If Roger is talking about euro today it would be nice to get his take on this view from Stuart Allsop https://seekingalpha.com/article/4345867-fxe-real-yield-spreads-favor-euro

Ash: "Prescient" two syllables (not three). Please look it up. Other than that, you're always great.

the RV blog is a great idea. thank you all.

Instead of a blog, do open a https://slack.com/intl/en-in/ account. That way we can contribute as well. You can create multiple channels based on interest.

I think the source articles are a great idea, but the most natural way would be to post a sticky here for the discussion. Thanks guys-

Fauci has been wrong all the time ... This is the guy who is responsible in destroying US economy with lockdown. Sweden is doing very well without lockdown. Other than a few big cities, US is just like Sweden in population density.

Do you seriously think that people will book international travel knowing that there is no insurance coverage and they may be refused travel if they have symptoms or test positive? I have serious doubts about the psychology of that decision

On the tactical front, would you be able to get any sense on what is happening with after hours trading and it's impact on the current levels we are seeing the S&P? Is this a recent phenomenon or a recent market "quirk"? There seems to be a pattern of overnight trading that seems to help nudge the stocks up after hours. It's been earnings season so that's helped a bit but ever after the fact I've observed this behavior and it's rather disturbing.

Great breakdown boys, lack of price discovery is something I am interested in hearing a bit more about. Get Roger on asap!!!

I'm excited to have a blog too

Ash: Excuse the capitals. Just for highlighting the core idea. CREATE A VIRAL/ECONOMIC INDEX (BASED ON THE VIRAL OUTBREAK RATE) AS A GUIDE TO SHUTDOWN RULES AND ENDORSE NATIONALLY/GLOBALLY/REGIONALLY. CALIBRATE WHAT IS REASONABLE TO OPEN/QUARANTINE BASED ON THE INDEX NUMBER. I think what should work the best is a very reactive/proactive model, which provides an 'allowable' quantum of virus growth... the opening and closing is thus more closely correlated to balancing an acceptable viral rate... I think people are missing this. It is often an all or nothing approach...ie Open up fully or shut down fully. Neither of these are viable or realistic. It should be relatively doable to create a mathematical model which allows the targeted balancing of economic velocity with viral velocity... A kind of index that informs regional and national Goverment to attempt to manage this out at an ideal balance between loss of economy and loss of life. This all or nothing approach is naive in the extreme to me. There is no way that either extremes are viable. Eg. if 1.25 is the target on growth, then it creates an indicator for regional authorities to recalibrate shutdowns... The ideal outcome being partial shutdowns based on viral flares, with low scoring areas being more generous in allowing economic activity. It is not perfect, but it is the only solution that I can come up with. Without a cohesive National, and even global policy, we will see massive see-sawing for years to come.. my 5 cents... Ed

Assuming GDP growth y/y is the measure of economic recovery, if you look at the data going back to 1950 when GDP growth goes below -2% to -4% in the U.S. it has rebounded every time back in a V-shape (source: Haver Analytics). Every recession there is the debate about which shape it's going to be (U,W,L,Nike swoosh etc... you name it). It's prudent to go with the highest probability given historical data, which shows that since 1950 it has been V shaped every time. Like Ed says it is unlikely that once the U.S. comes out of lock-down that they will go back into a strict lock-down structure which means that the economy only get's better from here and risk assets should continue to do well. Fauci is a doctor and his job is to save lives from a medical perspective, he hasn't got policy experience when it comes to saving economies. Ash - like you say its about trade offs, and it seems no longer practical from a social, political and economic stand point to keep the U.S. economy closed.

Blog is a great idea.

The blog is a great idea!

Really like these daily videos, and the blog will be great. Adding a lot of value to my subscription.

Time for a hair cut Ash., no pun intended!

Very good.

I really enjoy these briefings. I especially appreciate the open minded, data driven attitude of Ash, Ed, and Roger (not to mention Raoul). The fact that they share their ideas freely, but with humility and a willingness to adapt to facts is awesome; the resulting conversations are both stimulative and informative (while never irritating). Keep it up! This is why I love RealVision.

Riveting stuff!

When talking about a recovery the only one that's a V is the qqq's. Guess the real world economy doesn't effect tech. Wait didn't we see this show in 99/2000 also. 🤔

In Iceland, what happens when ever few weeks several people show up and test positive? Who is going to pay for getting them back home and the care they would need while waiting to have that arranged? Iceland.

The blog idea sounds great!

Groundhog Day...

I always enjoy the back and forth in these Daily Briefings. Occasionally, however, there is something that makes me cringe. Ash cites these comments from Dr. Fauci as significant: And if there is a rush to reopen without following guidelines, “my concern is we will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks,” he said. “The consequences could be really serious.” In fact, he said opening too soon “could turn the clock back,” and that not only would cause “some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to try to get economic recovery.” Fauci comments 5/12/20. But, these are really just imprecise words commonly used by someone who is reluctant to give an opinion and wishes to avoid being pinned down. Fauci has been wrong plenty of times in the very recent past, so this is understandable ('go on a cruise', 'Americans should not worry about this virus'). This is a classic case of a prediction or predictions that experts tell us should not be relied upon. “Forecasters who use “a fair chance” and “a serious possibility” can even make the wrong-side-of-maybe fallacy work for them: If the event happens, “a fair chance” can retroactively be stretched to mean something considerably bigger than 50%—so the forecaster nailed it. If it doesn’t happen, it can be shrunk to something much smaller than 50%—and again the forecaster nailed it. With perverse incentives like these, it’s no wonder people prefer rubbery words over firm numbers.” -Excerpt From: Philip E. Tetlock, “Superforecasting," p. 129. This is exactly what Fauci is doing. Of course things "could" get worse and consequences "could" be serious. But, saying this adds nothing.

Ed with the 'L' ....shaped recovery thesis. Same as Rosie just said. I agree.

It is a trade off. Infectious diseases are a part of human life. So is having to work for a living for most people. If the government wants to prevent a second lock down, give folks confidence that if they do get sick, they won't go bankrupt. Provide free health care for patients with infectious diseases. Isolate and protect the at risk groups like the elderly and ones with comorbidity factors. Everyone else just needs to accept they may get sick, but at least they'll have a backstop if health care is provided for free. Paying for health care for these folks is probably a lot cheaper than -30% GDP and the trillions they are printing up. Just my opinion though.

What if the House and Senate can't agree on more stimulus? It feels like we need stocks to drop to bring back a sense of urgency.... meanwhile the losing stocks incl. banks keep diverging more from the winners

Great discussion gents, thanks!

Great idea to give us a list of the articles you read to prepare. Also, Ed's comment at the end that currencies are last bastion was spot on and intuitive. Good job guys!

btw Peter, I recommend DELL.

Humans will survive the Corona virus crisis, but what kind of world will we be living in? That is the question? DLS

I start to get addicted to these daily briefings. thanks guys.. great stuff.

That blog idea would be great

Always great analysis, but was surprised no one touched on the biggest U.S. number that came in today... Inflation at .3%

A feed of news would be great

As an aside. WebMd has a reference to COVID-19 and blood type. A Chinese study shows type O may be less susceptible and type A more susceptible - small study, no peer review yet. WebMd "The finding that blood type may affect COVID-19 risk could be important for healthcare workers treating COVID-19 patients, because those with A blood types" "might need particularly strengthened personal protection to reduce the chance of infection." DLS https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200320/blood-type-may-affect-covid19-risk-study