Daily Briefing – November 17, 2020

Published on
November 17th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – November 17, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Dave Floyd

Published on: November 17th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group back to the Daily Briefing to evaluate price action in the S&P 500, the U.S. 10 year Treasury note, and a variety of currency pairs. Dave shares his framework for trading these asset classes, incorporating technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastic oscillators, relative strength indicators, Fibonacci retracement levels as well as some proprietary trading signals from Aspen Trading Group. Dave and Ash discuss how the relationship between price to volume can reveal “footprints” in various markets to identify inflection points. Finally, Dave shares his own views on the psychology of trading such as knowing when to be cautious and when to pull the trigger. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explains why the markets fell on Tuesday after record highs on Monday, looking closely at the timeline for a vaccine, uptick in coronavirus cases, Tesla moving to the S&P 500 from the Nasdaq, and US retail sales missing expectations. To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift

Comments

Transcript

  • MR
    Michael R.
    17 November 2020 @ 23:30
    TSLA has P/E of 875. Insane.
    • SS
      Scott S.
      18 November 2020 @ 02:10
      In 2001 my finance prof in uni went around shaming anyone who thought Amazon's business was sustainable after repeated multi-billion $ losses.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      18 November 2020 @ 02:22
      Hypothetically, Elon and Bezos both die in a tragic plane crash. Which company barely misses a beat and which one is exposed and goes to zero as the cult dissipates?
    • MC
      Michael C.
      21 November 2020 @ 02:14
      To Scott S your prof was correct for better than 10 years. If one bought AMAZN at the 2000 peak, it was nearly 10 years (late 2009) before AMZN stock stayed above 100 dollars, its price in 2000. And that doesn't account for inflation/opportunity cost. So one could prolly throw a few more years in. On the other hand, if one had patience, he/she could have bought AMZN for 10 or 15 bucks using a simple MA crossover system. Of course, we're ignoring survivor basis...everyone wants to talk about MSFT or AMZN or MCD, not Sun Micro, Sperry Rand, dept stores, Burger Chef who all went out of biz.
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 November 2020 @ 14:24
      Amazon had a clear business model edge that leapt onto the back of the consumer home purchase trend. Bezos had the vision for sure. Tesla is a fad stock where the vehicles do not have a CLEAR technology edge over the giant motor manufacturers. Once they get their act together they don't need to beat Tesla, just starve it of sales and maintain price pressures to stifle its progress. Tesla is now a purchase speculation on how long you can fool most of the people......
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    21 November 2020 @ 04:27
    I use Yahoo Finance to track my stock portfolios and their long term prediction for TSLA is (-2500%) for the next year or so.
  • AT
    Adelina T.
    19 November 2020 @ 10:50
    Great one! Love Dave's clarity, keeping it simple and humble. Really enjoyed it! Please bring him back often!
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    19 November 2020 @ 04:35
    this is christian bales cousin or something?
  • MM
    Michael M.
    19 November 2020 @ 01:29
    What a great conversation!!
  • DM
    Don M.
    18 November 2020 @ 22:47
    Good interview. RV would be well served to bring JC Parets on. He does a great job of using charts to make decisions about the macro world.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    18 November 2020 @ 21:12
    One of the best interviews I have seen with Dave. Not a daily briefing per se, but useful stuff for those of us looking at shorter term trends.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    18 November 2020 @ 01:34
    What price is he quoting in what metric? I think he's saying he's bullish bonds, meaning a collapse in yields... wtf is 138 on ten year notes mean? ?
    • JM
      Jason M.
      18 November 2020 @ 01:47
      Nvmd, its probably the mid point between the bid ask spread on whatever 10 year treasury he's looking at. Think ash should of clarified that one.
    • JM
      Jason M.
      18 November 2020 @ 01:48
      Ash, you're my hero, thanks..
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      18 November 2020 @ 02:08
      Hi Jason...I was referring to the flattening of the yield curve (i.e. the 2/10 spread) when that happens it pushes 10-Year Note prices higher and vice versa. The 138 you were referring to was the last price in Notes....138'11 at the time....they are now trading 138'135
    • JM
      Jason M.
      18 November 2020 @ 16:58
      Thank you for taking the time to clarify.
  • KH
    Ken H.
    18 November 2020 @ 15:33
    Dave is one of my favorites! Tesla is the next Apple
  • MB
    Matt B.
    18 November 2020 @ 14:27
    Excellent Daily Briefing - the Dave Floyd segment morphs into something that could stand alone on the psychology of trading. He's right about keeping things simple & sticking to a framework; leave the heavy quant stuff to the specialist shops.
  • DF
    David F.
    18 November 2020 @ 14:19
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-17/renaissance-two-sigma-see-losses-as-quant-giants-navigate-chaos?sref=VPJVRUYw
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    18 November 2020 @ 12:59
    I like the idea that one's edge as a trader is basically how you nuance your thinking relative to others in the market - an interesting take for apprentices like myself. Thank you for indulging several tangential discussions.
  • JL
    James L.
    18 November 2020 @ 10:25
    Can we please get Ash's desk setup so his mic isn't in the camera shot :)
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    18 November 2020 @ 10:00
    Great to hear Dave talking again, especially about trader psych. Please get him back more often!
  • AH
    Attila H.
    18 November 2020 @ 08:15
    Excellent video! thanks
  • FD
    Frank D.
    18 November 2020 @ 08:14
    Please add thumbnails, minimum for the intro and the main segment, so you can easier chose to skip the intro.
  • DG
    David G.
    18 November 2020 @ 07:40
    Nice! thanks Ash for pulling it all out of him. I wish RV and this Interview was around for me 10 years ago. I'm just now understanding trader psychology. This interview was like the cliff notes of Trading in the Zone, Market Wizards, and Brett N. Steenbarger all rolled into one. A real gem for anyone who thinks TA and FA are all that is needed to push pull the trigger and exit when you should in trading. I promise you, you lose enough, your size is too big, or the money means too much to you, you'll be like Maverick after Goose got killed, when your set up shows up, 'It no good, it; no good." "Goddammit Maverick!" Hopefully you get to the, "Maverick is reengaging," and "you can be my wingman anytime part!"
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    17 November 2020 @ 23:15
    I buy and sell used Teslas. Good batteries and computers, not great cars frankly. I can't understand the valuation of the stock, seems wildly overblown. Other manufacturers are getting their EV acts together now. VW ID3 is looking very interesting and there are a lot more coming. Would be ironic if S&P listing was followed by a rapid fall to a realistic valuation. But I know nothing...
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      17 November 2020 @ 23:25
      my comment above was suposed to be response to you.
    • WT
      William T.
      18 November 2020 @ 00:49
      Place your bets
    • CT
      Chris T.
      18 November 2020 @ 07:33
      Rimac will be the end of Tesla.
  • KP
    Khalil P.
    18 November 2020 @ 06:56
    Yo Dave.!!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    18 November 2020 @ 05:26
    Thanks Ash and Dave - brilliant.
  • JL
    John L.
    18 November 2020 @ 04:39
    Have always appreciated guys like Dave, whose humility and focus on "Keeping it Simple" ( KISS but executing with samurai like efficiency ) are indeed the hallmarks of market professionals who last the test of time. IMO, his numerous references to the mental aspect of successful trading and investment should not be underestimated. I do indeed miss listening to former regulars Denise Shull, Peter Brandt and Brett Steenbarger, in the "Mental game of trading" segments.
  • gr
    graunde r.
    18 November 2020 @ 04:31
    Great interview! Can I ask about your annual return if you don't mind?
  • MR
    Michael R.
    18 November 2020 @ 01:58
    Thanks I love the process traders and these type of conversations. Brilliant Dave. Ash, if all interviewers listened as well as you do (so that your questions cut the crap out) I think our world would be a little smarter for it. Thanks!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 November 2020 @ 02:17
      Thanks, Michael. I appreciate it.
  • FH
    Frank H.
    18 November 2020 @ 02:09
    Big fan of RVDB, really enjoy the content. Is it possible to serve a different version of the streaming video to logged-in subscribers that doesn't include the RV subscribe call to action during Hayley segment?
  • MR
    Michael R.
    17 November 2020 @ 23:47
    Trading is challenged by human behavior.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      18 November 2020 @ 02:08
      Amen to that
  • jG
    james G.
    18 November 2020 @ 00:04
    sorry second comment. ... I am a newish trader. I am navigating it all fairly well but not great and that interview was gold for me
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 November 2020 @ 00:13
      Thanks, James. Comments like this are what makes doing these interviews so much fun.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      18 November 2020 @ 02:08
      That's great to hear.....keep plugging along, it takes time
  • BK
    Brian K.
    18 November 2020 @ 01:31
    You got love guy's like David Floyd. They explain things as if they're talking to mom. KISS( Keep it simples stupid) school theory. Makes Real Vision interesting for all viewers.
  • JC
    JOHN C.
    18 November 2020 @ 00:59
    Give it a minute sonny.
  • JC
    JOHN C.
    18 November 2020 @ 00:55
    Are all subscribers forced to watch a video countdown timer or is it just me?
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    18 November 2020 @ 00:28
    Another solid RVDB. Nice to hear from traders with a variety of time horizons.
  • jG
    james G.
    17 November 2020 @ 23:39
    Haley. I keep forcing myself not to ...., but I have to ask... what is the gold disc necklace. is it a Mayan calendar ??? sorry I know it's a distraction but I have to ask --- I love it by the way ..
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    17 November 2020 @ 23:25
    I similar view regarding competition. Tesla is just starting to swim in a pool with other sharks that chase same sardines. I can’t see how Tesla will be able to retain market share and by 2023 I believe Tesla will lose ~30% of its current market.