Comments
Transcript
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DANo, no, no! Please don't turn the Daily Briefing into a series of guests with a product to sell and giving us their predictions and advice. The value of the briefing is to have an intelligent dive into topical issues focussing on evidence. Ed and Roger Hirsch consistently hit the spot. Peter Boockvar is interesting too (yes, he has a newsletter, but I make an exception for him). But this? I heard nothing to suggest there was any wisdom or insight here. I'm pleased to see Hayley is finding her feet. A very good summary today. .
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APThat is a lot of screens!
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PW37 year.......37 years.......37 years yep..... netflix up, amazon up ..yep new xbox coming out 5G yep....37 years..... yep...... this guy is a bleeding muppit..... what a waste of time.
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DSThe GDP increase is 90% the result of US stimulus. DLS
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ROAs a contrast to this interview you might want to try to get Keith McCullough from Hedgeye to do a daily briefing. It would contrast "feelings" with "facts".
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HBShould know the facts: past 75 years: under Democrat presidents: SP average is +14%; under Republican: +9%. These conventional wisdom bromides are somewhere between useless and misleading.
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DBRVDB channels CNBC -- or worse, Fox Business. Subscribers to RVDB know the markets don't like uncertainty. This was the basic message from this interview. Ed asked questions to draw out deeper answers, and he was wise to cut off the interview in less than 30 minutes. Strikeout! (Sorry Ed, I don't have a soccer -- I mean football -- metaphor.)
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IMGreat questions Ed , but next time we get a day trader , would like to also know what is the time horizon of his trading outlook - bullish on tech growth stocks. You also did not ask about what kind of signaling he uses, something i had heard asked in previous interview. An aside : I believe traders love uncertainty as that begets volatility that creates opportunities. Believe you should have prodded a bit more on that one. Overall, good content. No need for a van Meter Explainer on this one! Love the transcript!!
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SBNot sure why there is so many down votes. He brought up some really good points, and I think he's spot on with the Technology sector. These companies are just growing and growing. It will be years before they are topped out. Unlike the dot.com bubble, these companies are making money hand over fist, not hyped up tech stocks with a headquarters located in a mini mall office
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GF"In my 37 years..." I didn't count how many times he repeated that, but I'm sure it was over a dozen times. Once is good, to let us know his qualification, but when it keeps getting repeated, it causes me to wonder if he has really learned much in those 37 years. I suspect that he really has learned a lot, but it's hard to glean the nuggets when he keeps mentioning his 37 years in the markets, over and over again. I don't like being critical, but I found very little of value in Steve's comments.
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TCThis Trump bias commentary is humorous, but not helpful. I have a four quadrant approach to election results. Any sane individual would approach it that way. If Trump is elected, we have a massive covid outbreak that is not contained, and in theory massive "stimulus" which is simply income replacement at an individual and corporate level which will eventually create a scenario that will be globally decided based on successes of various policies and the eroding power of the Fed in its consumption of treasuries... Just say'n.
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FDPlease do not dumb down the content.
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LBRight now, people still have a little bit of money left. They are spending that money (and their time) online. Amazon, Netflix, Facebook... all the tech stocks he mentioned are benefiting from the lockdown. Once the majority of people run out of money, or start to feel the squeeze, does he really think people are still going to be spending as much on Amazon, Netflix, and buying XBOXes? Does he really think companies are still going to spend money on Facebook advertisements...?
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TCWhere's Ash? Is it prepping for his live briefing with Raoul tomorrow?
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SPI don’t care about the garden variety news content. I’m here for things not covered on CNN, and for insight.
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scNot related to what was covered in today's Daily Briefing, but one of the most important news for today if you are interested in Bitcoin. Iran became the first nation to officially adopt use of Bitcoin as an international trading medium to circumvent the sanctions placed upon them by the U.S. Please read the article below. Do you think this is good or bad for Bitcoin? httpscryptopotato.comiran-becomes-first-country-to-use-bitcoin-as-a-medium-of-exchange
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KAWhy did you get her?)
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PDHe's gotta know what he's talking about I mean look at all those screens
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PPDivine sign we are at the bottom of the barrel....
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RPI enjoyed reading the comments more than listening to this interview.
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NLI thought I had lot of monitors.
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JAHonestly, this didn't tell me anything I couldn't get listening to Jim Cramer. I didn't see any real insight or view, just a guess on direction based on the election.
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ALNew drinking game for Friday, everytime you Ed/Ash say the word bifurcation on the daily briefing you have to drink, ha!
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FAThat was not very insightful. Buy the dip on big tech...ok thanks.
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VR“Look for extremes”... you mean, like oils being oversold? Or the bank sector being oversold? Aren’t these the extremes? All of his tech recs are essentially overbought... a hella crowded trade.
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DWBad, not up to standards
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PBWhat the heck is wrong with the long bonds.
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RMMy response to today's interview: 1. Markets trading based on uncertainty of Biden's tax plan. I find this suspect as his plan is well publicized and a number of articles are online that analyze his plan. Markets could end up not liking the plan, but the plan is out there to read. Also, market historians know it is a well debated topic the correlation of tax changes to economic growth. As an example, Biden's plan is not that different from the one Clinton passed in 1993 and the economy showed +4% real growth every quarter after his plan passed except for two (and those two were 2.6% and 3%). So clearly other factors impact economic growth than taxes. But don't believe this is what is driving the market today. 2. Market hoping for more tax cuts under Trump. Don't know about everyone else, but as a life long republican, do we really want to see more tax cuts that are 100% borrowed following a MMT path favored by Warren and Sanders? If we are not going to have corresponding spending cuts, then not sure how republicans can favor this MMT philosophy. People like to think tax cuts pay for themselves but that generally is not true and you will note that federal deficits have risen on major tax cuts in the past. But as Stephanie Kelton argued on RV recently, maybe spending deficits are not important. Plus, if Senate stays republican, no guarantee that they would pass additional tax cuts. Hard to see the House doing it. So I am not sure how higher deficits to pay for more tax cuts is good for the market as a number of well known economists (see Lacy Hunt and David Rosenberg) state that debts loads are a heavy blanket on economic growth. Don't see this being a factor in the markets today. 3. Buying FAANG stocks and other large cap tech stocks has become the couch potato strategy. Buying growth at any price doesn't seem like an original strategy, though it may certainly be the correct strategy in the short term. Wonder how many clients are paying him for this advice which every retail investor is following? 4. His closing advice, look for extremes. Not in valuations like banks and energy. Just copy the March strategy if market gets in an oversold condition. This is probably the game plan for most institutional and retail investors. There is always uncertainties in the market. Can't always wait for these to be resolved. The challenge is doing the second level thinking to determine how to position for market turns. Don't believe we heard that tonight. Maybe more focus on: 1. Will Covid lead to a second dip recession? Steve did talk about not buying banks, oil and airlines. But a second dip may not play the same in the market as the first dip in March. 2. As we near the end of forbearance, how will rising defaults (see Raoul's forecast) impact growth in first half of 2021. 3. As rate curve steepens, is market seeing stagflation versus the curve predicting strong economic growth? Know some stocks are trading down this due to concerns of long term rates rising while growth slows. Ed made the best comment of the night, chart is showing a double top. From a technical perspective, something to discuss. Didn't really land on that answer tonight.
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CMNot macro.
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JSOMG, Not taking a Vaccine that has completed phase 3 trails.... on what evidence??? Stop thinking about yourself and think about everyone else who can’t take a vaccine for health reasons. I understand your concern, but if you want a V shaped recovery, then be a citizen, do your part, and take the vaccine... I will be.
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PBNobody knows diddly on what's going to happen. All over the subscriptions and media I follow, no one knows. Even the leading quants have quieted down. People are so worried about tax increases. So what, most households could care less if taxes on corporations are raised. As far as my personal situation, I wish I was at the $400k threshold. I'd love to have the problem of making so much money I was worried about my taxes going up. I'll take the tax increase if we also get the $10T of stimulus at the same time. New Yorkers are too full of themselves and their navel-gazing concerns. I'm from Long Island. My family is from Queens. Glad I moved away after listening through half this show. I closed by browser tab.
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WTHow many years has he been in the markets?
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DTThis is the first time I see more thumbs down then up on a DB interview.
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DTThese is the second day of DBs that doesn't mention the dollar rally.
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JVAlthough I appreciate the guests insights - Passive indexation drives the new money into the market and no amount of political uncertainty will change that - His basis is from a value investors perspective - 401K / Pensions etc are mandated to push all the new money into the market. It's hedge funds and alike who have flexibility and they don't have enough skin in the game to drive the numbers he spoke of. Am I missing something here??
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RTOh! Oh! I wonder what Ed's political opinion will be? Can't wait!
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MJWell done Haley, much better enunciation today, keep it up
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TMWhy does this say the video was uploaded on the 28th?
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MCPretty conventional viewpoint...I quit the video with 10 min to go...just saying
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JLI have to say Haley is really improving! What a GDP number today...wow.