Comments
Transcript
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CRThe Transcript is not working for me. No PDF comes up... Still works for Raoul's interview with Kyle Bass
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TSFYI the anti-body test has been shown to be horribly inaccurate whereas the nasal test is very accurate
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BEWhy do I never hear anyone in America talk about the fact that the USA has about 4% of the world's population, and nearly 30% of the world's cases of the disease. You need to take a hard look at how you are running your country.
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AGMissing from the discussion is the business debt service, that is Ebitda or Ebit / Interest or interest in principal payments, One of the reason, I believe that we have seen such growth in corporate debt is that the cost of debt has fallen along with the treasury of course. Part of the triple BBB metric is Total Debt to Ebitda but no one seems to discuss or write much about debt service. I understand this in the case of refinancing at higher rates. I strongly believe that the FED no matter what will engineer low-interest rates and maybe even create an interest rate suppression to force inflation to monetize debt. they certainly did this after WW2. Although we also had the benefit of population growth that unless we allow immigration will be a big problem for the US. Just for a curious point the Williams Company a BBB company that has 4.4x debt to Ebitda ratio just issued a 30 year $1.0 billion bond with an interest rate of 3.5%. The actual issue price was 99.495%, so the yield is really 3.66%. The point with this and not to argue but all BBB are not the same and still, I do agree there will be a lot of debt deflation. Below someone added a comment about the comparison of the JGB and total Japan private sector debt to GDP. I will repeat my comment below here. If I remember correctly, much of the increase JGB debt to GDP in Japan is because the private debt to GDP is very low (a saving and older population-based society) thus the government needs to issue the debt to avoid GDP declines. It also helps greatly that Japan is a net exporter and that on only 12% of the JGB is held out of the country while in the US it is over 40%. This is a big problem for the US if US ever loses the dominant reserve currency status Sorry for being so long-winded
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DSJapan’s national debt as a percent of GDP is expected to reach about 250% at the end of 2020. It is simply misleading to comparing Japanese national debt percentage to GDP to the expected US national debt as a percentage to GDP which is expected to be about 110%. In one of Mr. Koo's presentations on RVTV he mentioned that the corporate sector drastically reduced corporate debt over a ten-year period while Japan was increasing its national debt. In America and elsewhere many CEOs increased debt to buy back stock to increase executive compensation without increasing net profits of the companies. In addition, the Japanese household debt is low and the Japanese household savings is high compared to the West. It would be interesting to see an apples to apples comparison with US debt, US corporate debt and US household debt. It would be a much different picture. DLS
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JFI really appreciate the story about your father’s doctor, Ash, and how it relates to lives vs the economy debate. I would gladly hand over my wealth to get my brother back who died from this punishing disease just last month; a loss that others don’t relate to because the suffering is happening to someone else. If I have to stay inside for another month or two or even three, knowing Im saving lives then so be it - glad to contribute to all lives that matter.
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JFGreat stuff all around. Sorry about the computer crash Ash but the new angle is a better framing for you. The blue glare in your glasses from your other device is gone and the view is more natural.
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DSMr. Harrison - Great information on the R naught factor in Germany changing from a low of 0.65 to 1.13 after opening. This is the first information I have seen. As we open we know there will be a difference in the spread of the virus. It is a price that many will have to risk to keep their families in food and shelter. Everyone needs to be as safe as they can be. We need better treatments ASAP, but before the Fall for sure. DLS
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DS"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher, October 21 1929 DCS
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PHEd. As a swede I have to say that your pronunciation of "Dagens Nyheter" is splendid. This will be a daily briefing I will return to.
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TZHow a debt jubilee would effect the global stock market? I think it would worth a video or even a week series, walking us through the steps and knock on effects! This event is definitely in the cards. Just look at European countries. Non of them can print their own money and the ECB's hand is right. At least up till now.
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JDI would love to hear a discussion about the bond market versus the stock market. Which is right and why?
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RMDon’t cry Ash. So you fried your computer with excessive porn surfing in the virus lockdown. These things happen. Best thing to do is try to spend some time each day in productive activity.
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PBHow can Iceland be back to 95% without tourism?
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AVMy view is that there is much questionable information on this virus, most hospitals and clinics are closed so sick people are concentrated in smaller pool of health facilities. Constant fear fed by media doesn't help our health, and after 2 months of lockdown people are unfit and disconnected from normal interaction with everyday bacteria and viruses that teach our immunity. The deaths rates of the virus. properly assessed needs to be compared to death rates from the lockdown side effects which will last well beyond the health crisis.
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DR“Best of luck to you” - Jack Epic!!!
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RSAsh the replacement computer actually has better sound than the old one, less echo. Although you face has become rather large. lol
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AmAsh - its more engaging with your camera lower, as per this interview. With your normal set you are not looking at the camera.
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MTIt's sad that people are dying from covid19, to be sure. I'm gathering that on top of what Ash spoke of, there is frustration in the blunt manner in which it's being dealt with and the changing narrative. Stay home to flatten the curve... okay. Now, stay home so nobody gets infected? That's just not possible. If we had competent leadership, and here is the frustration, we could approach this more surgically and protect the people who are really at risk and let the ones who aren't at risk, the vast majority of cases who's symptoms are mild or non-existent, carry on. Now, I have no idea why people with guns are entering state capitals and calling governors tyrants, that is just crazy sauce. These folks just don't understand the meaning of the word tyranny. When I think of tyranny, I think of Putin pushing dissenters out of 10 story apartment building windows.
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JDAsh Bennington can't help but reveal his prejudice through his generalisations.
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CBBeen following the covid situation fairly closely and have come to the point that it cannot be stopped, so what do we do? Stay at home waiting for a vaccine that may never come to fruition? Probably not. Granted we are all primarily here for economic insights, try this on for size. Its baffling that the majority of US citizenry is so broke that they cant live without a month or two worth of salary. The wealthiest country on earth, come on,,, really!???? Debt jubilee? Ok fine. The average citizen in most third world countries will survive and give zero shits because life goes on. Seems only the developed countries are gonna have a hard time dealing with this because guess what, the EMs are already accustomed to suffering. We shall see how it all plays out. Good luck consumer economies....