Daily Briefing – May 29, 2020

Published on
May 29th, 2020
Duration
36 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 29, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: May 29th, 2020 • Duration: 36 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump's call to revoke Hong Kong's special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada.

Comments

Transcript

  • RC
    Randolph C.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:18
    I read Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning and would be interested to hear his very long term perspective on what's happening in markets in 2020. Much of the content is very daily/weekly, would be a nice complement.
    • HF
      Hector F.
      30 May 2020 @ 09:41
      100% agree. COVID-19 has been an accelerant to the socio-economic transition raging between the "silent generation, boomers, Xers, and millennials" within the United States. The battle and its result will affect the entire world.
    • WM
      Wolfgang M.
      1 June 2020 @ 10:35
      Grant Williams has done a podcast with Neil Howe last week which might answer exactly that
  • AC
    Ay C.
    1 June 2020 @ 10:28
    Hi RV team, would it be possible to schedule a session on EM credit and equities markets? During this crisis, EM credit spreads widened significantly given the indiscriminate selling waves (ETF?) amplified by illiquidity/bidless markets. We saw cash bond prices, especially in the long-end sink until reaching questionable valuations which in my mind, created attractive entry points in some MENA/Latam names. It would be great to have your views on the subject. Thanks 🙏
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    1 June 2020 @ 02:50
    Yeah I love the idea of bringing in people with more expertise in politics / history to gain a better understanding of the interplay between the geopolitical climate and financial markets. Especially if you find people that also have some understanding of financial markets. I didn't realise that you had Niel Howe as a guest. I will have to go back and watch that video but it could be good to hear an update on his thoughts about what is happening right now
  • LJ
    Lisa J.
    1 June 2020 @ 02:11
    Demographics completely different this time around compared to 1968.
  • MM
    Mark M.
    1 June 2020 @ 01:12
    Thanks again, another great discussion. I would love to see some interviews on Chinese expansion into Asia from the perspective of Japanese, Singaporean and Taiwanese economists/academics (ie those who understand the pros and cons of this from a geopolitical perspective).
  • DB
    Donna B.
    31 May 2020 @ 16:39
    You're doing a great job. Please don't shorten the RVDB as someone suggested. You can't please everyone. Suggestions for interviews: Mark Spitznegal and Nassim Taleb.
    • mB
      marc B.
      31 May 2020 @ 22:59
      If anything make it longer!
  • mB
    marc B.
    31 May 2020 @ 22:59
    A question I have for the next briefing. With stock buy backs on pause. Can the retail, dumb money, bridge the gap? I don’t have access to volume or figures. Would be interesting how much purchasing power retailers have & how much money from international markets is coming into us exchanges.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    31 May 2020 @ 18:22
    It would be great if RV could start to think about the broad question of what does a bipolar world trade block look like with countries aligning with the west or China and its sattelites? Are there countries that will act as intermediaries? What are the longer term implications of a world with less U.S. led global security? Capital controls from west to east and vice versa? How will this impact commodity flows and prices? Essentially a world with two broad standards frameworks. Thanks
  • CL
    Charles L.
    31 May 2020 @ 14:38
    In line with Ash's comments about a historian's point of view, would be great to bring Russel Nappier to the show again :)
  • Am
    Alex m.
    31 May 2020 @ 12:32
    Hey Guys great stuff as usual! I would love to hear Ed or Roger discuss how they use their frameworks to decide what side of a trade / investment to be on. What is the process they use to filter out all the noise? I fined well made 360 degree views on every macro topic (not just from RV) and most often step back and feel none the wiser...
  • JI
    Jose I.
    30 May 2020 @ 13:29
    Constructive feedback on the RVDB: I find it good, but I think you guys need to rethink its format to take to a better level. It seems to me it is a bit repetitive and superficial (same guys talking about same topics several times a week). Some thoughts: Maybe make 20’ max. A quick coverage of what you saw interesting in the markets, other observations that drew your attention that day and a deeper dive in a couple of issues. Have topics more prepared, e.g., the three take-aways or insights you want to share on a topic (instead of a conversation that sounds like a chat over coffee sometimes disperse, sometimes better).
    • CD
      Carl D.
      30 May 2020 @ 22:49
      I'd kinda agree, these can sometimes feel a little long like you're running out of stuff to talk about.
    • IH
      Ian H.
      31 May 2020 @ 11:26
      I tend to watch this on 1.5x speed and listen to how the nuance changes
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    31 May 2020 @ 06:25
    Lol alot of things "not in the wheelhouse" for these "market guys"
  • SP
    Steve P.
    31 May 2020 @ 04:27
    thats not a metaphor thats a poem
  • DS
    David S.
    30 May 2020 @ 01:57
    After the summer of 2021 - when I hope everyone will have herd immunity with the vaccine or having been infected- hopefully again symptoms; the world economies will have a terrible time generating any growth. The US consumer is the normal GDP generator - too much debt. China's infrastructure development was another one-time generator .China will focus its future debt on building its own economy. If the US can still print enough money, we can have an infrastructure boom. Several other countries could do this, but will they be able. It is more likely that the Fed will finally have to deal with deflation. Therefore, I would like to see some intelligent conversations on how to invest in a deflation worldwide. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 00:35
      Sorry. ...infected- hopefully without symptoms;
  • AG
    Alexandre G.
    31 May 2020 @ 00:08
    Hi guys, with regard to the comment made by having geopolitical or historical experts providing their views on impact on economy or financial markets... Consider experts with boots on the ground with close links to Brussels and Switzerland! Keep up the good work guys !
  • MT
    Mark T.
    30 May 2020 @ 23:28
    Interesting, these days it seems it's the FED that is picking the winners and losers.
  • JS
    John S.
    30 May 2020 @ 22:49
    I would like to hear an update from you guys about the potential US Dollar spike and what factors are now in play that affect timing of the trade happening, or factors that might be shaping it not happening.
  • mn
    man n.
    30 May 2020 @ 21:32
    Happy to see Ash taking the feedback from previous discussions about easing how much he sells RV to us, It's been my only real annoyance with this platform so far! I think it's a British thing of not being so used-to being so strongly sold to, who knows, but I really love how quickly you folks take feedback and the speed you take these positive pieces of constructive criticism 🙏 Really enjoying it, so thank you!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      30 May 2020 @ 22:19
      Totally agree, these guys have been great about responding to well intended positive critiques. Like you, I’m good with an occasional “reminder”, but when it becomes obvious and repetitive it’s unseemly.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    30 May 2020 @ 21:23
    What a difference a day makes. Watching this on Sat I think we can add to “historical unprecedented” the fact that numerous Cities (NY, Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, Lexington, LA, San Jose, Oakland, Sacramento, Portland, to just mention a few) have morphed from Protests to Looting to Rioting to Destruction of Public and Private property to the blocking of Highways to Curfews to declarations of state of emergencies all superimposed upon a quasi lockdown during a national Pandemic. Russell Clark (great interview, but boy did he ignite the RV political sensitive) might wonder how China views the US currently while we are burning, looting and destroying our cities as well as further dampening our willingness to travel and consume. Fortunately MMT has arrived and we no longer need to consider the economic negatives of destroying our Cities and further weakening our economy. So...let’s bring in some historical economic and political experts who can tell us what happens when a Society/Culture burns it’s Cities and furthur slows it’s economic activity during a Pandemic several months before a national election.
  • mB
    marc B.
    30 May 2020 @ 20:12
    Great convo as usual. I am interested in understanding this comex gold situation going on right now. They are going to start storing physical in London? It sounds like this won’t affect gold but interested. Also, how is the price of gold determined? Interested.
    • mB
      marc B.
      30 May 2020 @ 20:14
      I’m also interested in technology companies outside of the US. Any investment companies maybe etf provider in this space? I know it’s early but would enjoy learning.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 May 2020 @ 20:07
    “Simulacrum”— outstanding word, Ash! Thanks for the introduction.
  • JG
    JAMES G.
    30 May 2020 @ 19:57
    The daily briefings are excellent but I am hoping next week you will talk more about U.S. equities which was a subject that was not discussed much over the last three days.
  • WM
    William M.
    30 May 2020 @ 17:26
    These daily briefings are one of the few good things to come out of the virus misery....thanks guys!
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    30 May 2020 @ 16:48
    Ash and Ed are doing a great job. Clear, straight to the point, always pausing for extra explanations for the newcomers to the topic. Well done for these past months.
  • CE
    Ch E.
    30 May 2020 @ 14:53
    We had Richard Werner on - this was great - thank you. I recommend also Bill Still (Secret of OZ documentary): in these times he might provide an Framework in American perspective relevant for finance, social times. Was amazed so many people did not about “Princes of the Yen”, but they will be stunned by films by Bill Still.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      30 May 2020 @ 16:29
      Richard is great about Central Banks, but too bad he loves banks in general and is pretty deep in conspiracy theories (anti-vaxxer, thinks the CIA created Bitcoin but has zero evidence for it, etc).
  • IP
    IDA P.
    30 May 2020 @ 10:21
    I think that for the question regarding the Cinese yuan and most of all the future scenarios for the Eurozone, you should please invite Russell Napier. For the technical situation of the markets please invite Brandt Hackney (Wolf on wall Street) he is an excellent technical analyst who combines technicals, intermarket flows and macro.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      30 May 2020 @ 15:52
      I really am wondering why I got a thumbs down on this, others suggested Russell napier as well no thumbs down
  • JI
    Jose I.
    30 May 2020 @ 13:31
    Some suggestions for interviews: Michael Pettis, Russel Napier, Nout Wellink, Kenneth Rogoff, Mervin King
  • JI
    Jose I.
    30 May 2020 @ 13:22
    It would be great to have an update from Raoul of his views he explained in the May 11 video. What has he learnt from the “What’s next” interviews, the evolution of the markets, insights from other conversations he has had or things he might have observed in the last three weeks. What aspects reconfirm his framework, what has he changed or fine-tuned in the framework? What are the triggers or inflection points we should pay attention to? It would be great to have Raoul’s views in terms of potential timeframes. Particularly, because I could well imagine that his direction is right, but the Fed/Gov can continue to muddle through with the debt and more debt play and kick the can down the road. Of course it cannot continue forever but maybe for some more years…until the next bigger crisis. Since last time they have managed to play this game for more than 10 years.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:13
    wait wait wait wait wait and see...Investing involves risk If you wait for no risk , you will make peanuts
    • ZI
      Zartashia I.
      30 May 2020 @ 00:05
      Actually, the greatest verifiable returns are made by those who take the LEAST risk.
    • ZI
      Zartashia I.
      30 May 2020 @ 00:08
      Regarding EURUSD, his frame of reference / trade time window is somewhat LONGER than a few days, I think!
    • MT
      Mike T.
      30 May 2020 @ 13:09
      Zartashia there are occasions when commentary on this forum becomes almost nasty. I have no wish to insult anyone at anytime. With no malice intended your comment regarding risk is profoundly wrong.
  • JW
    J W.
    30 May 2020 @ 13:04
    Interesting review of the geo-political influences on markets and society as a whole. I am working my way thru the Goldman Sachs report "In Gold We Trust" (all 356 pages - there is an abbreviated version btw :-) and this touches upon many of these themes as well. As far as an interesting person to comment on the world I was thinking the other day about Neal Stephenson ('The Baroque Cycle' and other books) - I wonder if his technological and sociological narrative can create a compelling Real Vision interview. For the GS Report, see https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Extended-Version-english.pdf
  • VS
    Ville S.
    30 May 2020 @ 10:14
    I would be interested to have some kind of place where to see which interviews have the best thumbs up / down ratio.... I don't have time to watch them all but I don't want to miss the good ones. That's why it is also good when you guys recommend a specific one like you did today...
  • HF
    Hector F.
    30 May 2020 @ 09:56
    Ed and Ash, I applaud your willingness to discuss the societal causations related to economic reality. I believe that its analysis worth having. In this regard, I think historical context as a lends for these types of discussions will be useful. It would be amazing to get Gram Allison to discuss his take on the current China situation https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/ and a market historian who can deep dive into the comparisons of 1960:s. Keep up the great work!
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    30 May 2020 @ 08:25
    A, speaker witch is really interesting is a man who nows central banks and banking system in China. Nout Wellink, he also predicted a recession with in a year at September 2019. Also he nows were China is investing, does maybe it helps us to get focus on emerging markets.
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    30 May 2020 @ 07:34
    Ed, I’ve been considering your question in ask me everything about RVDB going forward and how could you guys improve RVDB. I love listen to RVDB, some points are small. - The Roger day, when you finish it on closing Europe time send it on that time. Also nice for your Europe audience. - More graphs and Screens share, in the conversation. So we also can see it. If you have a news paper artikel, we see the headline. Nice that you put the articles now in context. - You have so much interviews but it is nice to give a small rap up of the interview of the day and what does it mean for the theory of raoul. So just more explanation. - Try to have everyday a new quest in the weak RVDB. So not two times Ed and Roger or ash and Ed. Also nice to have one in the week a day trader in the show, - To have the short time (week) perspective and explain what is happening. - The interviewer could be more critical. Ash, sometimes you give to much compliment. Please be more devils advocate and put a different perspective to it. Roger says the European banks are in worst condition. But never asked the question why are the banks in so bad shape? Is this because of the conditions central banks ecb does? Could this also happen in United States? About the politics on November. This is real difficult in United States, when I watched the news on CNN or fox's I asked my self do I see the same news. Does the United States have a instuut what calculate what the program means for the economic and budget. In the Netherlands we have that. - please stick to the numbers and also invite vieuws of a broad. When I think about politics and numbers. Maybe is nice to make a poll and question. If you are as an investor and be the president of united states. How much percentage will you spend on what category: like army, tax returns, schools, health care etc. Then this comparing to different nations. Maybe even asked a republican and a Democrat. So instead of a debate make it more choices regulate it. So I hope it helps you guys and Ed. I love your show
  • VA
    Victoria A.
    30 May 2020 @ 07:16
    Hi! You guys spoke about that potentially an EM could lead the growth out of this recesession after China did so in 08/09. I was immediately thinking of India. Maybe there could be a deeper discussion into that on RV?
  • VB
    Vikram B.
    30 May 2020 @ 06:58
    Hi @Ash There are two thinkers who seem to have a sense that the 2020s will be a turning point - would be great to see them talk with each other to see the overlap between their frameworks. - Neil Howe - George Friedman (formerly Stratfor)
  • BL
    Bart L.
    30 May 2020 @ 06:42
    USA was scheduled to contribute $235m or 23.4% of the total WHO budget for the 2020/21, or was due to until Trump’s announcement
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:27
    You asked for comments on what viewers would find interesting. Here's my thought: I'd love to see some COVID skeptics interviewed. You've, spent a fair amount of time talking about how the virus is going to have a significant impact. No doubt it has. But, now that we have some more data: Are the death stats correct? Why were some states (e.g., New York) seemingly impacted to a much greater degree than others (e.g., Florida), despite some demographics that would seem to put them on an even keel (e.g., population age). Were the lockdowns worth it or, given the unknown rate of asymptomatic spread, were they largely ineffectual? Given what we seem to know now, should policymakers be advocating a second lockdown if the virus re-emerges in the Fall? What was the impact of PPP and fed policy? Is there a larger story to be learned about the impact of social media on fear and reaction? I offer this as some insight into the skepticism. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html I suggest this topic as a vehicle to begin to understand how social media will impact future catastrophes and perceived threats.
    • ZI
      Zartashia I.
      29 May 2020 @ 23:54
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/asias-hidden-deaths-coronavirus-fatalities-covered-undercounted/
    • TM
      Tom M.
      30 May 2020 @ 03:36
      No thank you, I would prefer if RV is kept free of junk science conspiracies.
  • RC
    Ron C.
    30 May 2020 @ 02:26
    Great update on Canada Peter, thank you!
  • TR
    Tim R.
    30 May 2020 @ 02:18
    a developing country having the world's reserve currency makes me giggle
  • BE
    Brent E.
    30 May 2020 @ 02:14
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/29/markets-not-paying-attention-to-climate-crisis-imf-warns
  • jR
    james R.
    30 May 2020 @ 01:04
    Recommend Gen Spaulding brought back to give his update on the China story.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    30 May 2020 @ 01:02
    Politics and economics are intertwined and you cannot fully understand each without understanding the other. Historical comparisons / analysis of politics would be a plus for RV. Currently reading the book "the great depression - a diary" by Ben Roth. It's written by a middle class lawyer during the 1930s. The sentiment and 'gossip' expressed in it are stunningly similar to today. Highly recommend it to anyone interested in looking for historical parallels to today!
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:58
    As I wrote in more detail in today's AMA for Ed, I so much enjoy when Ed and Ash summarize and contextualize interviews on the platform. If offered a second suggestion as well. Thanks.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      30 May 2020 @ 00:59
      If offered = I offered
  • RD
    Ruediger D.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:53
    What about HSBC's exposure to Hongkong?
  • DS
    David S.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:38
    I would suggest that Amsterdam may be the next EU international banking center after Brexit. Amsterdam was the leading financial center of the world in 1800 when London took over the top spot. About 90% of the Dutch citizens speak English - lingua franca of the international business world. Amsterdam has established leaders in FinTech industries. Time will tell, but Amsterdam is a leading consideration not mentioned. DLS
  • BB
    Bob B.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:27
    Wondering about a social mood framework? I don't mean sentiment but rather the cyclical mood changes. Probably the most well known example would be hemline indicator. But deeper is the mood based on the change of the acceptable hemline. Are there frameworks which suggest types of leaders, living styles, sports or even movies? Neil Howe has his Fourth Turning which suggests some societal attitude changes but are there more detailed frameworks worth reviewing?
  • TA
    Truitt A.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:18
    In response to your request of what we would like to see, I would love to see Raoul interview Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance. Raoul recommended that book a few years back and it has a lot of great parallels to today as many countries fight the on-going currency war.
  • SS
    S S.
    29 May 2020 @ 22:19
    I thought Raoul does the Friday DB? What happened?
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      29 May 2020 @ 22:31
      Hi, Steve. Thanks for the comment. Raoul wasn’t available to film today — but should be rejoining me next Friday.
    • GS
      Gary S.
      29 May 2020 @ 23:11
      EUR USD trade didnt go the way he wanted...
    • KS
      Karin S.
      30 May 2020 @ 00:16
      He's taking the Coconut gals for a walk
  • ES
    Elizabeth S.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:07
    With this talk about all theI would love conversations on how this period of upheaval effects thinking about long term investing. How much should this change how I’m saving for retirement?
  • DS
    David S.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:54
    The EU will figure it out as a confederation of sovereign states. It will be difficult as there is such a lack of committed leadership. Can any system survive when all members must agree on everything? It will be exceedingly difficult. The Euro will be much more interesting to watch as the Euro bureaucrats try to hang on their paychecks with dear life. We will see a great deal of creativity before their bell tolls. I hope my bell tolls after theirs. I would hate to miss so much creativity. DLS
  • LK
    Lenka K.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:37
    Im gonna write it here just because I know RV is gonna read it. I recently watched your Expert view with Matt Rowe talking about long vol trades and portfolio construction. I have noticed that I much more enjoy your expert view´s older (longer) intros. I just love them. Same for The Interviews. I watched on YT your interview with Russell Clark called Two Trouble Sectors. I just love the intro, the shorter version is OK but the longer one makes it somehow special. The last thing is about the outros about "Organic YT views", Im just gonna say I much more prefer to see Raoul at the end of the videos, he says it much calmer, I find myself even listening to him at the end and not trying to roll up other page as fast as possible. Raoul just fits there much more IMO.
  • DS
    David S.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:23
    The Chinese understand American politics, electioneering and President Trump. They provoked the political announcements by President Trump today on Hong Kong so the US would change its position. The new rules make it easier to affect the Hong Kong takeover by China. The announcement about funding the WHO is to provide cover for the administration's handling of the pandemic. You must blame someone! Otherwise it is your fault. DLS
  • GP
    George P.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:17
    For the avoidance of doubt, there is no British Law, but English Law.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:12
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1266499812716879874
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    29 May 2020 @ 23:12
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1266499812716879874
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    29 May 2020 @ 22:55
    Mentioning possible voices I love hearing your previous guest Ian Bremmer's take on these issues, and for big picture analysis Francis Fukuyama is great at placing political events in a historical context.