Daily Briefing – November 4, 2020

Published on
November 4th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – November 4, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: November 4th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

In light of the market rally occurring along with election uncertainty today, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, together pose the question, “just what exactly are the markets celebrating?” They discuss how investors may not have considered the strong probability for an election outcome other than a blue wave - and what the policy implications might be in a split government. Going off of that, Ed and Ash also review the economic data that is rolling out this week, shedding light on how the recovery is slowly breaking down in key indicators of the overall economy. Ed then projects what that data could mean for the labor markets going forward, Q4 GDP numbers, and the monetary policy response. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the data for the ADP report, ISM Services Index, and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Comments

Transcript

  • AK
    Alexander K.
    5 November 2020 @ 21:57
    Fascinating discussion, thanks guys.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    5 November 2020 @ 18:28
    There is a lot of money floating around. People are buying houses like there is a shortage. And it’s often cheaper to sell furniture or give it away then pay to move it, so many are doing this and then buying new. This is why Wayfair, Overstock and others are seeing huge gains over expectations on the top line. People are spending on things rather than going on a vacation. Bottomline, US consumers love to spend and it won’t stop until they FEEL poor (ie the stock market goes really negative).
  • JA
    John A.
    5 November 2020 @ 00:01
    Ash I would inverse that trade lol. I live in North Brooklyn, trust me if you are looking for weed it is not hard to find if you know where to look. Everyone has that one friend who is a stoner who knows a guy. And for the most part, no one gives a damn about it anymore lol. Not to mention, I always found the restaurants and bars better in Brooklyn than Jersey City or Hoboken. I lived close (Weehawken) for 10 years, couldn't wait to move back to NYC.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 November 2020 @ 00:46
      John, Lol. Yep. There’s no shortage in Brooklyn — as I’m always reminded by the pungent aroma when I walk down the street in cobble hill, carol gardens, williamsburg, etc. But I always enjoy visiting friends in JC and HOB. The restaurants are great — and I’m always pleasantly surprised when then check arrives, which doesn’t usually happen in BK.
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      5 November 2020 @ 17:48
      Congratulations to NJ. Although there is no shortage anywhere, the issues of convenience and product variety play a significant role in where one shops. The Canadian model which is organized at the federal level seems much more cohesive where the brick and mortar stores are able to access bank credit for working capital lines the same way every other retail store does. Or you can order online from the Government, and a few days later you get a notice in the mail telling you to pick up your package at the local post office. Dried flower, pre-rolls, seeds, baked goods, chocolates, gummies, oils and capsules, topical creams. Lots of inventory of everything online. Mix and match up to the equivalence of 30 grams (1.05 ounces) of dried flower. Pay CAD6 for delivery. Eat 'em and Smile.
  • RD
    Ray D.
    5 November 2020 @ 16:52
    Is there a good source that covers the real impacts of negative rates? Struggling to wrap my head around the concept.
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    5 November 2020 @ 02:13
    Living through a Fourth Turning. Half glass full or half empty. What's your take?
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      5 November 2020 @ 16:08
      Glass half full of cow dung.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    5 November 2020 @ 09:53
    Ash sounds like Joe Biden "Look, ..." ;-)
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      5 November 2020 @ 14:02
      "Come on, man."
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    5 November 2020 @ 14:01
    Yesterday's market action was not at all baffling, and Ed should know this being in the DC metro: Markets love a divided government. Simple. Don't overthink it, gents.
  • DT
    Douglas T.
    4 November 2020 @ 23:49
    Nobody talking about a senate with no majority (there are 2 independents). A dream come true for anybody who understands that the unnecessary duopoly is a major root cause of our political woes. We need more independents!
    • LF
      Liam F.
      5 November 2020 @ 00:01
      We need more VIABLE political parties. The duopoly is the two-headed ENEMY of the American people.
    • BS
      Brian S.
      5 November 2020 @ 05:59
      Ha, with a political system that was invented to eliminate a ruling despot this election may prove to be the most confounding if not one of the most debilitating. Biden or Trump are not the men to rebuild a nation, they are meant to draw all the lines. Let’s hope a nation builder rises from the ashes in time for the next election. Amen!
    • JL
      Jake L.
      5 November 2020 @ 10:24
      I think the whole system needs rethinking. Every politician as an individual representative may help.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    5 November 2020 @ 07:05
    He
  • JI
    JWD I.
    5 November 2020 @ 02:55
    Incredible RVDB!!! Proud to be apart of this community!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      5 November 2020 @ 05:37
      Thanks, man. Much appreciated.
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    5 November 2020 @ 05:31
    Always enjoy the discussion between Ash and Ed. Thanks!!
  • SL
    Suzanne L.
    5 November 2020 @ 03:16
    Ash: nobody wears Icebreaker better.
    • SL
      Suzanne L.
      5 November 2020 @ 03:16
      Ooops, I meant Ed. It's been a loooong day.
  • AB
    Allex B.
    5 November 2020 @ 02:27
    Markets want to go up regardless of anything.. Bad time to be a Bear!!!
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    5 November 2020 @ 00:07
    Sentiment Trader reported that the S&P 500 closed up more than 2%. On the NYSE, there was more volume in declining securities than advancing ones. That's never happened before. Sounds fragile to me.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      5 November 2020 @ 02:23
      Also didn't think the NYSE Advances vs Declines was that impressive for such a pop in the market.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:59
    I'm old enough to remember when the US could conduct an election in a timely and responsible manner. I was a precinct official for many years. There were no voting machines, no electronic ballot scanners and no mystery boxes of ballots magically discovered in the attic. Ballots were turned in at the precinct and human beings counted every one by hand. It wasn't rocket science. Technology should have made this easier, but now it's far worse. Regardless of who wins, they will preside over what has become an insolvent and incompetent train wreck. When Ben Hunt says BITFD, I have to agree.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:46
    The ECB issuance in the US is a very different scenario. I don't fully understand it yet, being a bit new to this, but there is no way to ignore knock on effects from the TSY...
    • TC
      Timothy C.
      5 November 2020 @ 01:50
      So I exited my TSY short Monday, but I'm still jury out.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:43
    Well, if anyone has an issue with aristocracy as over and against a technocracy or mob rule, look at the sell off of the gun manufacturers today on the news of the Senate staying Red. Glad to live in a republic, with all of its imperfections.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:27
    Now that you guys are on the electoral college track, a little history on the point where it went off the rails. I agree with Ed's comments in terms of intent, including fear of the angry mob (he didn't say, but it's implied), but the seeds of the angry mob were sown and have festered since 1929. I personally don't have a solution (other than using math - which would be massively unpopular), but 1929 started a turning point that resulted in a polarization on a plurality of fronts... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reapportionment_Act_of_1929
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:15
    So still no one is talking about OTR vs OFR shifts. I have a hard time believing it had no play on the short situation and what will lead to an unwind. I'm steering clear, but trying to understand what's happening...
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    5 November 2020 @ 01:14
    After following the election closely on the news networks for the past 2 days, it was refreshing to tune in here to hear clear and rational conversation. Great work fellas.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    5 November 2020 @ 00:07
    The Senate "BECOME" a Republican Senate? Eddie, it has been Republican.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      5 November 2020 @ 00:34
      I can guarantee you that Ed knows that 😎
  • CV
    Collin V.
    5 November 2020 @ 00:27
    My favorite show for the day. Thanks Ash and Ed.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    5 November 2020 @ 00:08
    Brilliant intro, Peter. A lot of critically important aspects for the day. Fact dense and placed into context. Very well done.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    4 November 2020 @ 23:45
    Thanks for the brief team.