Comments
Transcript
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rwReally Really first 5 min was all about LGBTI persecution in Sth Korea? How many non muslims where beheaded in Nigeria today?
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PTRoger mentioned the benefits of a cheaper sterling for exporting UK products and services. Besides the City and oil in Scotland, what services and products does the UK export?
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EHGreat conversation. Always enjoying hearing from Roger and this was particularly insightful whistlestop tour of the markets and macro. Thank you.
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BHI prefer meat but NZ meat is cool.
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DLRegarding the airline discussion, wouldn't an alternative simply be fewer travelers (with maybe better service) at a higher ticket price? Perhaps we are headed back to the 1950's when restaurants and travel are pleasures for the well-to-do rather than more democratic pastimes as is now the case.
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JDAnecdotal, but my entire family, ~ 30 people, have all agreed to support local jobs, by consuming products/services from local vendors. Secondly, if an option is not locally available..we consume from countries that mirror our social values. Free speech, democracy etc.
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ATThanks guys for the discussion on Sterling. Interesting insights and funny how sentiment has flipped so quickly.
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KBAlways interesting listening to Roger. One of the main reasons I subscribed.
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IPexactly, you can save the firms and jobs and wipe out the investors, seems like everyone forgot this
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SGWhere do I get Roger's shirt? Serious question. Good briefing as always.
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APSir Roger Hirst, the Charles Colville of finance.
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AAGreat discussion guys! I really like game of playing different outcomes to expand our thinking on future possibilities
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DSMark T. - Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were the most common comorbidities among COVID-19 patients in the New York City area, according to a recent paper published in JAMA. This looks like a cross section of many Americans to me. This virus spreads from an infected person that has no symptoms. There is no clear and present danger. We are opening. We will have a second wave and probably a third wave like the Spanish Flu. We could have been prepared. We should have done a better job of shutting down. There is no way now to do a better job of opening. You quote statistics that it is reasonable to open and leave the old folds at home. It is rational. When one of your friends or family die that statistic no longer explains your situation. DLS
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APFinally. Somebody Arsenal gets a mention on RealVision. Now we're getting down to brass tacks - the things that matter #GOYG.
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BPGreat discussion as always! Just wanted to add a few comments on what's going on in Korea which is where I live, as some of the facts you shared seem a bit dated. Yes, new clusters from the clubs is an issue here, but not as significant as it is portrayed by the media - We certainly don't think this will cause a second wave. Daily new cases in Korea had stayed within single digit for some time, and the new cluster spiked that number back up to 30's but it is now down to teens. People worried much severer impact from this new clusters, but people now generally think it is mostly contained. People initially worried that this would cause huge privacy and discrimination issues against LGBT community as you said, but again, the government has continuously promised that their privacies will be protected if they cooperate. The government has identified and contacted most of the club visitors and the number of people still not identified is only 240, not 3000. Even though the daily new cases has been kept very low since mid-March, the government and general public have continuously been extremely cautious. The government has kept it very slow in loosening social distancing measures. We rarely see people not wearing masks in public and people still avoid large crowds. Many companies are continuing the WFH policies. Places like movie theaters, hotels and restaurants are still nowhere near pre-COVID level. There has been a lot of debates about re-opening schools for a long time now. Some schools immediately shutting down right after re-opening wasn't a big surprise and was generally anticipated.
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DSIt would make it clearer for me if everyone would use ECB for European Central Bank and EU for the European Economic Union. There seems to be a lot of double usage. Thanks. DLS
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MTEd, you nailed it on the head. With the data we have, we know that 98% of those who died from this virus are age 60 or older or have one, and most commonly two comorbidity factors. This means the virus isn't as dangerous to the overwhelming majority of the population. But why (in the US) do we have such a reaction to it? Because both the government and corporations are afraid of getting sued. If we want to re-open we have to indemnify.
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RAOne of the very best to date guys. Great intro by Nick and the concept of more AI in DM to the labor detriment of EM was a first for me. China got the Labor Arbitrage because they were in the right place at the right time. I’m getting a real antidotal sense that we are turning on a dime to domestic consumption preference. My hat is off to you Ed and Roger—one of the best DB to date!
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BBOn the way to bankruptcy as partial restarts begin, prices will be pushed as higher. Supply side will be reduced which will find customers who will pay higher prices. Would this not start the change in price inflation psychology?
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NJEven tech cos like IBM are cutting jobs today... Things are going the Raoul predicted.... https://www.wsj.com/articles/ibm-announces-first-job-cuts-under-new-chief-executive-11590113061?mod=djemalertNEWS
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DPVery interesting take on the EU and the UK. I'm questioning though to which extent having a lower currency means having your industry and exports back. You end up having more and more players like the internet infrastructure stocks and luxury having insane pricing power that define the economy more and more. They become so powerful to a point that they are an hybrid economical/political entity that will one day encounter a political response. How likely is it then for the EU to try to get their own IT infrastructure companies and stop bleeding all the value accruded from the network effect on the other side of the pond.
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CXUnfortunately you guys talk about manufacturing returning to the US as if it already happened but gave no supports. Which company made the announcements? What I heard from companies was that they went to other Asian countries as well as Europe and only ended up going back to China because those countries are just poorly developed, people are not ready either, yes including Europe, very old infrastructure.
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DBRoger has mentioned in several briefings that Amazon is a macro play. That it's the last stock investors will sell. This is worth mentioning often and is good signal to watch for market capitulation. Great job as always.
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TSAnother great job Ed and Roger!
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DRWhat a great discussion, led by a very nice approach by Ed, to hone in on one aspect. It reminds me of one of my favorite quotes, “From one thing, know ten thousand things.“ Ed is walking through the chaos, slicing into it with a samurai sword. Bravo!
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SLWith major countries in the world seemingly in a bind and having to weaken their currencies en mass; does the USD remain stronger for longer and continue to drag the world economies and especially EM down. At some point doesn't the US market crack despite the feds jawboning and unlimited backstops. What motivates Powell at this point, e.g., politics, institutional imperative, last gasps of the reserve currency, fear of the unknown old world order collapse. We seem to be living in the land of the absurd. Political and financial leaders are lost (even without Cov19). Emperor's with no clothes abound. But do enjoy the Daily briefings. Thanks!
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HRGreat job keeping the focus on one particular broad outcome and playing out the various follow on effects.
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RATerrific discussion, thanks. The complexities about what we’re facing are breathtaking. Nick, Ed and Roger are fearless investigators into this new world. I don’t think most of us human beings have a scintilla of understanding of how mind-warping and traumatic our future is going to be; that’s why I love the Daily Briefing. Keep it rocking! P.S.: I love the mental realignment to on-shoring and automation but the fruits of our labors will take many years and, meanwhile, what about the dispossessed new millions living in cardboard boxes?
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JvAgree with almost everything but if the inequality grows then most people need cheap products to consume (can not afford the expensive meat from the butcher around the block). How do you think people are going to consume if inequality grows? Do we need products from emerging markets just because they are cheap?
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mnCurious what happens with the S&P after the re-balancing June 19th