Hi, Bart. If you click the audio button, you can download the audio only MP3 file and listen to it on any mp3 player. Hope that helps.

Bart, if you have an iPhone, I stumbled upon an odd workaround to stream and listen: 1) Play a video on your Real Vision app, 2) Navigate to your home screen - the audio will stop. 3) Slide down on the top right to access your quick control panel, and click the play button. The audio will resume playing. 4) Now lock your screen and continue listening.

Thanks Rishi, works perfectly !

"Currently it is rational to believe that ending social distancing will overwhelm ICUs" No it is not. Social distancing has not done anything, and you have zero support for it scientifically. Stop the fear mongering. We have flattened the curve, now the prolongation keeps going precisely because this is not, and NEVER was, about science.

Lemony S.- Just in case you are not correct, I am not visiting COVID-19 wards for now. DLS

Ha. Yes! I looked it up in QI, too!

Ash, I’d love to hear how a cure/vaccine for COVID affects Raouls insolvency event? If a cure/vaccine comes in within 12 months, my assumption is that behavior should change again and demand/consumption will get back to normal. How long does the lockdown have to last for the solvency event to occur?

Bill Gates has been studying these diseases for many years and works with the best in the world to solve this problem. In his interview on 60 Minutes this week said it was not possible to have a cure by the end of the year. It just takes time. 18 months is optimistic. Then months or years to develop and roll out to people. This will take years.

The self fulfilling prophecy that is totally ignorant of actual science, particularly of respiratory illnesses = slowing herd immunity only produces more problems. See my authoritarian posts below.

Things are not as clear cut as they seem at first sight. First of all, the flu has on average an R-0 of around 1.3. It is contageous but there is a huge difference with COVID-19 that has on average an R-0 in the range 2.5 - 3 (maybe more). In practice this means that the flu can infect about 1 - 1/1.3 ~ 23% of the population before herd immunity is reached (meaning that R becomes effectively 1 or lower). In reality there are seasonal effects that reduce R in summer time and as such reduce the actual % needed for herd immunity. COVID-19 is much more contageous and needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity is reached. Also, seasonal impacts are expected to be minimal based on the info we have to date. Requiring 2/3rd of the population to have herd immunity is basically mass murder considering that 0.5 - 1% of the infected will die even with proper hospitalization. So it is not in Sweden's interest to work towards herd immunity either. They do have two advantages. First, they did not have large community spreading. This was a problem in NY, Italy, Spain but also for France, Netherlands, Belgium and regions in Germany that all got infected by having many residents in the heavily infected Italy-Austria region during the skiing season. So they did not need to contain a sudden outburst. Second they have a low population density. Outside the major city areas, R-0 will be much lower than average simply because interaction between people is very muted. So they can contain it better. However, there are reports that Stockholm is a major problem area so I expect them to step up before the public speaks up or the medical system breaks down. Regarding the risk of a second wave. Currently, countries with a high number of infections (Belgium, Italy etc) have about 5% of their population infected while countries with almost no infections (Denmark, NZ etc) have close to 0% of their population infected. 5% or even 10% is too to avoid second wave. We also don't know if those who have been infected have sufficient immunity when the second wave comes. Even herd immunity may not protect us.

I think you have to look at NY. Where I live. Approximately 18,000 people are dead so far. With an estimated 14 percent of people in the state infected.( .0066 mortality rate). However most of the numbers are down state. Also it has mainly hit nursing homes, people with high blood pressure and with high blood sugar. Thus you really have to dig into the numbers to see how you can open up the economy. People who are high risk should quarantine and should be given extra services and help. Everyone else should go about their lives with precautions. I have read so many conflicting facts on masks and social distancing that I have nothing to add. You also have to look at the toll the shutdown and quarantine is taking. Depression, going off the sober wagon, putting off medical procedures or even being afraid of going to emergency room. These numbers could be much higher then the actual disease. The sensible approach is to have a multilayer plan for different groups of people. PS. I used to take the subway extensively. No way I will do this till there is either a cure or vaccine. The workers in the subway are a group that was/is hit hard. They think it is that the workers are in closed crowded places for extended times. In the end this is one of those things that is a moving target and You make the best decision with the facts you have and if the facts change you change what you do. The Demming method on steroids. Plan Do Check Act.

"The artificial shutdown of the economy due to a not-so-lethal virus has always been something far less meaningful in the big picture ..." What are your sources to claim that COVID-19 it is "not-so-lethal" and only causes significant symptoms in 99.9% of people? Latest research points to a casualty rate of 0.5 to 1% and assumes that the medical system is able to support the critical patients (if not, it will be much worse). Without measures that slow-down the epidemic (and impact the economy), about 60-70% will be infected before the epidemic is over. This would happen before a vaccine can slow down the epidemic. So, assuming that the medical system keeps up, we are talking about at least 1 million deaths in the US. The virus is a big part of the macro picture. It sets (necessary) barriers and limits where there weren't any prior to the epidemic and impacts the psychology of both consumer and employee. Lifting those barriers and limits when the virus is still spread throughout the community will not solve the second issue, on the contrary. If more and more people are impacted by the virus in their own circle of family and friends because the state or city doesn't protect their health, their fear will only increase.

Every antibody test done in northern, southern california, Miami, NYC, Massachusetts and around the world. They all show the same thing, millions of people with antibodies, and infection related deaths as small, or smaller, than seasonal flu. Every. single. one. I'm sure Dr. Katz is also lying in his interview with Bill Maher, that John Ioannides prediction was wrong (hint, it wasn't), that multiple scientists regardless of politics all say the same thing when confronted with the real data. This virus came and went regardless of what anyone did (see another scientist from another country, Isaac ben Israel), they have the same curve that is not statistically different ANYwhere.

"Every antibody test done in northern, southern california, Miami, NYC, Massachusetts and around the world. They all show the same thing, millions of people with antibodies, and infection related deaths as small, or smaller, than seasonal flu. Every. single. one." Antibody tests in Belgium show that 4.6% of the population is infected and about 7500 died from COVID. This would amount to a 1.5% casualty rate but excluding the deaths in elderly homes (for which the COVID is not always certain), the actual casualty rate is about 0.75%. This excludes all those who may still die in the future due to complications.

Question Everything.

Elon is for the people!

I am thinking that Elon see a threat to his car company with cheap oil, an abundance of competitor stock, a public that is unlikely to buy new cars and supply chain pressures. 30% of the parts for his cars in China come from the US. Plus sourcing battery materials in a time when supply chains are uneven. I will believe him selling his possessions when he sells his jet.

Thanks, John!

Great comment, John. Sadly, with the increase in the size of government and dependence of our "leaders" on the sweet juice of lobbyists, thus lacking real principles, we have ceded much to alternative powers that combine to be enemies of the people. Decaying societies tend to devolve like this, so it's also not a coincidence we see debt also being taken to the brink.

I buy Bitcoin in my IRA via GBTC at Interactive Brokers.

If you are not allowed to buy physical gold you may be able to buy a closed end fund that holds bullion in a vault. You can look at PHYS which is just gold or CEF which I believe is a 70/30 mix of gold and silver.

Bitcoin (BTC) is the way out of all this mess. Physical gold: it is opaque (no one really knows what is going on), illiquid, inconvenient, expensive to verify, total supply is unverifiable, weak difficulty adjustment, no halving, easier to seize, at full adoption, and owned by central banks.

Everyone in the public sector still getting paid and have their jobs. So not feeling the pain as much. These public officials have been asleep at the wheel from the beginning so not sure how we can fully trust them to do the right thing. They mostly never have in the past why now?

You are spot on Sam S. For those following the mainstream media and who believe the hype, go look at the CDC website for the actual stats. From Feb. 1 thru Apr. 25th (2020) there have been 37,308 Vivid-19 deaths recorded in the entire USA. During this same timeframe there have been 64,382 pneumonia deaths (70%+ more!), and 719,438 all cause mortality deaths! The world has been such down for something less deadly than pneumonia or the flu. Something else is at play here. Raoul, does your macro view take this into account? And to Piggyback on Ronan’s comment below, I too believe this plays into why Elon is tweeting as he is. There is something else going on here, and if we’ve shut the world economy down over it, it must be big!

Chamath PLEASE!

YESS!!

Good points. Restaurant and retail industries in particular danger. Will our public officials and workers (who all are still getting paid and receiving benefits) feel enough of the private sector pain and do the math well enough to finally realize that we must eventually reopen gradually and safely? Right now the public sector does not seem to understand who ultimately pays their salaries and creates most of the jobs.

Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are opening now. This is part of the balance between stopping the virus and keeping the economy going. I hope that COVID-19 slows it spread during summer and we find many new treatments until the vaccine is available. There are no easy choices. Only time will tell. DLS

Agree. Raoul is the best

Yep. Raoul has some of the best insights I have heard in 12 years of DIY investing. For enthusiastic amateurs who want to take their understanding to the next level, I haven't found anywhere better than Realvision.

I don't think what your saying is right. I'm looking at the data now and last year at this time it was at 60% during peak hours. Right now it is pretty much zero. By your logic traffic has boomed to record levels during a shutdown. Also what happens if there is more than 1M cars on the road? There is no negative on the y axis but they have over 100%. If you are right, over 100% would mean negative cars on the road.

Duane, the % measure is the amount of time it takes you to drive compared to perfect traffic flow (perfect flow doesn't mean zero cars - evidence Bangkok at night). Look at Manila - last year it was 150% (it means instead of 20min no congestion it takes to drive 50min to your destination). On a side - look at Vilnius, Lithuania. Currently it's at more congestion than last year during the weekends.

Singapour traffic is really really down. So much that it seems like an error. See https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/singapore-traffic Taipei is around 25-33% down YoY at peak hours. https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/taipei-traffic and on weekend peaks around 50% down YoY

Of all the countries out there the US is one of the least dense in most places. People generally have homes and use cars mostly to get around. And gas is super cheap. So I could see consumers in the US coming out en masse to shop when restrictions are lifted. Whether they have jobs and enough money to pay for things is another matter, but the US is an entirely different animal re comsumer spending. We shall see.

Hi, James. Ha. Yes. Well said. That's a great compliment.

I'm in Singapore and I only come out of my apartment once a week to buy groceries - the rest of shopping is done online

Yep, I've had several friends who have close to no investing experience ask what they should buy, expressing concern on missing out on the rally, asking if it's a good idea to borrow money. The narrative of a 'hope' rally (I think people who've missed out on this 10 year bull market (millenials) and have been waiting on a dip to buy are a big factor in this rally just based off of my own anecdotal experiences ;) ) seems to fit quite well at the moment. Not to mention classic rally with diminishing volume and long term topping pattern in stock markets...

Check out RobinTrack? Wow... https://robintrack.net

Yes! His macro is on point with what’s going on right now!

Frank B. - If you mean Mr. Pal's macro is on point, I agree. My caution is about sizing your position. You can increase your position quickly as the picture clears up. DLS

Totally agree! Thanks for the kind words, Amol.

You could not have brought your employees back on 6/31. Maybe 6/30 or 7/1.

If you"re looking at the 7 day chart like me, then you need to know that this week had unusual working days in China. Saturday April 25 was off but Sunday was a working day. May 1-5 are public holidays.

Yes. Amazing interview but that was a little distracting.

Thanks, Mark!

Based on the earnings this week and the "non-guidance" offered, it would appear to be performance was great but won't be so rosy, that the google search acceleration isn't necessarily "monetizable", etc. These companies have a bullseye on their back from any country looking to shore up their tax revenues so one should watch their narrative carefully over the coming quarters, and expect the inverse story in top line numbers. With the destruction of smaller localized competitors, opportunity to reduce payouts on ad commissions (likely forever), the great opportunity to optimize warehouse operations with increased surveillance and automation etc likely has a higher NPV than is being floated.

Thanks, Alexander. It's much appreciated.

Hi Gift, data comes from Department of Energy but is sourced through Bloomberg.

I think I found it! Bloomberg Terminal :)