Daily Briefing – October 27, 2020

Published on
October 27th, 2020
Duration
27 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 27, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: October 27th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of price action in equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Tony reviews Monday’s rout in U.S. stocks and corresponding pop in the VIX, and explores why FX volatility was so low. He and Ash then discuss Bitcoin’s surge upon the news that Paypal is allowing bitcoin transactions on its platform. They look at durable goods orders, oil, gold, as well as investigating how big central bank balance sheets might get going forward. Lastly, Tony shares his view on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential election might affect markets. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at home sales, mall foreclosures, and “lender-on-lender” violence in the credit markets.

Comments

Transcript

  • EC
    Elliott C.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:05
    Tony is irresponsibly opinionated and biased for Trump and against Biden. This colors his whole market thesis and makes him unwatchable not because he is a "refreshing contrary voice" on the show, but simply because he is allowing his own opinions on politics to color his views.
    • RP
      Ronald P.
      29 October 2020 @ 03:19
      It doesn't necessarily bother me but I completely agree with this analysis. I legitimately discredit Tony as an unbiased market view and look at him as an emotional indicator in the market for now, which to be fair isn't at all useless but is contradictory to how he is allowed to present himself/what RV wants him to be in this show. It's free and awesome given that context so doesn't bother me but definitely feel Elliot is fair and on point.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:25
    Tuesdays are the best day for Daily Briefing for hearing about traders. With the bias at CNBC, it's good to hear another opinion. Intelligent people understand bias and take away knowledge. Open minded people understand bias and don't waste energy on political noise.
  • AP
    Anne P.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:06
    Just Where does Tony get his "insights" about the election's outcome?
    • LB
      Lukas B.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:19
      Breitbart, RT, Daily Wire, Fox News
    • DT
      David T.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:36
      From a Russian troll farm in Kremlin.
    • DL
      David L.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:26
      Macedonian content farmers?
    • BH
      Bradley H.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:49
      my guess... from tacit knowledge of being well read and a thoughtful contrarian observer of markets.
    • YB
      Yair B.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:50
      Following him for a while now. It is probably the sentiment. The sentiment and the media pushing a blue wave story, makes him look at what is not told. Same with markets. In March when everyone was saying the s&p is heading to 1700, he flipped the story and went long.
    • JV
      John V.
      28 October 2020 @ 02:32
      Tony seems to rely on his "gut" feelings a lot. I have not seen much he has presented supported by evidence / data. I do not even bother to watch him.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      28 October 2020 @ 02:39
      There are some funny responses here. Tony has no insight on the election anymore than the rest of us. Certainly can't base it on FinTwit, which clearly favors one party. The funny part, since the 1920s, the market outperforms under Democratic presidents versus Republican presidents. Lots of biases when it comes to politics and markets that are not necessarily accurate.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      28 October 2020 @ 10:25
      I suspect years of experience doing what he does, let’s him identify anecdotal evidence and other, what he calls ‘tells’. Just because you don’t understand it, doesn’t mean he’s wrong Or he should be mocked. Let’s be honest, he’s the guy that does this for a living. It was the same for BREXIT. The signs were all there even when Leave trailed in the polls. You just had to leave the big cities, ignore MSM and their vested interest, and you quickly got a sense of the nation.
    • DM
      Don M.
      28 October 2020 @ 19:25
      He doesn't. It's what he hopes. Everything is filtered through his political lens - I subscribed for awhile. When the market goes up it's Trump. When it goes down it's Biden or Harris, etc.
  • DA
    David A.
    28 October 2020 @ 17:52
    I listen to Tony Greer not because I value what he says but because he represents a narrative that is out there that I should be aware of. He presents himself as an observer of markets but in reality he also tells the market what to do and makes predictions off the back of that. I love what Jack Farley is doing the moment - may his voice continue to grow on Real Vision
  • JS
    Jared S.
    28 October 2020 @ 16:07
    Can you implement an upvote/downvote so the best comments are visible at the top (similar to Reddit)? There’s great value in these but don’t always have time to read them all.
  • JA
    John A.
    28 October 2020 @ 14:52
    As always, when TG turns bearish I will know this is for real and hope is dead. I don't hold TG's view, but I appreciate hearing the opposite argument of my view.
  • JA
    John A.
    28 October 2020 @ 13:58
    The unrestricted bull market in domestic oil is exactly what killed it. Why do you think that in a world where even the Saudis are having trouble controlling the supply of oil that Trump has any power whatsoever to save the energy sector short term? There is simply too much supply for too little demand right now, and that is depressing prices. It has been a moving trend since before COVID hit. Even if the US tries to artificially increase demand by rolling back green energy further, the rest of the world isn't going in that direction. It makes more sense strategically for the US to keep a lid on its own output, develop other energy sources in tandem, and benefit from the world falling over itself to sell oil for dollars at cheap prices. Seriously, I don't see how oil gets above $60 in a post covid world, and not without a whole lot of dollar debasement going on in the process. And there are better dollar bear plays than oil out there if that is the predominant view. My $0.02
  • SM
    Sergio M.
    28 October 2020 @ 13:47
    Today you got your big day in the FX market
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:56
    As always, great discussion Ash and TG. But i must say Jack F is sounding more and more interesting, bringing the market analysis together. Would like to hear more from him. Overall, great content!
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:44
    Shit Tony, we're going back to March. Damn!
  • MM
    Mike M.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:38
    I love TG Tuesdays because of the comments.
  • LK
    L K.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:24
    Paypal will not allow customers to take custody of their bitcoin. This brings up a similar can of worms that has already been debated about the paper gold market and is something worth considering before investing. Jameson Lopp recently wrote an excellent piece on the Casa blog describing how custody brings systemic risk to bitcoin. https://blog.keys.casa/the-custodian-menace/
  • JV
    Jerry V.
    28 October 2020 @ 12:10
    The Daily Briefing is such a great addition to the RV platform and the inclusion of regular guests like TG really add a special something. TG Tuesday is one of my favorites - Thx
  • RE
    Ryan E.
    28 October 2020 @ 11:18
    Keep up the great work Jack!
  • GH
    Guy H.
    28 October 2020 @ 10:31
    Mix of interesting, relevant, sensible views and low-rent politics. Fortunately enough of the first three. I love how Wall Street just hates them so-called socialists but soils the bed when governments aren't raining stimulus. Privatise gains, socialise losses - never a bad business model but leaves the indelible stain of hypocrisy.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    28 October 2020 @ 10:25
    Fantastic -- always look forward to the TG Tuesday show with my morning coffee! Thank you Ash and Tony. Have a great week
  • CK
    C K.
    28 October 2020 @ 10:01
    Ash, I'm surprised to hear that you only hold a small position in Bitcoin!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    28 October 2020 @ 09:34
    In a few years time we'll look back and reminisce about the days of finance... before central banks owned every asset ;)
  • Ev
    Edwin v.
    28 October 2020 @ 09:22
    Great piece! Always enjoy listening to TG and will be some crazy exciting times ahead. Cheers from Holland
  • BF
    Bill F.
    28 October 2020 @ 03:37
    I like to listen to Tony and I know he's biased on a Trump/Republican win. You have to make money for yourself and your clients and the R's seem to make it rain... at least that is the narrative. I, too, am biased and I think the R's are killing us... btw the D's are too but in the country's current predicament I believe the D's will do a better job of helping the 70% of folks that are hurting, I like listening to Tony because, when I turn off the biases (mine and his), he has a lot of thoughtful things to say... what happens to the markets if the R's win, what if the D's win? What is the 30y bond saying, what about the 10? I appreciate that Tony has opinions but is not fixed on them. It sounds to me that when the facts change he moves his opinion. I respect that flexibility and it makes me a better market thinker. ok, I'm really Tony's BF but don't let my comments bias you. Ash and Tony, I love "TG Tuesdays"!
    • MC
      Mark C.
      28 October 2020 @ 07:03
      When I grow up I want to be like Tony. I look forward to TG Tuesdays.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    28 October 2020 @ 04:24
    QE-Drives Yields lower ultimately...Lower Yields=Deflation BTW You cannot bet on 40 trillion that's insane..
    • MO
      Master O.
      28 October 2020 @ 06:00
      When the balance sheet of the FED reaches theoe kind of levels is basically telling you that the Federal Government is bankrupt and deflation is not the outcome as some economists might think.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    28 October 2020 @ 05:06
    Great to have TG on with some constructive optimism. Been very doom and gloom lately. It would be very interesting to have Cathie Wood or David Lee on whom both have more of a bullish outlook on the future of the markets. Part of the educational piece surely must be to have the other side of the argument now when RV have been pounded the drum for a while.
  • PM
    Phil M.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:08
    Here's the link to that Grant Williams podcast with Felix Zulauf if anyone wants to listen. https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0009/
    • HB
      Herman B.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:01
      Phil, Actually I would advise to anyone who enjoy learning some scary truth to listen to the entire "The End Game" series of the same podcast. From Episode 1 to 9. What a treasure! Especially Mr Lacy Hunt's portion!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      28 October 2020 @ 02:35
      Agree with Herman. Grant's podcast is a must listen.
    • JG
      Jave G.
      28 October 2020 @ 04:18
      Agree with Herman. I got directed over to Grant's podcast of when he talked to Mike Green. And I've been devouring all the episodes I can the last couple weeks.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    28 October 2020 @ 03:29
    The fundamental comments of Tony. I am very positively surprised for his foreground comments. How he combines with his observations. Great job this interview! 👍🏽 Kamala Harris is bearish and this is not a poem! 😜
  • RM
    Robert M.
    28 October 2020 @ 02:48
    Trump, even if he loses, will stay on Twitter even more as he works to launch the Trump network.
  • ST
    Sri T.
    28 October 2020 @ 02:43
    Hard to believe TWTR is going up because of Trump's chances going up. Why are solar stocks still up? TAN isn't crashing...
  • HS
    Han S.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:00
    Looking at VIX, looking at Japanese Yen Futures, Looking at the move in Bonds. I completely disagree.
    • LB
      Leslie B.
      28 October 2020 @ 02:29
      Exactly!
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    28 October 2020 @ 02:29
    This is interesting. Yesterday, Ed discusses Trump's potential win (which is clearly not his first personal choice) and a few reasonable scenarios that don't seem to be priced in, and the community's feedback is - keep your views to yourself. TG goes full TG and only Anne P asks a question. Per Grant, things that make you go hmmmm...
  • JI
    JWD I.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:49
    great suggestion Ash...RV should get a panel together and discuss...maybe this should have several segments to it.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:57
    Does anyone have the link to the Raoul talk he referenced?
    • BH
      Bradley H.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:42
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL2LfVRl3J0&t=1306s
    • AF
      Ash F.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:42
      I assume it was this one, but Friday's RVDB also hit on many of his core themes. https://www.realvision.com/shows/expert-view-crypto/videos/the-bitcoin-life-raft-and-the-new-bretton-woods
  • BK
    Brian K.
    27 October 2020 @ 22:52
    The 50 Trillion dollar balance sheet? REALLY SCARY STUFF.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:15
      It isn't really if one looks honestly at the evolution of things: Going in 2008 financial crisis, people hair caught fire about the $750 billions discussion. Then came QE, Mr Powell tried QT for what 3 months or something and the house (of cards) started to come down quickly. Today, the good people, in Washington, are talking about 1.8 to 2.2 trillions. I think we need to start being honest with ourselves and say out it loud "They will never balance the budget!".
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:08
    So QE doesn't create money it just controls interest rates. Money is created via lending and fiscal spending (where fiscal spending is essence a form of borrowing - aka lending)
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:04
    So I have a tough time swallowing SOMA holdings growing that large. Treasuries are required to make the collateral markets work unless a substitute is found which would constrain rehypothecation. Of course who knows...
  • AS
    Abi S.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:55
    TWTR is the tell for Trumpy win.. Good lord..
  • DT
    David T.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:34
    Bond story did not seem convincing and election outcome also.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:08
    TG and Ash are the adults in the room. Great conversation. TG needs to conduct some interviews on RV, along the lines of what Mike Green does. Let TG select people he would like to interview and let the camera roll. Holdings: long RV
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 October 2020 @ 23:18
      TG has an interview series already and is likely going to do an interview very soon. So get ready!
  • PM
    Phil M.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:07
    Love TG Tuesday, nice work guys