "we did everything we could...." ? Yeah, that's Singapore traffic congestion.
    • AA
      Anthony A.
      2 May 2020 @ 19:06
      I'm in Singapore and I only come out of my apartment once a week to buy groceries - the rest of shopping is done online
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    2 May 2020 @ 18:40
    Good insight and detail in a short time. Great conversation.
  • RT
    Rob T.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:53
    Appreciate the market commentary. One of the clear things is market data quality is terrible at the moment. Another is that the retail investor has flooded into the market. Given the rebound, lack of alternative gambling venues, and lack of cash flow, the stock market is a great environment. Would RealVision be able to put together a video about their analytics related to the retrospective of the RealVision performance and audience from January 2020 to present? Talk to us about subscription rates, video performance, video commentary, views.
    • TC
      Thomas C.
      2 May 2020 @ 00:49
      Yep, I've had several friends who have close to no investing experience ask what they should buy, expressing concern on missing out on the rally, asking if it's a good idea to borrow money. The narrative of a 'hope' rally (I think people who've missed out on this 10 year bull market (millenials) and have been waiting on a dip to buy are a big factor in this rally just based off of my own anecdotal experiences ;) ) seems to fit quite well at the moment. Not to mention classic rally with diminishing volume and long term topping pattern in stock markets...
    • RT
      Rob T.
      2 May 2020 @ 17:03
      Check out RobinTrack? Wow... https://robintrack.net
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 02:17
    Current bond interest rates are the net of the best guesses of bond traders in a completely opaque future. They may be better guesses than the stock market, but they are still the best guesses with skin in the game. The fact that the initial phase may look like other financial crises may just be a normal market reaction to a major crisis – an overly held belief in Fibonacci retracements by programmers. The end of the pandemic is not financial but medical. It will be determined by better treatments during the pandemic and a distribution all over the world of a viable vaccine. Everyone is working as hard as possible on both, but the timing of both are impossible to know. Ultimately, each person will have to balance his/her risk of infection and death against the absolute need to provide for their family. Certainly this is on the level of Sophie’s Choice. There may be more life insurance policies purchased that do not exclude death by COVID-19 as a last-ditch effort to protect loved ones as people reenter the workforce. DLS
    • FB
      Frank B.
      2 May 2020 @ 02:47
      Yes! His macro is on point with what’s going on right now!
    • DS
      David S.
      2 May 2020 @ 17:02
      Frank B. - If you mean Mr. Pal's macro is on point, I agree. My caution is about sizing your position. You can increase your position quickly as the picture clears up. DLS
  • AG
    Amol G.
    2 May 2020 @ 14:21
    Ash is a superb moderator in always bringing conversation back to meaningful points. Raoul as always is a king of insight and analyzing data in a way that no one does or can. Love RV
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      2 May 2020 @ 16:45
      Totally agree! Thanks for the kind words, Amol.
  • JP
    J P.
    2 May 2020 @ 02:45
    As I went through the PPP process I realized a couple of things. My employees would have made as much money on unemployment. Second I haven’t spoke to an expert about this but after reading the PPP it’s seems I could have furloughed my people until 6/31 had them collect unemployment and I still could have had forgiven PPP if i brought them back 6/31. I didn’t put this strategy in place I kept my people on, but it’s interesting how much this is increasing unemployment #s. Looking back if I let them off for a couple months and still got PPP that woulda been a profitable move. I am sure larger companies with HR or advisors are maxing this out.
    • PW
      Paul W.
      2 May 2020 @ 15:23
      You could not have brought your employees back on 6/31. Maybe 6/30 or 7/1.
  • AS
    ANDREW S.
    2 May 2020 @ 14:43
    Great update, thanks.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    2 May 2020 @ 13:02
    Love the update thanks
  • PM
    Philip M.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:47
    Link for Raoul. https://stratechery.com/2020/facebook-earnings-auction-dynamics-full-steam-ahead/ Direct response advertising functions very differently than brand advertising.
  • RP
    Richard P.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:34
    Great work chaps. Keep it up
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    2 May 2020 @ 10:31
    the way the mic changed when Raoul said "fear" - gave me shudders!
  • FB
    Frank B.
    2 May 2020 @ 10:03
    Brilliant episode. Seeing your dog sleeping peacefully behind you makes me think pet dogs may be the secret winners in these times. They are simply not bothered with our complex world and are happy to have their humans around much more than usual.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:44
    Actually, I just checked TomTom. Fwiw, Shanghai, M-F mid day, traffic is down approx. 15%. On weekends, traffic is down between 10-40%. Weekends are not down 80% like Raoul says. To be sure, traffic is down by a noteworthy amount. But 80% is a jaw-dropping number. The data does not indicate that.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      2 May 2020 @ 09:58
      If you"re looking at the 7 day chart like me, then you need to know that this week had unusual working days in China. Saturday April 25 was off but Sunday was a working day. May 1-5 are public holidays.
  • GD
    Guv D.
    2 May 2020 @ 08:57
    nice to see Raoul's bed being made in the backgrond while he does the video. ;-)
    • MD
      Michael D.
      2 May 2020 @ 09:36
      Yes. Amazing interview but that was a little distracting.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    2 May 2020 @ 08:03
    excellent thank you so much
  • MT
    Mark T.
    1 May 2020 @ 23:24
    Great segment today. Ash, you do a really good job of not taking the bait... It's really, really, really easy to bash trump and foxnews, and you stay very apolitical; Good job in your line of work. West coast (best coast) is very much the opposite of East Coast/DC mentality. Grew up in the PNW and live there now, but lived in a lot of places including the South and New York area. Much more independence of thought here, less tied to dogma of the past, so Raoul was very close to the mark there. Amazon is a retailer, that applies tech to it's business. I worked there for two years and absolutely hated it, as the NYT article said it's a place where over-achievers go to feel bad about themselves. They've completely skewed the Seattle housing market which is only good for existing homeowners. I think they are an anomaly of history, the Sears & Roebuck of the 21st century. They thrive because Americans are lazy and consumerist, so it will be interesting to see how they get caught up in all this. Their customers are becoming unemployed and won't be able to spend on discretionary items, and Whole Foods isn't where everyone shops. I only order very large, heavy items from them, like 35lbs of dog food, because I know they lose money on that. :-)
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      2 May 2020 @ 05:09
      Thanks, Mark!
    • RT
      Rob T.
      2 May 2020 @ 06:48
      Based on the earnings this week and the "non-guidance" offered, it would appear to be performance was great but won't be so rosy, that the google search acceleration isn't necessarily "monetizable", etc. These companies have a bullseye on their back from any country looking to shore up their tax revenues so one should watch their narrative carefully over the coming quarters, and expect the inverse story in top line numbers. With the destruction of smaller localized competitors, opportunity to reduce payouts on ad commissions (likely forever), the great opportunity to optimize warehouse operations with increased surveillance and automation etc likely has a higher NPV than is being floated.
  • AS
    Ash S.
    2 May 2020 @ 06:12
    Really enjoying the market highlights from Jack at the start of the daily briefing. Hope you keep this up! (Though I think you meant to say demand for oil is for more elastic than supply :). I'm a very happy subscriber, listening to RV content really is the highlight of my day!
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    2 May 2020 @ 04:41
    Ash, Raul and Hugh all in one day. Can't get better than this. Hendry had me in stitches talking about his missus dumping his coveted book collection. " but I know she loves me." lol.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      2 May 2020 @ 05:08
      Thanks, Alexander. It's much appreciated.
  • II
    Ian I.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:13
    Hey guys, https://wilhelmsen.com/ships-agency/campaigns/coronavirus/coronavirus-map/ Just wanted to share this, nothing mind blowing, but it shows the countries that are opening up to shipping. According to this the UK & Canada is all good for a crew change...without conditions, shore leave is even permitted.
  • CP
    CRAIG P.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:01
    My gosh! The population of Raoul’s home on Little Cayman has grown by 200 percent (and a dog)! Raoul is saved! LOL
  • PR
    Peter R.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:55
    Sounds like Elon is Bipolar.
  • JD
    John D.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:52
    Well, they were responsible weren't they. Reparations for the economic / humanitarian costs would be helpful.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:32
    Raoul - what's the dog's name? Very mellow -
  • DS
    David S.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:27
    Amazon is projecting spending the $4billion profits on PPE and COVID-19 related efforts in the 2Q2020. This is a cost of doing business to protect Amazon employees, clean up Amazon warehouses and distribution systems, and other COVID-19 related efforts. At some level this will be a significant cost to all companies who choose to reopen. DLS
  • BM
    Brent M.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:11
    Best Daily Review of the week for sure. Thanks, guys.
  • GC
    Gift C.
    1 May 2020 @ 23:11
    Where is the data for crude demand for supply coming from?
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      1 May 2020 @ 23:52
      Hi Gift, data comes from Department of Energy but is sourced through Bloomberg.
  • nr
    nicholas r.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:53
    Dumb question, but i have been trying to figure this out for a while now... What is the charting software that Raoul got that graph from? Thanks in advance!
    • nr
      nicholas r.
      1 May 2020 @ 23:12
      I think I found it! Bloomberg Terminal :)
  • AD
    Adrian D.
    1 May 2020 @ 23:00
    Evening thanks again Ash and Raoul for a great Daily, from a boots on the ground perspective, our company has just had a 1.5 million wind energy contract cancelled from out of Spain as the funding engineer. Also another customer in Toyota motor manufacturing, has just informed us they doing a 35% capacity restart to "see" how it functions in social distancing environment as of May 18 possibly. Yet markets up so nothing to see here, everything is fine! Ha! See you all next week! Thank you.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:50
    RE: Elon, Tom Thornton (Hedge Fund Telemetry) put it best today when he asked, "Cracked or Hacked?"