Daily Briefing – May 25, 2020

Published on
May 25th, 2020
Duration
39 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 25, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 25th, 2020 • Duration: 39 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the latest developments in macro and coronavirus. Bennington and Pal discuss the collapsing velocity of money and stagnant US growth, the Canadian and Australian housing markets, and what the future of commercial real estate may look like in a post-coronavirus world.

Comments

Transcript

  • PC
    Peter C.
    29 May 2020 @ 10:11
    I wachted the eur/dollar but it was painful if you are short. "Hopeium" activated by the ECB and a switch to cyclical stocks moves investors back to euro's. I wonder if this is just a short term move up and down again or if the market finds a new equilibrium for some time? In any case, a significant drop below 1.08 looks to be off the table for now.
  • TM
    Truls M.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:05
    Not sure if I follow the gold-bull argument if deflation. If the credit-destruction (via bankruptcy etc) is larger than the money-printing/ credit-creation, is it not possible / likely that usd will increase in value compared to gold, because of reduced currency supply (money + credit)?
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      27 May 2020 @ 00:00
      When bankruptcies rise, bank share prices and most corporate bonds get hit as investors look for safe haven places to prevent loss of capital. Check out the relationship between the gold price and the financial sector during severe downturns in the economy. Investors look to the asset which is no one's liability = Gold. The nominal USD price of gold may fall somewhat in a deflation scenario in my estimation (at least for a time) but gold should protect your purchasing power in a deflationary period pretty well, especially if banks are still considered a risky place to put your cash. I do raise my cash allocation for possible debt default deflation protection in times like these, but look at the chart of GOLD since year 2000 vs USD! Gold shines. This whole period is touted as a great 'dis-inflation' period with overall falling nominal rates and falling inflation expectations. When countries are in a race to the bottom with interest rates, they are all effectively trying to 'devalue' their currencies to lighten the load created by heavy debt during slow or no growth periods. I treat gold like a currency in those circumstances, moving some cash in gold to protect my international purchasing power. If inflation expectations are on the rise then commodity markets (esp base metals) will likely outperform gold so I hold some commodity exposure also. One way to track inflation expectations is to look at the chart of the RINF etf (Proshares inflation expectations etf), which you will see has been going one way (DOWN) for the last 10 years.
    • TM
      Truls M.
      27 May 2020 @ 07:26
      Thanks for the reply Bruce. You make some good arguments! It seems that USD may be a good short term bet, but gold is a much better (and safer) long term bet. Some USD in the portfolio along with gold seems reasonable at this time, to hedge possible short term spikes in deflation. What is the best way to get exposure to USD in your opinion? With rates close to zero, short/medium term TIPS seems like a good way to play it, with protection from runaway inflation. Agreed with regards to commodities. Thanks for the RINF tip! Further break down of global trade could make this even more interesting, but I guess could result in both inflation and deflation depending on the commodity and the locality.
  • OC
    Otto C.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:35
    I understand the logical argument that gold would rise because it's a safe haven. However, if you look at history, gold initially drops with the stock market but it rebounds prior to the stock market bottom. During the 2007 stock market crash, gold dropped until October 2008 or about 5 months prior to SPX bottom on March 9 2009. Many gold buyers are speculators so they would tend to sell gold to meet margin calls on equities or for the need of liquidity.
    • RD
      Riki D.
      26 May 2020 @ 22:38
      That event has already happended in the fast panic phase *Feb-Mar*. What potentially comes next is the slow grind of insolvency, which is typical bear market behaviour but not a panic. Capitulation (final panic) is the last phase and by that time, gold would have already run.
  • RS
    Ravi S.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:41
    Hi guys Awesome as ever I’m a property investor in Australia Just to give you on the ground metrics , Any decent residential property yields 2-3% rent only, then you pay management , insurance , other levies and possibly land tax Basically anything highly levered is under water from a cashflow position; I calculate around 1% returns (interest rates 3-4%) The Aussie narrative has been borrow interest only and get the tax deduction while you wait for capital appreciation or rent to catch up I’ve been life long believer in this till this year where I now think this great Australian story may unravel
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      26 May 2020 @ 06:53
      Hi Ravi, I live in Perth Western Australia where the commodity downturn hit our property market a full 5 years ago. Since then I've been witnessing multiple friends and colleagues having to sell investment properties at a loss due to: 1) falling rents and banks switching their interest only loans to interest+principal; and/or 2) loss of a job (the husband or wife) and not being able to handle the cash flow requirements of negatively geared properties; and/or 3) vacancy of the property due to more dwellings coming on stream while population growth slowed to lowest level in 20 years. To compound the above, Covid 19 is forcing some renters to move into cheaper accommodation (e.g house sharing). All this happened with home loan interest rates coming down but also with banks becoming more stringent in lending criteria due to the Govt Inquiry into lending practices. regards Bruce
    • PC
      Paul C.
      26 May 2020 @ 22:30
      Great to see coal-face observations and them being shared.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:39
    Hey Raoul, I'm getting reports large(s) homes, especially in SFO, San Jose, LA and some in Phoenix, actually selling pretty well. Those city dwellers, living, renting, owning of small apartment/condos in the city, are the workers displaced by the pandemic. They are after larger houses with extra bedrooms, offices and so forth. They need room to move, work and live in the same spot. Google, rumor has it, has ended large office gatherings until mid-2021. Not just Google too. What say you?
    • PG
      P G.
      26 May 2020 @ 21:59
      Same in areas in Jew Jersey
  • CT
    Cheuk T.
    26 May 2020 @ 14:19
    Raoul clearly hasn't fully understood Richard Werner's point. Richard's point is NOT about centrally planning credit allocation, Richard is against that actually. I would have expected Raoul to be more diligent. Watch a few more Youtube videos on Richard and you'll see what I mean.
    • MC
      Melvin C.
      26 May 2020 @ 17:46
      From what I recall of Princes of the Yen, the planned credit allocation is what made Japan come back so strongly after the war. This is probably what Raoul is referring to. It is the "forced lending" (also window guidance) which created a bubble, which Prof. Werner was against.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      26 May 2020 @ 21:28
      Werners point was the creation of credit only when it was for projects that were economically productive. E,g the new plant machinery and returns from that, re-paid the local bank loan. Clearly that is significantly different from a basic loan to speculate in non economically productive assets.
  • DW
    Desmond W.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:51
    Hey Raoul and team, here is a sad example of what is going to play out over the next 12 months. An incredible business in Melbourne, how does an SME business that has queues to get into go into liquidation - unfortunately business owners over the past 20 years have taken on too much debt that has been enabled by banks, landlords and creditors. Liquidity - Hope - Solvency. https://www.theage.com.au/business/small-business/famous-melbourne-cake-shop-for-sale-after-business-collapse-20200526-p54whc.html Hopetoun Tea Rooms had 37 employees before its closure and owes $38,000 in employee entitlements and $260,000 to gift-card holders and customers with paid reservations. Creditors are owed just over $3 million, with major creditors including the Block Arcade, law firm Tisher Liner, the Australian Tax Office and the Commonwealth Bank.
  • JO
    JOHN O.
    26 May 2020 @ 15:40
    Regarding the dollar investment - I am in the US and use USDU rather than UUP for the reason that Raoul suggests. It is less Euro-heavy and includes EM exposure including China and India. 10 currencies in all. Not sure what is available outside of the US.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      26 May 2020 @ 16:14
      USDU??? Oh dear! The underlying trades only a few thousands shares per day, and even though it has Options, the liquidity in the Options is to all intents and purposes ZERO. I personally believe the first, second and third rule of trading/investing it ONLY use highly liquid underlyings.
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      26 May 2020 @ 16:46
      Mike T - Admittedly I have only traded a couple of thousand shares at a time, but the underlying of the ETF are T-Bills and currency futures. It doesn't get much more liquid than that. While my Bloomberg doesn't give an Implied Liquidity (it doesn't give one for UUP either) you shouldn't have any trouble trading it. If you have a large order have your broker get you a blind risk bid. I have been in and out several times since Raoul has been bullish on the USD and have been able to split the spread with most trades. That said, you have to sleep at night and if UUP (10 x the volume so far today v USDU) is better for you, use it. I was just trying to alert folks that there is an ETF that includes some EM and isn't 57% Euro. Cheers.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      26 May 2020 @ 18:25
      John O. Have you considered Capital efficiency? After liquidity making the most of your money by using Capital efficient instruments is vitally important. If trading from a margin account you'll have to put up 50% of the value of the shares trades for Buying Power Reduction to trade USDU directly (same for any ETF or Stock). If you don't have the use of a Margin account then you'll have to put up 100% for BPR. Trading futures is much more capital efficient and interestingly your question is very timely. From next Monday June 1st, a new Futures Exchange goes live to the public https://www.thesmallexchange.com/ where one of listings will be a brand new Dollar Index product, symbol FX:SME, using a blend of currencies different from the USD Index Futures, as follows: Chinese Renminbi, Yen, Mexican Peso, Euro, GBP, CAD, AUD. Note FX:SME has a notional value of $15,800 with a BPR of either 1 % or 2% depending on what type of Brokerage account being used so much more capital efficient than USDU or any other ETF.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      26 May 2020 @ 18:32
      firms offering Small Exchange products from day 1 from here https://smallexchange.com/brokers Also don't quote me on this, but I believe E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, TD and others have signed up also.
    • JO
      JOHN O.
      26 May 2020 @ 20:28
      Mike T - All good points. Yes, I would rather use futures with IG or even Interactive Brokers. My day job is managing an RIA and our compliance program precludes me from using outside brokers and trading on margin, so I am not your typical untethered investor. My guess is that most RV subscribers are fairly competent investors so your thoughts are spot on. I can say however, that most retail investors (our extended clients) and even most financial advisors (our direct clients) do not belong in margin accounts or with a forex broker. I will check out the smallexchange.com however. It sounds interesting.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:52
    Amazon is getting to be a real pain in the ass. Several recent bad seller issues and NO Amazon phone contact available. A to Z Guarantee harder than hell to accomplish. All issues handled with CHAT and you better take screen shots or you can get screwed. I believe people will get sick of the online shopping negative experiences, incorrect product descriptions, used goods sold as new, 3-party sellers and their restocking fees, buyer paid return shipping, clothes not fitting and so forth. If I go into Dillards, there is thousands of pieces of clothing and I have to touch, check, try on and find just the right everything to buy it. Online isn't going to make that process better or easier. Same with food deliveries. Online has benefited for sure, but it's the whole picture or the answer. Hell, can't even go to the doctor----Fauci , FDA, CDC have become our doctors, authorized by Governors telling us yes or no.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    26 May 2020 @ 04:21
    Thanks Raoul for addressing gold during deflation. I understand (and agree) with your deflation thesis and gold/BTC performance in the long-term. But not sure I fully understand your view on gold/BTC's performance during the deflationary period. So, we are anticipating a global dollar short squeeze. Prices of commodities (also real estate) will continue to deflate, unemployment rises, income reduces, and bankruptcies rise. In this scenario, wouldn't the world, short on dollar, sell gold to get dollars to service debt? Wouldn't that put downward pressure on dollar? I get that Fed is likely to act (MMT, buy stocks). The question is, if we assume this Fed action will push gold up, wouldn't that effectively take us into the inflation scenario? I guess you are envisioning a scenario where these Fed actions, while they end up printing dollars, but doesn't manage to get dollars to where they are needed in the real economy (US and offshore)? But still, that means many financial assets (stock, real estate, silver) in US may inflate. But gold is the most reliable bet without much headwind among those assets? It seems to boil down to this: when there is a dollar short squeeze, if the world sells gold to get dollars, would Fed print faster than gold sold by RoW? Probably yes. Using 1930 deflation for assessing gold performance is tricky. Dollar was pegged to gold then, and it was devalued w.r.t gold. Not sure if it was the market that decided gold's price then. Ameet's comment below alludes to some of these questions.
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      26 May 2020 @ 05:02
      The 1930 deflation period was the time when the federal government confiscated gold from people in the US. After completing the confiscation, they revalued the price of gold higher and effectively devalued the dollar. They will not be able to do the same today.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      26 May 2020 @ 18:48
      Indeed. Most Americans that own Gold(physical at least) also own the means to defend it...
  • DS
    David S.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:27
    I am sure you will be happy to know that I agree with the deflation/dollar scenario. I also believe, however, that the Coronavirus damage will be with the world until the Summer of 2021. I am even more convinced after seeing the crowds with no masks and/or social distancing over this holiday weekend. This virus is very contagious. The US does not even have testing and tracking in place. Poor Brazil is suffering because the people in power agreed it is just the flu. I hope I am wrong about the second and third wave of the virus, but at this point it does not look good. For those who chose to close down poorly they will by necessity open poorly. DLS
    • MT
      Mark T.
      25 May 2020 @ 23:46
      Just because it is contagious doesn't make it dangerous. It is dangerous to old folks and unhealthy folks. 98% of deaths are from those 60% and older, 69% of deaths are from those 85 and older. For those of us who are analytical, I struggle with reconciling the worldwide response to this virus vs the actual damage the virus itself has caused.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 May 2020 @ 05:47
      Mark T. – The death rate in New York starts to pick up at age 50 and accelerates. In New York, the average age of critically ill patients was 62. Being critically ill is no walk in the park. I am just stating a reasonable outcome after watching the lack of concern about the virus over the weekend on our beaches and parks. We are not the only ones, as some Europeans are casting their fate to the wind also. It is better to go into a battle with this virus expecting the number of cases and deaths to rise. We are dealing with a virus not fake news. We will win this war, but we need to be honest about the enemy and the expected increases in illnesses and deaths. If we do not respect the virus, many will make unnecessarily poor choices. I am not worried about myself. I am healthy, no comorbidities and no prescriptions at 74. I care about all the needless suffering and/or deaths if people make light of this virus. Viruses do not listen to the left or the right. They just reproduce if they can find a body to invade. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 May 2020 @ 13:50
      David I dont disagree with your overall perspective. However, there are still plenty of doctors and reports out there about the disease sweeping through a country incurring a higher death rate of susceptible folks, BUT, because most do not have a serious or even moderate response, by incurring a sweeping infection, the herd immunity rate is built substantially faster. I think the jury is still out on the best approach to get this over with quickly. I am watching Sweden closely.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 May 2020 @ 18:31
      Will M. - I am agree we do not know how this will play out. Science is providing us with good news and bad news. We are all hoping for a vaccine and better procedures to mitigate the severity of COVID-19. Sweden did not lock down in the hopes of quickly developing herd immunity. Sweden's Public Health Agency released the initial findings of an ongoing antibodies study that showed 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed antibodies against COVID-19 by late April. I hope the number accelerates during May and June. Herd immunity proponents say the herd immunity needs to reach 60% to start being effective. I believe this means an R-0 factor of less than one. Even at an R-0 of less than one the virus is still spreading, albeit at a slower pace. It probably will take the vaccine to really stop this virus with herd immunity. That is why all Asian countries with more experience are not allowing gathering of large public crowds. In science there is no court of appeals to let you off the hook. If you contract the virus, the outcomes can be minor to major. Be safe. DLS
  • PB
    P B.
    26 May 2020 @ 18:26
    Will a surge in the USD result in the export of U.S. inflation to its trading partners, thereby accelerating their path to hyperinflation first before it finally comes home to roost in the U.S., or is it possible that the sheer dominance of the USD currency pool in world trade limits the risk of hyperinflation developing within the US itself? Will the probability of a burst in the Chinese credit hyper-bubble also increase as a result of a surge in the USD?
  • MH
    Mark H.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:22
    M2 is not the money supply in the modern financial system. There is no wholesale money in it or many other bank liabilities that act as money. Therefore velocity Calcs using it are next to useless. The Fed gave up trying to calculate M3 years ago because it was too hard to calc, eg Eurodollars, repo and all sorts of OTC derivatives. Richard Werner was alluding to monetary misunderstandings in the last 10 minutes of his interview when Hugh admitted to being out of his depth. Please have a money week and get Jeff Snider, Perry Mehrling, Steve Ken and Nathan Tankus on.
    • MH
      Mark H.
      26 May 2020 @ 01:31
      Sorry Steve Keen not Ken
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      26 May 2020 @ 06:57
      That’s a brilliant idea!
    • BS
      Benjamin S.
      26 May 2020 @ 16:52
      Steve Keen would be great
  • TM
    Tom M.
    26 May 2020 @ 08:23
    Thanks for discussing housing Raoul and specifically mentioning Australia. I am a Millenial in Australia so this is of particular interest to me. I would be very interested to hear more about what you see happening with commodity currencies like the NZD and AUD as we move forward and what the relative limits of central banks in these countries may be when it comes to dealing with a housing crash. There are still many bulls down here extrapolation the last 20 years to infinity, who seem to believe that the RBNZ and RBA will pull off some sort of printing-driven bounce run like the Fed has managed with stocks. This seems completely unrealistic to me and my assumption has always been that we would eventually get the GFC-style housing crash that we dodged last time. Am I right in thinking these central banks are much more constrained in their ability to prop up local asset bubbles than the Fed has been?
    • BS
      Benjamin S.
      26 May 2020 @ 16:46
      I'm also interested in these questions
  • CA
    Craig A.
    26 May 2020 @ 15:34
    Capitalism is officially dead.
  • JL
    James L.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:08
    Several writers that follow Elliott Wave Theory, Robert Prechter and Harry Dent both teach that gold declines during periods of Deflation. They recommend cash only.
    • CT
      Cherry T.
      26 May 2020 @ 03:42
      What's the significance of Elliot Wave Theory within the context of Gold's price movement with regards to inflation and deflation?
    • JL
      James L.
      26 May 2020 @ 15:16
      Raoul asked who believed gold would fall with deflation, thus my response which I do not believe is valid today. If at all only in the Liquidity Phase not in the Insolvency Phase.
  • ML
    Mary L.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:29
    Investors buy gold because (1) they view it as a store of value during times of inflation and/or (2) when they are rationally or irrationally fearful. Raoul's premise that gold would appreciate during a deflation because the Fed will print more money falls under (2), the fearful scenario. If during the fearful scenario, people run to Treasury bonds and drive the yield close to zero, it is possible that gold can be viewed as a zero yield bond. Therefore, if during a deflation, cash is king, then Treasury bonds and gold (as a zero yield bond) ought to be in demand. However, what is scary is that during times of fear, we could also see fire sale, where everything gets sold (including gold), and investors only want to hold cash. If IMF's SDRs become the solution for decreasing the reliance on the dollar, it would make sense to hold gold and bitcoin too.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 May 2020 @ 21:32
      the times of fear you describe is the liquidation event, not the solvency event. We have had the liquidation event.
    • nr
      nicholas r.
      25 May 2020 @ 23:59
      We had that fire sale event already!
    • JS
      Joseph S.
      26 May 2020 @ 01:09
      Joey S. I’ve watched/listened/read many podcasts/books over the past few years. Particularly when I became more interested in gold in September 2018. Many media sources showed a high correlation between real interest rates & gold. I think it was Jim Grant who said this correlation was as high as 90%. Assuming interest rates are zero and deflation ends up to be say -3%, then real interest rate is 3%. Currently, the real interest rate is about zero or a bit above. This all suggests that real interest rates are about to gradually go up as deflation sets in more deeply and hence the price of gold go down. However, does this old style analysis fail once interest rates fall to zero and we have a zero coupon bond? No sense in holding a zero coupon bond when you can protect your wealth with gold. What happens to the stock prices of gold miners?Looks like stock price of Homestead Gold in the 1930s is the best analogy that I can find. I’ve rebalanced my gold miners to first & second tier with lots of liquidity if needed. We may still be in trouble as Mr. Market may give the gold miners a higher PE ratio than the “new overall market” but much lower than today. Thoughts?
    • RM
      Richard M.
      26 May 2020 @ 14:30
      Raoul, that's true that the "liquidation" phase has passed, BUT when you become insolvent you also have to liquidate all "remaining" assets to try and settle up before you slink off to oblivion! Just sayin'.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    26 May 2020 @ 14:11
    SDR (Special Drawing Rights) or in Keynes terms the Bancor. Regardless more and more of us are done with politicians being able to print power (money -> power).
  • CT
    Cherry T.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:44
    Raoul, Mike Maloney has done a chart analysis of Gold vs. Second leg down during multiple recessions recently, Homestake in the 30's included. Here's the link for a great read. https://goldsilver.com/blog/how-would-gold-perform-in-a-second-stock-market-crash/?utm_campaign=20200522_Gold_Second_Stock_Market_Crash__Jeff_Newsletter&utm_content=touchpoint_1_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zaius
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 May 2020 @ 13:55
      I have enjoyed Mike Maloney's latest almost daily efforts. He raises many good points.
  • AS
    Ameet S.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:43
    Dollar debt can only be repaid with dollars, not gold or bitcoin. The supply of gold does not completely alleviate the contraction of dollars in circulation. Gold may be sold by many to raise dollars to service debt. A dollar squeeze cannot necessarily mean a gold squeeze or a bit coin squeeze. An environment of dollar shortage may cause bids for gold to reduce, because gold supply will stay constant. Also, in a deflationary environment, if gold moves higher, the beneficiaries will be gold producers. I don't think the fed wants to share monetary policy and power with gold producers. I don't think the gold producers necessarily will do well during a dollar squeeze. I am cautious about my long dollar position. I have kept it small to better manage it. But it could first have a dip before shooting higher. The real question will be how many holders of gold will need to sell to raise dollars. And how well gold holds its value as institutions sell gold to repay debts during the squeeze phase. At some point gold may bottom and that may be the multidecade opportunity to pounce on, if it does stall. Also if you remember in 2008, gold hit a peak and then lost value even as dollar shot higher. Gold did not do well in the next few years. We may see a repeat again.
    • LG
      Lance G.
      26 May 2020 @ 01:53
      Didn't gold high all time highs in 2011?
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      26 May 2020 @ 02:37
      Gold did go higher in 2011, only after the dollar peaked. When gold was peaking, dollar was retreating.
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      26 May 2020 @ 02:43
      Gold had a peak at $1033 in 2008. Then fell to 681 as dollar shot higher. Only after the dollar had peaked (in March 2009) did gold begin to rise again. It went to $1923 in 2011. When gold peaked, the DXY was around 72.
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 May 2020 @ 13:42
      I understand your points Ameet. It is my feeling that what has just taken place is an inflection point for gold and silver. I think the public especially the older members will begin to lose confidence in the Fed and Government in general. In the West many will soon understand that their pensions are at risk, or doomed. Therefore placing a portion of their savings / investments / pensions into gold may be their last hope of not losing most of what they have earned. Consequently, allowing for a dip to 1450..ish, gold is going to $5000 plus an ounce. However I do not disagree that governments may try to confiscate gold , nationalize mines, drive the paper price lower, place huge taxes on gold profits. Those are my worries, not a substantially falling real price of gold.
  • JI
    Jose I.
    26 May 2020 @ 13:34
    Great discussion! Thanks. If anyone could help and comment on 3 doubts / questions I have: 1. Could the emerging US-CN cold war, with decoupling 2 economic blocks, 2 internets…, gradually lead to a reduced share of the USD in the world trade without the need to force a change from the USD towards a basket of currencies Raoul says (the CN block could trade in CNY)? 2. About the huge need of USD because of the USD denominated debt outside the US. Would the level of short term maturity of that debt be more relevant than the total debt outstanding? Could it not be renewed with USD denominated debt and thus reduce the need for USD? 3. Raoul said: “in 6 months we have interest rates at 0 and deflation”. I agree. But Is that a real inflection point? Why would that mean the end of the current game of the Fed buying more and more debt (or even stocks)? Could that not continue for quite some time?
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    26 May 2020 @ 12:36
    Great! I want to add my vote. Raoul in a conversation with Richard Werner!! Can't wait!!
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    26 May 2020 @ 12:13
    The China story is not yet complete, but it feels more like the gold rush boom of the 49s, boom and then bust. Chinese cell phone sales went in decline sometime in 2018 and for a country on hyper growth ...err creating current consumption from the future there will be a reckoning. Chinese don’t have great income distribution, they have a manipulated currency that no one wants, profited from bribing US officials and global bureaucrats along with stealing US hi tech secrets from National universities. They also have neighbors with better cost structure like Vietnam and India. They also won’t have the billions poured from the like of Charlie Munger, Ray Dalio and the like who poured into the hyper growth of China to make a buck but will turn on a dime when the rate of return is suboptimal and not sustainable. The fact the are making Hong Kong a war zone when it fed them global capital speaks volumes. By comparison, Americans don’t like to save, have no real incentive to save in a zero interest world and have always lead not only the US economy but the global economy with consumption. Millennials from India, US and Mexico will be the most important export consumer market for any global exporter. I see the real opportunity in the future to whoever can create the bank of Bitcoin possibly with the massive estates of Gates and Buffet. A banking system that provides to Main Street with a non manipulated currency undermining the world’s central banks and giving it to the group that creates the most jobs, the most social justice, and best dollar (or currency) multiplier in both US and EM markets.
  • AH
    Allan H.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:13
    And btw Raoul, in the UK they have changed the taxation for buy to let..one can no longer deduct mortgage interest from rent. This happened in stages and I believe as of April 2020 there is no longer any interest that can be deducted. This really cuts the yield return of UK property and everyone has the same trade on.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 May 2020 @ 23:56
      Interesting...its really concerning.
    • GD
      Graham D.
      26 May 2020 @ 07:41
      There's still 20% relief available for BTL interest but your point is bang on. It is very possible now in the UK for a BTL landlord to be paying tax on a portfolio that is losing money.
    • AH
      Allan H.
      26 May 2020 @ 11:18
      Aha, thx Graham.
  • ca
    carlo a.
    26 May 2020 @ 11:17
    Super Raul! much love
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    26 May 2020 @ 09:14
    Raoul can we have Mike Green have a conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb?
    • TM
      Tom M.
      26 May 2020 @ 09:45
      That would be amazing
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    26 May 2020 @ 09:24
    Thanks a lot for addressing the gold-in-a-deflationary-environment question Raul!
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      26 May 2020 @ 09:24
      Raoul
  • lm
    luke m.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:27
    We NEED Richard Werner back, please just give him 5 minutes UNINTERRUPTED on how he thinks the endgame is coming regarding central bank digital currencies. This is literally the most important question right now and has ramifications on the entire investing world in every asset class. Every time he began to elaborate he got squished and labelled a conspiracy theorist....
    • IP
      IDA P.
      26 May 2020 @ 09:14
      thank you, totally agree
  • RK
    Roger K.
    26 May 2020 @ 09:00
    Raoul mentioned that Chinese system did not work even though they have copied the Japanese Banking model. I respectfully disagree as we know , Chinese has brought back 800M it's people from object poverty with in 10-15 years. If not for that model China would have been still in deep poverty. And another thing is the human element, If This Richard Werner Banking model is to service any high IQ/ high literate society ( people who invent and create not just copy ). Results would have been marvelous even in case of the Chinese experiment.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    26 May 2020 @ 07:09
    I’m not entirely clear... is Raoul’s case for the time being stagflation due to deflationary forces and loads of monetary intervention, or pure deflation despite intervention, thanks to the relative quantity of USDs in the system compared to every other currency? And does this mean possibly, that the US could be in a purely deflationary state, whilst the rest of the world is in varying degrees of stagflation? Sorry if I’ve not been listening closely enough.
    • SD
      Shawn D.
      26 May 2020 @ 08:52
      To keep it very simple: Deflation first. Stagflation later. Naturally, this is subject to government behavior/changing the rules if the game, e.g. massive MMT.
  • MD
    Mark D.
    26 May 2020 @ 08:30
    @Raoul what if the Australian government introduce a $40,000 First Home Buyer grant like they did on 2008 ($32,000) which I believe lead our price growth, which then lead to o/s interest by Chinese through this period. Do you still think prices fall when people are so heavily encouraged to continue to own their piece of ‘The Australia Dream’ with free money effectively
  • RH
    Roger H.
    26 May 2020 @ 06:49
    It would be great if RV could interview someone properly explaining the difference between "printing money" and creating reserves as Lacy Hunt pointed out that the FED chairman got wrong in an interview. Also, how the different ways the central banks creates money will influence price inflation and asset market inflation differently. MMT would also be a natural topic. To me, it feels like there's a lot of semantics involved and that it is all about printing money. The real difference seems to be about how deceiving it is in the current economic situation, i.e. how strong the false premise is about being paid back in the future. In order of deception: creating bank reserves, open market operations and MMT. I'm pretty sure that all versions facilitates higher government lending and spending. Just look at the FED total asset curve and what happened when they tried to unwind in 2019 (before Corona). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPANWW
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      26 May 2020 @ 07:06
      Roger, Refer to https://www.lynalden.com/quantitative-easing-mmt-inflation/ Lyn Alden agrees with you that the FED/Treasury are facilitating higher govt lending and spending and that it is 'disguised' in the current structures and modes of operation. Lyn's article is quite long but is an easy read because she builds the case in a step by step fashion and the result is a highly readable primer on US Treasury deficits, FED QE, and MMT. regards Bruce
  • AS
    Ash S.
    26 May 2020 @ 07:06
    Looking for the keys under the light post... Haha Yes seeing Hugh (and Raoul) relaxed and being themselves is totally refreshing. Real conversation we get to drop in on!
  • AS
    Anthony S.
    26 May 2020 @ 05:23
    These are awesome. Would be great to have these briefings continue even after the rona plays out.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      26 May 2020 @ 06:49
      I hope they do too!
  • AV
    Andrei V.
    25 May 2020 @ 19:19
    Raoul, why do you insist that central banks adopting some kind of global currency is a good thing for bitcoin? Why would you ever hold bitcoin if you find out that the world is about to create WorldCoin? I really don't see them using bitcoin because the whole blockchain mechanism behind it is so inefficient. If the world ran on bitcoin there would be massive pollution just because of the costs of mining. WorldCoin doesn't even have to be built on blockchain and what government would even want that considering the 50% attack?
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      25 May 2020 @ 19:28
      For instance: if the global currency (WorldCoin) is on a blockchain and is also 2% inflated (as regular fiat currently) it takes a small move to park WorldCoin into bitcoin on the same crypto wallet and then move it back into WorldCoin when buying goods/services.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 May 2020 @ 21:33
      Exactly Pieter. It makes the use of bitcoin seamless...
    • TB
      Timothy B.
      25 May 2020 @ 23:41
      Pollution from bitcoin mining is relatively low. Since electricity constitutes almost all of a mine's overhead miners are more incentivized than pretty much any other industry to locate their mines near very low pollution hydro plants.
    • nr
      nicholas r.
      25 May 2020 @ 23:57
      Converting to a more digital world (WorldCoin) would make it easier to access bitcoin and give it credibility. Bitcoin is digital gold, that is unconfiscatable. (Executive Order 6102 can't happen to bitcoin) And bitcoin solves the Triffin Dilemma, and the Cantillon Effect.
    • nr
      nicholas r.
      26 May 2020 @ 00:08
      I sound like i'm trying to sell my bags haha the reality is I want to buy more to make my virtual bag heavier!
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      26 May 2020 @ 06:39
      To add to that, Bitcoin is trustless and the most secure asset internally. It is something no governmental currency can surpass. A government issued digital currency has no fundamental difference to currency currencies. They just have more control on the supply and use, which leads to even more distrust. Like if China holds e-dollars, the U.S. government can freeze China's held dollars at any time. With bitcoin you can always trust to have entire control of your assets and their scarcity.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 May 2020 @ 06:39
    I had a little different take on Professor Werner's prescription. It is not top down but bottom up. The thousands of smaller banks know and understand their client's businesses. They are not loaning for financial engineering, but for GDP productive projects of small and medium-size enterprises - SME. The small banks can calculate if they will get a return on their loan and the return of the principle. This is something that cannot be done by top down bureaucratic systems. It is similar to the difference between a value investor and an ETF investor. DLS
  • JM
    John M.
    26 May 2020 @ 06:35
    If Canada's property market finally cracks (after a >20 year boom) that should hit the banking sector. Raoul mentioned the mining sector but the energy sector in Canada is also in trouble Finally there could be a slowdown in immigration (which has been a big driver of housing demand in Canada) Could be a perfect storm.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    26 May 2020 @ 05:18
    Time for a haircut Ash. It’s getting long.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      26 May 2020 @ 05:24
      Ha. Yep.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:47
    Probably going to get some flak for this (full disclosure, I'm currently short junior gold miners, which is definitely taking some testicular fortitude) I'd ask you to plot the current account balance of India, inverted, against gold. The correlation since 2004, up till recently is pretty stunning. India's capital account should be going through the floor right about now, as their current account is narrowing. Their economy is getting absolutely slammed. This just seems like it's going to force dispersement of gold, which individuals largely hold their savings in (also true for other EM, I believe). Short term, this is not a inflation vs deflation argument, but a balance sheet issue. I think once the market sniffs this out, gold will correct in a painful way. Of course I'd be totally wrong if DM demand overcomes this, but DM is a marginal purchaser of gold and loves their growth STAHKS :)
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      25 May 2020 @ 19:23
      Respect that you short goldminers! I am long gold miners haha! We will find out who is right the coming years....
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      25 May 2020 @ 19:25
      Yea it's pretty painful because I'm long-term bullish. Just a short term call :)
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      25 May 2020 @ 19:35
      Ok. You might be very right as the (early) summer usually is not kind for the gold price! Yet timing these moves is hard and with the risk of gold miners takeovers you might wanna be careful to short gold miners with leverage! I guess shorting is good for my position: when lots of people short and then have to cover we would get a nice jump in the price.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      25 May 2020 @ 19:49
      See you in the machine!
    • KB
      Keith B.
      25 May 2020 @ 20:08
      I hope you are right, so I can buy more gold on the cheap.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      25 May 2020 @ 23:53
      I wouldn't be surprised to see $1450 or even $1250. EMs are just getting slammed. And I don't see how DM will pick up the slack, they're too focused on their tech stocks. Central banks are fixated on a dollar shortage. Just seems like a cocktail that sets up for a correction, not to mention the technicals and how overbought gold is. If I'm wrong though, wouldn't be the first time
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      26 May 2020 @ 00:20
      Fellow Hedgeye Jedi?
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      26 May 2020 @ 00:27
      I have a subscription but can't take the fire hose of information they supply. Too all over the place for me. Haven't followed for a couple months. I do crack up Everytime he says STAHKS though 😂
    • SP
      Seahyung P.
      26 May 2020 @ 04:03
      It's my favourite part whenever I hear him say that too hahaha
  • RC
    Rob C.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:57
    The "Fred." Lol. I like that. It makes me think of the ridiculous cartoon of my youth. It's a fitting parody really.
  • TR
    Tim R.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:47
    I dunno how accurate this graph is for deflation/CPI, but kinda cool https://ibb.co/tsWmpjL
  • CC
    Cornelius C.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:39
    The smaller bank loaning out to small businesses model couldnt work in China because they were all incentivised to lie and produce better numbers than their competitors leading to speculative mania. It could work where people dont have to report strict standards to a central authority, or risk death if they fail (like in Japan)
  • AG
    Alan G.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:23
    I understand completely your deflation and gold relationship, Your history is true, The one issue is that if money velocity is stuck at such relativity low levels then no matter is printed does it matter? It seems to me the trade is placed on more fiscal stimulus and helicopter money not Fed balance sheet.
  • GL
    Gustavo L.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:13
    I don’t see bitcoin making any meaningful gains until and unless INFLATION kicks in... if it takes 5 yrs, then BTC will be idle until then. Inflation 1:1 in fact might b the only gains it makes
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    26 May 2020 @ 03:12
    Australian property will face its biggest test this Spring (Sep-Nov). The extra $550 fortnightly unemployment benefit ends sometime in September, at the same time the six month mortgage freeze most banks have offered comes to an end. Spring is also the most popular time to sell, so available stock tends to rise dramatically. Apartments will be the most interesting to watch as approximately 3% of all Australian property is investment property dedicated to airbnb. Many of these have attempted to transfer to long term rentals which is having the obvious effect of reducing rents. With approximately 25% of all apartments sold to foreign buyers, the current lockout makes it more difficult for these sales to occur. The glut of apartments has also continued to grow over the virus lockdown period as building sites remained open. Increased supply, decreased demand, and decreasing yields. Having said that, most international experts have been wrong for the past 10 years in calling for a crash as they do not understand the Australian psyche. The fear of not getting on the property train is real and Aussie John Symonds tagline "rent money is dead money" at the forefront of minds. Having had rates at relatively high levels for a developed nation (and hence the ability to cut and lend more) has obviously helped also. My view is that Australia will actually reduce the foreign taxes or stamp duty required in order to lure back the foreign buyers, as local demand will not be enough to keep prices at their current level.
  • CG
    Christine G.
    26 May 2020 @ 02:26
    Jim Rickards has been saying the dollar has to be replaced by a basket of currencies and gold for years. He sees the mechanism as the SDRs.
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    26 May 2020 @ 02:26
    Thank you for sharing your perspective on the land as an asset. The future of commercial real estate may look at bit cloudy right now however the future of residential real estate looks to be bright. Even right now WSJ reports high value transactions happening and given it is a source of huge number of jobs across the world, I am betting on it for the economic recovery. The low interest rates may help provided economic activity resumes. Dear Ash, do share updates reg. the activation of the slack channel recommended earlier. Thank you.
  • SC
    Seth C.
    26 May 2020 @ 02:22
    I agree the Hugh Hendry and Werner interview was fascinating. Werner brought the research and expertise while Hugh played with the thoughts. I hope there are more like that. I think Hugh will get better and better over time.
  • MW
    Mark W.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:51
    Risk of deflation (has happened), now moving to real deflation (happening now), with monetary and fiscal overreaction (begun to really take hold), then ultimately inflation to hyperinflation over the next few years as people will realise their lack of purchasing power and will ultimately loose trust in fiat. In all of those stages, gold will retain purchasing power, as various investor types will begin to loose faith in fiat before the next lot of investors and mainstreet does. Gold is fundamentally undervalued. If you think otherwise, you have failed your monetary history study. Silver is even more undervalued and will return as being incredibly precious, as it's both monetary and industrial. I don't buy the Bitcoin story although I do think it will rise again before it sinks as the younger generation will try and park what little currency they have, somewhere. However, once governments go onto a digital currency of their own, Bitcoin will be used in the shadier transactions. Don't misunderstand me, I believe in de-centralised money...real money, (hence Gold and Silver) but Bitcoin has too many technical issues itself and its difficult to use in a world with many competing digital assets that are more efficient. Casino money, sure...a large part of a portfolio, that has too much tail risk for me, given that something like Silver has good upside at low risk. I think property will decline 10% in nominal terms but will stay flat over the next few years and therefore won't keep up purchasing power. I like property from a essential aspect, but as an investment now, no. The masses have done well in property for ages, it's now time to pay the piper. Property prices will deflate.
  • BG
    Brian G.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:34
    Best adult television on the planet!
  • NP
    Nathan P.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:32
    Raoul, More about deflation and gold! I have been thinking about this topic for weeks since March and potentially how big of a trade it could be if the Dollar screams higher right along with gold prices.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    26 May 2020 @ 01:26
    In this market, I would not be surprised Hertz hits a 52 week high tomorrow! lol
  • LW
    Lorenz W.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:58
    @Ash - Can Rv please try to do an interview with an unbiased and objective expert on Chinese real estate? One idea might be Yukon Huang -Senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program..
  • DL
    David L.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:58
    Concerning the failure of China's directed loan program, weren't a significant amount of the loans for things like ghost cities with no inhabitants? According to Werner's view, these would not have a return on investment and therefore not contribute to GDP. Is this a fair characterization of Chinese lending?
  • GS
    Gary S.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:12
    I dont agree with Raoul the aussie property is in a bull market. Aussie property has done very little in 20 years. If you take the median house price in Oz from 2000 it has just kept up with gold Im not talking about property on Sydney harbor. Im talking the average aussie home in the burbs. In fact for the past 2 years prices have fallen already and add the aud dropping 30% since 2013 and hardly a hot market.
    • RS
      Ravi S.
      26 May 2020 @ 00:50
      I think sydney and Melbourne have been booming in this time, but not sure currency relevant as the boom has been domestically owned. Decent property (not apartments) were not bought by overseas buyers, I think....
  • SP
    Steve P.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:44
    Pivot interviews into short movies. Reenact scenes from boiler room , BigShort etc but with real information and analysis, not staged acting. THAT would be an incredible game changer. Seen "Forex Trading Simulator" in Steam Games? It's a gamified trading sim. Would love to see the stress and theatrics of a real trade and analysis , only to pan into the interview. With your crews filming experience and amazing locations, imagine the quality of work!
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:35
    Thanks Ash and Raoul for giving us some info on this holiday! Cheers
  • HK
    Himali K.
    26 May 2020 @ 00:16
    Thanks, great interview- we had Christmas in May.
  • JL
    JP L.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:51
    USD/CNY is the one to watch this week IMO. Euro probably going higher this week.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 May 2020 @ 23:56
      Good point on CNY
  • MT
    Mark T.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:43
    What about us Gen Xers!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 May 2020 @ 23:56
      We are on our own, as ever...
  • AP
    Ash P.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:04
    The point with deflation is that 'things' decline in value against cash because it's scarce (at least that cash which is actively in circulation). If the question is how should 'thing's fair against gold? Well gold is the ultimate cash - scarcest of all (until bitcoin) so it will appreciate. Scarcity is as always the key to understanding price.
  • jk
    johan k.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:02
    I checked out the homestake mining chart from 1930s. So interesting to see its share price movement in relation to policy during that period. Difficult to be a gold bear at this stage
  • GS
    Gary S.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:58
    I have to agree with you, I dont feel or sense what you are saying wrt debt deflation, which is fucking confusing because its like feeling no gravity when falling until you hit the pavement
  • MT
    Mark T.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:56
    My income property model is university towns. However, I'm re-thinking this as universities (I'm in Pac-12 country) question re-opening their campuses in the Fall and students are very reluctant to sign leases. Or, they ask me what the lease break fee is......
  • KB
    Keith B.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:19
    More Richard Werner please! But can Raoul to interview him next time? HH did a great job, but the next interview needs to be in a different manner / style for contrast
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 May 2020 @ 20:40
      Agree, Mike Green would be good.
    • RB
      Roger B.
      25 May 2020 @ 22:51
      A Richard Werner/Lacy Hunt/Jeff Snider combo moderated by Raoul would be a real treat. Part 1: How Central Banks really work Part 2. Present day G7 CB actions and consequences
  • JI
    Janne I.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:00
    could we see another liqidation event?
    • JS
      Jon S.
      25 May 2020 @ 22:46
      "Not in our lifetimes", Janet Yellen. smh
  • AP
    Ash P.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:29
    I think the distinction Werner draws is between Japan and China's model of centralized diktat in which the big CBs wield power over thousands of local banks firmly within their grasp - "Though shalt lend and to these industries and in these amounts", versus a network of completely autonomous regional and local banks; the latter would be incentivized not by arbitrary quota but by yield generation; because they are small and regional they won't be turned off lending to precisely the small local businesses; moreover imbued with knowledge of local industries, firms and even personalities, they would be well-placed to find those opportunities. By the way, Japan's early (post-war diktat model worked - possibly - because of the need to rebuild capital infrastructure during those decades). A far more complex post-industrial economy requires a more decentralized approach for allocating capital; it's not as simple as lending to railways, wholesalers, utilities. etc.
    • AP
      Ash P.
      25 May 2020 @ 22:45
      ugh..."precisely the small local businesses that generate growth"; because....
  • BT
    Billy T.
    25 May 2020 @ 22:02
    Thank you so so much for explaining this!
  • Jv
    Jasper v.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:53
    crypto lending will do the banks work and the good thing about this is that there is no credit. Think about it, everybody can invest in a good idea everywhere.
  • MB
    Mitchell B.
    25 May 2020 @ 21:21
    Power to the Princes hands down your best video.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:50
    Read "The future is faster than you think" it gives an insight into how traditional retail will change using new technology. It's difficult to put a time frame on when it occurs but the traditional brick and mortar retail that we grew up with isn't going to survive.
  • AN
    Anthony N.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:49
    China's GDP targets may have conttibuted to local bank lending misallocation. Without targets as an input, Werner's idea/s may work.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:18
    If we expect stocks to fall from here we can expect gold miners to fall as well. Those are stocks as well at the end of the day. Comment it, I am interested about your opinion! Thanks.
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 May 2020 @ 20:44
      Yes Tibor I expect gold stocks to fall, but if gold holds up in price those stocks (I assume producing stocks here) are going to see substantially increasing profits on the gold price even if gold falls back to 1500. These profits will boost dividends in a world where dividends will collapse. So gold stocks may fall, but I am assuming not by a huge amount, and will pick up sharply as they did in end March. Now I am looking into hedging, but options are expensive unless way out of the money.
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 May 2020 @ 20:48
      Finally Tibor, regarding the gold price as Raoul just mentioned this Briefing, the FED is going to print print print..... So the gold price is going to soar. I am at ~10% gold physical today and plan to hold for the long term. Also happy to hear (encourage a debate) from anyone who believes gold stocks will drop substantially and stay down with most other stocks.
  • CJ
    Chris J.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:15
    Regarding the question about Bitcoin, can someone elaborate on the response? - “The Central Banks have a clear plan...I’d like to speak to some people about that.” What plan and what is the implication to Bitcoin or other crypto currencies? I think this topic requires a devoted hour or two discussion. What are Central Banks working on for digital currencies? I am aware of China working on this, but what about the Central Banks of other countries? Thanks.
  • jk
    jeffry k.
    25 May 2020 @ 20:12
    i thought werner's point was to have no bank lending for asset purchases, only for things that might enhance productivity.
  • jR
    james R.
    25 May 2020 @ 19:51
    Just a subtle hat-tip to our fallen brethren in battles gone by to provide our way of life in UK and USA on this Memorial Day.
  • KV
    Konstantinos V.
    25 May 2020 @ 19:33
    If monetary aggregate increases significantly coupled with reduced money velocity, deflation makes sense to me. But if say we enter this long and dreadful insolvency period, would the value of a countries currency not be reduced significantly, which in turn means a decrease purchasing power and higher-priced goods and services as a result? Thanks!
  • DI
    Dimitri I.
    25 May 2020 @ 19:16
    Please, please, please invite Richard Werner again :) One of my learnings from Richard Werner is also: Why should a country's new debt depend on rating agencies and international capital market (dominated by USD)? Why don't rethink this model and install a (democratic authorized) control instance inside the country itself?
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:38
    A great discussion! I like the point Raoul made about getting together two people on RV who are both deeply knowledgeable about a topic and letting them run. No time slots to fit into, although mostly it seems that they try to keep it to an hour or so. That is still enough time to explore ideas and let them develop. I don't subscribe to RV for trade ideas (although I have picked up several), but rather to expand my perspective. I will never be an expert in any of these areas, but my understanding is growing and I'm getting more of those "AHA!" moments. Well worth my investment, with regard to both money and time.
  • DI
    Dimitri I.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:32
    Isn't the velocity of money decreases, because the more and more money is created or asset price inflation transactions and not for gdp growth transactions?