Comments
Transcript
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SPJ Crew is a terrible example of anything. Literally no one cares or wears J Crew. Maybe in 2001. Americans have closets today which could last for a century. We need to shape up our spending and spend frugal, seriously. Smarter to own 4 jeans of great quality than buy a cheap pair every couple months.
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RMIt’s really good
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OCCaptions, please. Thank you very much!
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BGIs there a way of listening the content audio only on Real Vision app with the screen off? I wanted to listen to one episode but it stops every time I turn off the screen, couldn't figure out how to fix it. Any ideas? Thanks
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DSIf medical science can find better ways of treating COVID-19 so a patient can recover at home like a "regular flu" without an ICU visit, then our options are must better. Currently it is rational to believe that ending social distancing will overwhelm ICUs. Many people feel that this is an acceptable outcome - like lemmings they believe we must accept death as part of the recovery. It is too difficult to state it this simply, so denial is easier - It is just the flu. (Personally, I do not think lemmings jump to their deaths to balance populations. It is just a “follow the herd instinct” without rational thought. Similar to migrating gazelle necessity to cross crocodile infested rivers. Enough of the gazelles make it through to keep the species going.) DLS
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WCRaoul your analysis has been spot on leading to this event although one aspect missing from the current macro framework is that the governments and central banks will stop at nothing this time around. No amount of money printing/fiscal response is too large to stem the ongoing economic issues. Comparing for example in 2008/09 when the banking system took a prolonged period to fix, compared to this time where credit markets area essentially functioning normally with issuance and demand both healthy. The speed and magnitude of the policy response in this particular downturn has been staggering. "The Nuclear Option" was good and would be really interesting if RV was able to do more episode/interview/research piece purely on the current policy response.
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DSMr. Bennington: Just for fun. The following is a great quote: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Quote Investigator lists the possible authors as: - Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? and Anonymous. Personally, I think it fits Yogi Berra the best. DLS
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MKIn my view Sweden understand the issue: the whole population will get the virus, no matter what. The "normal" flu virus is already very contagious and also almost everybody gets it every year. So ... total lockdown to infect as few people as possible is insane. The only thing necessary is to slow down the infection rate so that hospitals will not be full like in Italy. This means that governments that are focused on infecting as few people as possible will have panic reactions when the second wave comes.
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LSRaoul, I also would like to see your answer to Kelly O's question below, but I find it odd that you often add to the fear mongering going on here with the media. I'm talking about how at around (just before) the 14:00 mark you talk about traffic. We are just coming out of this, the recency and media biases are huge, and many "orders" exist all around the USA and even the world telling people actively NOT to do anything. Yet you act like the current behavior is suggestive of what it will be like. Granted, I think the point on subsequent shutdowns is real and a danger to economies, namely small businesses and real capital endeavors, but it is still a comment on authoritarian governments than it is on what is "really going on in the world" vis a vis the virus, which does not cause significant symptoms in 99.9% of people. I think you should stick to the real problems at hand, that is, the Fed last bullets being forced by this, the real problems moving ahead with the stronger dollar, and the debt scenarios with the major demographic problems which are multifactorial. Those are things you have spoken eloquently and accurately on and are by far the most important. The artificial shutdown of the economy due to a not-so-lethal virus has always been something far less meaningful in the big picture to those of us who know what it is (especially with all the new data supporting this time and again), than the problems of authoritarian governments and out of control central banks/debt.
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RRI would like to comment on Raoul being puzzled about Elon and explain what he means with all his tweets. He’s basically saying the corona numbers make no sense, the public consciousness Is unaware of what’s really going on, to get out of the stock market, real estate is going to also take a huge dive and calling upon the patriots of the USA to stand up and fight. His profile picture is an old video game called Dues Ex. Look up the plot of that game if you want to get even deeper. Yes you will need your tin foil hat, but if some of you have already figured out things are usually not what they appear then you understand he's saying what he wants to say under the radar so he doesn't get totally hammered by the controlled media.
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MRGuess Friday is laundry day in the Pal household :)
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NMAnybody know a broker that offers USD/SAR or USD/AED ? Preferably with Margin
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JRA great interviewer and a great interviewee. Love the insights and the enthusiasm.
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DSComment from Mr. Ollari's interview with Mr. Pal - I believe Mr. Ollari said 35% non-check payments assets. This could be precious metals and digital currency. Any other ideas? If the transcript does not make these assets clear, maybe Mr. Pal could follow up and ask in general what is in the 35%. It would be a nice addition to any Daily Briefing. DLS
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DSMost of MMT to the lower income group will be spent. MMT to the wealth will be passively invested or held in cash equivalents. DLS
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JCFascinating conversation. Raoul definitely ups the ante when he is on. Would like to hear more about the darker side of Silicon Valley. We all know how incredible the rise of Apple, Google, FB etc. have been but what about the more recent worrisome side(s)? Surveillance capitalism, lobbying Congress to enact their rules and insulate themselves fron competition, monopolistic behavior while not paying taxes, dirty startup money funding from Saudi & China, banning opposing viewpoints online on Twitter, YouTube, FB etc. etc. Increasingly these behemoth companies do not seem to be proponents of free speech let along a fair business environment. And after using wide open laissez-fair capitalist means to grow and dominate (while not paying much if anything in taxes) the founders of these companies such as Bezos & Zuckerberg, quite hypocritically, seem to push for more and more socialist policies & behavior now that they essentially make the rules.
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KORaoul, does your macro view take into consideration the “pandemic” might be totally overblown (either intentionally or unintentionally)? Per CDC website (link below), they have recorded 37,308 Covid-19 deaths for the USA between Feb 1st thru Apr 25th, which I’ll point out is 70+% fewer than for pneumonia during the same timeframe. Could the economy come roaring back if this is later determined to be no more threatening (to society as a whole) then the seasonal flu or pneumonia?...as that appears to be the case from the data so far. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/ Appreciate your thoughtful perspective.
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LvWonderful segment. Thank you so much, I saw today that the confirmed cases in Georgia doubled from yesterday according to Worldometer, so I suppose we all will keep a close eye on that development. I am still very interested in getting some input on recommendations on how to allocate funds inside a retirement account, since Bitcoin is not an option for that, real estate other than REITs are not an option either, let alone physical gold. So what would be the recommended way of action for someone, who is about 10 years away and wants to make sure to stay ahead of these rollercoaster times? Thank you
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SSGovernments will have no choice but to open everything. Killing the patient to cure the disease? WHO & CDC is now our doctors, by their suggested guidelines being "enforced" by state, city & local governments. WTH. Like I trust these socialists. Bill Gates wants to inject/sell everyone on the planet with his vaccines and tests. He clearly states this on video several times. Vaccines don't fall into the "drug" category of regulation. Can't sue the manufacture, provider or injector. 60% success rate on vaccines. Cause and effect of such injections? How in the hell have we the people allowed these monsters to take over the world? Is there going to be war, civil unrest and further destruction on the "fear" of a virus, which based on CDC numbers, is less than the worldwide flu sickness and death each year? There really needs to be an investigation into this human tragedy.
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RAI don’t know where you’re getting your data Singapore from, but it’s wrong. I should know, I live in Singapore and I work in the public sector out here. There have been two occasions where Raoul has stated something incorrect about how Singapore is handling virus mitigation and once when Roger Hirst did the same. Just to clarify, Singapore has never eased its lockdown, it did not attempt any form of reopening. Restaurants have remained closed ever since lockdown began.
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DPIf you think Balaji was great, interview Chamath.
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DSIf this pandemic lasts, major rent reductions will be the first and most important single life and death strategy negotiated from small businesses too large corporations. If a landlord kicks out a restaurant for not paying rent, who will they be able to rent to at the old price? Who wants and empty restaurant, office space, retail store, etc.? Landlords are partners in the success of each property. When the money stream is cut in half, something must give. This may even save the bacon in Asheville, NC. This is not surprising, just common sense. DLS
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RAPlease have Raoul do more of the daily briefs. Always the best. Also looking forward to hearing more about the halvening
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MLRaoul is misinterpreting TomTom traffic data - it's showing congestion % not capacity. For example if Singapore roads are big enough to handle 1M cars at a time and currently 1M cars are going around, TomTom will show 0% congestion. I just checked webcams in Singapore and there's plenty of traffic, not 99% down.
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NLSo refreshing! Thank you...
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jeTerrific, as always. Since we all feel like we know Raoul, how about he take us on a tour of his home. Also, dog type/name, who was working in the background (on the computer), did they confirm that his wife had CV and is she fully recovered? RV just gets better and better. And, Ash is terrific. Just a daily workhorse who really gets it and knows how to distill information to what's important. Thx
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SFAwesome - Thanks Guys!
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SSBill Gates talked about becoming the first trillionaire in 2014.
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DSSince the rest of the world cannot afford to import much from anywhere, it would be reasonable for China to open factories that improve its own infrastructure. I would be opening factories manufacturing solar panels and windmills to keep reducing oil imports. At these prices, I would also increase China's oil reserves. There must be a thousand areas that China can spend on to improve its own infrastructure. Consumer spending is the next leg up for the Chinese economy. Lots of research and thinking to improve the sanitary standards of the wet markets. Should the sale of some wild animals be banned? DLS
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MKHi Diane
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DSI'll grant you this, Wuhan is definitely much less congested on weekends, like RP says. But don't even look at Singapore unless you dare. OMG. You know those scenes in movies when the ECG flatlines and the nurses and doctors all hang their heads and say, "we did everything we could...." ? Yeah, that's Singapore traffic congestion.
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DMGood insight and detail in a short time. Great conversation.
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RTAppreciate the market commentary. One of the clear things is market data quality is terrible at the moment. Another is that the retail investor has flooded into the market. Given the rebound, lack of alternative gambling venues, and lack of cash flow, the stock market is a great environment. Would RealVision be able to put together a video about their analytics related to the retrospective of the RealVision performance and audience from January 2020 to present? Talk to us about subscription rates, video performance, video commentary, views.
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DSCurrent bond interest rates are the net of the best guesses of bond traders in a completely opaque future. They may be better guesses than the stock market, but they are still the best guesses with skin in the game. The fact that the initial phase may look like other financial crises may just be a normal market reaction to a major crisis – an overly held belief in Fibonacci retracements by programmers. The end of the pandemic is not financial but medical. It will be determined by better treatments during the pandemic and a distribution all over the world of a viable vaccine. Everyone is working as hard as possible on both, but the timing of both are impossible to know. Ultimately, each person will have to balance his/her risk of infection and death against the absolute need to provide for their family. Certainly this is on the level of Sophie’s Choice. There may be more life insurance policies purchased that do not exclude death by COVID-19 as a last-ditch effort to protect loved ones as people reenter the workforce. DLS
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AGAsh is a superb moderator in always bringing conversation back to meaningful points. Raoul as always is a king of insight and analyzing data in a way that no one does or can. Love RV
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JPAs I went through the PPP process I realized a couple of things. My employees would have made as much money on unemployment. Second I haven’t spoke to an expert about this but after reading the PPP it’s seems I could have furloughed my people until 6/31 had them collect unemployment and I still could have had forgiven PPP if i brought them back 6/31. I didn’t put this strategy in place I kept my people on, but it’s interesting how much this is increasing unemployment #s. Looking back if I let them off for a couple months and still got PPP that woulda been a profitable move. I am sure larger companies with HR or advisors are maxing this out.
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ASGreat update, thanks.
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AmLove the update thanks
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PMLink for Raoul. https://stratechery.com/2020/facebook-earnings-auction-dynamics-full-steam-ahead/ Direct response advertising functions very differently than brand advertising.
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RPGreat work chaps. Keep it up
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TSthe way the mic changed when Raoul said "fear" - gave me shudders!
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FBBrilliant episode. Seeing your dog sleeping peacefully behind you makes me think pet dogs may be the secret winners in these times. They are simply not bothered with our complex world and are happy to have their humans around much more than usual.
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DSActually, I just checked TomTom. Fwiw, Shanghai, M-F mid day, traffic is down approx. 15%. On weekends, traffic is down between 10-40%. Weekends are not down 80% like Raoul says. To be sure, traffic is down by a noteworthy amount. But 80% is a jaw-dropping number. The data does not indicate that.
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GDnice to see Raoul's bed being made in the backgrond while he does the video. ;-)
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IPexcellent thank you so much
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MTGreat segment today. Ash, you do a really good job of not taking the bait... It's really, really, really easy to bash trump and foxnews, and you stay very apolitical; Good job in your line of work. West coast (best coast) is very much the opposite of East Coast/DC mentality. Grew up in the PNW and live there now, but lived in a lot of places including the South and New York area. Much more independence of thought here, less tied to dogma of the past, so Raoul was very close to the mark there. Amazon is a retailer, that applies tech to it's business. I worked there for two years and absolutely hated it, as the NYT article said it's a place where over-achievers go to feel bad about themselves. They've completely skewed the Seattle housing market which is only good for existing homeowners. I think they are an anomaly of history, the Sears & Roebuck of the 21st century. They thrive because Americans are lazy and consumerist, so it will be interesting to see how they get caught up in all this. Their customers are becoming unemployed and won't be able to spend on discretionary items, and Whole Foods isn't where everyone shops. I only order very large, heavy items from them, like 35lbs of dog food, because I know they lose money on that. :-)
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ASReally enjoying the market highlights from Jack at the start of the daily briefing. Hope you keep this up! (Though I think you meant to say demand for oil is for more elastic than supply :). I'm a very happy subscriber, listening to RV content really is the highlight of my day!
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AMAsh, Raul and Hugh all in one day. Can't get better than this. Hendry had me in stitches talking about his missus dumping his coveted book collection. " but I know she loves me." lol.
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INHey guys, https://wilhelmsen.com/ships-agency/campaigns/coronavirus/coronavirus-map/ Just wanted to share this, nothing mind blowing, but it shows the countries that are opening up to shipping. According to this the UK & Canada is all good for a crew change...without conditions, shore leave is even permitted.
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CPMy gosh! The population of Raoul’s home on Little Cayman has grown by 200 percent (and a dog)! Raoul is saved! LOL
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PRSounds like Elon is Bipolar.
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JDWell, they were responsible weren't they. Reparations for the economic / humanitarian costs would be helpful.
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MFRaoul - what's the dog's name? Very mellow -
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DSAmazon is projecting spending the $4billion profits on PPE and COVID-19 related efforts in the 2Q2020. This is a cost of doing business to protect Amazon employees, clean up Amazon warehouses and distribution systems, and other COVID-19 related efforts. At some level this will be a significant cost to all companies who choose to reopen. DLS
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BMBest Daily Review of the week for sure. Thanks, guys.
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GCWhere is the data for crude demand for supply coming from?
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nrDumb question, but i have been trying to figure this out for a while now... What is the charting software that Raoul got that graph from? Thanks in advance!
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ADEvening thanks again Ash and Raoul for a great Daily, from a boots on the ground perspective, our company has just had a 1.5 million wind energy contract cancelled from out of Spain as the funding engineer. Also another customer in Toyota motor manufacturing, has just informed us they doing a 35% capacity restart to "see" how it functions in social distancing environment as of May 18 possibly. Yet markets up so nothing to see here, everything is fine! Ha! See you all next week! Thank you.
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JHRE: Elon, Tom Thornton (Hedge Fund Telemetry) put it best today when he asked, "Cracked or Hacked?"