Comments
Transcript
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BBOne question what happens to Bitcoin when we have that insolvency event that Raoul Pal says is coming. From what I understand in an insolvency event all risk assets get hit. Is Bitcoin going to hold up as a safe haven?
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JH"Maximum uncertainty"? Don't think we've seen that yet. One can day/swing trade these markets, but i think long term investing is imprudent at this stage. As for a vaccine, that's a pipe dream. No one's ever been able to develop a covid vaccine. Too many mutations. I would not invest on wishful thinking.
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MDInteresting idea about America becoming a bit ordinary, and the Americas forming a bloc. One small point that oddly is not talked about much - what if Trump wins? The intel I have read would make me concerned about the voting, and I say that as a non-American. Politics aside, you would think both sides would want a result that is legit.
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DCGreat insight guys. Love the overall structure as an investment strategy long term.
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APEnjoyed Jay’s view, great conversation Ed!
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ASwow, after watching this I thought I'd been asleep for 9 months and I'd just woken up. Did I really imagine RV saying day after day for months on end that we are in for a major correction, millions laid off from jobs they will never go back to? Raoul talking about hope phase going into insolvency? Incessant printing of money leading to loss of value loss of faith in the $b etc. What does everyone think - is this guy an outlier or do you share his unbridled optimism?
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WMI just disagree with at least 50% of what Jay said, but he is a welcome positive side for RVT. Good stuff.
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RMI don't see Europe being big competition, too big a social safety net and regulation.
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RMJay's view that we will put the Caronavirus behind us in 2021 leading to massive worldwide growth is certainly possible but I don't see the virology experts supporting that. If we get a vaccine, it would be in record time and not likely to be very effective. 50% would be very good. Listen to the Oterholm Update at University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-30. Therapeutic trials from Regenron, Lilly, Astrazenica so far have been uniformly disappointing. And the medical community does not think much of remdesivir. The only promising therapeutic that continually reports positive results is leronlimab which is in a phase 3 severe/critical placebo controlled trial that got an encouraging go ahead from its Data Safety Monitoring Committee (which stopped the other companies' trials). But it is not clear that even when that drug is approved (lots of strong efficacy and safety data) that it will be effective enough to end the need for social distancing. It might be. Just not clear yet. So, the Caronavirus is likely to be with us through the end of 2021 at least and it will continue to make much of the economies business models untenable resulting in lots of bankruptcies and poor economic performance while the economy readjusts to the new reality.
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DMGreat discussion—thank you, gentlemen.
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DAI hope to see Jay Polosky on Real Vision again. He presented thought provoking arguments clearly and supported them with evidence. The good sort of opinionated guest.
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KDAlways enjoy Jay....great interview
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RYUpbeat ... great interview.
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jGHis words about near on-shoring industrial production rang a bell with me. I have been bending my friends ears for the last few months telling them that jobs will not come back to the USA. If they come here the manufacturers will prefer robots. --- But Latin America is a different story. I absolutely do not want it raped and abused by American Imperialistic Industrialism, as has been the case in the past but there is a great opportunity to bring prosperity to Central America and to cut the supply chain line to just a truck drive up the Pan American Highway . The caravans of migrants moving north come for a better life. We can absolutely provide that better life right there in their country of origin and everyone will benefit . I realize that this comment sounds a little naive in thinking this is an easy thing. I fully understand how incredibly complex it is but it is an idea worth pursuing
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JMJay, you really believe Europe is going to be leading tech in this coming decade? I'll happily take the other side of this bet.
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CBInsightful discussion. Negative news sells headlines, but the world is realizing finally that life treads on regardless. As a foreigner looking in at US election shenanigans, will be nice to have an adult in the White House and not a petulant child.
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HTVery much enjoy hearing from Jay, I listen to all his episodes. He has a broad perspective and his relentless optimism is a good counter to my own apprehension about what is going on. Living in Europe, it is always surprising to me that US investors assume Europe will be just like the US at some point, once we get over pesky things like national boundaries and different languages etc. My take is it will not happen in my lifetime...for which I am very grateful.
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PBAppreciate the bullish outlook. I think it's too early. Maybe Q4 2021. Let's see how bad the real estate bankruptcy problem turns out to be. And how bad COVID is this winter. Give it some more time to see what permanent changes people make in their preferences. Yeah, JETS will be fly again. Good speculative bet for a 18-36 month horizon. Could see how in some euphoria of first distribution of a successful vaccine it goes up 40% in just a couple of sessions. Probably some airline bankruptcies beforehand. Too early.
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SMI wonder how much of the optimism of a vaccine is correlated to the 80 / 20 bull-bear of stock performance. Meaning that because the markets go up 80 % and go sideways or down 20% Ed, WTF mutation nonsense. Please explain.
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TRI think how much China and Russia can affect CPI an in turn force inflation isn't discussed enough in New Zealand for example: recreational goods (which the vast majority come from China) have the same percentage of CPI weighting as rent does. Food prices are based on international demand from China Gas is around 6% of CPI a 33% increase in gas prices = 2% inflation target.
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JAThis guy believed in the blue wave, pretty much all I need to know about his viewpoint lol. But, this was better than his last interview. I appreciate hearing his viewpoint even if I think he is dead wrong. I am just not built for momentum trading.
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GWExcellent interview that provided a different view then others.
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KPI was into the rosy picture because I’m desperate to get back to normalcy but then he said he is bullish European banks....
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CSReally, really, really bummed out that the Atwater interview is above the next paywall.
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ISNot as bullish no way. But some really interesting points. Vaccine kryptonite and on-shoring industrial production particularly useful insights. Dont agree that Europe will be the next tech hub. Would be interesting to hear Jay expand on that.
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JNeverytime you've had this guy on theres been a crash the next day followed by a bull run
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CMGreat guest. Very interesting. Enjoy how Jay applies broad concepts to ongoing markets and is not a tape watcher.
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MCTo the RV bloggers: Thank you for saving 44 minutes of my life...lol. I will spend it trying to find out how 50 states simultaneously corrupted the Presidential election process...;)
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SPWoW, this guy is great!!!
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MSI just heard Trump speak. This is not ending this month.