Daily Briefing – October 20, 2020

Published on
October 20th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 20, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Thomas Thornton

Published on: October 20th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss earnings, stimulus intervention, and investment time horizons. Thornton talks about how, despite stronger Q3 earnings, Q4 could demonstrate a pullback and whether the upcoming U.S. election could serve as a catalyst either to upside or downside. He also shares his thoughts on stimulus intervention and the hazards of MMT as well as on how he thinks about managing positions and time horizons. Thornton and Bennington also touch on the energy and financials sectors and how the election outcome could affect these sectors. Thornton also describes how he analyzes different sectors through technical indicators and how technicals enhance the way he invests. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down the markets reaction as lawmakers continue efforts to reach a spending bill and weighs in on the Fed’s cautious approach to possibly issuing digital currency.

Comments

Transcript

  • CS
    Charles S.
    23 October 2020 @ 21:17
    As an almost purely technical trader, I am nevertheless very interested in all things macro. IMO, when macro-trader Tom Thornton waxes about the DeMark Indicators, it suggests to me that Thornton has very limited technical insight, as the best ideas and methods are almost certainly not sold as a vendor package, even to a limited customer set, and are almost always arrived at singularly by lone individual traders, or are disclosed f2f, e.g. from one family member to another. Perhaps Thornton does have a truly superior model. We'll never know, as he would have no reason to disclose it here. In any case, the I think the RV audience should not presume that DeMark indicators are any kind of magic, in fact years ago a very experienced trader told me that his exhaustive backtesting of them found them severely wanting -- one more reason to conjecture that Thornton may have his own secret sauce that makes them palatable.
    • CS
      Charles S.
      23 October 2020 @ 21:44
      also: perhaps Thornton has undisclosed alternatives to detect the implications of monthly charts, but his claim not to use them should not be taken as recommended practice for anyone else, as monthly charts can be extremely useful sources of market generated information.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    23 October 2020 @ 12:10
    Excellent .... Thank you both!
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    22 October 2020 @ 18:45
    More Tom please!
  • JN
    Jerrick N.
    22 October 2020 @ 00:40
    Never trust a moving monkey average...
  • MC
    Michael C.
    21 October 2020 @ 22:18
    Today's CNBC Fast Money 10/21 had a segment on bitcoin. IMHO that's a sign of a ST top...kinda like when Buffett/BRK bought some Barrick Gold.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      21 October 2020 @ 22:27
      continued I took some GBTC off that I had bought on margin yesterday 10/20. And I took some off in the last hour today 10/21 when it slid below the 3PM price (that's my tip...I wait till 10:30 AM to put trades on and if I am thinking about selling, I like to wait to 3PM to see if the big boys are taking their positions home esp Fridays.) GBTC was up a buck in the first hour and down 8 cents in the last, exact opposite of what one wants to see. Based on Tommy's remarks, I will be looking to let some more go in the AM.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    21 October 2020 @ 17:24
    Nice job Haley!
  • AG
    Amol G.
    21 October 2020 @ 15:40
    Curious where Tom saw a Demark 13 for BTC. Because I'm not seeing a Demark 13 on any time frame or any exchange or any instrument. I've checked Coinbase, Bitmex, Kraken, CME futures, GBTC, and I've checked daily, weekly, monthly charts.
  • DM
    David M.
    21 October 2020 @ 14:20
    Have Tom back more often, he always has excellent insights and I look forward to hearing what he has to say every time. Thanks for coming on Tom, and thanks RV for bringing him on!
  • MM
    Mike M.
    21 October 2020 @ 12:13
    Where's my man TG? It's Tuesday.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      21 October 2020 @ 13:14
      Tony will be back next Tuesday.
    • LB
      Lukas B.
      21 October 2020 @ 13:23
      This was 10x more important than Tony saying the same thing he says every Tuesday.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    21 October 2020 @ 13:06
    Tom Thank you for discussing your ETF data technique. Your technique to rank ETFs and ultimately their holdings is extremely helpful. Gave me some ideas to add to my models. Obviously your data sets and detailed models are more involved then just weighing 50ma.. I would assume thats just the starting point a more detailed and cohesive model. Regardless your technique gave me an idea on how I will incorporate ETF data in my own models. . I also appreciate your deep dive into politics last time you were on RV. I know investors get blow back whenever they state a position or simple discuss potential outcomes. After years in this business its important for there to be intricate political data in ones models. A model which does not take in to account multiple political probability outcomes is a model operating blind.
  • CA
    Cris A.
    21 October 2020 @ 12:27
    he's talking Elliott Wave, ma man
  • DG
    David G.
    20 October 2020 @ 23:59
    Please more of this on RV! It doesn't necessarily need to be on DB, because I like hearing Ed and Raoul's take on the big picture. However, RV seems big long term fund manager heavy to me, and I enjoy hearing from shorter term traders as well. I especially like when Ash presses them, not only for their opinion on the market, but also for how they execute, and analyze technical data. For the reason above, I most look forward to DB on Tuesday, and Thursday. Can Tony, Roger, or Thomas join us for a Q&A from the viewers someday? That would be Awesome!!!!! Maybe RV can set up a paid trader mentorship with Tony. No picks, just and a camera and a hot mic, so we can sit next to him from our homes, and watch and learn how he does work. Thanks.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      21 October 2020 @ 00:07
      David, I agree with you 100%. Switching it up with Tony Greer, Tommy, Dave Floyd and Roger plus other voices makes RVDB richer. I look forward to Roger in particular since I am the one who interviews him most and learn a lot from his perspective. We all have our strengths.
    • Jv
      Juri v.
      21 October 2020 @ 09:28
      I personally love mixing up the daily briefing with guests!
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    21 October 2020 @ 09:21
    Always great to hear an update from you Thomas, thanks a lot for sharing your insights!!
  • MS
    Martin S.
    21 October 2020 @ 08:13
    Great episode really enjoyed hearing how Tom thinking about things, but more importantly trading this environment. I love it when RVDB focuses on short term trading (strategies, opportunities, various thesis, etc). Seems to me what this segment should primarily concentrate on. More traders with in depth analysis of their strategies and how they are implementing in this moment is just gold. Wow, we are very lucky to have RV, very grateful for all the content 🙏
  • MD
    Matt D.
    21 October 2020 @ 03:44
    Great - thanks Ash and Tom. Enjoyed the talk on shorting (get Goldman to make a market!) - and the DMark (? spelling) talk on BTC. I am the same - lower prices are a good entry point. Tom is always great, thanks for having him back!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      21 October 2020 @ 04:47
      Thanks, Matt. Here's a link to the DeMark site: https://demark.com/
    • CR
      Christopher R.
      21 October 2020 @ 04:58
      Yeah! Looking forward to a more in depth talk about demark(?) (not sure if this is the one https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/demarkerindicator.asp)
    • MD
      Matt D.
      21 October 2020 @ 07:24
      Thanks Ash. Will investigate.
  • JP
    John P.
    21 October 2020 @ 06:11
    I use DeMark indicators and am always interested in approaches for how they are used. They are pure psychological indicators, which is why they work well with bitcoin. The key difficulty lies in judging the length of the reversal, while a TD 9 sell could be a long term reversal lasting months, it could also be only a 1-4 period correction in a trend.
  • JP
    John P.
    21 October 2020 @ 06:11
    I use DeMark indicators and am always interested in approaches for how they are used. They are pure psychological indicators, which is why they work well with bitcoin. The key difficulty lies in judging the length of the reversal, while a TD 9 sell could be a long term reversal lasting months, it could also be only a 1-4 period correction in a trend.
  • JV
    John V.
    21 October 2020 @ 02:32
    Very good - liked his technical analysis and his sharing of price targets.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      21 October 2020 @ 04:58
      Seconded
  • JA
    John A.
    21 October 2020 @ 01:13
    "hold your nose and go long" Seriously I am just not built that way haha. I grew up with this weird notion that you invest in something that works without the help of the government or twitter pumps from the President. Crazy, I know. Appreciate the viewpoint, it still confirms my feeling that everyone who is long in 2020 believes they can get out of the burning house before everyone else. Don't know who, but someone who is an expert and does this for a living is going to get carried out again and have to get a real job before this is all over. Currently looking at Softbank to take the gold medal in that contest. The only thing that I think has potential at some point is Oil, but only because it has been killed by the COVID shock and no amount of stimulus is going to create more demand or more storage, thus its fall is actually rational. But at some point, it should at least stabilize in 2021. I just don't want to own it now while markets are all sitting on their hands waiting for more stimulus - just waiting to throw a temper tantrum if someone tells them "no more".
    • RM
      Robert M.
      21 October 2020 @ 03:30
      Struggle with the same issue. Have found it hard to buy high priced stocks and distressed stocks can look like bear traps. But agree with Thomas, may soon be time to buy some oil and banks though the future looks tough for both right now. But many companies will pay you to hold them for a while.
  • KT
    Ken T.
    21 October 2020 @ 01:32
    Very much enjoyed. Have more guests with shorter time frames on.
  • LT
    Lisa T.
    21 October 2020 @ 01:13
    I really liked listening to how Tom looks at charts, time frames, and thinks about risk in the market. Thanks Ash for the good questions.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    21 October 2020 @ 00:51
    Tom is great and sneaky funny!
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    21 October 2020 @ 00:39
    Way to too ST and noisy for me
  • JK
    John K.
    20 October 2020 @ 23:33
    A like the new face on the db. It’s a nice change of pace. I also liked how he was willing to give out his price targets on his indicators. Not afraid of some egg on his face if he’s wrong. It doesn’t event really matter if he is but I admire the confidence
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    20 October 2020 @ 23:30
    Great video.
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    20 October 2020 @ 23:26
    Around 12:10 I think we heard some gas passed lmaooo
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    20 October 2020 @ 23:06
    Nice work, Tom!