Daily Briefing – May 7, 2020

Published on
May 7th, 2020
Duration
33 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 7, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ed Harrison, and Roger Hirst

Published on: May 7th, 2020 • Duration: 33 minutes

Real Vision's Managing Editor Ed Harrison is joined by Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Harrison and Hirst examine the effects of central bank liquidity on asset markets. Real Vision's Peter Cooper gives an overview of the Eurozone's economic future, the challenges Italy faces next as they descend from the peak of the outbreak, and Norway's central bank cutting rates to zero.

Comments

Transcript

  • wj
    wiktor j.
    11 May 2020 @ 21:43
    Please dont comment on Sweden when you have NO Idea whats going here. Sweden was NOT prepared. There arent ANY masks or protective gear for the doctors nor nurses. Elderly homes get NO help. The elderly people here in Sweden get to pumped up with drugs and let die. There are doctors from elderly homes now that have created court cases against the government. Nurses and doctors in Stockholm are being told to come to work even if they have Covid-19. Sweden is massively under reporting deaths by a factor of 4. The ONLY country prepared for this was Finland. Sweden will probably be the next Italy in due time. I have seen videos of elderly die in their beds and get NO help from anyone. I was thinking of the "final solution" when I saw those videos! And every day in the TV we are being told that there are beds in the ICU! The gov of Sweden is lying to everyone. I have read somewhere that the reason they are doing this is for the Stockmarket NOT to crash more. But if this is correct I don't know. Dont get me wrong I am not for a total shutdown but lets try to promote some natural antiviral things like vitamins etc get a face mask and back to work. We did live through pandemics before modern medicine!
  • JK
    Jens K.
    8 May 2020 @ 09:35
    I would argue that the jury is still out for Sweden. Both in terms of death per capita and in terms of the economic impact. 1. Death per capita in Stockholm is high compared to many countries and government is afraid that the infection will spread to the rest of the country now. 2. Our Nordic neighbors can now go back to a situation that is closer to normality than the Swedish approach since the number of infected is so slow. Sweden probably have to continue our strategy for the foreseeable future since the number if infected is still high.
    • JB
      Jeffery B.
      8 May 2020 @ 23:40
      Your argument about Sweden is flawed. Their CFR is right in line with the US, albeit slightly higher, but they are FUNCTIONAL! How many millions or tens of millions of people will have shortened lifespans due to the poverty they will be thrust into as a result of asinine lockdown policies?
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    8 May 2020 @ 10:30
    As Roger said, what is ultimately important is the total amount of suffering produced by the different levels of lockdown chosen by each country, and that cannot be known until we look back on this in the future. We know economies and therefore people are suffering now and are going to suffer more. We do not honestly know how effective lockdown measures have been at containing the virus. I think lockdown measures may be having less of an effect at limiting infection than originally hoped for, and the Swedish data support this, because their numbers are not actually that different from anyone else's once you filter out international differences in epidemiology and health care system capacity. This virus is highly contagious. People forget that the original stated logic for pervasive lockdown was to prevent healthcare systems from being overloaded. Both Canada and Sweden have achieved this for example, with different levels of lockdowns in place.
    • JB
      Jeffery B.
      8 May 2020 @ 23:38
      YES! The purpose was to "flatten the curve" and to buy time for healthcare to not be overwhelmed and to add capacity. Mission more than accomplished. Now stop changing the narrative...open it up...now.
  • JB
    Jeffery B.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:36
    Roger is spot on...we 100% will look back on this five years from now and say "we totally blew it". Well it's unfortunate that we can't use our brains and make that realization now and open it up, responsibly. Ed is right, the Swedes are nexgen thinkers on this one.
  • DS
    David S.
    7 May 2020 @ 22:51
    Mr. Koo's solution should have been in the original Euro documents. It is too late now. If you were a wealthy Italian would you buy Italian bonds. If you were a wealthy Greek would you buy Greek bonds. If you were a wealthy Argentinian would you by Spanish bonds - maybe. DLS
    • RR
      Ramon R.
      8 May 2020 @ 01:14
      Argentina and Spain are two different things
    • DS
      David S.
      8 May 2020 @ 02:57
      Ramon R. - Sorry that was a little tongue in cheek. I meant no offence. I was just making the point that Italian banks may have to buy Italian bonds, but wealthy Italians can buy bonds in Germany the US or China. The Italian Banks are already in trouble. How can they buy the number of Italian bonds that the government of Italy needs? It is only the European Central Bank with the backing of Germany that "Whatever It Takes" can print enough money. Mr. Koo's idea would have worked in the beginning of the Euro. In a grab for yield, European banks bought Greek, Spanish, Italian, etc. debt because the European Central Bank said they were behind the debt of all members. In addition, you did not have to reserve against any losses as it was backed by the full faith and credit of the European Bank. (Tongue in Cheek again.) The politicians created Euroland. Now there is no way to save it. DLS
    • JV
      Jan V.
      8 May 2020 @ 10:10
      I read his book about the balance sheet recession. It was a nice theoretical thinking exercise, but it didn't seem achievable for the reasons mentioned.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 May 2020 @ 19:39
      I am hoping that Mr. Harrison interviewed Mr. Koo for RVTV. I am looking forward to his interview as always. DLS
  • VJ
    Victor J.
    8 May 2020 @ 18:16
    Peter Cooper with a great delivery on that intro. Well done and thank you!
  • ml
    m l.
    8 May 2020 @ 17:43
    Yes more macro ! I don’t miss all the interviews that I got paywalled from because they moved to a higher tier without communication... jeez I miss the Grant Williams content I originally subscribed to this platform for which is non existent now.. not surprised if see more pure advertisement videos like the past.
  • KN
    Kresten N.
    8 May 2020 @ 10:12
    haha, when Peter said it was Wednesday, I got confused and started looking for the daily from the next day :)
    • GH
      Gabrielle H. | Real Vision
      8 May 2020 @ 14:31
      We've updated the intro so that Peter is saying "Thursday" and not "Wednesday" so that there isn't any more confusion. I think it's fair to say that it's a little difficult at times to remember the day of the week. Time is blurring together...
    • ns
      niall s.
      8 May 2020 @ 17:23
      Gabrielle , que haces aqui ? Has cambiada caballos ? Hola desde Buenos Aires Niall
  • PU
    Peter U.
    8 May 2020 @ 11:57
    what happened to the CC option? Some of us need it!
    • GH
      Gabrielle H. | Real Vision
      8 May 2020 @ 15:05
      Hi Peter, the subtitles and the transcript have been added. Our transcriber has taken some time off this week, so we've been outsourcing our transcription work and the turnaround is a little slower.
  • VH
    Victor H.
    8 May 2020 @ 09:43
    Sorry, what does it mean to "weaponize the treasuries"? Thanks.
    • JA
      John A.
      8 May 2020 @ 14:18
      President Trump has threatened to default on the government bonds held by the Chinese. EVERYONE would start to question the value of the bonds they hold, if he did something like that
  • LC
    Lee C.
    8 May 2020 @ 14:13
    There is no grind upward until we hit the bottom.
  • EH
    Edward H. | Real Vision
    8 May 2020 @ 14:00
    Quick comment on Covid-19, Sweden's policy response and mental health. I wrote a post on it here https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/p/the-jobs-picture-coronavirus-response I think the mental health issues from unemployment and lockdown isolation are important and can't be as fully captured as deaths from infections. The goal has to be to allow people as much freedom as you can on a sustainable basis until the threat of the virus passes. That's likely to be months and years as we get a vaccine or achieve some measure of herd immunity. I think Roger is right. We can't know if the Swedes are doing the right thing until months into the future. But, we do know lockdowns create suffering and we want that suffering to end and be replaced with some semblance of normalcy where we, are friends and our families are as safe as they possibly can be. Happy Friday and have a good weekend.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    8 May 2020 @ 13:46
    Greece has been praised for its early and effective response against the coronavirus. Greece is in early discussions with low case countries (Cyprus, Israel etc) to create a safe zone for tourists. One of the ideas thrown on the table is to test travellers right before boarding airplanes for their holiday destinations. The tropical Chinese island of Hainan is accepting tourists as we speak. Hotels rates are discounted around 50%.
  • RS
    R S.
    8 May 2020 @ 12:42
    Does anyone have a link to the BoA report about central banks?
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    8 May 2020 @ 10:37
    GReat discussion, keep it going, the Daily Brief is at the top of RVTV success stories IMO.
  • FS
    Faheem S.
    8 May 2020 @ 10:25
    Dealing with COVID-19 has proven to be a hot topic in that no single solution can be applied across the globe to in my opinion.Many factors like seasonality, population size and density together with testing and tracing capabilities play a part in minimizing the economic impact. Finding the balance in building up sufficient capacity in the health sector VS the preservation of the economy will be a topic many books will be written upon in the future.
  • II
    IDA I.
    8 May 2020 @ 07:52
    Sweden is like Canada, few people and lots of space, not comparable to New York
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    8 May 2020 @ 07:18
    Ed, I agree on your take of Sweden, I think it would be a disaster with a lockdown because Sweden is an export country and for sure will suffer anyway. People aged 80 or older make up around two-thirds of Sweden’s deaths. Leaders of other countries I think is afraid that the Swedish model is the right model. People who lose their jobs and business in other countries would not be happy and take their anger at the leaders who run the country
  • RG
    Richard G.
    8 May 2020 @ 07:06
    Here in the UK politicians have always resorted to two things to drive consumption: 1) Lining the pockets of elder baby boomers with freebies like the scandalous triple-lock pension and 2) QE to pump up house prices and supply dividends in the FTSE for their private pensions. However this time it won't work because the gig economy is going to the wall and as cafes and restaurants go to the wall, pensioners will have no where to spend their free money. Once the housing bubble pops it's game over for the UK and I worry for my friends who have small businesses, mortgages and families.
  • II
    IDA I.
    8 May 2020 @ 06:46
    isn't China bringing ahead the impossible trinity right now? they don't have to devalue, they have to pass to flexible currency rate with dollar so they won't need dollars to sell to pump up the Yuan, they will need dollars, but now they need dollars and then they sell them when need to keep the peg. That necessity will no longer exist will flexible currency rate, and they can open up their financial system which is what they must do
    • II
      IDA I.
      8 May 2020 @ 06:47
      this is a question, I can't correct typos sorry
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    7 May 2020 @ 23:34
    With regard to all the criticism of Sweden dealing differently with regard to locking down their population, we need to remember that this all comes from politicians, most of whom have spent their life focused on being popular. And as we recall from high school, the kids who aspire to be popular tend to persecute bitterly those who dare to be different. In this case, the concern is not for the potential lives that may be lost, but rather than a different approach may turn out to be better, in which case those criticizing Sweden would themselves be responsible for having imposed a worse course on their populace than Sweden has on theirs. From the perspective of the politicians it is much better that everyone follow the same course in lock-step so that no one (or no politician) can be criticized for not having taken the best course. Of course, this would mean that we would have no idea, in reality, what might be the best course, but it would protect the politicians from embarrassment, which is their highest priority. A more logical approach would be to encourage different approaches in different places, and to evaluate how each works out, in both the short term and the longer term. This is the first time in modern history that we have faced a pandemic of this magnitude, but it almost certainly won't be the last. We need to learn all we can to prepare for the next time. Certainly, following the advice of the "experts" hasn't worked out well, in part because the advice changes from day to day, and in part because their early predictions have been proven dramatically wrong, time after time. We need data and comparisons.
    • TS
      Thomas S.
      8 May 2020 @ 00:31
      Great points. Unfortunately, I think there are people cheering (including many in the media) for Sweden to do poorly so that their "side" can win. Very counter-productive but, as you say, if everyone does the same thing then no one can be shown to be wrong.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 May 2020 @ 05:13
      Many different approaches are a good idea to figure out what to do in the next pandemic. The culture and politics of the people yield different approaches. In China they can do a complete shutdown. In American it would be impossible because of our culture and politics. The gentleman who is in charge of the Sweden’s approach to the pandemic said the Swedish politicians did not interfere with him or the medical protocols. They implemented his plan. This, of course, could never happen in the US with either party. We all need to learn from each other. (I still cringe each time I hear Mr. Harrison use the word snapback. It is ok, I will get over it.) DLS
  • PW
    Peng W.
    8 May 2020 @ 04:35
    With all due respect, would you mind turn the mobile phone to silent mode while doing video recording? Or put the phone away from the desk, mate. Lol.
  • CH
    Connor H.
    8 May 2020 @ 03:56
    Ed, said "Grundgesetz" like a native.
  • KB
    Keith B.
    8 May 2020 @ 03:49
    This is immeasurably superior to watching the financial news with my breakfast in the morning. Thank you.
  • RW
    Robert W.
    8 May 2020 @ 03:01
    DAILY BRIEFING – MAY 7, 2020 Published on: May 6th, 2020 • Duration: 33 minutes
  • ns
    niall s.
    7 May 2020 @ 22:49
    Nice to see Ed considering the consequences of hysteria at last . Suicide , depression , and stress kill also , not to mention all other sickness that go untreated during Covid madness. For sure history will look back on this as the year the world went mad , spurred on my the media , social and otherwise .
    • DT
      Don T.
      8 May 2020 @ 00:47
      I agree, wishing only to add the possibility of rather depressing geopolitical ramifications in the coming years from the economic tailspin we are now witnessing. If the 2008 GFC contributed in part at least to the political divisions of 2015 to now, what is this going to do??? I can’t even imagine.
  • DB
    Douglas B.
    8 May 2020 @ 00:46
    When Peter said it was Wednesday, I believed it
  • MT
    Mark T.
    7 May 2020 @ 22:45
    Great intro Peter! You've got screen presence! And as always, I really enjoy Ed and Roger's conversations. Is the reason we're all staying home and social distancing to prevent the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed or to try and make it so no one gets infected? Hoping to eliminate new infections is a pipe dream. People can get behind 'flattening the curve', because it is a finite goal with a beginning, middle and end. Asking for anything more just isn't practical in this country.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      7 May 2020 @ 23:09
      A buddy of mine is an EMT. He forwarded a meme which is circulating among them. It says, "The end of lock down doesn't mean that the virus is over. It means that we have room for you in the hospital now." To me, that says quite a lot. A side point: Shame on our leaders for failing to follow simple commercial best practices such as: - Having a clearly defined goal for the lock down, - Setting criteria for where the finish line is, i.e., what are the criteria for ending lock down - Establishing a cadence for reporting progress against the desired goal and timeline, - Having a plan in case things don't go as hoped. - Communicating the above to the stakeholders, which in this case would be the overall population. I don't think we'd find a commercial business plan lacking these simple constructs, would we?
    • DS
      David S.
      7 May 2020 @ 23:28
      Mike D. - Great meme and accurate. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    7 May 2020 @ 23:17
    We are in the early innings of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is too early to start saying how anyone will come out of this! I hope for the best for all. I am glad there are many different approaches. We can follow over time to see what worked better. There is no reason to start handicapping now. It is just too early. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    7 May 2020 @ 23:11
    It appears recent hospitalizations in New York City have to do with people over 51 being infected by the younger people in their families. This is like all the school children bring the regular flu home from school. The kids are contagious before symptoms appear. Mixing in family units opens older people to contagion which they may not be able to handle. The virologist in Sweden could do this tracking quickly as their elementary schools are open. As the US opens, it may be that older persons need to isolate from their favorite family members. Exceedingly difficult. DLS
  • MD
    Mike D.
    7 May 2020 @ 23:01
    I like Peter Cooper's introductions. Well done!