Comments
Transcript
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MOI work at one of those urgent cares with a line of people wrapped around the building. The most frustrating part is triaging between people who are actually sick and people who have very mild symptoms and think they might be sick. I understand though. Nobody wants to give COVID to there grandparents. Glad I found Real Vision. It is always an interesting watch. Seems like the SHA-256 algorithm has a better track record than the Fed. ;)
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rmSounds like buying opportunities for the next 6 weeks. Going all in. "Pandemics are temporary, not permanent. Even if a vaccine never arrives, the virus will burn out in time. There’s a 100% certainty a multi-trillion-dollar package will pass the US Congress, whether it’s before or after the vote. CBs will continue to do what our guys pledged today – keep rates crashed and hold the taps open with billions in quantitative easing (QE). The combo of this fiscal and monetary stimulus will keep the lights on and markets supported until the bug departs." GT
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SLEd, you're getting a little carried away. The American death stats are extremely suspect. Hospitals had to shut down and cancel all surgeries and were then, on the brink of bankruptcy, were given an incentive (almost $50k) to report deaths as covid deaths. There's no good data on age and comorbidities but what we do have indicates this isn't dangerous for the vast majority of the population. We could spend in an extreme way on vulnerable populations and it wouldn't come near the cost of lockdowns. There's no indication that there's going to be an exponential rise in deaths and hospitalizations without a lockdown. Further, if there were, people are smart enough to stop going out on their own and don't need gov't mandated lockdowns. So many people forget that the gov't didn't mandate the first lockdowns, people stopped going out AND THEN then gov't locked down so it looked like they were doing something for political reasons. Small business booking data preceded gov't action. There's a lot of conflicting evidence about the best way to handle this and I hope you'll reconsider the idea that gov't inaction will lead to more deaths. There's no definitive proof of this and it enables dangerous levels of authoritarian power grabs. If you ever find yourself thinking 'people are stupid and the government knows better' then slap yourself in the face and understand how deeply deeply wrong you are. Our synthesis of democracy and free markets is an extremely sophisticated form of decentralized decision making. The nature of it is that we risk some people being wrong but this messy clash of ideas helps us get at the truth faster than we otherwise would and makes errors less catastrophic. The idea that we should give total control to experts (or you) is extremely dangerous. No one is smarter than everyone and even if they were, there's no way to know who that person is ahead of time.
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PWI respect Ed and appreciate hearing his insights, but in this case a little more humility on predicting the course of the pandemic would have been nice. No credit for predicting a second wave, pretty much every epidemiologist at the time was predicting the same. I do remember, however, Ed telling us late spring/early summer that Europe had handled the pandemic much better than the US and that European stocks would therefore perform much better. There is much we still don't know about the ongoing pandemic, and predicting what will happen in the future is problematic at best.
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JFKeep up the good work! Great review Ash and Ed.
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LBGreat breakdown. The daily show has really kept me going and been very helpful throughout the pandemic. Thanks much.
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ATAmerica will shutdown for sure...the odds are way in favour of it....When Europe was shutting down before everyone said America wouldn't because they didn't have the cases...then they did and they did...why wouldn't they this time when the same thing is happening?? Ofcourse they'll shutdown again as the cases and deaths will rise greatly...history may not always repeat, but this will undoubtedly, and it makes sense to...especially if Biden wins...
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mwVery odd that people make it political. If Covid-19 was never made into a partisan dispute, it likely would have far less of an effect on the economy.
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MTI'd like to add a comment regarding yesterdays price action, in advance I have nothing to say on Covid, Trump, Biden, Stimulus, Fed, or looking for an Oracle that can predict the future. Yesterday presented some really good opportunties to establish new positions and it took less than 10 mins in total to identify and establish. My point in placing this post whilst probably a poor attempt, is to try and show there is no need to get into the weeds of News, Pandemics, Politics, or paying for highly expensive newsletters to your favourite Market Oracle. There is a much faster method of finding good opportunities. Yesterday at one point the VIX got above 40. A quick glance of a longer term chart of the VIX will confirm that since 2002 there have only been 8 volatility clusters of time in 18 years when the VIX has been higher than 40, put simply VIX at 40 does not happen very often. Of course it can go higher e.g. March 18th 2020 but VIX above 40 is rare and VIX above 40 means Options premiums were relatively expensive, which in turn means yesterday presented a good opportunity to establish NEW short premium, short volatility positions. There is of course no certaintly the VIX will decline there is never certaintly in this world but I like the odds, the probabilities (not the certainties) are attractive. My next step, scan for stocks than have Options with optimal liquidity. The further filter for stocks whose price range is in my Comfort zone relative to my total Capital such that if the position goes against me, and most will experience large EXTRINSIC losses at some point over the life of a position, I'm not sweating on being assigned or 'feeling' the need to panic exit. If I keep the positions small (small means different things to different people) then I'm best placed to let the mathmatics and statistics play out over time. The majority of the NEW Short premium positions in the December 18 Monthly cycle i.e. 51 days to expiry I entered yesterday were UNDEFINED RISK. Why undefined I hear many say, because undefined positions have significantly more flexiblity to adjust e.g. roll up, roll down, roll out all the while collecting more $ credits. As soon as a short premium strategy includes a protective long strike to limit losses aka defined risk strategies it should be noted that defined risk is statistically most likely to get to max loss much quicker than undefined risk. A word of caution, the aforementioned outline of short premium trading is not a short journey to learn. Typically it takes maybe two years to become an averagely competent. I'll not be expecting many positive reactions as since day one of RV there has never been even one speaker articulating the benefits of Short Volatility Option trading.
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MFWhere did the idea that the Covid-19 is mutating to be less deadly come from???? Just stunning - Death rate is dropping because we are better at taking care of folks with the disease.
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SJDr. Ed seems to forget that medical therapies have evolved relative to March, as has behaviors. The highest-risk populations have been self-isolating. Time-stamp it. 🙄
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JMSo a trump win isn't priced in. What does that mean to market IF trump wins?
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HSJust got to add I could really sense the urgency/excitment/panic in today's broadcast. More energy than most of previous RVDB episodes. Does it epitomise markets?
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GVYou're forgetting the obvious 3rd choice on Covid. 2-4 week hard lockdown where nobody goes out and the cases get cut at the knees. Less economic and mental pain than doing what we're doing and far far shorter. These times don't have to continue.
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LLLooking forward to the live event Ash! Great conversation and insight in this briefing.
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PSEnjoyed and appreciated your commentary as always, guys. Just two quick thoughts: 1) I disagree with Ed's take on the status of the pandemic, but have great respect for his smarts and insight. That's why I really want to understand his perspective and would have liked to hear a bit more specifically what he sees coming. 2) As for Ash... I'm sure you've heard this a dozen times before, but "Not your keys, not your coins." :) It's not just about SoV, it's also about sovereignty in a wildly uncertain environment. See Raoul's interview w Kiril Sokoloff from Monday or others recently where he's touched on gold. Have been impressed by the number of really smart players who want to own physical. Same arguments apply, IMO.
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AMAsh, I have to admit that my jaw dropped when you mentioned not owning any actual BTC! But I suppose we owe you a break with all of the great work you've done in educating people on the crypto-future ahead.
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EKGuys this is maybe one of the best analyses I've heard about the likely future of the epidemic and the economic ramifications. I've been in public health for 30 years and I've been frustrated throughout this entire pandemic by the market's blindness to what I have felt was the obvious: that there is NO good news related to this pandemic. My feeling (and I hope I'm wrong) is just as Ed described. I also agree that divided government = really bad. I've not heard anybody else talk about this. Lastly, I fully agree that Ash needs to be long actual bitcoin! Whoa! Maybe the most shocking revelation I've heard in weeks! So sad. Keep up the good work guys!
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CMWhat’s an ATS product?
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DGHi Ed, I want to list some differences now verses the past in no particular order. 1. increased Vitamin C and D intake of the population. 2. Hospitals were increasing mortality rates by prioritizing staff safety over patient outcome. eg scheduled intubation if more than 6L O2 via nc is required, No Bipap or cipap, no nebs, No chest PT. The rational was emergent intubations and all of the mentioned treatments would increase the risk of staff infection. The vent has it's own risk and our actions at the time led to more patients ending up on a vent than what should have been the case. 3. Summer testing increases was a false 2nd wave. 4. Now you are seeing a the beginning of a real 2nd wave. that presents as having already reached the levels of the first wave because we do have more testing now than at any point during the first wave. 5. The most vulnerable population was at risk last winter prior to knowing it. That population, as well as other demographics already mitigates their behavior going in to this fall's flu/covid-19 season. e.g. mask, avoiding large gatherings, better hand washing, working from home, maximizing e-commerce, and forced unemployment. 6. More treatment weapons than last winter as well as an increased willingness to uses treatments that were avoided last season. 7. The possibility that some people who have partial or full immunity from exposure during the last 9 months. I think behavior may lead to a double dip recession but the death toll will not surpass the worst months of last season during any month this season in the US.
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DBAustralia and New Zealand ... yes .. we are islands .. but regardless still doing a much better job with Covid-19 than the empire in decline (USA in case u yanks missed that one) ... and yes .. we stopped importing cOVID-19 from USA a long time ago with travel bans ...
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acEd, I would like to hear your take on whether some of the sensationalized Covid fear coverage in main stream and social media is driven by profit motive in getting more eyeballs counts or readers than presenting hard data from objective sources like https://covidtracking.com/data.
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JKThank you ed ! You’re speaking the truth. During ww2 we lost 204 American bodies every single day,. That’s considered the bloodiest war in history. The American civil war we lost 504 Americans a day. The bloodiest American war in history. Yet somehow it is acceptable that we are currently losing 1,000+ bodies every day for the past 8-9 months. Preventable deaths! How! Please tell me how that is okay for anybody to say the economy is more important. This is absolutely ridiculous. The funny part is every personality on this channel is calling for a Sweden approach from America, the problem is culturally we are not Sweden. We do not listen to common sense in this country. If you look at Sweden mobility data they’ve been behaving similar to their European neighbors and Asian countries who enforced lockdowns. Sweden actually believes in science as a whole. Americans do not care. Let’s be honest we took the Sweden route after lockdowns lifted back in April/May. Look what happened! We have been averaging a 1,000 deaths a day since then and are spiking straight back up with national leadership saying we’re going to do nothing. No mask mandates nothing. You wanna look at countries that were super effective? Let’s look at Asia. They locked down once and did it right so they can focus on contact tracing small clusters and people can live normal lives. America dropped the ball point blank period and it’s going to cost a lot of families their loved ones. Lol mike green and that other guy stating that losing more people per day than America’s bloodiest war is just the cost of doing business. It’s gross. Honestly. The only person to be mad at is the leader of our nation.
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MSStill trying to know what other cryptos Ash owns. I brought this up yesterday and think it's a fair question. You are a lead in the crypto division with RV. What are you holding and why?
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BARemi tweeted out today a large number of charts showing COVID-19 spikes in many European countries. I'd be interested to hear if others agree, but I think that Europe's challenges with COVID-19 would result in a lower Euro and a higher USD? I think a higher USD is the last thing the U.S. and others need right now.
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TCThe calculus is difficult because policy decisions are distorted because of politics. Ed is correct we will have a lot more deaths... There is no possible herd immunity. Historical data from every other at scale health event base on R values show herd immunity required is > 80%. That is literally impossible.
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VNAsh, what is the name of that "not exchnage traded" vehicle? Thank you
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DRIf Ash doesn’t stack some sats by Friday he’s gonna have a hard time!!
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KTAsh - Your crypto interviews are outstanding. Now go purchase some bitcoin and a hard wallet!!
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PPIf you're a taxpayer... the best thing that can happen is a divided government. Less government is always preferable to more government. (unless you live in the DC area and benefit greatly from the trillions floating around your backyard) .....ED?
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SSYou hit the nail on the head, Ash. When it becomes a matter of politics rather than data, everyone suffers and the economy tanks. I, for one, am utterly sick of the extreme, dogmatic tribalism on both sides. It's ridiculous. Who in their right mind continually agrees with 100% of positions on either the right or the left? In my view, it's a failure of our education system to impart critical thinking skills.
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SSAnother excellent RVDB. Just a couple of points of clarification: 1) we are much better at treating COVID, but deaths lag infections, and 2) we do sequence SARS2 and have a reasonably good understanding of which variants exist in the population. You're correct, Ed, we will have a very large number of deaths over the winter. The recent work that's been done in this area estimate a total of between 300K-1M deaths in the US through March. It was predictable in January and policy blunders clearly allowed this to happen to a large extent. Of course, it's much more difficult to institute lockdowns in the US and mask/social distancing mandates are ineffective in some regions of the US due to noncompliance.
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SMThe average age of people who have died in the US from the virus is 78, and 94% of deaths involve comorbidity. In other words, old people with existing health problems account for almost all of the fatalities. Take aggressive measures to protect this vulnerable cohort and leave the rest of the population free to engage in all the activities necessary to support the economy and stop the insanity in fiscal and monetary policies.
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BBThere will be more deaths - Dah! Without scale and context that is a meaningless/spin doctoring statement. Several million Americans pass every year! How about some meaningful data like healthcare worker and hospital stress levels in seasonal context, hospital capacity, serologic levels,... Broad brush statements are a waste of followers time.
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PMI wish that I could give this RVBD two thumbs up. Like Ed, I see increasing cases along with more hospitalizations and, ultimately, a greater death toll. Too many people are looking through this pandemic thinking that the COVID 19 virus is little more than a seasonal illness. Unfortunately, the odds are that the virus will have a much greater health impact than some suspect. I believe that Raoul is correct and people will change their consumption behavior with or without government intervention. This behavioral change will have a broad impact on the economy that may not be fully appreciated or priced into the market. In the book The Lords of Finance it was shown that the Great Depression was primarily the result of monetary policy errors made by central bankers. This time around, I fear that the policy error will be fiscal in nature. The inability of Congress and the President to agree to a “stimulus” package and get help to the people and businesses on Main Street will, in my opinion, result in a growing economic pain that can’t be solved by the actions of the Fed. This is one of the reasons that Jay Powell was pleading to Congress to inject money into the economy. The coming winter will show us whether this fiscal policy error will result in a much deeper recession/depression than market participants are expecting.
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YLNot sure hard lockdowns are the answer. I’m in Argentina where we have had a hard lockdown since March until now, and we have already surpassed Sweden in deaths per million and case counts are through the roof. The agony seems to be delayer AND taking longer, the peak is lasting a lot longer than in Sweden and it seems to be far from over.
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DTHysteria is not a best way to describe hundreds of thousands of dead people in a few months.
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ADClearly and emphatically stated, Ed. Thank you
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VRYou guys are awesome! Well done. Let's hope for a market pump tomorrow. Today was a bummer.
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CAwho in the world is giving thumbs down to these discussions ? common guys, there is a lot of great info here
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GSThe US has never got past the first wave, its been a single wave with ever increasing crests
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DTDollar move was more important to talk today then BTC. Market went down and dollar went up.
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MRYou guys are awesome. Great discussion.
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KPAnyone else think bear market started Sep2 and no one realizes it? Almost everyone still thinks going up from here and are very complacent about it. Things seem eerily calm even the selloff seems very organized.
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SLAmen Ed 12 minute mark
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MRJust realized the ultra high quality of your remote broadcast content. May I ask what platform or technology do you use?
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ssAsh, you said, “your analysis “ at 17:50. Be careful with that phrase. Had my 9th grade, locker room self laughing out loud.😂
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BHTried, but couldn't watch this one to the end; punched out with 5 minutes to go. It should be titled the Zombie Apocalypse. Only two viewpoints are presented in this episode: one marinated in DC politics, the other basted with NYC negativity. Not your best cooking guys.
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SBEd, great analysis.
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WTVery good discussion fellas
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SPRemember the words; we will make everything it takes, we let the economy runs hot.....is it bear
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DMJeez Ash, complain about the politics yet keep trotting out Tony Greer with is "analysis" shaped around politics - I mean come on, Twitter doing well means Trump is winning???? - now you complain about the politics of analysis?
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JDBest video yet and thoroughly enjoyed the discussion!
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ERAsh here is my Ledger Nano code please buy one be safe and thanks http://ledger.refr.cc/ernestorachitoff
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ABGreat Show!