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Nobody talks about the relative success of most African countries in containing the virus to date. Overall, I think it is too early to debate who successfully managed the virus. We are still in the midst of the pandemic and it will also tale awhile to judge secondary and tertiary effects of different strategies. Time will tell.

Sweden.. come on guys. Why would you compare Swedens covid deaths vs other countries rather than using a logical like for like of comparing vs previous years. You will find that they have "performed" in line with prior years and 2020 does not stand out in the past 20 years as a year of notable amount of deaths. Common sense data analysis seems to have gone completely out of the window with covid.

Much fewer obese people in Asia vs America.

I came across a great piece of analysis on the virus in John Hempton's September Bronte newsletter. Explains the Sweden vs China vs Australia vs US outcomes unlike anything else I read. Would be worth checking it out, Ed. P.S. also might be great to have him come for an interview and talk about his thoughts on everything from algae manufacturers to his covid response model

The Monday Ash & Ed Show never disappoints.

Rolling my eyes on Cases...DEATHS are all that matter. I know plenty of infected cases. Thankfully all recovered. Deaths are so tiny as to be comparable to the flu if under the age of 70. Mutations of Coronaviruses become LESS virulent over time. Their called “common colds”. Dig deeper boys.

Ash/Ed I highly encourage to interview someone on the ground in New Zealand about our COVID-19 response. I keep seeing the commentary point to New Zealand being an island and that made it easy to reduce the risk of COVID-19. While this has contributed to lowering the ongoing risk, the key thing to note is that we like many other countries had cases of community transmission. It was our response to go into lockdown early and providing appropriate messaging to the public that made sure that we eliminated the initial wave of COVID-19 as well as learning from this to reduce the impact of the second wave of COVID-19.

I do not completely trust what China reports for GDP. Is there some independent 3rd party that verifies the numbers? I don't believe so since the CCP controls everything that comes out of China. China has had an extremely difficult year - including massive floods and drought. I can't imagine how that wouldn't have an impact. In addition, since the rest of the world is still struggling with COVID, wouldn't that impact the ability to get the raw materials and inputs required to have such an impressive GDP?

Sweden is definitely the country the western world should be following. The pandemic is over there - virtually zero deaths since May. This emphasis on case numbers is the big problem. Only a very small % of the population will die from the disease. The sooner we wake up to this the better

I'm glad you liked the t-shirt - there should be one for Ash too and it was originally ordered from Singapore....

Not only is the mutation rate substantial (although lower than many other RNA viruses), but it's important to keep in mind that CoVs recombine. If we get a recombinant with SARS2 and another CoV, we could be really screwed.

Great work. When comparing the success or not of Covid policies, we should be careful to define the objective. IMHO it should not just be how quickly deaths are brought under control, or how well the sick are helped, but maintaining LIBERTY should also be considered. Consider for a moment smoking and alcohol usage. We know that both of these are unhealthy and can lead to premature death. BUT our politicians do not ban these. This is because they respect our liberty. Similarly, when you lock someone in their bedroom for months with a laptop, you destroy a person's liberty. On top of that you exacerbate other problems such as domestic abuse, child abuse, narcotics abuse, depression, anxiety, suicide, etc. And you also destroy the pleasure that person receives out of life. You are also often destroying livelihoods, especially for small business owners. Picture for a moment those people who are living in tiny studio flats, or large flat shares. Our politicians have made life pure hell for these people. My point is that even if a State was able to bring down Covid cases rapidly, if they have done at the barrel of a gun, then to me that is still a failure. IMHO people should be encouraged to be safe and sensible with Covid, wear masks where possible, stay well rested and use track and trace. But these should be common sense and by the choice of the individual. Some of the draconian responses by governments have been unforgivable. Just as it is my choice whether I smoke a cigarette or not, it is also my choice as to who I have into my own home, and for how long. I wouldn't want to live in Maoist China for all the Covid immunity in the world!

Trading Places!

Not sure I believe Ed's China argument. China has had this virus since late November 2019 and it speread throughout the country. They locked people in their homes to die early on and suppressed any information about it getting out. They seem to have just let the disease run its course in order to get to a form of herd immunity, deaths be damned. If that is indeed true, then the argument should focus on that fact and how it differs fron how most Western countries are tackling the pandemic. Ireland shutting down again while Wuhan is almost fully open makes zero sense and the answer is clearly not 'China eradicated the virus'

Nearly 25% of the New Zealand economy is International tourism - not to mention all the money those service providers spend - so NZ demolished it's economy. You're spouting the party line - it's nonsense.

Vietnam borders China and is not an island.

How come you and other talking heads don't mention Vietnam which has done the best job in the world with a population of almost 100 million.

You spoke about regions in the western world that have successfully controlled the spread of the virus... check out British Columbia under Dr. Bonnie Henry, BC's Public Health Officer. She has led the province by making us all understand that we are partners to combatting COVID-19. Businesses are open and we never really went into total lockdown.

A 1-2 hour wait for the popular restaurant in the mall at dinner time in China is normal pre-COVID. That this is happening is a good sign of a return to normality.

My best friend teaches English in China. They don't wear masks, they don't practice physical or social distancing, and they share food from the same platter. I don't get it what do they know that we don't?

COVID19 has made a mockery of American Exceptionalism.

Love a little back and forth.....Ash, I don’t mind you playing the “fob” every now and again, but with the cogent accurate explanatory you can pull up instantaneously your “aw chucks” patois is wearing thin. You sit with that honking Jim Dandy passive aggressive Stratocaster off your port bow...and then can’t/won’t engage with Lewis? ....your like Maverick in “Top Gun”.....come on Billy Ray engage. BTW, Lewis I thank you for the Sunderland “Till I Die” Show heads up. My wife and I have never been into European football, but after the second episode of Season One we are hooked!....Oh....and the DB today was excellent .

forget all the intellectual back and forth. solid work on the trading places line. you catch ash off guard every time. I got Steve Vai to say it last month and the internet lost it's mind.

Hey Guys, always appreciate your commentary. Just a bit surprised that you accept China's data without acknowledging what I believe we know about their propensity to misreport. Politically-speaking, if they were ever inspired to "misreport" this would be the time, don't you think? Much of what we know about present global general conditions I think justifies at least a modicum of skepticism...

Frozen Orange Juice Concentrate, short it.

Regurgitating Chinese economic statistics without qualification is unprofessional journalism. Please provide context.

Insolvency phase? Lets be clear, are you talking about government insolvency, and a massive deleveraging world over, or a phase where business go belly up? Can Rao put deeper context on his usage of the word insolvency for us Plus subscribers and non professionals please. Will it be limited to individuals and businesses, or will it extent to central banks, and governments?

Definitely not an expert, but here's what I've heard about virus mutation: A virus may mutate in unpredictable ways. However, the lower the fatality rate of a specific mutant (i.e. the longer the infected victim survives), the more time and opportunity for the strain to reproduce and mutate into similar strains, giving higher probabilities to improved aggregate survivability of victims over time. Anyone care to collaborate or counter?

Can someone please clarify how is it that China is growing, and even more than last year, when the world economy (trade, etc) has been slowing since 2017/2018 and most other countries that import their stuff are experiencing recessions? Something doesn't add up. Maybe they are cranking all their factories and building inventories in the hopes that the other major countries come out of their recessions? In that case can we really consider it real growth?

It's clear the "Insolvency Phase" is coming to fruition as Raoul Pal had spoken of. The IMF meeting today regarding "a Bretton Wood moment" and Powell speaking about digital currency at that meeting today, when only one year ago, all of those in the meeting refused to even acknowledge any crypto and/or digital currency of any type as a valid possibility, indicates how far the world central bankers have come to realizing/admitting that the world is indeed much further along in degradation and insolvency then they were willing to admit just one year ago.

What is going on the equity and bond markets? Something is brewing.

super fast test kit will get the job done. Test Kit that can spit results on the spot inside 5min. Clubs, Restaurants, Cinemas, Airlines.. all can use it. Also, Governments world over need to strike a deal with Travel Insurance companies so travelers can be covered by meaningful insurance policy.

I think Ed's hair looks the best yet in this video