Henrik, the Swedish situation is more nuanced than you are presenting it. There are two distinct periods in Sweden, the first when they did not lock down and the go forward, more socially distanced period. In the first, which is where most people concentrate, Sweden's approach failed, especially in eldercare facilities whereas the Danes, Norwegians and Finns did well. The Swedish approach was an unmitigated disaster. But, in the go forward approach, the Swedes have done well. Danish economist Lars Christensen pointed this out this morning in comparing Czech and Sweden https://marketmonetarist.com/2020/10/17/the-czechs-and-the-swedes-the-tale-of-two-covid-strategies/ The Swedes actually tightened up on mandatory socially distancing rules after April, making them more compatible with other nordics. See here, for example https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/sweden-had-resisted-mandatory-social-distancing-measures-that-changed-on-wednesday/ar-BB125I21 And the same is true regarding travel restrictions beginning in June https://www.government.se/articles/2020/06/social-distancing-and-markedly-reduced-travel-in-sweden/ The result has been a decline in infection rates. See here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-07/swedish-covid-infections-drop-after-steady-distancing-patterns making their go-forward approach sustainable. As the second wave takes hold in Europe, it has yet to catch Sweden out, even though the move indoors there preceded the move indoors elsewhere. So, at this point, I believe there is a strong possibility that infection rates and death levels in Sweden will be lower than elsewhere in Europe. My concern is that the vaccines will not be as effective as needed and/or may take a long time to administer at scale. Moreover, there is limited evidence that re-infection is occurring because of virus mutation. See here in Swedish https://t.co/q4Zi15Jla9 As a result, you need a sustainable long-term mitigation approach that takes you through at least one more complete calendar year if not further. And we just don't have that in most places across Europe and North America. If we had a tradition of mask-wearing, the protocols in Japan or Singapore or Thailand would be the ones to emulate. But, I think there is too much resistance to that in the West for it to be as effective even though I wear a mask and socially distance assiduously. I think the Swedes, with enhanced mandated social distancing rules and ad hoc travel restrictions are doing it better than most and that's one reason their infection and death rates have yet to spike again. I realize that is not the prevailing view. But all approaches will be battle-tested in the coming coronavirus wave which looks set to be very deadly. So we will find out.

One more thing. I am on record as having predicted lockdowns would occur and supporting them as necessary. In April, I went through the logic on Credit Writedowns for my subscribers https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/p/how-do-we-achieve-minimal-economic In that same April post, I also predicted we would see a large summer 're-opening wave' and a subsequent Fall/Winter wave. And we have done. I wish it weren't so. But, in my view, these outcomes were entirely foreseeable and have much to do with known resistance to adequate mask wearing and predictable riskier behavior in youth populations. So, I think you and I are mostly on the same page about Sweden's initial failure and about what needs to be done now. The question from a policy perspective is what is likely to be successful. And for that, you need compliance, which limits the range of responses. We have to be realistic about that or you get massive waves of contagion, as we now see.

I have to agree with Henrik here. There simply is no case for praising Sweden's approach. I think Germany has done very well taking into account the circumstances, while the only good examples to look up to are Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Lauri, I wore a while Twitter thread on how poorly it went with Sweden early on back in April https://twitter.com/edwardnh/status/1246078881985171457?s=21 It’s not the same now

Ed, many thanks for taking the time to respond; I appreciate it. In the RVDB you said that Sweden "has done really well since April". This is just not correct. As the data shows since June they have done even worse compared with Norway and Denmark. It was not until July and August that Sweden saw a big improvement and as anyone who has ever been to Sweden in the summer will know this is because Sweden basically shuts down every July anyway as people go on holiday and spend time in their summer houses and cottages in the middle of nowhere i.e. a self imposed lock down! This summer most other European countries restricted travel to/from Sweden so there was much less international travel by Swedes than say Denmark or Norway which ironically further helped them as fewer people brought the virus back from holiday. As the article I linked points out there is no evidence of herd immunity in Sweden and since September their case numbers have picked up again like everywhere else. In October to date the case rates and death rates per pop are the same for Sweden and Denmark and c. 2x that of Norway. So again there is no data to support the claim that Sweden is now doing measurably better than their neighbours. You are rightly focused on the more sustainable approach given the potential for vaccines to be delayed, ineffective etc.. However at this moment there is really not much different between Sweden's approach and that in the other Northern European countries apart from maybe Sweden's reluctance to implement face coverings. Schools, restaurants etc. are also open in these comparable countries. So it seems very odd to me to pursue a narrative that praises the "Swedish Approach". Why not praise Norway and Denmark for their approach as they took tough action when it was needed and then eased restrictions back off when that was suitable. Seems a better sustainable approach to me.

I'm from the Netherlands and Sweden has about the same death rate per capita (based on excess mortality) as the Netherlands. Which is about the same as our flu season from 2018. ~6000 deaths are horrible but not outside the range of a flu season (and the same goes for age). Definitely not enough for a lockdown but the idea is that without lockdowns those numbers would rise. Currently, their deaths are <10 a day so Sweden did and is doing well. Cases are rising though. I wouldn't discredit them solely on that point though.

We are hearing a lot about falling excess mortality rates in the northern hemisphere. Those generally coincided with the end of summer. I will be surprised if they do not tick back up again soon, particularly in the United States and parts of Canada. However, this is one area where I hope I am proven completely wrong.

Of course, it sounds bad if you put it like that but here's my previous post to put that in perspective: ''I'm from the Netherlands and Sweden has about the same death rate per capita (based on excess mortality) as the Netherlands. Which is about the same as our flu season from 2018. ~6000 deaths are horrible but not outside the range of a flu season (and the same goes for age). Definitely not enough for a lockdown, but the idea is that without lockdowns those numbers would rise.'' It's not a higher price than usual. The response in other countries is the thing that's not usual...

On the website, there is a slider now with Editor's picks. It's not on the mobile app. But I am working with the product people to implement changes that our subscribers are requesting. Hang tight because more is to come.

Too 'western' centric. In Raoul's reading list, he mentions a fabulous book by Peter Frankopan ‘The Silk Roads’ that (though he doesn’t mention its sequel, ‘The New Silk Roads’) which ought to be essential reading for the entire RV team. Frankopan’s historic ‘lens’ provides a neat framework for the Kyle Bass interviews on ‘China’, IMHO. Have a great weekend!

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Thanks

That’s what I was thinking too.

Alternatively, Sweden may already have herd immunity, and winter will prove to be no problem for them; completely vindicating their strategy as the sane path to have taken...

"Herd immunity" is a term applied to a vaccinated population. it is still not known if there is any immunity conferred by experiencing the illness.

Thanks "The-First-James", I now stand corrected. Ed, my apologies.

Lol, just a little Friday humor folks. I'm the "other" Jon S. who hijacked Jon's comment. Carry on:)

Anne: would you agree that if immunity is not conferred by experiencing the illness, it means there's no possibility of a (permanent) vaccination? (I'm not an expert at all in this realm. But logically, one would seem to suggest the other.)

Anne, I will pass your comments on to product about fixing that. Cheers, Ed