Daily Briefing – October 29, 2020

Published on
October 29th, 2020
Duration
25 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 29, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ed Harrison, and Steve Kalayjian

Published on: October 29th, 2020 • Duration: 25 minutes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, welcomes Stephen Kalayjian, chief market strategist of Ticker Tocker, to discuss the elevated levels of volatility and his forward outlook for markets over the coming months. With the U.S. election coming up in less than a week, Kalayjian describes how not only are markets are being worn down by the torrent of uncertainty surrounding policy outcomes with each respective administration, but also by how the sensitivity of this year's election and the events that will unfold in the coming weeks are keeping markets on edge with COVID-19 exacerbating tensions further. He explains where he sees the opportunities and downside risk in U.S. equities in light of these circumstances and why the perception of economic growth in large cap tech stocks will propel their prices up further for the rest of 2020 through the beginning of 2021. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the U.S. economy's record GDP growth, but explains the real obstacles going forward that will slow the recovery, perhaps severely.

Comments

Transcript

  • DA
    David A.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:35
    No, no, no! Please don't turn the Daily Briefing into a series of guests with a product to sell and giving us their predictions and advice. The value of the briefing is to have an intelligent dive into topical issues focussing on evidence. Ed and Roger Hirsch consistently hit the spot. Peter Boockvar is interesting too (yes, he has a newsletter, but I make an exception for him). But this? I heard nothing to suggest there was any wisdom or insight here. I'm pleased to see Hayley is finding her feet. A very good summary today. .
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      2 November 2020 @ 03:49
      Roger Hirst and RP are the only times I watch RVDB.
  • AP
    Alistair P.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:29
    That is a lot of screens!
    • BB
      Bob B.
      29 October 2020 @ 22:59
      Mostly blank?
    • PW
      Paul W.
      1 November 2020 @ 15:06
      I counted them........ guess how many ? 37.... I guess he got a new one every year....and just kept them all.......even the broken ones :)
  • PW
    Paul W.
    1 November 2020 @ 14:56
    37 year.......37 years.......37 years yep..... netflix up, amazon up ..yep new xbox coming out 5G yep....37 years..... yep...... this guy is a bleeding muppit..... what a waste of time.
  • DS
    David S.
    31 October 2020 @ 15:33
    The GDP increase is 90% the result of US stimulus. DLS
  • RO
    Robert O.
    31 October 2020 @ 04:55
    As a contrast to this interview you might want to try to get Keith McCullough from Hedgeye to do a daily briefing. It would contrast "feelings" with "facts".
  • HB
    Harvey B.
    30 October 2020 @ 21:36
    Should know the facts: past 75 years: under Democrat presidents: SP average is +14%; under Republican: +9%. These conventional wisdom bromides are somewhere between useless and misleading.
    • DC
      Daniel C.
      30 October 2020 @ 22:57
      Gamblers fallacy negates any possible conclusion from such stats, so yes you are right, they are useless. Worth noting this was under a capitalist model with the USD as the world's reserve currency. The future looks volatile.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    30 October 2020 @ 16:15
    RVDB channels CNBC -- or worse, Fox Business. Subscribers to RVDB know the markets don't like uncertainty. This was the basic message from this interview. Ed asked questions to draw out deeper answers, and he was wise to cut off the interview in less than 30 minutes. Strikeout! (Sorry Ed, I don't have a soccer -- I mean football -- metaphor.)
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    30 October 2020 @ 13:20
    Great questions Ed , but next time we get a day trader , would like to also know what is the time horizon of his trading outlook - bullish on tech growth stocks. You also did not ask about what kind of signaling he uses, something i had heard asked in previous interview. An aside : I believe traders love uncertainty as that begets volatility that creates opportunities. Believe you should have prodded a bit more on that one. Overall, good content. No need for a van Meter Explainer on this one! Love the transcript!!
  • SB
    Shawn B.
    30 October 2020 @ 05:32
    Not sure why there is so many down votes. He brought up some really good points, and I think he's spot on with the Technology sector. These companies are just growing and growing. It will be years before they are topped out. Unlike the dot.com bubble, these companies are making money hand over fist, not hyped up tech stocks with a headquarters located in a mini mall office
    • MT
      Mike T.
      30 October 2020 @ 07:37
      specifically which tech earnings calls (or read the transcripts) have you listened to this earnings season? I hope you have developed the habit of listening and then analysing the nuances of what was reported.
    • FL
      Fabrizio L.
      30 October 2020 @ 08:49
      sure, they are making money hand over fist, no question! its just a question of how much you pay for that cash flow by becoming a shareholder at these levels, and if the price you pay makes the risk reward interesting....
    • JA
      John A.
      30 October 2020 @ 13:18
      Their valuations are still priced to perfection. All of those earnings are being valued right now. If it wasn't for a total lack of alternative equities to go to, valuations wouldn't be this high. If we do get inflation, money is going to run towards stuff that does well during that part of the cycle and their valuations are going to come in relative terms to other sectors that have been beaten to hell. Mean reversion is real. The valid case for the company doing well doesn't mean the stock never adjusts to the gross number of opportunities out there. The COVID world we live in is already priced in. Even if you don't believe as I do (I think we get another deflation shock that is going to surprise people positioned for inflation ie I agree with Raul), then you should be positioning for 2021 and not chasing what has already been picked apart. Unless Tech finds or creates a new market, it is at best a hold right now. To me personally, it feels like a bag holding situation.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:29
    "In my 37 years..." I didn't count how many times he repeated that, but I'm sure it was over a dozen times. Once is good, to let us know his qualification, but when it keeps getting repeated, it causes me to wonder if he has really learned much in those 37 years. I suspect that he really has learned a lot, but it's hard to glean the nuggets when he keeps mentioning his 37 years in the markets, over and over again. I don't like being critical, but I found very little of value in Steve's comments.
    • MC
      Maria C.
      30 October 2020 @ 13:14
      Has he been in markets 37 years? ;)
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:27
    This Trump bias commentary is humorous, but not helpful. I have a four quadrant approach to election results. Any sane individual would approach it that way. If Trump is elected, we have a massive covid outbreak that is not contained, and in theory massive "stimulus" which is simply income replacement at an individual and corporate level which will eventually create a scenario that will be globally decided based on successes of various policies and the eroding power of the Fed in its consumption of treasuries... Just say'n.
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      30 October 2020 @ 12:47
      The thought you can contain a virus of such high levels of transport is laughable. Thankfully, it’s not very dangerous to those under age 70 who do not have existing co-morbidities. Carry on.
  • FD
    Frank D.
    30 October 2020 @ 10:42
    Please do not dumb down the content.
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    30 October 2020 @ 10:20
    Right now, people still have a little bit of money left. They are spending that money (and their time) online. Amazon, Netflix, Facebook... all the tech stocks he mentioned are benefiting from the lockdown. Once the majority of people run out of money, or start to feel the squeeze, does he really think people are still going to be spending as much on Amazon, Netflix, and buying XBOXes? Does he really think companies are still going to spend money on Facebook advertisements...?
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:09
    Where's Ash? Is it prepping for his live briefing with Raoul tomorrow?
    • VM
      Veliko M.
      30 October 2020 @ 01:30
      Buying some Bitcoin on the DL. That's why the prices is stable today.
    • AH
      Attila H.
      30 October 2020 @ 09:12
      Dying his hair
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    30 October 2020 @ 06:32
    I don’t care about the garden variety news content. I’m here for things not covered on CNN, and for insight.
  • sc
    sung c.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:54
    Not related to what was covered in today's Daily Briefing, but one of the most important news for today if you are interested in Bitcoin. Iran became the first nation to officially adopt use of Bitcoin as an international trading medium to circumvent the sanctions placed upon them by the U.S. Please read the article below. Do you think this is good or bad for Bitcoin? httpscryptopotato.comiran-becomes-first-country-to-use-bitcoin-as-a-medium-of-exchange
    • DT
      David T.
      29 October 2020 @ 23:33
      Now US may sanction Bitcoin if terrorists states start using it.
    • sc
      sung c.
      30 October 2020 @ 05:33
      David T. If US wants to sanction BTC, how exactly would they go about doing so?
  • KA
    Koka A.
    30 October 2020 @ 05:23
    Why did you get her?)
  • PD
    Paul D.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:33
    He's gotta know what he's talking about I mean look at all those screens
    • RA
      Robert A.
      30 October 2020 @ 03:02
      And 37 years
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    30 October 2020 @ 02:51
    Divine sign we are at the bottom of the barrel....
  • RP
    Rashad P.
    30 October 2020 @ 02:43
    I enjoyed reading the comments more than listening to this interview.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    30 October 2020 @ 02:25
    I thought I had lot of monitors.
  • JA
    John A.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:18
    Honestly, this didn't tell me anything I couldn't get listening to Jim Cramer. I didn't see any real insight or view, just a guess on direction based on the election.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:10
    New drinking game for Friday, everytime you Ed/Ash say the word bifurcation on the daily briefing you have to drink, ha!
  • FA
    Frank A.
    30 October 2020 @ 01:03
    That was not very insightful. Buy the dip on big tech...ok thanks.
  • VR
    Vladimir R.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:55
    “Look for extremes”... you mean, like oils being oversold? Or the bank sector being oversold? Aren’t these the extremes? All of his tech recs are essentially overbought... a hella crowded trade.
  • DW
    Derek W.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:41
    Bad, not up to standards
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:10
    What the heck is wrong with the long bonds.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 October 2020 @ 00:29
      As a subscriber to David Rosenberg's service, he argues that it is a short term issue and to stick with long duration bonds as rates will go lower. Sees it as a buying opportunity Lacy Hunt makes the same argument in his recently quarterly letter for Hoisington which you can read online (and highly recommend if you are investing in Treasuries).
  • RM
    Robert M.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:23
    My response to today's interview: 1. Markets trading based on uncertainty of Biden's tax plan. I find this suspect as his plan is well publicized and a number of articles are online that analyze his plan. Markets could end up not liking the plan, but the plan is out there to read. Also, market historians know it is a well debated topic the correlation of tax changes to economic growth. As an example, Biden's plan is not that different from the one Clinton passed in 1993 and the economy showed +4% real growth every quarter after his plan passed except for two (and those two were 2.6% and 3%). So clearly other factors impact economic growth than taxes. But don't believe this is what is driving the market today. 2. Market hoping for more tax cuts under Trump. Don't know about everyone else, but as a life long republican, do we really want to see more tax cuts that are 100% borrowed following a MMT path favored by Warren and Sanders? If we are not going to have corresponding spending cuts, then not sure how republicans can favor this MMT philosophy. People like to think tax cuts pay for themselves but that generally is not true and you will note that federal deficits have risen on major tax cuts in the past. But as Stephanie Kelton argued on RV recently, maybe spending deficits are not important. Plus, if Senate stays republican, no guarantee that they would pass additional tax cuts. Hard to see the House doing it. So I am not sure how higher deficits to pay for more tax cuts is good for the market as a number of well known economists (see Lacy Hunt and David Rosenberg) state that debts loads are a heavy blanket on economic growth. Don't see this being a factor in the markets today. 3. Buying FAANG stocks and other large cap tech stocks has become the couch potato strategy. Buying growth at any price doesn't seem like an original strategy, though it may certainly be the correct strategy in the short term. Wonder how many clients are paying him for this advice which every retail investor is following? 4. His closing advice, look for extremes. Not in valuations like banks and energy. Just copy the March strategy if market gets in an oversold condition. This is probably the game plan for most institutional and retail investors. There is always uncertainties in the market. Can't always wait for these to be resolved. The challenge is doing the second level thinking to determine how to position for market turns. Don't believe we heard that tonight. Maybe more focus on: 1. Will Covid lead to a second dip recession? Steve did talk about not buying banks, oil and airlines. But a second dip may not play the same in the market as the first dip in March. 2. As we near the end of forbearance, how will rising defaults (see Raoul's forecast) impact growth in first half of 2021. 3. As rate curve steepens, is market seeing stagflation versus the curve predicting strong economic growth? Know some stocks are trading down this due to concerns of long term rates rising while growth slows. Ed made the best comment of the night, chart is showing a double top. From a technical perspective, something to discuss. Didn't really land on that answer tonight.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:19
    Not macro.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:11
    OMG, Not taking a Vaccine that has completed phase 3 trails.... on what evidence??? Stop thinking about yourself and think about everyone else who can’t take a vaccine for health reasons. I understand your concern, but if you want a V shaped recovery, then be a citizen, do your part, and take the vaccine... I will be.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:08
    Nobody knows diddly on what's going to happen. All over the subscriptions and media I follow, no one knows. Even the leading quants have quieted down. People are so worried about tax increases. So what, most households could care less if taxes on corporations are raised. As far as my personal situation, I wish I was at the $400k threshold. I'd love to have the problem of making so much money I was worried about my taxes going up. I'll take the tax increase if we also get the $10T of stimulus at the same time. New Yorkers are too full of themselves and their navel-gazing concerns. I'm from Long Island. My family is from Queens. Glad I moved away after listening through half this show. I closed by browser tab.
  • WT
    William T.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:19
    How many years has he been in the markets?
    • DT
      David T.
      29 October 2020 @ 23:31
      :)) :))
  • DT
    David T.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:29
    This is the first time I see more thumbs down then up on a DB interview.
  • DT
    David T.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:26
    These is the second day of DBs that doesn't mention the dollar rally.
  • JV
    Jerry V.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:16
    Although I appreciate the guests insights - Passive indexation drives the new money into the market and no amount of political uncertainty will change that - His basis is from a value investors perspective - 401K / Pensions etc are mandated to push all the new money into the market. It's hedge funds and alike who have flexibility and they don't have enough skin in the game to drive the numbers he spoke of. Am I missing something here??
  • RT
    Richard T.
    29 October 2020 @ 23:14
    Oh! Oh! I wonder what Ed's political opinion will be? Can't wait!
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:43
    Well done Haley, much better enunciation today, keep it up
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:38
    Why does this say the video was uploaded on the 28th?
  • MC
    Michael C.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:36
    Pretty conventional viewpoint...I quit the video with 10 min to go...just saying
  • JL
    Jason L.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:10
    I have to say Haley is really improving! What a GDP number today...wow.