Daily Briefing – May 8, 2020

Published on
May 8th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 8, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 8th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal as they look forward to the biggest voyage Real Vision has ever gone on: Global Recession: What's Next? Over the course of this two-week content campaign, some of the brightest minds in finance will be sharing their views with you. Raoul and Ash also discuss the broad impact and context of the coronavirus crisis and look ahead to what we will learn in the coming weeks from economic data. In the intro, Jack Farley analyzes the unprecedented labor statistics and shares the story of one U.S. worker who lost his life on the job.

Comments

Transcript

  • MZ
    Mark Z.
    20 May 2020 @ 03:51
    It's really eye opening hear what the other side of the political spectrum thinks. Novogratz take on AOC does not compute for me... But it is a matter of values. We need to keep our eyes and minds open so that we can trade without blindspots.
  • TL
    Tracey L.
    10 May 2020 @ 03:35
    The one thing most troubling about this interview, other than its utter lack of REAL content, is Raoul's smugness. While he may ultimately be right in that there is deflation and the world all goes to hell, what I'm hearing and seeing is an almost gleefulness in what may be coming. While the markets are a game to many, as I hear these types of interviews, it seems many are numb to the fact that there are REAL people attached to the unemployment data discussed. These REAL people are, or will be, suffering from these lost jobs. RV's staff are in cities where many of these REAL people will be roaming the streets. As Julian put it, because of all the guns in the US, he wouldn't want to live any place where there is 30% unemployment. I appreciate that confession. As an American, yes, I want to be positioned to protect my wealth in these trying times, but, I am sorrowful for what may happen in my country. Silently, I am routing for America and Americans. I hope we are able to dodge the bullet. I am sure most RV members living in the EU are wishing the same thing for their countries. I guess that's why I loved the interview with Tony Greer. In classic New York style, while he admits he may not be the brightest light bulb, his spirit conveys that he's sure as heck not going to go down without a fight. In my view, it's almost offensive and distasteful to see someone gloat about the pain that may be coming to all those not blessed or fortunate enough to live on a secluded island. While there may be many more losers in the future, there really aren't any REAL winners in this game. I do thank RV for the insights provided so far. The content has been helpful to see how the markets view people-- consumers first and human beings, well, not really. Thank you for all the time and energy put into the site's quality content. This is truly a marketplace of ideas. I am hopeful my comments add value to the narrative.
    • SR
      Suds R.
      10 May 2020 @ 04:46
      I'm with you on that. Im new here trying to learn things, which I am. But this smugness (not just from Rauol), but it does nothing to diminish the views which people have about these finance/banking guys. Oh well.
    • JS
      James S.
      10 May 2020 @ 06:01
      I thought he was just a bit excited about being able to go to the pub
    • HS
      Hendrik S.
      10 May 2020 @ 09:41
      Lack of real content is a bit true. But please give the guy some slack. He is just happy because little Caymen is opening up (and RV is doing great). Thats how everybody around the world reacts to the opening up of economies the coming weeks or months. Next Raoul may get really drunk in the local pub, maybe even a few times. This maybe be the same everywhere around the globe as well. The hangover will be next.... And this is also my S&P forecast for the next few months (so I bought some far out of the money S&P calls a few weeks ago). So go ahead with your vanity trade Keith McCollough! Keep shorting them stocks hehe
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      10 May 2020 @ 10:11
      I think Raoul has a genuine enthusiasms for his job. There is an inescapable tragedy behind the subject but to focus on that at every juncture would make impossible watching and equally draw the accusation if alarmism. Its also important to remember that this bubble has been extremely harmful; high property prices and suppressed wages have been a disaster, big companies with all the liquidity effectively becoming banks and muscling out or forcibly buying up competition and equities pumped up to a ridiculous value while interest rates have been historically low. The discontent has been extremely visible in our politics. I am very worried about the economy but politicians only ever act to change a system in a crisis. Millennials are mostly running really fast to stay still; no prospect of buying property or retirement. I speak to younger millennial who just think those things are for the ultra rich. As if those prospects belonged to different time. That is significantly more dangerous than deflation!
    • SS
      Steve S.
      10 May 2020 @ 10:12
      Don't confuse smugness with confidence and happiness. I don't think Raoul has a smug/arrogant bone in his body. P.S. If I made as much money as Raoul did on the EDs trade, I would be smiling ear to ear too.
    • Md
      Martijn d.
      10 May 2020 @ 11:44
      The fact that real people are affected by all of this it is not Raoul's fault. If you feel dirty by capitalizing on current events ("peoples misery") I can sympathize with that. But if you agree with his view of things to come it will allow you to step out of the way and avoid harm to yourself. Try to "educate" other people so they can protect themselves too, although I found that it mostly falls on deaf ears. He is excited because these are interesting times. He has a view and I don't see his attitude as smug, but more as trying to convey confidence in his views. Maybe a little too much bravado but isn't he Spanish? As long as he is willing to admit it when he is wrong if the situation changes I kind of like his style. Martijn.
    • CG
      Carl G.
      10 May 2020 @ 12:45
      Good for Raoul positioning himself in the world as he has and staying positive while so many are being negative - if he were being sad and miserable you'd also find reason to complain. I sense it's the island life that has a particular affect on you. Positivity doesn't amount to smugness and I've never met a complainer who is doing better than the person they're complaining about. Study your own apparent perfection more closely before you judge others for all they've achieved and are bringing to market participants via Real Vision.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      10 May 2020 @ 15:18
      Raoul has been extremely generous in my opinion. He proffered the retirement warning episodes prior to this collapse. He sounded the alarm bells and helped many people who listened. I think he is fully aware of the pain many people are going through and will continue to experience. I believe his "smugness" is nothing more than a competitive spirit of confidence reflecting how his narrative to this point is spot on. I was told for far too long how wrong I was for "not being long" at the height of the bubble or not spending my resources as every one and their brother over extended themselves on consumption. I too am walking around a little "smug", but I am continuing my charitable obligations of human kindness. I just have more resources to which to help. I'm grateful for this comment above because it does offer a single derivative of perception. I believe Raoul is a few derivatives deeper than "smug". Just my two cents.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      10 May 2020 @ 17:59
      I understand how you feel here, and also share some of the same sentiment. However, I don’t think it was smugness. The disconnect between markets and people’s real pain, which I have personally experienced some of as well, is striking, disturbing and symptomatic of the times we are living in. Think Raoul’s excitement was down to Little Cayman’s reopening and the fact that he could go to the pub, but I hear you nonetheless - staying humble right now is important. Raoul is a wonderful guy who does care about people, but I can see how the contrast between the loss and damage to life & market moves is distasteful.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 May 2020 @ 19:12
      And just to add to what Thomas W says, we were due for a correction of some kind, which should hopefully re align the economy to something more sustainable and productive, rather than debt fuelled. Unfortunately the bust phase is just part of the economic cycle that comes before the boom. We don't need to start crying and getting upset every time the winter comes.
    • CV
      Collin V.
      10 May 2020 @ 21:06
      I didn't get feeling of smugness at all from Raoul. I agree with a few commenters here. He was excited to go out for a change. I get it. I was smiling ear to ear when Raoul was talking about it, because I too can't wait to go out to eat and to over tip the staff. Real Vision has been the staple for my financial education. 35 years old, just getting it. Appreciate all the honesty and commitment to truth, even if it does hurt to hear. Thanks Raoul.
    • GW
      Geoff W.
      11 May 2020 @ 02:47
      Tracey, If you had watched any of the tireless updates (for all membership tiers) that Raoul has put out warning everyone of the doomloop and helping everyone to position correctly for these difficult times, the last thing you would accuse Raoul of is smugness. The RV team has done more to INFORM and educate people on the correct macroeconomic outlook than any other news network. I am watching RV in the context of what it is intended for - a macroeconomic financial news network. I don't see anyone on the network taking a sadistic pleasure in what is going on in the world. There is no need to get 'offended' for something that you are imagining. Nor should you feel envious of someone else living on an island whilst you are not.
    • PP
      Paul P.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:22
      Tracey, while your comment is fair and even balanced in a way, I experienced this video quite differently. As for content, I've been reading up on macro-economics every day since the crash started, and I found this video to be incredibly helpful. It added new information and gave a cleaner explanation of things I already knew. If you knew it all already, you can be glad that you're in the top 0.1% of informed people. As for smugness, I didn't see any. I ran a meditation centre for some years, and got quite good at reading the level of ego that a person is putting into their speech (as well as spotting crazy people, but that's a story for another day). This is the first video of Raul's that I've watched, but I already trust him. Everyone sees things differently, of course. As for the human tragedy, you're right of course about its scale. But people don't need pity—they need help. Be strong to be useful. The most compassionate thing one can do in this situation, it seems to me, is to try to protect the greatest number of people from the most financial harm.
    • PP
      Paul P.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:35
      Damnit, autoplay took me on to the next video. My comment was based on the video "GLOBAL RECESSION: WHAT’S NEXT? The Expert View · Featuring Raoul Pal. Published on: May 11th, 2020" Now I gotta watch this one to see if Tracey was right...
    • PP
      Paul P.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:42
      Ok I can see what you mean now, Tracey. It is jarring that the presenters seem to be in good spirits while the world is going to hell. But, the introduction did give the human angle. And I think Raoul was genuinely excited about the quality of guests they’ve got, and relieved about his ideas (which he's taking a risk in making so public) being generally right so far, rather than happy *that* people are suffering. The content was more like an advert for the two-week series of interviews than a prediction or education in itself, which is fair enough. Still the bit about deflation in prices vs deflation in purchasing power was new and interesting to me.
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    12 May 2020 @ 15:09
    Look forward to watch Kyrill interview Lacy, this is going to be quite interesting
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    9 May 2020 @ 21:49
    Gold now or gold later? (Would we expect another leg down in gold from liquidations in a new market correction?) would this answer be different for GLD vs GDX?
    • HC
      Henry C.
      10 May 2020 @ 00:36
      I wouldn’t buy GLD simply because of it’s exposure to HSBC - YMMV, but given it’s over exposure to Hong Kong, etc. I wouldn’t haven’t anything to do with any trade that had them as a counter party risk.
    • PP
      Paul P.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:27
      I'm also very interested in whether we should expect another leg down in the gold paper price. Presumably the physical price will keep on climbing.
  • RG
    Rob G.
    11 May 2020 @ 05:37
    Guys how do you chart US Treasury 2 or 5 Year Notes in IB. I can track the actual futures prices no issue, its the yields that I'm trying to find the symbol for.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      11 May 2020 @ 16:11
      Of the top of my head don't think IB support. There is of course TNX for 10 year yield.
  • ML
    Marc L.
    11 May 2020 @ 00:39
    Still not sold on Bitcoin....How is it not an avenue for criminal activity?
    • JO
      Jack O.
      11 May 2020 @ 00:54
      It is, just on a far smaller scale the traditional financial system. Plenty of reasons to not like bitcoin but that's not a very robust one.
    • CG
      Carl G.
      11 May 2020 @ 05:45
      Would be very good to hear Raoul's and others thoughts on that point.
    • AR
      Andrew R.
      11 May 2020 @ 10:04
      Interesting Jack. What are some of the issues you see with Bitcoin? I can honestly say I have been unable to find any major detractors myself but interested in your thoughts.
    • SG
      Syed G.
      11 May 2020 @ 10:39
      Just two facts: 1. The US $100 bill remains the choice instrument for all criminal activity. Globally! 2. There are other crypto currencies that provide better solutions for criminal activities than bitcoin.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    9 May 2020 @ 11:34
    If every non-US currency is going to crash again the Dollar like Euros, GBP etc. Shouldn't every non-US citizen buy US Stocks in Dollars. For example, I'm with Saxo Bank in the UK and my account is funded in GBP. When I buy US Stocks like Apple it converts my Pounds to buy the stocks in Dollars. If GBP falls hard against the dollar when I sell those US stocks I get credited in Pounds and hence I've made a killing just on the currency alone. Basic example. If I buy Apple shares today at $100USD per share. The GBP/USD exchange rate today is 1.24ish. If that falls to parity which is possible of 1.1 and Apples stock remains at $100USD when I sell the stock and get credited in Pounds I've just made 28%. Hence even if the stock drops 20% I'm still breakeven and higher odds over time is the stock goes higher. Am I missing something or is this blindingly obvious? RV Community please provide your thoughts? If I'm correct a flood of cash from outside the US is going to flood the US market and buying those 5000 Dec21 calls Hugh and Raoul suggested don't sound so crazy, but incredibly cheap.
    • EA
      Enrico A.
      9 May 2020 @ 11:49
      I also mentioned this situation (with bitcoin and gold) in the comments below. Interestingly Raoul said that if this situation played out (the dollar eating all other major currencies) it would end with the dollar eating itself out in the process (suggesting there will be an end to this).
    • SS
      Steve S.
      9 May 2020 @ 12:41
      Hi Enrico, Yes I agree with Bitcoin and Gold too. If you look at the 4900 SPX Calls for December 2021. The potential returns at Bitcoin Level. If we hit anywhere around 4900 before December 2021 the returns are like 40-50x and you only risk premium so its super cheap. The trade starts making money if S&P hits 3000 from next month and can close the position before December 2021 for huge profits.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      9 May 2020 @ 14:30
      Buying Dec21 Calls??? Oh dear, debit Options Trades buying Calls or buying Puts is really a sub-optimal trading strategy. Of course it can work but unless your timing is perfect the odds are overwhelmingly against the buyer I'll go even further, over time buying options as a go to strategy is plain dumb. You say they're cheap, ever thought to think why so and why the folks on the other side are happy to sell?
    • SS
      Steve S.
      9 May 2020 @ 15:08
      Hi Mike, I don't think its dumb. Raoul and Hugh Hendry recommended taking a look at it as a hedge as you only risk premium.
    • rj
      rodolfo j.
      9 May 2020 @ 16:04
      Hi Steve, Yes, you are right in the sense as being up in GBP even though the stocks drops 20% in USD terms. The issue that most be thought is in what currency you want to be "at the end" of the trade. It is linked to the idea of your "own personal" inflation, and in which currency it is.
    • lm
      luke m.
      10 May 2020 @ 04:59
      I think this is one factor that Brent Johnson talks about in his ''dollar milkshake theory''. international money will flood to the equities market as their currencies depreciate and the bond markets offer no yield. to answer Rodolfo, I think the timing has to be very precise to pull your money out of the inevitable explosion of the US stock market and transfer your money into hard assets before the economic reset is ushered in. The timing of this will be near impossible so I hold a balanced portfolio of gold, silver, bitcoin cash and managed to get some stocks on the crash
    • HS
      Hendrik S.
      10 May 2020 @ 10:25
      Several reasons for much higher s&p in short term, this one of them imho
    • CG
      Carl G.
      11 May 2020 @ 06:03
      In a recent interview, Raoul said that with baby boomers pensions maturing, and millennials unable to invest in shares because of a lack of cash, that he expects the markets to go sideways for the next 20 to 30 years. I therefore don't understand how that could translate into the market (SPX) very nearly doubling inside 18 months? Hugh is great but was an '08 doom monger who never predicted the markets could recover how they did - more so this time around he appears to be changing his tune. Bitcoin sounds a wiser longer term investment although as someone said above, won't governments attempt to control the potential criminal side by trying to bring crypto down - I guess there would be public outcry but if it's a means of paedophilia, trafficking, tax avoidance prevention, then isn't anything possible? Thoughts on a postcard.... :)
  • RG
    Rob G.
    11 May 2020 @ 05:37
    Guys how do you chart US Treasury 2 or 5 Year Notes in IB. I can track the actual futures prices no issue, its the yields that I'm trying to find the symbol for.
  • AS
    Anthony S.
    11 May 2020 @ 03:30
    Super excited about the new content!
  • SH
    Si H.
    10 May 2020 @ 22:03
    Raul, where people real money is made in the bond market. What do you mean?
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    10 May 2020 @ 21:10
    Could you do as a favor: you always talk about the bond market has always been right. Can you explain how this works. The actual mechanics. It is not something I can comprehend and I cannot act on the information unless i understand the mechanics. So would an educational explanation. The other thing I am having a hard time understanding is how the EURO works. So many people are saying this construct cannot work. But could we get an video that explains the EURO system how it works exactly and mechanically and what forces are driving it which way. Thank you!
  • DS
    David S.
    10 May 2020 @ 20:26
    It is important to recognize the difference between Euroland and the European Economic Community - EEC. The EEC is a confederation of sovereign states which have many mutual interests. The EEC exists because it can improve the economic activity of its sovereign states. Euroland is also a confederation of sovereign states. The difference being it was promulgated under law by politicians who were working toward a pan-European sovereign. The bureaucrats running the new pan-sovereign would be elected by the ruling party in each sovereign member state not by the population in general. Euroland will go down in history as an equally unworkable political idea as the nation building idea was for the US. The Coronavirus is showing how each country is protecting its own in Europe and elsewhere. This is not bad, it just is. If Germany, the Netherlands and Austria tried to save their fellow sovereigns, they would go broke also. The last 20 years would have been much easier if each sovereign had control of its own currency. Greece, Italy and Spain could not have overborrowed at such low rates. The benefits and liabilities of public policy in each country would have controlled the value of its currency. (From a distance the Euro may resemble a CLO i.e., a collateralized “lending” obligation with disparate economic members.) Euroland may have just been a mercantile idea for Germany and France to run the show in the first place. Unfortunately unwinding the Euro is probably above the pay grade of everyone. DLS
  • FB
    Frank B.
    9 May 2020 @ 20:10
    Raoul said Fed funds traded negative. What data point is that exactly? Where I am looking at Fed funds rate it's been 0.05% recently (https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/fed%20funds).
    • MH
      Michael H.
      9 May 2020 @ 20:59
      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-begins-first-time-ever-market-prices-negative-rates-starting-january-2021
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      9 May 2020 @ 22:00
      I think it was implied on sept futures
    • FB
      Frank B.
      10 May 2020 @ 09:51
      Thanks guys!
    • MR
      MARK R.
      10 May 2020 @ 19:43
      Dec20 FFZ0 and June21 FFM1 , are what I saw in real this this wkend !! Wacky if true !!
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    10 May 2020 @ 19:24
    I hope there will be some discussion about what the financial landscape looks like if coming out of lockdown goes better than expected.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    9 May 2020 @ 08:03
    For the affiliate program, I hope that it will not be only US-based stuff, since we in Europe are already quite baffled as what to do to store value and invest prudently...
    • MG
      Manish G.
      9 May 2020 @ 09:52
      I think Raoul and most of his speakers have been quite clear. And now the same has been reinforced by one of the largest Wall Street Legend Paul Tudor Jones too. The fastest horse right now is Bitcoin.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 May 2020 @ 19:17
      Meh. BTC isn't a serious investment. No one has a substantial part of their portfolio in it unless they are insane.
  • DL
    David L.
    9 May 2020 @ 13:51
    The death of the meat packing employee was poignant. I don't mean to minimize the anguish of his family and friends, but it would be of greater interest to a general audience if it were presented as part of a broader context (eg. supply chain fragility.)
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 May 2020 @ 19:15
      Agreed. I didn't get why that was in here. From a personal level I sympathise with the family. A lot of people are going to be suffering as a result of a pandemic. But it would have been nice if it were linked to a bit of statistical evidence regarding how the supply chains are going to be affected, as that will be having real world impacts.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    10 May 2020 @ 18:40
    Wow guys, list of speakers sounds amazing! Great conversation - TY.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:50
    Raoul mentioned rolling out an education section to help subscribers learn about fx, options, etc, but sounded like it was done this week. Anyone have any insight into this or its just a wait and see at this point? Thanks
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2020 @ 00:13
      Interested to know the answer to this as well. Thanks
    • MS
      Marie-Laurencine S.
      10 May 2020 @ 16:25
      Same, I doublechecked his Twitter feed but did not find anything about it. Could someone clarify? I would be very interested in that kind of content
  • BE
    Benjamin E.
    10 May 2020 @ 15:04
    Great talk. Ash Bennington is a great asset to the RV team. Very fluent rapport with Raoul Pal.
  • DK
    Dimitar K.
    9 May 2020 @ 13:12
    There is one youtuber i really want to see him on Real Vision: belangp (with a dragon logo) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0L5tqn6Td-s
    • TJ
      TP J.
      9 May 2020 @ 15:42
      I support Dimitar's view. Belengp is a gem.
    • GS
      George S.
      10 May 2020 @ 14:52
      Thanks for mentioning this channel is awesome his research on gold is stunning.
  • JB
    James B.
    10 May 2020 @ 13:40
    Looking forward to Hugh and Richard Werner!
  • JK
    Jappie K.
    10 May 2020 @ 10:48
    Does anyone have any idea how I trade india? IBKR doesn't allow me because I'm not indian.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      10 May 2020 @ 10:52
      You could use an ETF for instance iShares MSCI India ETF if you just want some exposure.
    • NP
      Nga P.
      10 May 2020 @ 12:37
      Inda is he etf for india
  • SP
    Steve P.
    9 May 2020 @ 15:43
    Markets will be fine. So many of us are learning the technicals. Between amateur traders enabled by technology and passion, and robot traders - the new low is a high. $SPY will go to $360 before it RE-corrects. Workers in retail and transportation will easily find work again. There’s tens of thousands of stores, hotels, etc. whose claiming ch 10 - j crew? No one shops there.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      9 May 2020 @ 16:15
      Learning the Technicals eh??? Hmmm. You won't find any Technicians or Chartists at a Professional Prop Trading firm these days. The only folks advocating Technicals today are Newsletter writers with something to sell. Not convinced? Ask any Technician for a mathematical explanation of the probability of success for a 'pattern' or an 'indicator' and then wait for a very long winded response which will be heavy with subjectivity and no mathematics and zero statistical probabilities evidence to back up their ideas.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      9 May 2020 @ 21:04
      In an interview Raoul linked to recently he stated he always starts with a chart, then goes and finds the story.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      10 May 2020 @ 10:29
      starting with a chart, is something moving higher, lower, sideways over one's preferred time frame is fine, but that's just providing context, nothing else but context. However there is zero predictive information in a chart for trade entry exit purposes.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 May 2020 @ 00:36
    The Euro may be dissolved completely instead of falling to a much lower value to the $US. The benefit of the Euro to Germany has been its low valued to aid in exporting. In addition, everyone put some of their "safe'" money in German Bunds. If Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands would keep the Euro, it would be as high as the German Mark would be anyway. In addition, you would still have the pesky bureaucrats in Brussels to deal with. How will all those Euro countries pick up the pieces? I do not know. What about all those Euro Bonds? I do not know. Ms. Lagarde will wish she were back at the IMF. The government of Italy is already paying vendors with Italian IOUs. Maybe that is their new fiat currency. It is easy to see the problems. The solutions are way above my pay scale. It is only common sense that the Euro is in trouble. Of course, it was common sense when Greece was being made to borrow billions of Euros to bail out all the other country's banks. What about The Republic of Cyprus and Malta financial crises? It is often exceedingly difficult to recognize the obvious. In Euroland everyone is for themselves and they are not the only ones. I wonder if Russia has any Euros in the FX reserves. DLS
    • MT
      Mike T.
      10 May 2020 @ 09:39
      the following post is not said from a position of certainty of knowledge but purely based upon my own limited understanding. I would be most welcome if others are able to critique in a meaningful manner. Whilst we can all look from a distance and think surely the Euro is in trouble, in its present form it must collapse, something has to break soon etc. However is it not the case that the Euro must not, cannot be allowed to fail other wise the entire Global Banking Industry not just European Banking is in big trouble. Why? Sovereign Debt for the purposes of Bank Capitilisation rules (Basel III et al) is deemed to be risk free, i.e. any Bank with Sovereign Debt on its Balance sheet is NOT required to set aside capital to protect itself against Sov. default risk. In the event that any Bank were to incur a Euro demonated Sovereign default such a Bank would instantly come under extreme pressure as current Capital Reserves would be highly unlikey to cope with such a shock. I believe the absolute paramount need to avoid a Euro demoninated Sovereign default lies at the heart why the Euro will endure despite how from a distance it often looks doomed. Comments most appreciated.
  • TA
    Tameem A.
    9 May 2020 @ 01:25
    Raul - Great content. I am surprised Luke Gromen hasn't been a guest - one of the best macro voices out there. It would be very interesting to see you both talk bitcoin, gold, fed debt, and currencies - particularly where in the cycle we are and the timeline you both see things unfolding.
    • MD
      Mark D.
      9 May 2020 @ 02:13
      Would love to have Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden on to get the opposing view to Dollar Milkshake!
    • lm
      luke m.
      10 May 2020 @ 05:48
      YES, Lule gromen Brent and Lynn Alden would be fascinating !!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    10 May 2020 @ 02:15
    Did Paul Tudor Jones leverage limit long into short duration treasuries immediately before publishing that letter?
  • JG
    Jay G.
    10 May 2020 @ 00:22
    Raoul mentioned that there would be resources made available for gold storage, cryptocurrency, etc. Does anyone have links to these?
  • CH
    Connor H.
    9 May 2020 @ 20:18
    2 comments: 1) Please be generous sharing the upcoming Recession series interviews with the peasants in RV essential. Last summer we had all this available, now we have to pay up 2-3x to see the best interviews. 2) I dig Raoul's shirt. Looks like a fashionable pirate.
    • TR
      Tim R.
      9 May 2020 @ 23:24
      They don't call Raoul the tail master because of his long term risk allocation
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    9 May 2020 @ 22:24
    I am looking forward to what you have in store for us next week! It was interesting what Raoul said about too much noise for the markets to process. I think it's worth going back and looking at the South Sea Bubble because it distills down market mania / central bank ‘magic’ without all the moving parts that we have today. Back then the signal of the end phases was all other stocks selling off and the money consolidated into the bubble. All the companies that were providing people jobs (to go and buy bubble stock) suffered to keep the bubble going. Then the pin was the impossible promise of a 50% dividend. Fed language is intentionally vague; QE infinity, we will do whatever it takes etc. If they actually were specific no one would believe it. I think Europe could be the reality that breaks through the illusion. In the end I think they will have debt mutualisation but the market cap of FAANG stocks is unlikely to be their top priority in trying to resolve the situation.
  • JD
    John D.
    9 May 2020 @ 16:35
    Biggest takeaway here is live on a small island. Raoul being able to go out to a bar for drinks and food has my envy level at an all time high.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      9 May 2020 @ 21:00
      We can do it in Texas too, but without the comfort of knowing everyone in the city has been tested and given the all clear!
  • pd
    peter d.
    9 May 2020 @ 09:32
    i wish i could go to the pub best wishes from manchester uk
    • AM
      A M.
      9 May 2020 @ 20:25
      Oh for a pint or two of Boddingtons!
  • CH
    Connor H.
    9 May 2020 @ 20:24
    Question: What is Raoul's time horizon for the great inflation. Some prominent, wise macro gurus are saying 1.5-2 years, and others, like Lacey Hunt (if I interpret his interview on Macro Voices correctly) is predicting a much longer period of deflation before reinflation, like 5 years. Unless you believe that we will have deflation in perpetuity.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    9 May 2020 @ 11:33
    Hugh Hendri and Richard Werner.... Princes of Yen. I'm excited for that tbh.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      9 May 2020 @ 20:12
      I watched Princes of the Yen after the Hugh Hendry interview and loved it. Now these 2 guys are going to do an interview, fabulous.
  • SC
    SHYAM C.
    9 May 2020 @ 19:37
    Looking forward to the next 2 weeks. Had just one intuitive thought on markets not reflecting the real economy. Actually I would think they are leading indicator. The problem is we cannot put it in quantitative terms. Dot com boom rewarded companies about a decade earlier and GFC about 3 years earlier. In some twisted way markets are socialist in nature as they reward most of them before they deserve it. But then if they don't overshoot in either directions when and how do we identify opportunities?
  • MJ
    Mark J.
    9 May 2020 @ 19:27
    Agree with all the plaudits, RV is an incredible creation and coming in to its own right now in a very unique way! The small island theory is indeed an important one in my mind beyond the beers and iguanas. One question for you Raoul and team is what happens when we are on the other side of this, deflation has played out, MMT is in full force, the printing presses have been running for a few years from here. The consensus would seem to indicate that inflation is the name of the game at that point as fiat currencies have lost all of their value, hence the current (correct) bid for BTC and Gold. But isn't the key point that the aggressive fiscal policy then required two years from now in those countries that have debased their currencies, with a massive increase in the money supply, will be on post WW2 levels to reign in inflation will be at levels most of us can only read about in history books. My point is unless you are smart enough to base yourself or your company on a small island, the governments are coming to collect on any future profits you may generate at either a corporate or individual level. Income tax at 80%, death taxes, massive increases in capital gains taxes on everything possible including Crypto. Meaning all of these countries where zero rates and enormous debt mountains prevail, are places where tremendous wealth redistribution will occur, as the 1% pay for the 99% support needed through the years of the Covid aftermath. It's almost like Covid's true economic legacy will be wealth redistribution in developed countries. So if we want to hold onto whatever we can make through this period, we better think long and hard about where to live in the future to be able to hold on to any of it? Or maybe that ship sailed a long time ago to little Cayman and the like!
  • AP
    Ash P.
    9 May 2020 @ 16:28
    I cannot believe the people you've got lined up. Unbelievable. Raoul - you made explaining the distinction between monetary inflation and real-world inflation so easy that it makes me wonder why so many people struggle with gold (or bitcoin) as a deflationary hedge. Awesome stuff RV - so grateful for such valuable insights.
    • BG
      Brandon G.
      9 May 2020 @ 18:56
      I really liked the monetary deflation vs consumer goods deflation contrast as well. Pardon my ignorance: in this climate, why is it that the price of consumer goods (food, for example [oil and other things seem obvious since no one is going anywhere]) is dropping faster than the value of my dollars. When Raoul said "People can't wrap their heads around it." I just sat there and thought, "Me - I am one of those people." Can someone walk me through the economics behind that? Seems as though consumer price inflation would strike, as grocers' performance soars along with their stock price.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    9 May 2020 @ 15:11
    After this Daily Briefing, I upgraded my membership from Essential to Plus. FOMO.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    9 May 2020 @ 14:11
    great stuff guys! thanks again for making this happen...steering the ship.
  • AT
    Atul T.
    9 May 2020 @ 13:50
    Raoul - you just blew my mind with “my inflation is different from your inflation”...kinda obvious but thank you!
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    9 May 2020 @ 03:17
    Raoul says that the bond market is where the real money is made (not equities) as they remain truer to the fundamentals of the economy. I'm a bit fuzzy on what the play would be for the next 3-6 months though. Long 2-year US bonds as we expect the yield to drop below 0?
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2020 @ 07:42
      It is true, but it takes a lot of money and/or leverage to play. If you really want to play in the deep end of the pool, you need to invest with someone who knows what they are doing. In addition, size it correctly in your portfolio for risk. This is not for amateurs. DLS
    • JV
      Jonas V.
      9 May 2020 @ 13:03
      David S, well explained. So starting to 'replicate' the bond trade from the US since 1980 - now in India would be a 'safe' trade for the next 20-30years. ?
    • HR
      Humberto R.
      9 May 2020 @ 13:15
      Jonas, Raoul mentions playing India for the long interest rate declines, but he says you have to wait before you make that trade because after we get through this initial deflation, interest rates will likely continue to rise in India, as their demographic tail winds kick in. I think we have to wait a few years before we put on that trade. Closer to their "peak" interest rates, we jump on board and ride the wave down. Similar to what the bond kings did starting in the 80s through today in the U.S. That is my understanding. Let me know if I missed the mark. Thanks
  • DS
    David S.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:11
    These briefings with Raoul are in their own category. And, much like he described the stock market as a siren luring you in to short this market, he, too, has a siren-like quality luring you in to his compelling macro play. I don't know enough to know which thesis is "right." That's why I'm here at RV: to investigate and to learn. Either way, Raoul does it with a wry smile the whole time - as if he knows an epically good secret. Whether he does or not, it's a good reminder to all of us to have some fun along the way.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      9 May 2020 @ 06:39
      It don't matter. All Raoul knows is that he that loves RVTV & its a success!
    • HR
      Humberto R.
      9 May 2020 @ 13:04
      As Raoul and others have mentioned there are ways to play various outcomes and one or more should turn out to be "right". Hugh Hendry sees a possibility of S&P going beyond 4000 and others like Raoul see it going to 1700 or lower. If we get to 3000 in the S&P or higher in the next few months an easy play is to buy IWM (Russel small caps index) out of the money puts, which should be cheaper at that point relative to today. To cover the other tail (Hendry's view), wait for a substantial pull back and then buy S&P out of the money calls way into the future. You spend relatively little to capture the extreme tail risks in either direction. However, if we Japanize, i.e. go into an economic coma and just muddle along, then as Raoul mentioned in this interview, that would be the worst outcome for gold and bitcoin and we don't see any left or right tails.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    9 May 2020 @ 13:03
    Seems very likely that the US could have a recession AND inflation—at least in some sectors, at the same time. Prices are rising daily at the supermarket on nearly everything (and with fewer and fewer sales). Workers who are working are demanding higher wages in “dangerous” jobs (ie restaurants, etc.). Hospitals are running out of financial room and many are going bankrupt. We could see much higher prices in health insurance. And even though oil is down now, there is so much (continued) unrest in the middle east which is being exacerbated by starving people due to the covid-19 and harsh regimes so much so that all hell will break lose somewhere, it’s just a matter of time and oil will rise (and gold will keep rising). If we get inflation, P/E multiples will come down. Just a thought...
  • DF
    David F.
    9 May 2020 @ 09:53
    The training plans de-risks our investments, Raoul. Thank you
    • JY
      Jim Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 12:20
      Can you elaborate on "training plans". There is so much great content on RV you could literally make a full time job of watching it all! I'm trying to maximize my learning with my available time and would love to see an RV education program, but have not found one on the site. Thanks.
  • FS
    Faheem S.
    9 May 2020 @ 11:42
    In a world filled with despair and uncertainty, Real vision has helped piece together how the macro landscape may look going forward. Excellent analysis and thank you to all contributors
  • JS
    Jon S.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:43
    Just to expand on Raoul's comment about losing the bonds as an asset class. Could this be the catalyst for the equity markets to continue to rally?
    • se
      steve e.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:51
      Good point.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      9 May 2020 @ 11:09
      It means all those 60/40 portfolios are not going to work anymore. Asset managers will have to find something else for the part part. Gold? Infratructure? Bitcoin? We shall see.
  • JL
    Joel L.
    9 May 2020 @ 10:41
    Raoul is fired up!! This is what Real Vision is all about.
  • MG
    Manish G.
    9 May 2020 @ 10:29
    This is insane! The list is perfect. And the timing for this couldn't have been any better. And since I am becoming more and more of a Crypto Nut / BTC Bug more on Crypto and DeFi please. This clearly seems the way forward, now since even legends such as Paul Tudor Jones are getting into the space and seem to be calling it out very publicly and loud.
  • EA
    Enrico A.
    9 May 2020 @ 09:46
    If it's true that euro breaks (from current 1,08$ to 0,8$) then anyone living in the eurozone should be incentivized to buy gold or bitcoin, right ? Because even assuming bitcoin remains at 10K$ level for a year or so, the reality is that it costs 9200€ to get one now, but it would generate 12500€ when selling at the 1€ = 0,8$ mark. Same for gold. 15 years ago, the opposite happened, I bought some gold (spending my euros) and made a killing when it went ballistic but I was negatively impacted when I sold it back a few years later with a much weaker dollar...
    • MG
      Manish G.
      9 May 2020 @ 09:54
      Couldn't agree more with you on this.
  • DF
    David F.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:25
    is there a "best way" to short the euro?
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:11
      For retail investors, a not-perfect way is UUP. It's 57.6% Euro. UUP is not specifically Euro short but rather USD bullish.
    • RS
      Roger S.
      9 May 2020 @ 03:22
      There isn't a best way but you can trade FX futures on the CME or open a Forex trading account with a Forex broker to trade with whatever leverage you want from zero to "maybe you shouldn't{
    • KJ
      Karim J.
      9 May 2020 @ 04:26
      I'm in the same boat...I use IB and have both FX futures and Forex trading permissions, but am not sure which is the best way to approach it/set it up.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      9 May 2020 @ 08:28
      In Europe there are inverse ETFs that can be bought. I’m looking at them myself.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      9 May 2020 @ 09:38
      my heart nearly missed a beat when I read the comment about European Listed Inverse ETF'S, no, no, no! To all intents and purposes these have almost zero liquidity. With any trading/investment thesis, no matter how compelling in theory, if it can't be expressed through a highly liquid instrument, please walk away. I also don't like using UUP or FXE due to their less than optimal liquidity characteristics. To express short bias on the Euro, /6E futures is optimal, highly liquid with Options available also. Nominal Value of Contract equivalent to 125000 Euros, Tick size $0.00005, $value of 1 tick $6.25, Value of 1 point $1,250. Approx Buying Power, per contract, in a Margin Account $2500. Anybody uncomfortable with the size of /6E a much smaller contract = /M6E, nominal value 12500 Euro with min tick 0.0001, tick value $1.25. Buying Power reduction with a Margin Brokerage account $250 per contract. Note there are no options on any M6 <x> Micro contracts.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    9 May 2020 @ 09:04
    People watching RV have different background and motivation. The affiliate program is a great start to build up a knowledge base for different needs. Love the style of Ash as interviewer, and Raoul has a really cute dog!
  • MF
    Mike F.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:59
    Raoul, did you just say the euro is going to .70 cents? From current, 1.10?
    • SB
      Scott B.
      9 May 2020 @ 02:46
      I hear a lot about a strong USD but if the Euro goes to .70 against the USD doesn’t this mean USD is weak? Did he mean it breaks to 1.70 and he didn’t say the “1” for brevity?
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 May 2020 @ 02:59
      I think he meant .70EUR (to $1 USD)
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 May 2020 @ 03:18
      Sorry, I got that wrong. He said the EUR may go sub-dollar and then down to 70c. That means an increasingly strong dollar compared to a weakening EUR which fits the narrative.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2020 @ 03:39
      For reference, October 2000 the Euro per $US was 0.8231. DLS
    • DP
      Duane P.
      9 May 2020 @ 05:46
      He means EUR/USD goes to .70
    • JV
      Jan V.
      9 May 2020 @ 08:46
      As Roger pointed out before the euro didn't really move because you can't know what countries will end up leaving. 0,70 cents would indicate that Germany eventually leaves the eurozone.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    9 May 2020 @ 02:05
    I hate the intros to these videos. But this guy (his name escapes me) is pretty good.
    • RP
      Ronald P.
      9 May 2020 @ 02:43
      Generally agree although harsh. I think that the awkward drama tidbit is completely off brand/not unique or useful info (meatpacker) albeit sad. I think the actual statistics and daily set up is useful although the tone doesn't need to be so dramatic. We're here for info not Fast Money. Still a lot more love than criticism for RV
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2020 @ 07:47
      We need the next generation of young tigers. Let them try and learn. They often come up with great information I was not looking at. DLS
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    9 May 2020 @ 07:23
    Can't wait to see Brents interview.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    9 May 2020 @ 06:55
    Hasn't Raoul been in the pub for the last six weeks? ;)
  • BF
    Bret F.
    9 May 2020 @ 06:24
    Hedge Funds have bought up HYG and JNK. FOMC is supposed to announce their plans this coming week. Will all go smoothly?
  • DP
    Duane P.
    9 May 2020 @ 06:01
    I hope whoever interviews Lacy Hunt really pushes against his view that QE infinity is increasingly deflationary and no amount will be ever be inflationary. He believes that as long as the Fed is not directly buying goods and services that they can do this forever and we will just get worse and worse deflation, never inflation. I've read his quarterly reports endlessly and I just don't buy it. The primary dealers being a middle man is just a shell game. Printing to fund the government, directly or indirectly, the end result is the same: Continued debasement of the currency. He is a brilliant guy and Japan and Europe are proof that he is right so far. It's hard to confidently say a legend like him is wrong but I just can't wrap my head around his thesis.
  • CV
    Collin V.
    9 May 2020 @ 05:49
    Looks like the after party might be at Raoul's! Look forward to next week.
  • sc
    sung c.
    9 May 2020 @ 05:12
    I'm 70% in cash because every bear market has always had a nice bear market rally. It looks toppy and I think next week it will start to roll over as we approach S&P 3050 level. Just my humble opinion. Sounds like an excellent line up of experts coming on. Looking forward to it. :)
  • sc
    sung c.
    9 May 2020 @ 05:06
    Iguana BBQ anyone? I've heard they're quite good. :) Oh wait. Could give rise to Covid-20. Fun times!
  • DP
    Duane P.
    9 May 2020 @ 04:56
    Raoul, I really hope you have a conversation with Julian. I'd really like to see you and him tease out the differences in your views on the dollar.
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    9 May 2020 @ 04:08
    Looking forward to Chris Wood!
  • MN
    Mario N.
    9 May 2020 @ 03:49
    Wow! The next two weeks look lit!!!
  • VT
    Vincent T.
    9 May 2020 @ 03:16
    Exciting line up, can't wait! Truly hope that the interviews will be made available to RV Essential subscribers, please!
  • mf
    massimo f.
    9 May 2020 @ 03:13
    I dont agree with you Raoul when you say that negative interest rates are here to stay like in japan. The way out of all this is productivity growth and therefore tech, no? There is significantly more immigration than there is in japan so the massive amounts of elderly in need of care is less of a problem. We also have natural resources that we can extract which japan has far fewer. Increasing tensions with china means we will be manufacturing and refining more of our own products (we should have been doing that anyways but oh well). But if we are going go have two in the labour force for every one elderly those in the labour force will have to be far more productive which robotics and ai will allow for. Autonomous vehicles being deployed in mining and transportation along with robotics in manufacturing along with lots of low skill service jobs should allow for explosive growth in productivity in the coming decades if it is fully embraced. Boomers will still need to accept a cut to their benefits but as Stanley druckenmiller has pointed out the benefits they were promised are lofty to begin with. So, productivity growth coupled with the pension funds needs for a 7% yearly return (though some say it is higher but again benefits have to be cut) coupled with I think a new found propensity to save should have upward pressure on interest rates in my eyes. All in all I think japan is a relatively unique case and shouldn’t necessarily be looked at as the template for our future. I think tech can mimic the economic expansion the baby boomers experienced as their generation came of age and matured. In this case bonds aren’t necessarily dead they will just be bought for yield as opposed to capital gains as interest rates are lowered. That is provided we take ambitious steps and let poorly managed/legacy companies to default the japan scenario can be avoided. Europe is all over the place with parts of it perhaps on the Japanese path though still in my eyes vastly different from japan whereas others have hope. Though perhaps I am just looking at the situation through rose coloured glasses as a couple lost decades is not the introduction to finance I was expecting. Or maybe I have cabin fever and am just rambling. It does seem to me to be typical baby boomer thinking that their generation was the greatest the world has and will ever know and once they die or even stop running things the younger generations wont know what to do with themselves and are doomed to failure.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    9 May 2020 @ 02:45
    Great talk, Hope you all have a good weekend. Liked how Raoul mentioned the back and forth of the RV pro comment section, it is really useful. Just would like to suggest that you consider opening a forum section to some or all of the RV subscription sections where we can have discussions out of the video comments. Maybe you can even have a red/blue forum where people can post politically so it stays off the video comments ;) Thanks for all you guys and girls do!
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    9 May 2020 @ 02:34
    Get Stan Druckenmiller!
  • RA
    Ralph A.
    9 May 2020 @ 01:52
    Please, more Raoul!
  • DF
    David F.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:24
    Has RV ever interviewed Jim Grant?
    • CM
      Chris M.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:35
      There is a Jim Grant series on RV where he interviews others, but does inject a lot of his own thoughts during these interviews. You can find it under the "shows" tab at the top of the page.
    • MH
      Matthew H.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:48
      They have a whole Jim Grant series in the archive and he was in a recent 2HR video looking at history vs now
  • SS
    Steve S.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:03
    For the first time I've seen all the pool balls on the table not just the cue-ball, I wonder what this means...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 May 2020 @ 23:25
      I think it means we’re doomed.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 May 2020 @ 23:29
      Im sending subliminal messages...
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:24
      If we see goat entrails spread out on the table, that's when we know we're doomed.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    9 May 2020 @ 01:19
    As mentioned earlier in the week, the program for next week plays to RV's strengths: 1. Interviews with investors that the guy on the street can't reach. 2. Strategic macro overview from Raoul/RV team and guests. Excited to hear this schedule and looking forward to it. Hope this will be available to essential subscribers.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:00
    Raoul, Thanks for this. If you only had three books to teach someone the foundations of Macro what would they be?
    • CM
      Chris M.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:12
      Not necessarily a macro text book, but for any investor, I recommend reading Buffett's shareholder letters going back to the 60s when he ran a partnership. You can get back to 1977 for free on the Berkshire Hathaway website. You can buy a book that goes back to 1964 on Amazon (may want to look around to find cheaper): https://www.amazon.com/Berkshire-Hathaway-Letters-Shareholders-Buffett/dp/0615975070/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1511796222&sr=1-1-fkmr0&keywords=berkshire+hathaway+letters+to+shareholders%2C+2014 It is a lesson in investing and you can tie each lesson to the year he wrote it and what was happening in the economy at the time. That ties the macro of that year to how Buffett was looking at investments in his partnership and/or Berkshire Hathaway.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:52
    No offense, but today's segment seemed like an advertisement for next week; no real content as compared to prior segments. Additionally, Ash and Raoul sort of just passed the 'how great is RV' ball back and forth. I like RV, that's why I pay, so don't need to hear how great it is. :-)
    • cs
      connor s.
      9 May 2020 @ 01:03
      let the boys have a little fun. good insights were absolutely embedded throughout
  • CY
    Chris Y.
    9 May 2020 @ 01:01
    Ash is excellent as a host
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:01
    I like Raoul's point about watching the Euro break 1.07 for a possible beginning of another phase. These kind of tips are worth keeping in mind over the coming days.
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      9 May 2020 @ 00:57
      I'm already long FXE 102 September puts in my brokerage account. If this really works out, this has a lot farther to run. I really don't see how they can hold it together for another four months. Of course, I've been wrong before...
  • CN
    Charles N.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:39
    I may be even more excited than you all. Thank you for doing such a great job on behalf of your subscribers and clients. Cheers.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:04
    Opinions about Elon Musk's latest Covid-19 comments on the Joe Rogan podcast yesterday? He stated that the Covid 19 scare is far over blown and that everything will start opening up and return to normal in a few weeks.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      8 May 2020 @ 23:14
      Well hes conflicted and he better hope so or who are going to buy all those Teslas?
    • DS
      David S.
      8 May 2020 @ 23:26
      Mr. Musk is right at least 50% of the time. He was correct that Tesla is overpriced. He may be wrong the ease of opening up. DLS
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      8 May 2020 @ 23:57
      Didn't he say he'd buy used cars back if the owners couldn't sell.... good luck with that.. .
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      9 May 2020 @ 00:21
      Tesla is one of the best companies at selling a product and their product is... shares
    • DS
      David S.
      9 May 2020 @ 00:28
      Almost every public health expert who's spent 20+ years in the epidemiology field has a contrasting argument. He also tweeted right before the C19 crisis began that "the Coronavirus panic is dumb." That "insight" didn't age well. He's a brilliant man, but his arguments would be more convincing if he'd travel outside his gilded bubble to hot-zones or meat-packing plants or nursing homes where everyday working class people are dealing with the reality on the ground. Last point: All summer camps have been cancelled as of now. Tell me how parents get back to work full-time - back to "normal" - when they have to remain home to care for their kids. And who's squeezing between 6 people to order a drink at the bar of a crowded nightclub in the next few weeks? Sports venues, concerts, conventions, air travel, bars... what about those? "Normal" is waiting for us in the future. But that future is more than a few weeks away.
  • OC
    Otto C.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:54
    Bear Market rallies are always explosive during bear markets and today we just retraced .786% of drop from Feb 12 - Mar 23. Put your helmets ON because it's about to get exciting. There is no need to look at a chart to figure out that the rally is full of hot air. We haven't yet seen the effect of the economic paralysis. I agree with deflation forecast and that is why I sold my gold. All assets will be liquidated during this crash.
    • DF
      David F.
      9 May 2020 @ 00:19
      are you selling your gold because of deflation or because you think deflation will trigger a liquidity crisis? Raoul thought that with deflation the Fed would respond by printing more dollars and thus the reason to hold gold.
  • DS
    David S.
    9 May 2020 @ 00:13
    Mark T - I understand your comment about not an intensive market analysis briefing today. I think, however, all the RVTV crew are exhausted from working at warp speed to line up the next two weeks. I remember Friday nights just wanting to lay back a little. Have a good time in the pub Mr. Pal. I am looking forward to that myself when we open. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:59
    Even if Germany, the Netherlands and others wanted to save Euroland, they cannot afford it. They are facing massive problems themselves. The Euro is a political/fiat currency of a confederation of countries many of whom do not follow the rules. Like all fiat currencies, someday people will just not trust in its value. To a lesser extent this is also true of the USA as we print trillions of dollars with our eyes closed. I will have to trust in cash and gold in the near term. You younger folks decide what you think is safe. If the market tanks, counterparty risk will be a major concern. In the last counterparty risk crisis, the Fed had to step into the Repo market. It will happen repeatedly with pension funds, state debt, employment subsidies, paying federal pensions, the list goes on. The only good news is we are having beautiful weather and we can walk in nature. I will be extremely interested to listen to the next two weeks of great interviews. DLS
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:59
    This too shall pass.. I have rum.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:48
    Raoul asked for potential other EM experts to interview along with Mark Mobius—have you considered David Riedel?
  • RS
    R S.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:33
    Thanks Raul for joining these briefings every Friday. We all appreciate it!
  • cs
    connor s.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:20
    jack is a solid chap
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    8 May 2020 @ 23:14
    Obviously the equity market is a forward forecast and under constant adjustment - it does not reflect the current environment until a major event occurs. I would like to see Ash being a little more concise rather than an agree with Raoul and sales focused attitude. You can do it
  • MD
    Mike D.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:50
    Fabulous. I look forward to Fridays just for the recap with Raoul. Thank you.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:44
    It's really strange, I listen to all these brilliant people, and no one knows what's going on, or what's going to happen. Maybe it is true to buy and hold good assets. Everything else seems kind of futile.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:34
    Holy cow Raoul, that list of upcoming names/interviews are simply amazing - well done!!!! Can't wait until these interviews start. Many, many thanks for the great work you and RV are doing.