Daily Briefing – October 28, 2020

Published on
October 28th, 2020
Duration
33 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 28, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison

Published on: October 28th, 2020 • Duration: 33 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison for a special edition of the Daily Briefing. Ed gives an update on his thesis, now that U.S. and European equities have continued to tumble, and analyzes how the halting of economic activity in Europe will likely cause a double dip recession that is very bad for risk assets. Ash breaks down the COVID-19 data on cases, deaths, and hospitalizations, and he and Ed look forward to see whether this past six months of economic recovery is nothing more than an “interregnum” or a “head fake.”

Comments

Transcript

  • MO
    Milos O.
    1 November 2020 @ 14:19
    I work at one of those urgent cares with a line of people wrapped around the building. The most frustrating part is triaging between people who are actually sick and people who have very mild symptoms and think they might be sick. I understand though. Nobody wants to give COVID to there grandparents. Glad I found Real Vision. It is always an interesting watch. Seems like the SHA-256 algorithm has a better track record than the Fed. ;)
  • rm
    ryan m.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:59
    Sounds like buying opportunities for the next 6 weeks. Going all in. "Pandemics are temporary, not permanent. Even if a vaccine never arrives, the virus will burn out in time. There’s a 100% certainty a multi-trillion-dollar package will pass the US Congress, whether it’s before or after the vote. CBs will continue to do what our guys pledged today – keep rates crashed and hold the taps open with billions in quantitative easing (QE). The combo of this fiscal and monetary stimulus will keep the lights on and markets supported until the bug departs." GT
    • NI
      Nate I.
      29 October 2020 @ 05:45
      You could be right. An entire generation has been conditioned to buy the dip so you're certainly not alone. All I can say is that the economy is bigger than the Fed. Eventually this ends. I don't know if this one takes out the Fed or not, but I'm cautious here.
    • VN
      Vitali N.
      29 October 2020 @ 21:07
      for the sake of an argument, let's say "the bug departs" tomorrow. What are left with? a 2% economy, 27T of debt load, and one of the most overvalued stock market in history pre-pandemic. Then what, just asking?
  • SL
    Sean L.
    29 October 2020 @ 12:17
    Ed, you're getting a little carried away. The American death stats are extremely suspect. Hospitals had to shut down and cancel all surgeries and were then, on the brink of bankruptcy, were given an incentive (almost $50k) to report deaths as covid deaths. There's no good data on age and comorbidities but what we do have indicates this isn't dangerous for the vast majority of the population. We could spend in an extreme way on vulnerable populations and it wouldn't come near the cost of lockdowns. There's no indication that there's going to be an exponential rise in deaths and hospitalizations without a lockdown. Further, if there were, people are smart enough to stop going out on their own and don't need gov't mandated lockdowns. So many people forget that the gov't didn't mandate the first lockdowns, people stopped going out AND THEN then gov't locked down so it looked like they were doing something for political reasons. Small business booking data preceded gov't action. There's a lot of conflicting evidence about the best way to handle this and I hope you'll reconsider the idea that gov't inaction will lead to more deaths. There's no definitive proof of this and it enables dangerous levels of authoritarian power grabs. If you ever find yourself thinking 'people are stupid and the government knows better' then slap yourself in the face and understand how deeply deeply wrong you are. Our synthesis of democracy and free markets is an extremely sophisticated form of decentralized decision making. The nature of it is that we risk some people being wrong but this messy clash of ideas helps us get at the truth faster than we otherwise would and makes errors less catastrophic. The idea that we should give total control to experts (or you) is extremely dangerous. No one is smarter than everyone and even if they were, there's no way to know who that person is ahead of time.
    • KB
      Kevin B.
      29 October 2020 @ 13:55
      Very well stated! Is Ed, as managing editor, stating the official RV or Raoul’s thesis?
    • BM
      Brook M.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:04
      Right on Sean! Well stated. People who are not "smart enough to stop going out on their own" are nature's way of culling the herd.
  • PW
    Paul W.
    28 October 2020 @ 22:49
    I respect Ed and appreciate hearing his insights, but in this case a little more humility on predicting the course of the pandemic would have been nice. No credit for predicting a second wave, pretty much every epidemiologist at the time was predicting the same. I do remember, however, Ed telling us late spring/early summer that Europe had handled the pandemic much better than the US and that European stocks would therefore perform much better. There is much we still don't know about the ongoing pandemic, and predicting what will happen in the future is problematic at best.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 October 2020 @ 23:02
      Paul, I hear you on this. But my message is that I don’t know any more than the average person about epidemiology. And if it was clear to me what was likely to happen, then that means it’s not rocket science. I have no special insight. I was just putting 2 and 2 together. As to the European outperformance, I was wrong. It was fleeting, and only because of the currency. And it could also be wrong that there’s no trade-off between public health and the economy. Maybe, not locking down will mean better economic (and market) outcomes. I accept that. And if I am wrong, I will say so.
    • BK
      Bruce K.
      28 October 2020 @ 23:37
      Ed, keep doin' what you're doin'. Your strong opinions—on Covid and other topics—are exceptionally well informed. It is wonderful to hear your fact-based thought process. And kudos to owning up when your opinions prove wrong.
    • SS
      Sunny S.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:06
      Ed, I think you've followed the current mainstream covid headlines a little too much just recently, I have to say. It seems to me that the hype could affect markets but the death count is not supporting a calamity. I had a look at a few news reports and the focus is on the daily case counts not the daily death rates, click bait news. When there was a daily death rate discussion they mentioned that the virus was mutating (alarmist news) to the March strain and it was changing to something more contagious however, transforming to probably something less lethal. It's easy to pick and choose a graph that tells the narrative when one wants to hype the news. The dynamic link below provides stats on various countries excess death rates since the beginning of 2020. Please have a look at the headline economies like France, UK and Germany, USA and then all of them, you might find that a lot of excess deaths are also in the negative% in some countries. The clue to look for is are hospitals overburdened and some reports admitted they were not. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-by-age?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=AUT-0~BEL-0~BGR-0~CHL-0~HRV-0~CZE-0~DNK-0~England%20%26%20Wales-0~EST-0~FIN-0~FRA-0~DEU-0~GRC-0~HUN-0~ISL-0~ISR-0~ITA-0~LVA-0~LTU-0~LUX-0~NLD-0~NZL-0~Northern%20Ireland-0~NOR-0~POL-0~PRT-0~Scotland-0~SVK-0~SVN-0~KOR-0~ESP-0~SWE-0~CHE-0~USA-0&region=World Even though deaths are a lagging (2-4 week) indicator the only real stat that matters is excess deaths because there are too many variables e.g. cross jurisdictions, health systems diagnosis variability, allowed treatments and mutation. The USA charts presented in your video shows 3 waves crests in the daily infection and a coming 3rd wave in daily death rate going in opposite directions if you were to join the peaks. This is charting analysis which you guys talk about week and in week out, it should be a strong hint that its overhyped. The biggest risk is to the economy with more shutdowns (this is another own goal). There has been a lot of discussion about how the Covid tests being not very valid methodology of positively identifying actively infectious people. In fact prior to the pandemic it was standard on any virus to have to perform two slightly different tests for sensitivity and sensibility. This basically representing possible inclusion followed by a certain exclusion test. Why the change for this pandemic? As well as the fact that the PCR tests pick up anyone with remnants of RNA and just plain false positive results. To me the real narrative is probably that the testing methodology picks up a lot of asymptomatic people that actually aren't asymptomatic. i.e. The error count in the positive test results can be well higher that 80%. That's a story that changes the whole headline to (kicking an own goal). I know that this doesn't change your 3 day market narrative because we buy the rumour and sell the news but your 6 week forecast may need to be revised to allow for narrative adjustments based on facts prevailing. Ed to me the main 6 week news to me is I think the odds of a surprise Trump victory has gone up as of late. I would be keen to get your views on how that would affect markets post 3rd of November and in 6 weeks. Bond market up, stock market up? What's priced in?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:36
      Only stat that matters is hospitalizations. Don' t believe health departments are shutting things down due to older people dying (outside of rules for nursing homes). They start to shut things down when the hospitals get full. That is what is impacting local economies, not the number of people dying - particularly as medical techniques have improved these numbers.
    • SS
      Sunny S.
      29 October 2020 @ 18:10
      I agree hospitalisations is a stat that should be looked at in more detail but i'm not sure how much that would slow down the economy. What I notice is when I walk on the street there's more people asking for handouts, while we can worry about getting hospitalised by coronavirus some people are worried about starving and I'm guessing its going to get worse. That's a red flag to me, where's the right balance?
  • JF
    Joao F.
    29 October 2020 @ 15:40
    Keep up the good work! Great review Ash and Ed.
  • LB
    Leanne B.
    29 October 2020 @ 15:29
    Great breakdown. The daily show has really kept me going and been very helpful throughout the pandemic. Thanks much.
  • AT
    Ashley T.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:15
    America will shutdown for sure...the odds are way in favour of it....When Europe was shutting down before everyone said America wouldn't because they didn't have the cases...then they did and they did...why wouldn't they this time when the same thing is happening?? Ofcourse they'll shutdown again as the cases and deaths will rise greatly...history may not always repeat, but this will undoubtedly, and it makes sense to...especially if Biden wins...
    • JR
      Jaymes R.
      29 October 2020 @ 11:48
      Naaaa- a US citizen
    • mw
      michael w.
      29 October 2020 @ 15:25
      Why would they after seeing the disastrous results of the first one? And after having a better understanding of the virus?
  • mw
    michael w.
    29 October 2020 @ 15:18
    Very odd that people make it political. If Covid-19 was never made into a partisan dispute, it likely would have far less of an effect on the economy.
  • MT
    Mike T.
    29 October 2020 @ 10:41
    I'd like to add a comment regarding yesterdays price action, in advance I have nothing to say on Covid, Trump, Biden, Stimulus, Fed, or looking for an Oracle that can predict the future. Yesterday presented some really good opportunties to establish new positions and it took less than 10 mins in total to identify and establish. My point in placing this post whilst probably a poor attempt, is to try and show there is no need to get into the weeds of News, Pandemics, Politics, or paying for highly expensive newsletters to your favourite Market Oracle. There is a much faster method of finding good opportunities. Yesterday at one point the VIX got above 40. A quick glance of a longer term chart of the VIX will confirm that since 2002 there have only been 8 volatility clusters of time in 18 years when the VIX has been higher than 40, put simply VIX at 40 does not happen very often. Of course it can go higher e.g. March 18th 2020 but VIX above 40 is rare and VIX above 40 means Options premiums were relatively expensive, which in turn means yesterday presented a good opportunity to establish NEW short premium, short volatility positions. There is of course no certaintly the VIX will decline there is never certaintly in this world but I like the odds, the probabilities (not the certainties) are attractive. My next step, scan for stocks than have Options with optimal liquidity. The further filter for stocks whose price range is in my Comfort zone relative to my total Capital such that if the position goes against me, and most will experience large EXTRINSIC losses at some point over the life of a position, I'm not sweating on being assigned or 'feeling' the need to panic exit. If I keep the positions small (small means different things to different people) then I'm best placed to let the mathmatics and statistics play out over time. The majority of the NEW Short premium positions in the December 18 Monthly cycle i.e. 51 days to expiry I entered yesterday were UNDEFINED RISK. Why undefined I hear many say, because undefined positions have significantly more flexiblity to adjust e.g. roll up, roll down, roll out all the while collecting more $ credits. As soon as a short premium strategy includes a protective long strike to limit losses aka defined risk strategies it should be noted that defined risk is statistically most likely to get to max loss much quicker than undefined risk. A word of caution, the aforementioned outline of short premium trading is not a short journey to learn. Typically it takes maybe two years to become an averagely competent. I'll not be expecting many positive reactions as since day one of RV there has never been even one speaker articulating the benefits of Short Volatility Option trading.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      29 October 2020 @ 14:41
      ..... and today at the time of writing the VIX is down 7.62% on yesterdays close. The new short premium, short vol option positions established yesterday already doing nicely on day one, and without a single thought to Trump, Politics, News, Twitter, Covid, Vaccinces, and so it goes on using nothing more than mathmatical probabilities and statistics. So much easier to make decisions if all the other stuff is simply ignored, tuned out.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      29 October 2020 @ 14:48
      and before anyone suggests I'm cherry picking to make a case. That's not the case I fully except a single days market activity in itself does not mean much, except to suggest that if even just one person on this forum starts to think there might, just might be something in Short Vol option trading and in turn starts the journey of learning this post will have served it's purpose.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:38
    Where did the idea that the Covid-19 is mutating to be less deadly come from???? Just stunning - Death rate is dropping because we are better at taking care of folks with the disease.
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      29 October 2020 @ 13:14
      Because that is what coronaviruses Tend to do. They want to survive but can’t do that if they become more deadly.
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    29 October 2020 @ 13:06
    Dr. Ed seems to forget that medical therapies have evolved relative to March, as has behaviors. The highest-risk populations have been self-isolating. Time-stamp it. 🙄
  • JM
    Jake M.
    29 October 2020 @ 12:48
    So a trump win isn't priced in. What does that mean to market IF trump wins?
  • HS
    Hamish S.
    29 October 2020 @ 12:20
    Just got to add I could really sense the urgency/excitment/panic in today's broadcast. More energy than most of previous RVDB episodes. Does it epitomise markets?
  • GV
    Gunnar V.
    28 October 2020 @ 22:49
    You're forgetting the obvious 3rd choice on Covid. 2-4 week hard lockdown where nobody goes out and the cases get cut at the knees. Less economic and mental pain than doing what we're doing and far far shorter. These times don't have to continue.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 October 2020 @ 23:04
      Given Trump’s stated position on coronavirus, I give any (early or targeted) national US lockdown scenario a low probability weighting
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:32
      Believe a national shutdown has a low probability whoever wins next week. But to Ed's point, if case counts grow leading to full hospitals, then health departments will be forced to act. This will be a wet blanket on the economy as people will self-select to not get out as much and governments continue to put constraints on industries that require social interaction. As investors, we need to ask ourselves how to play this highly possible scenario. And it may be a different game plan than in March.
    • HS
      Hamish S.
      29 October 2020 @ 12:15
      2-4 weeks will end up being 8-16 weeks, unless unrest breaks the lockdowns
  • LL
    Ludovico L.
    29 October 2020 @ 11:04
    Looking forward to the live event Ash! Great conversation and insight in this briefing.
  • PS
    Paul S.
    29 October 2020 @ 07:45
    Enjoyed and appreciated your commentary as always, guys. Just two quick thoughts: 1) I disagree with Ed's take on the status of the pandemic, but have great respect for his smarts and insight. That's why I really want to understand his perspective and would have liked to hear a bit more specifically what he sees coming. 2) As for Ash... I'm sure you've heard this a dozen times before, but "Not your keys, not your coins." :) It's not just about SoV, it's also about sovereignty in a wildly uncertain environment. See Raoul's interview w Kiril Sokoloff from Monday or others recently where he's touched on gold. Have been impressed by the number of really smart players who want to own physical. Same arguments apply, IMO.
  • AM
    Andrew M.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:20
    Ash, I have to admit that my jaw dropped when you mentioned not owning any actual BTC! But I suppose we owe you a break with all of the great work you've done in educating people on the crypto-future ahead.
    • LK
      L K.
      29 October 2020 @ 07:29
      I hope Ash has held private keys, run his own node etc. in the past. Otherwise it's a case of the blind leading the blind in terms of education.
  • EK
    Eric K.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:48
    Guys this is maybe one of the best analyses I've heard about the likely future of the epidemic and the economic ramifications. I've been in public health for 30 years and I've been frustrated throughout this entire pandemic by the market's blindness to what I have felt was the obvious: that there is NO good news related to this pandemic. My feeling (and I hope I'm wrong) is just as Ed described. I also agree that divided government = really bad. I've not heard anybody else talk about this. Lastly, I fully agree that Ash needs to be long actual bitcoin! Whoa! Maybe the most shocking revelation I've heard in weeks! So sad. Keep up the good work guys!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:13
      Agree. Excellent analysis. Pandemic is driving markets and rather than making it about politics, more important to make it about numbers and government closures and how these actions impact industries/business. As investors, have to try to predict the future and with Covid, what will be the continuing drag as it cycles up again. As far as Asia, may be time to look at investments in those markets as Taiwan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea are seeing improvements in their economy.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      29 October 2020 @ 05:51
      Since you've been in public health for 30 years, maybe you can enlighten us. Why are masks and lockdowns the only topics of discussion? There are a dozen or more things people can do to mitigate the virus, but we never hear a peep about them. I won't write a book here, but one example is vitamin D levels that have been strongly associated with better outcomes, yet total silence from the health authorities.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    29 October 2020 @ 04:15
    What’s an ATS product?
  • DG
    David G.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:53
    Hi Ed, I want to list some differences now verses the past in no particular order. 1. increased Vitamin C and D intake of the population. 2. Hospitals were increasing mortality rates by prioritizing staff safety over patient outcome. eg scheduled intubation if more than 6L O2 via nc is required, No Bipap or cipap, no nebs, No chest PT. The rational was emergent intubations and all of the mentioned treatments would increase the risk of staff infection. The vent has it's own risk and our actions at the time led to more patients ending up on a vent than what should have been the case. 3. Summer testing increases was a false 2nd wave. 4. Now you are seeing a the beginning of a real 2nd wave. that presents as having already reached the levels of the first wave because we do have more testing now than at any point during the first wave. 5. The most vulnerable population was at risk last winter prior to knowing it. That population, as well as other demographics already mitigates their behavior going in to this fall's flu/covid-19 season. e.g. mask, avoiding large gatherings, better hand washing, working from home, maximizing e-commerce, and forced unemployment. 6. More treatment weapons than last winter as well as an increased willingness to uses treatments that were avoided last season. 7. The possibility that some people who have partial or full immunity from exposure during the last 9 months. I think behavior may lead to a double dip recession but the death toll will not surpass the worst months of last season during any month this season in the US.
  • DB
    David B.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:50
    Australia and New Zealand ... yes .. we are islands .. but regardless still doing a much better job with Covid-19 than the empire in decline (USA in case u yanks missed that one) ... and yes .. we stopped importing cOVID-19 from USA a long time ago with travel bans ...
  • ac
    anthony c.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:45
    Ed, I would like to hear your take on whether some of the sensationalized Covid fear coverage in main stream and social media is driven by profit motive in getting more eyeballs counts or readers than presenting hard data from objective sources like https://covidtracking.com/data.
  • JK
    John K.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:28
    Thank you ed ! You’re speaking the truth. During ww2 we lost 204 American bodies every single day,. That’s considered the bloodiest war in history. The American civil war we lost 504 Americans a day. The bloodiest American war in history. Yet somehow it is acceptable that we are currently losing 1,000+ bodies every day for the past 8-9 months. Preventable deaths! How! Please tell me how that is okay for anybody to say the economy is more important. This is absolutely ridiculous. The funny part is every personality on this channel is calling for a Sweden approach from America, the problem is culturally we are not Sweden. We do not listen to common sense in this country. If you look at Sweden mobility data they’ve been behaving similar to their European neighbors and Asian countries who enforced lockdowns. Sweden actually believes in science as a whole. Americans do not care. Let’s be honest we took the Sweden route after lockdowns lifted back in April/May. Look what happened! We have been averaging a 1,000 deaths a day since then and are spiking straight back up with national leadership saying we’re going to do nothing. No mask mandates nothing. You wanna look at countries that were super effective? Let’s look at Asia. They locked down once and did it right so they can focus on contact tracing small clusters and people can live normal lives. America dropped the ball point blank period and it’s going to cost a lot of families their loved ones. Lol mike green and that other guy stating that losing more people per day than America’s bloodiest war is just the cost of doing business. It’s gross. Honestly. The only person to be mad at is the leader of our nation.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:03
    Still trying to know what other cryptos Ash owns. I brought this up yesterday and think it's a fair question. You are a lead in the crypto division with RV. What are you holding and why?
    • MD
      Matt D.
      29 October 2020 @ 03:18
      I don't know if that is something he needs to tell. Its up to him in my opinion (whether he tells). I believe he objective in how he presents everything.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:54
    Remi tweeted out today a large number of charts showing COVID-19 spikes in many European countries. I'd be interested to hear if others agree, but I think that Europe's challenges with COVID-19 would result in a lower Euro and a higher USD? I think a higher USD is the last thing the U.S. and others need right now.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:29
    The calculus is difficult because policy decisions are distorted because of politics. Ed is correct we will have a lot more deaths... There is no possible herd immunity. Historical data from every other at scale health event base on R values show herd immunity required is > 80%. That is literally impossible.
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:57
    Ash, what is the name of that "not exchnage traded" vehicle? Thank you
    • SS
      Steven S.
      29 October 2020 @ 02:03
      I'd guess it's GBTC
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:06
    If Ash doesn’t stack some sats by Friday he’s gonna have a hard time!!
    • JS
      Jeremy S.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:59
      Shocked Ash doesn't hold any of his own bitcoin...
  • KT
    Ken T.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:52
    Ash - Your crypto interviews are outstanding. Now go purchase some bitcoin and a hard wallet!!
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:51
    If you're a taxpayer... the best thing that can happen is a divided government. Less government is always preferable to more government. (unless you live in the DC area and benefit greatly from the trillions floating around your backyard) .....ED?
  • SS
    Steven S.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:37
    You hit the nail on the head, Ash. When it becomes a matter of politics rather than data, everyone suffers and the economy tanks. I, for one, am utterly sick of the extreme, dogmatic tribalism on both sides. It's ridiculous. Who in their right mind continually agrees with 100% of positions on either the right or the left? In my view, it's a failure of our education system to impart critical thinking skills.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:33
    Another excellent RVDB. Just a couple of points of clarification: 1) we are much better at treating COVID, but deaths lag infections, and 2) we do sequence SARS2 and have a reasonably good understanding of which variants exist in the population. You're correct, Ed, we will have a very large number of deaths over the winter. The recent work that's been done in this area estimate a total of between 300K-1M deaths in the US through March. It was predictable in January and policy blunders clearly allowed this to happen to a large extent. Of course, it's much more difficult to institute lockdowns in the US and mask/social distancing mandates are ineffective in some regions of the US due to noncompliance.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:23
    The average age of people who have died in the US from the virus is 78, and 94% of deaths involve comorbidity. In other words, old people with existing health problems account for almost all of the fatalities. Take aggressive measures to protect this vulnerable cohort and leave the rest of the population free to engage in all the activities necessary to support the economy and stop the insanity in fiscal and monetary policies.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:19
      If you've not already signed the Great Barrington Convention, you should definitely consider doing so as it pretty much represents the focussed protection approach.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:26
      I make the argument it is about hospitalizations and not deaths. If hospitals become full, as they are doing in Tennessee and some other states, health officials are not going to stand back and say "average age is 78 and 94% comorbidity" so let the pandemic run. They will start to close things up (as this is their job to protect the public) so the disease doesn't overwhelm the hospital system. I am surprised that people have not realized this yet and keep arguing death statistics. Full hospitals = business closures = declining economy = layoffs. This cycle will continue until policies are put in place like uniform mask wearing (which has worked in Asia) and citizens following the rules like social distancing so that people can do business thus staying in business without the health department being forced to step in. As the widely quoted head of infectious disease at Vanderbilt just stated to the general public, "stop whining and put on your masks".
  • BB
    Bob B.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:54
    There will be more deaths - Dah! Without scale and context that is a meaningless/spin doctoring statement. Several million Americans pass every year! How about some meaningful data like healthcare worker and hospital stress levels in seasonal context, hospital capacity, serologic levels,... Broad brush statements are a waste of followers time.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 October 2020 @ 01:15
      Can give you one. Nashville now has 5% hospital capacity available having crossed the red line of 20%. So network is getting stressed and haven't hit the cold weather yet.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    29 October 2020 @ 01:11
    I wish that I could give this RVBD two thumbs up. Like Ed, I see increasing cases along with more hospitalizations and, ultimately, a greater death toll. Too many people are looking through this pandemic thinking that the COVID 19 virus is little more than a seasonal illness. Unfortunately, the odds are that the virus will have a much greater health impact than some suspect. I believe that Raoul is correct and people will change their consumption behavior with or without government intervention. This behavioral change will have a broad impact on the economy that may not be fully appreciated or priced into the market. In the book The Lords of Finance it was shown that the Great Depression was primarily the result of monetary policy errors made by central bankers. This time around, I fear that the policy error will be fiscal in nature. The inability of Congress and the President to agree to a “stimulus” package and get help to the people and businesses on Main Street will, in my opinion, result in a growing economic pain that can’t be solved by the actions of the Fed. This is one of the reasons that Jay Powell was pleading to Congress to inject money into the economy. The coming winter will show us whether this fiscal policy error will result in a much deeper recession/depression than market participants are expecting.
  • YL
    Yuri L.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:34
    Not sure hard lockdowns are the answer. I’m in Argentina where we have had a hard lockdown since March until now, and we have already surpassed Sweden in deaths per million and case counts are through the roof. The agony seems to be delayer AND taking longer, the peak is lasting a lot longer than in Sweden and it seems to be far from over.
    • YL
      Yuri L.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:36
      Plus almost 50% of the country is living below the poverty now due to business insolvencies etc.
  • DT
    David T.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:06
    Hysteria is not a best way to describe hundreds of thousands of dead people in a few months.
    • CA
      Cris A.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:18
      tell that to Tony , he's repeating trump lines . i want to give him more credit but really ,,,
    • DT
      David T.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:28
      Cris, it applies to both, really.
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:27
    Clearly and emphatically stated, Ed. Thank you
  • VR
    Vladimir R.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:18
    You guys are awesome! Well done. Let's hope for a market pump tomorrow. Today was a bummer.
  • CA
    Cris A.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:11
    who in the world is giving thumbs down to these discussions ? common guys, there is a lot of great info here
    • DS
      David S.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:17
      A lot of great FREE info here....FIFY
  • GS
    GEORGE S.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:17
    The US has never got past the first wave, its been a single wave with ever increasing crests
  • DT
    David T.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:16
    Dollar move was more important to talk today then BTC. Market went down and dollar went up.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:05
    You guys are awesome. Great discussion.
  • KP
    Kaushal P.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:53
    Anyone else think bear market started Sep2 and no one realizes it? Almost everyone still thinks going up from here and are very complacent about it. Things seem eerily calm even the selloff seems very organized.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:50
    Amen Ed 12 minute mark
  • MR
    Michael R.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:46
    Just realized the ultra high quality of your remote broadcast content. May I ask what platform or technology do you use?
  • ss
    sam s.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:46
    Ash, you said, “your analysis “ at 17:50. Be careful with that phrase. Had my 9th grade, locker room self laughing out loud.😂
  • BH
    Bradley H.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:45
    Tried, but couldn't watch this one to the end; punched out with 5 minutes to go. It should be titled the Zombie Apocalypse. Only two viewpoints are presented in this episode: one marinated in DC politics, the other basted with NYC negativity. Not your best cooking guys.
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:43
    Ed, great analysis.
  • WT
    William T.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:29
    Very good discussion fellas
  • SP
    Simon P.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:24
    Remember the words; we will make everything it takes, we let the economy runs hot.....is it bear
  • DM
    Don M.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:08
    Jeez Ash, complain about the politics yet keep trotting out Tony Greer with is "analysis" shaped around politics - I mean come on, Twitter doing well means Trump is winning???? - now you complain about the politics of analysis?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 October 2020 @ 23:14
      It’s not Ash though. We need Tony to add balance. He has a trader’s mentality and he has a non-consensus view about markets right now. I appreciate hearing it.
  • JD
    John D.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:10
    Best video yet and thoroughly enjoyed the discussion!
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:09
    Ash here is my Ledger Nano code please buy one be safe and thanks http://ledger.refr.cc/ernestorachitoff
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    28 October 2020 @ 22:42
    Great Show!