Daily Briefing – October 13, 2020

Published on
October 13th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 13, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: October 13th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of big moves today in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Greer analyzes the latest CPI reading through the lens of the ECB’s piggy-back announcement that it too would let inflation run hot. Greer then breaks down today’s bond rally as the dollar retracement coincided with significant sector rotations in the S&P 500. Bennington and Greer then analyze the latest newsflow from Washington D.C, including the status of President Trump’s health, the progress of stimulus talks in Congress, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about the latest earnings reports from U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.

Comments

Transcript

  • TC
    Thomas C.
    15 October 2020 @ 21:26
    Good questions Jack great job
  • MT
    Mark T.
    14 October 2020 @ 19:25
    There is no doubt at all that Biden will win the popular vote.
    • BB
      Benjamin B.
      15 October 2020 @ 15:37
      Promising free handouts to people is a good way to buy votes. 'Free' school, 'free' health care and wind and solar will power your hopes and dreams.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:34
    It would be better to keep political commentary out of RV except as it actually relates impacts on Macro/Micro conditions. The comments made by TG about the WHO are factually incorrect and that doesn't help me understand his position, unless he is saying a preponderance of people believe the fallacy... Let's get to substantive stuff. For example, if Biden wins, the GOP will suddenly become deficit hawks and we get no stimulus until Jan 20. Now that is important... Talk about that :-) Other than that I enjoy listening to TG.
    • DF
      David F.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:08
      Agree 100% that stimulus from a divided gov’t will look meaningfully different then stimulus from a unified gov’t.... What are the trade scenarios given the possible outcomes? And what are the risks/trades if the elections (presidential & Senate seats) are contested over an extended period?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 12:00
      fair points and thank you Timothy.
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:20
      I didnt realize we had CCP/WHO trolls in RV but apparently we do. Anyone can see the WHO have been simply abysmal and in the pocket of the CCP for awhile now. This latest flip flop just another example. Check out Chris Balding's RV work if you need a refresher
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:06
    You're assuming fellas that the polling outfits just shrugged their shoulders last time and did nothing to improve their systems and processes in the last 4 years. Is that what you would have done? I think the Economist is on the money or is close. There are no big Biden rallies it's true but hatred for Trump runs wide and deep and with good reason. The Dems could put up their Donkey and win this one. Of course I could be wrong and if I am then I will have to say you're a bloody weird crew over there...
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:17
      Ecommunist has been wrong on just about everything and are a contra indicator par excellance
  • JV
    John V.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:22
    I am not a fan of Tony. In the future, I will just skip Tuesdays' video going forward. He just states narratives (Hedgeye would call him a "Macro Tourist") without providing much fundamental or a balanced analysis. By the way, the most popular narrative about why the market was up recently was because Wall Street sees a "Blue Wave" coming as Biden has widened his lead in the polls. It is viewed that the Democrats would provide a much bigger stimulus than the Republicans and that would be good for equities. If Real Vision wants to interview someone that is permanently bullish, hopefully they can find someone who provides more data and objective analysis that will support their view.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:30
      Have to agree with this post. Would prefer to get more a technical view of the market on Tuesdays versus the general narrative from Tony.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      14 October 2020 @ 01:13
      Agree, I watch Tuesdays only for Jack. (Comment above).
    • JA
      John A.
      14 October 2020 @ 01:20
      I don't agree with Tony, but it is useful to have someone who actually takes the other side of my trades tell me why he likes what he sees. This contrarian viewpoint is important because it helps me to understand where I might better express my own view and where I might be tilting at windmills simply because guys like Tony are going to outnumber guys like me. Think of it like an opposition general providing his own gameplan.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:58
      ask me if I give a shit what "Hedgeye" would call me - I was trading gold in Zurich when he was learning to skate. Again - we need more people like you for the other side of our trades.
    • DM
      Don M.
      14 October 2020 @ 17:35
      Tony got a little pissy in his response. This is the twitter Tony and the newsletter Tony. Look, I could care less about anyone's politics, unless it impacts their opinion on the markets (espec when I'm paying). A technician is supposed to let the numbers talk. Not decide they're doing something because of a political view or not because of a different one. That's my problem. Also, why not a single chart or example to back up the 'story'?
    • dw
      douglas w.
      14 October 2020 @ 17:51
      I haven't disagreed with someone more consistently than Tony on pretty much everything. Having said this, I do enjoy his viewpoints and agree if you're just listening to your own echochamber to legitimize your views/trades, you are doing a disservice to your practice. I think that Tony's views are more powerfully expressed when there is a swingtrade macro element, which usually coincides with his bigger picture ideas which doesn't happen every Tuesday. I have enjoyed some of his earlier works when he has interviewed his colleagues and commodity based traders that have influenced him. Some of them were famous, others not, but to get industry perspectives and stories from old school traders is always enjoyable and brings value to RV.
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:15
      Tony knows the Blue Wave narrative and offers a counterpoint. The mainstream media including the financial media are 90% in the bag for the democrats so take whatever they say with a grain of salt. Wall Street simply trying to have a story for both sides so whoever wins they can spin it as positive.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:28
    No inflation yet? Shocker..
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:12
      Seriously. Yet the financial media keep pricing it in
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:57
    I am buying most of what Tony is saying, but he implied if Trump wins through voter suppression and a favorable Supreme Court decision, I don’t see how that could be good for markets. Seems like a lot of variables are being held constant.
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:12
      We have seen months of violent protests openly supoorted by the Dems who are also withholding stimulus so as to hurt Trump's chances for reelection. They have kept cities shut down for months to also hurt said election chances, destroying small and medium sized businesses in the process. Media and big tech literally banning conaervatives from their platforms and creating constant false narratives where Orange Man has supposedly done everything wrong, all the while vehemently defending Biden at every turn - this NY Post email ban on the Hunter Biden Ukraine emails the latest example. Trump was a shoe-in pre-Covid. Now tell me who is rigging elections and interfering in elections? Its not Trump
  • pk
    philip k.
    14 October 2020 @ 02:16
    Go and watch “ totally under control” you just convinced me that you all don’t give a damn how we do an a country and the other leg of the K. As long as you can make a buck.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:56
      this entire endeavor - REAL VISION - was built to help educate people about the world of finance. Unfortunately for you - markets go up and down because of buyers, sellers, and no price fixing. Some win - some lose. I appreciate you volunteering to be on the losing side - we need more people like you.
    • AG
      Adrian G.
      14 October 2020 @ 22:24
      I don't know about you but I trade to make money. I like how Tony doesn't let politics affect his trading. At the end of the day only price pays.
    • JC
      John C.
      15 October 2020 @ 12:04
      Lot of haters and mainstrem media progressive types filling up the comments with vitriole, globalist propaganda & party lines these days. If I wanted that I could watch CNN or CNBC for that matter. I guess opening up RV to $1 subscriptions has its downside
  • CM
    Cory M.
    14 October 2020 @ 01:11
    Score today: Jack 33.8 billion Tony 0.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:56
      Do explain!
    • CM
      Cory M.
      14 October 2020 @ 19:48
      Tony, I like you and how well you communicate, but I do not care for what you offer to the platform. Macro investing can't be about the tape, it has to be about, well, macro.
  • DS
    David S.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:36
    The World Health Organization - WHO - in discussing the economic harm to poor people resulting from lockdowns is not saying that the number of cases of COVID will not continue to rise. The US had over 66,000 new cases today and the total for the world was over 400,000. Even if everyone could get the best health care like President Trump, we have several years to deal with the pandemic and economic effects. We must open parts of the economy or we will all be poor. This means many more will contract and spread COVID. There are no easy solutions. Without the US government giving away tons of printed dollars the economy would have tanked. The government will print trillions more dollars regardless of who is elected. As in the past, the Republicans will try to save the wealthy while the Democrats will try to save the poor. Both are trying to gain power from their electoral base. If you are as good a trader in the market everyday like Mr. Greer, you should be able to weather the storm. If not, think about it. DLS
    • RM
      Robert M.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:31
      Cases in US are up 19% over last 14 days.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 12:00
      well played comment and also - thank you.
    • DM
      Don M.
      14 October 2020 @ 17:40
      I don't disagree with David. But simply saying "open up" doesn't solve Covid or the economy, much to the chagrin of some. Look at Sweden. They never shut down yet their GDP contracted more than Denmark or Finland who has widespread shut downs. In other words, it's not the Democratic Governors's fault as Mr. Greer laments on twitter over and over and over. It's the virus. Blaming the shutdowns is lazy.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:27
    Hey Ash.Love the fact you spent the extra time with Jack to go over the Banks.So important!!.Carry on !
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      14 October 2020 @ 00:37
      Thanks, Mike. Jack dug in deep today.
    • DM
      Don M.
      14 October 2020 @ 17:31
      Best part of the show by far
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    14 October 2020 @ 17:10
    TG thinks that Trumovwill legalize weed on re-election? lol..
  • LK
    L K.
    14 October 2020 @ 16:15
    I always enjoy TG's perspective, especially when it disagrees with mine. It's interesting to hear interpretation of the election signals from the S&P and polls but not prediction contracts; is there any reason this data point has been ignored?
  • AB
    Ash B. | Real Vision
    14 October 2020 @ 00:07
    Great charts, Jack!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      14 October 2020 @ 15:26
      Thank you, Ash! Great speaking with you as always.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    14 October 2020 @ 08:19
    Jack, Ash and Tony, this was great again! Thanks!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      14 October 2020 @ 15:26
      Thank you, Pieter!
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    14 October 2020 @ 15:05
    The TG Tuesday Daily Briefing is superb - the chemistry between Ash and Tony works so well. Excellent.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    14 October 2020 @ 13:51
    I find all the negative commentary absurd. If you don't like Tony or his views, why bother watching him unless you have all the time in the world? There is so much content (almost all valuable) on RV these days we are spoilt for choice and I personally could not hope to watch it all so I certainly would not torture myself watching someone I did not like or agree with time and again. Personally I love Tony (as well as Ash and the other RV hosts) and his views which is why I never miss his slot.
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    14 October 2020 @ 13:45
    Please send this to Tony: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IueQq34rgZI
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    14 October 2020 @ 13:31
    Agree or disagree, the function of RV content is to expose each to insights you wouldn’t/haven’t received from your previous source(s). I would wager that few who watch this site have the day-to-day trading experience or market awareness of TG. And those that do (whether they agree or disagree) have no issue with his interpretations of the tape. If you’re making over 1000 trades a year, all ideas are welcomed.
  • DB
    Douglas B.
    14 October 2020 @ 13:06
    Thanks, TG!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:07
    thanks guys. Tony, love your honesty.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 12:01
      Thank you Nikola.
  • AD
    Adam D.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:48
    Loved Tony going through how he manages positions and risk/ reward. 101. Best daily briefing I've heard for matching up events with theory with practice. Many thanks, Adam
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:59
      we appreciate you Adam.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:19
    Gentleman, fine job 'tip toeing' the political mine field in your analysis. Many will be triggered, but you both discussed the topic professionally.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:59
      We are trying to hard - thanks Jon.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    14 October 2020 @ 01:13
    Tony: Any thoughts about CCJ / Cameco, if you're following it?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:56
      Truly am not.
  • BF
    Bill F.
    14 October 2020 @ 01:25
    Ash... I miss the dramatic openings from the past "This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing"! I would be shaken to my core hanging on every word of the DB to get the morsel of info I needed to finally crack the market secret. Now, with your new toned down intro, I have a little less energy going into the DB and feel I might be missing something. On a serious note, I still believe RVDB is the best 30 minutes in market news and information. Strong leaders of the program and stimulating guests. I appreciate the work that you, Ed and the team put in to make this daily work. I love the guests like Tony and Roger... always great content and insight! Keep up the good work!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      14 October 2020 @ 02:02
      Thanks, Bill. I’lol work on punching it up to 11...
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:56
      we appreciate YOU, Bill.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    14 October 2020 @ 05:20
    Love T.G., calling balls and strikes dispassionately. Love the the end focusing on stop loss strategy. This is what moves the needle thanks!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:54
      I appreciate you Michael - that's a GREAT metaphor for what I'm SINCERELY trying to accomplish here. Every week.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    14 October 2020 @ 06:53
    Great Hair Tony!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:53
      since birth. Thanks for noticing Sam.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    14 October 2020 @ 07:59
    The commentary Tony Greer provides is excellent, many thanks. And thanks to Ash as well!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      14 October 2020 @ 11:53
      I appreciate you Shakeel - GREATLY.
  • GH
    Guy H.
    14 October 2020 @ 10:00
    This is good TG, as opposed to political TG. I get the momentum bull thing but really struggle to mesh it into what looks like a dire fundamental outlook. Play to the tape is probably best advice.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    14 October 2020 @ 07:33
    seems like some of the commentators don't like hearing the opposite side narrative. People don't seem to recognise the value in this and how much it will improve your investing/trading
  • Mo
    Master o.
    14 October 2020 @ 05:23
    How about bringing ALEX BARROW from Macro-Ops once a week. He's a brilliant chartist and could add a different perspective on the daily briefings.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    14 October 2020 @ 04:34
    We are truly spoiled for bread and circuses this year. Thanks guys
  • JA
    John A.
    14 October 2020 @ 01:48
    Regarding FAANG, the price action doesn't tell the full story. When VXN and QQQ go up at the same time, that tells me we are getting pretty long in the tooth here. The wrong article comes over the news wire and spooks the speculators and all of a sudden all of the bulls become bagholders. Till then, Tony's view drives the market.
    • JA
      John A.
      14 October 2020 @ 02:01
      One more thing re: "Could the Fed stop inflating assets" point that Tony made. The Fed balance sheet peaked in June. They have hardly bought corporate junk debt for the past 2 months - apparently, someone read the Federal Reserve act to them and they are being conservative here. They are begging for Congress to step in with aid. I think the Fed is done till something else blows up.
    • AG
      Adrian G.
      14 October 2020 @ 03:49
      On top of that gamma exposure (GEX from squeeze metrics) is super high right now. With OpEx Friday and QQQ max pain well below where we're at right now I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback before continuing higher. AAPL dumping with iPhone event today in a classic sell the news doesn't seem overly bullish to me. I think we might see something similar from AMZN vis-a-vis Prime Day hype. (I agree with TG on a longer timescale I'm just thinking about how to trade the rest of the week.)
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    14 October 2020 @ 01:45
    what is the soft-spoken speech at Davos you referenced?
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      14 October 2020 @ 02:56
      Jay Powell. They referred to his speech a few minutes earlier in the conversation.
  • JN
    Jerrick N.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:25
    I disagree with about half of what you say TG. One of these tuesdays you will be announcing to all of us that tech is getting slaughtered and we are in deflation
    • YB
      Yair B.
      14 October 2020 @ 01:43
      Well yeah. He definitely might. Because he is a trader. And a really great one at that. He has a macro view, but he looks at charts and makes decisions. If things change, he will change his opinions and his premises.
  • BE
    Brandon E.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:38
    Guys, which was the Mike Green video that TG spoke about in this Daily Briefing? I'll put it in the watch list. Thanks!
    • YB
      Yair B.
      14 October 2020 @ 01:41
      I think it is this one. It is really a great interview! THE PERILS OF PASSIVE INDEXATION https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/the-perils-of-passive-indexation
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:27
    no need to apologize for a deep dive into banks eps. That's the real value, having a meaningful look behind the headlines. Thx, Ash.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:33
      Also liked bank coverage as well. Lots of debate whether banks are a buy or a bear trap. JPM's comments are highly relevant and will have us watching for a second dip in the economy or a V recovery.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:26
    Tony's opinion about why market is rallying (Trump recovery from Covid, Trump re-election) goes against the Fintwit feed on Twitter where everyone is saying it is because of the impeding Blue Wave leading to more stimulus and reduced uncertainty over results. Headline from Financial Times today: "US investors pivot to ‘blue wave’ as odds favour Biden" where certain stocks are rallying based on a possible Biden win. Also agree with a poster below that polling companies have probably worked on their processes since 2016.
  • FA
    Frank A.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:08
    I feel like the inflation trade in commodities began to stall as soon as Powell came out and said he was willing to let inflation ‘run hot’..? Just me?
    • DS
      David S.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:18
      The Fed is having problems keeping inflation above the zero bound. Maybe they are not in control. DLS
  • JD
    James D.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:22
    Great information! Thank you all. The banking information was good..Diamond previously over reserved to make Q2 numbers look better. Tony has his finger on the pulse and like every good trader, his first loss is the best loss..
    • DS
      David S.
      14 October 2020 @ 00:15
      Dimon said future bank reserves will be much higher without a major stimulus. DLS
  • dw
    douglas w.
    14 October 2020 @ 00:15
    I know that TG is a solid dude and an intelligent trader. But I feel his market commentary has added less value with his recent Tuesday weeklies. By presenting him on a first Tuesday of each month the scope and depth of his trades may resonate a bit more.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:58
    Sounds like a good hedge is to use the odds from the betting agencies (who might rely on the pollsters?). Odds probably as good as the convexity of options. Always enjoy the TGT RVDB - thanks Ash and Tony.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    13 October 2020 @ 23:22
    Brexit deadline is 15 October so watch Pound falling as a possible reason for Dollar gaining. Reasons for Dollar move may be outside US