Daily Briefing – November 10, 2020

Published on
November 10th, 2020
Duration
37 minutes


Daily Briefing – November 10, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: November 10th, 2020 • Duration: 37 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he's paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators.

Comments

Transcript

  • JH
    Jason H.
    11 November 2020 @ 23:50
    TGT. The best.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    11 November 2020 @ 21:12
    proper DB. Tony is doing great job. Not scared to discuss his ideas and not everyone has to agree with him and play those trades.
  • WS
    William S.
    11 November 2020 @ 20:46
    Federal crackdown with Biden DOJ - not likely
  • WS
    William S.
    11 November 2020 @ 20:43
    Cannabis - all boats will rise - MJ - a play on dollar as well
  • WS
    William S.
    11 November 2020 @ 20:39
    Agree energy - buy collect the dividend of 5-6% until it moves
  • WM
    William M.
    11 November 2020 @ 17:34
    XOM offers a lot of value and AA credit rating. Some day we'll stop using fossil fuels, but this is not that day...
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 November 2020 @ 20:28
      Agreed. Oil will be around for our lifetimes. Maybe daily, worldwide consumption in 15 years peaks and stays at 80M bpd (who knows, I'm just guessing). Point is, it's going to continue to be produced for decades yet, and probably forever as long as there are humans. It's an amazing substance.
  • JA
    John A.
    11 November 2020 @ 03:41
    Tony needs to keep his political worldview out of his trading. Oil was not killed by ESG, ESG is not the cause of the oversupply of oil. The oil industry and more accurately: shale, has had more money thrown at it thanks to cheap rates. Oil output exploded. This made the United States grow the number of daily barrels they could supply. Saudi Arabia seeing another threat to OPEC dominance after Russia, wanted to kill US Shale and started trying to drive down the price. This in turn made others need to pump more to keep up with their dollar inflows as they need this to fund their economies. This also pissed off countries who just want to produce their supply and don't care about the Saud's oil dominance, so OPEC and OPEC+ started to grumble and get rowdy. It was a commodity price war that hurt oil. Solar and Wind didn't tell Russia to tell Saudi Arabia to get bent when they were trying to negotiate a reduction in output at the worst possible time. Trump wanted to cater to his base and was more than happy to see low gas prices. He was happy to see the United States become energy independent, but he had no idea of the unintended consequences. Frankly, neither did the industry. Besides, if you think ESG held oil back, then why the hell would anyone be bullish in a Biden administration? Do you think we will see LESS ESG investing if this election holds up? Not likely. There is an oversupply of oil in the markets, which in turn is going to correct. Because the cure to low prices is low prices, as marginal companies die the suppliers will shrink and an equilibrium will be found. Inflation too early might actually save some of those suppliers for a little while longer and drag this out.
    • DS
      David S.
      11 November 2020 @ 08:00
      John A. - There were many reasons for the shale boom. The biggest was selling of oil rights by land owners in shale areas. Those land owners are still happy. DLS
    • CT
      Chris T.
      11 November 2020 @ 12:41
      i think hes talking more on oil stocks where it has had a large impact.
    • JA
      John A.
      11 November 2020 @ 13:09
      Possibly Chris, in which case I am guilty of caring about the real economy when trading only cares about stocks. In that prism, I can see why and Tony and I tend to have divergent views so much. Probably why I am terrible at trading short term haha.
    • JA
      John A.
      11 November 2020 @ 13:23
      David, agree, but without dirt cheap access to capital, it never would have been overbuilt to this extent in the first place. The capital to buy the land and build the infrastructure was in abundance. The growth was fast, and it was noticed. My opinion based on how it unfolded. I remember stories going back a few years quoting that shale was profitable at $50 a barrel. Anecdotal cause I don't remember specifics, yet here we are stuck rangebound around $40 waiting for the shale producers to die off. I suspect the trigger for that to move higher is all of those bankruptcies clearing up.
    • JC
      John C.
      11 November 2020 @ 13:56
      Fair points but Tony did 3 minutes in the video on how he is not letting his politics drive his investment theses.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      11 November 2020 @ 20:21
      Cut the guy some slack.
  • VD
    Violeta D.
    11 November 2020 @ 04:38
    Can someone please explain to me what are the possible reason for gold miners to be down almost 4% on a day that gold is marginally up.
    • JH
      John H.
      11 November 2020 @ 05:22
      portfolio rotation? sell gold miners to buy value stocks?
    • JF
      Jess F.
      11 November 2020 @ 06:36
      Hi John, but aren't the best gold miners value stocks?
    • DS
      David S.
      11 November 2020 @ 07:55
      Jess F. Just buying other stocks. I hope they will come back soon. DLS
    • RA
      Robert A.
      11 November 2020 @ 19:21
      After reading Bill Fleckenstein for years....it’s just the way they trade and flop around sometimes.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    11 November 2020 @ 08:03
    Haley Draznin is improving a lot her daily briefing! Great introduction Haley! Keep it up!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      11 November 2020 @ 19:19
      Best intonation, cadence and Audio yet Haley. Substantial progress noted!
  • WM
    William M.
    11 November 2020 @ 17:45
    the DB redeemed itself!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      11 November 2020 @ 19:17
      Ash, Ed, Max, Raoul—lesson learned! Candidly, that’s the beauty of RV....it’s not that they don’t screw up sometimes (some of the stutter steps on pricing tiers come to mind), but they listen to us, are fair and boy can they they react quickly by reversing course or cleaning something up as necessary. They have earned my giving them the benefit of doubt.
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    11 November 2020 @ 15:09
    Always a good call with TG but Tony, why so sure of the "stimulus coming"?
  • JL
    Jason L.
    11 November 2020 @ 14:15
    Great episode. I learned a lot from both Haley and Tony G. Haley has improved drastically since she first began at RV. This is great to see. Can't express just how great RV is compared to all of the other financial news/media platforms that people consume info from. Keep it coming!
  • MS
    Martin S.
    11 November 2020 @ 14:06
    Really enjoyed that TG Tuesday. Good stuff.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 November 2020 @ 13:49
    bad optics https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-inc-pfe-chairman-ceo-001511415.html
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:03
    I got in 10 minutes before I had to quit. Recency bias...there was a test of the SP500 Sept low a few weeks ago in late October at 3200. Everyone was watching so it didn't fail. Then yesterday 11/9, the Sept high 3500-3600 was tested and rejected. Now seeing rapid rotation for 2 days and it's a trend? And value is now the anointed sector? On vaccine "news" tested on 94 people that is not peer/scientific journal reviewed?!!!! And no decision on the Senate majority? With the markets more overvalued than Feb 2020? wow, I am incredulous For now, fading highs and lows is a trader's dream for our interviewee. But interestingly enough, the SP 500 is up all of 150 pts since Feb or about 5.8%. All the market did is train investors that running red lights and staying long, no matter what, is "investing strategy".
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      11 November 2020 @ 00:54
      It's been tested on around 44,000 people with only 94 infections. I think you need to check your numbers: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/pfizer-says-vaccine-data-suggests-may-be-90-per-cent-effective/12865626 Even a cynical bastard and lockdown skeptic like me is impressed...
    • MC
      Michael C.
      11 November 2020 @ 01:38
      https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against Pfizer and BioNTech plan to submit data from the full Phase 3 trial for scientific peer-review publication. Note: "PLAN" for a peer review...PLAN. And I am always suspicious when a company breaks this news in a press release and the CEO makes the obligatory visit to all the business shows. If the CEO had cojones, he would have NIH or CDC break the news. And a 60 Minutes puff piece the night before?!! How opportune! I won't be lining up for the double dose, sub zero vaccine but good luck to those who do based on this "information." As the Great Communicator said Trust but verify.
    • VD
      Violeta D.
      11 November 2020 @ 13:17
      You don't have to be a cynical baster to be sceptical about the vaccine. First there is no published study. There is no other information about this vaccine beside that 94 people out of 44000 people study got infected. It happens that most of them were in the placebo group, so the suggestion is that the vaccine is 90% effective. There is absolutely NO data published on the study. Maybe it is 90% effective in 2 months and after two vaccine doses, but what happens if after 3 months it's on 50% effective and after 4 months is 20% effective. I think there is a very good chance for that. The fact that there have been zero mRNA vaccines before tells me that it is more likely than not for some unexpected issues to emerge. My gut feeling is that will not be the vaccine that will be most used. Other companies will come up with other times of vaccines including once that do not is mRNA paths for delivery and they are likely to be more successful .
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    11 November 2020 @ 12:52
    GREAT CALL
  • AP
    Andreas P.
    11 November 2020 @ 12:07
    Pfizer's CEO cashed out 60% of his stock on the same day the company unveiled the results of its COVID-19 vaccine trial
  • JS
    Jon S.
    11 November 2020 @ 08:38
    Can we have Tony on RV Plus one time, I have some questions for him. Many thanks.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    11 November 2020 @ 08:19
    When 19 minutes left, great comments Tony. Thank you so much!
  • DS
    David S.
    11 November 2020 @ 02:35
    Good discussion. Great that Tony is focusing on the market and not all the might-be news. All may be well with the new vaccine but there is still the damage of the long COVID winter first. We will beat COVID; it is just a matter of time. The stock market is often like the Oracle of Delphi. The information is clear, but the message is ambiguous. The Oracle told King Croesus – of rich as Croesus fame – that if he attacked Persians, he would destroy a great empire. Unfortunately, he lost to the Persians. It was his empire that was destroyed. I certainly trust Mr. Greer to be close to the market sentiment. The market, however, can certainly be ambiguous. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      11 November 2020 @ 08:03
      There is one thumbs down. The Oracle is watching. DLS
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    11 November 2020 @ 06:35
    That was great, best daily episode for this month easy
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    11 November 2020 @ 06:04
    Tony’s a Spreadhead? I knew there was something about this guy I really liked. Many a Warner Theatre (DC) show I’ve attended to see those Georgia boys.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    11 November 2020 @ 05:20
    Tony at his best
  • TA
    Truitt A.
    11 November 2020 @ 02:51
    Excellent and thorough review of the markets and the shifting. Love the Widespread Panic shout-out, TG! Wish I could have caught em at the Beacon!
  • JA
    John A.
    11 November 2020 @ 02:48
    The 30Y bond feels like it is going to decide what happens. Higher yields are not bullish for stocks at some point. Not with all of the debt out there. If the market could handle higher yields, we wouldn't have had the Fed reverse QT back in 2018. Maybe the historic short in the 30Y and the Fed being the biggest owner of TIPS is distorting what we are seeing? If you believe in inflation though, I agree that Tony is on the right track. I just think everyone is long higher yields because JPOW told them to.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    11 November 2020 @ 01:18
    Great discussion this week gents.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    11 November 2020 @ 01:07
    Great discussion, guys.
  • RH
    Ron H.
    11 November 2020 @ 01:00
    Appreciate this interesting briefing; thank you. This certainly looks like a major inflection point that will need to play out. The vaccine news is a big deal, and from what I understand the Pfizer vaccine would be the first 'ever' RNA vaccine, a major breakthrough in medicine. Nevertheless, the big question on my mind this week is whether or not this might be the biggest rotation head fake of them all. A final one before the other shoe, at last, drops into a depressionary reality. Things are very, very grim out there in the real world.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:52
    I pick Tony over the CNBC/Bloomberg guy every day. RV has a real opportunity to expand the Tues DB and create a better alternative for stock traders.
  • WT
    William T.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:51
    Good recovery guys, nice job Ash.
  • GP
    Gordon P.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:30
    Good segment today, guys, enjoyed it, thank you
  • SG
    Steve G.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:29
    Can you guys drop the Daily Briefing videos before or at least at the same time as you release it to other news agencies such as zerohedge? Really weird that we gotta wait for it on this platform when its out on others.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:29
    Excellent discussion today. Passionately dispassionate about markets. And a nice mea culpa too!
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:27
    Always enjoy TG. Straight to his point.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:17
    Great RVDB Ash and Tony. I like the way Tony described his way of viewing the election - the markets are not pricing in the controversy but rather accepting the majority opinion. Interesting thing to me to consider - the markets have no been pricing in correct outcomes for a while.... That's not to take away from the more positive acceptance of the current outcome - just means to me you still have to keep your spidey-senses sharp and watch the price, be honest with biases. There would be trades perhaps that are good regardless of the political outcomes? I wonder if or when it is clear that the market is more neutral - ie. has unwound any hedges/positioning that was to an extreme pre-election.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:07
    Thanks for everything you guys do. Y'all deserve a break from time to time!
  • DL
    David L.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:00
    Thanks guys. Always a pleasure to hear TG's insights.
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    10 November 2020 @ 23:57
    Great to have the daily Daily Briefing back! As always, love TG Tuesdays!!!
  • EH
    Edward H. | Real Vision
    10 November 2020 @ 23:24
    Great episode, Tony. Good to hear your market view.