Daily Briefing – October 30, 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
October 30th, 2020
Duration
50 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 30, 2020 (LIVE)

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Raoul Pal

Published on: October 30th, 2020 • Duration: 50 minutes

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from Ash and Raoul live at 4:30 PM ET. Raoul will provide an update on his macro thesis, trades he's bullish on, and answer questions from the audience. Raoul and Ash will also break down bitcoin’s recent rally, and provide greater insight on the Real Vision crypto tier.

Comments

Transcript

  • GG
    Guilherme G.
    1 November 2020 @ 13:25
    Hi Ash, could you point me to content that teaches how to buy bitcoin? I know there's coinbase and other exchanges. But I want the keys, stored in a secure device (welcome suggestions). Thanks in advance.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      1 November 2020 @ 15:59
      Have a look at trezor for cold storage.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      2 November 2020 @ 02:08
      Seconded for Trezor. It’s code is open source which allows it to be scrutinized for bugs/hacking opportunities, much like Bitcoin.
    • PQ
      Paul Q.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:42
      I'd also look at the Ledger nano for personal hard wallet storage. For larger amounts of portfolios I'd suggest digital custody solutions like Liberado.io* There are other digital asset custody firms as well. (*disclosure: We have financial holdings in this firm).
  • rR
    rafal R.
    2 November 2020 @ 00:29
    Why you are you taking cases into consideration? cases mean sh1t. Number of deaths is the only number you can trust.
    • sc
      sung c.
      2 November 2020 @ 04:16
      Number of deaths can not be trusted either. They are tainted and confused by the fact that many are dying from other causes and being all wrapped into the Covid19 blame.
    • PQ
      Paul Q.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:38
      Deaths are a lagging indicator. If you look at the cases, the actual cases (autopsies) - not the newscasts - so that means the clinical papers and clinical summaries - you see that covid infections accelerate comorbidity. (Age, obesity, diabetes and underlying respiratory disease). Early in the pandemic - China/ Northern Italy (2019) and in the Europe/US in (Feb-April,2020) you saw severe respiratory collapse - this was due to a "cytokine storm" where the overwhelmed immune system actually turned on itself and there was rapid respiratory collapse. So cases mean a lot - for they lead us to trends. Cases and contact tracing also allowed us to reverse engineer the infection patterns. Patterns allow community/country overlays - and aide public health as well as resource allocations - all from cases. So while I understand your statement - I have to disagree because - if dismissed - it removed a key component of the entire analysis.
  • SK
    Sergejs K.
    2 November 2020 @ 15:38
    If you are not trading your thesis, you don't have skin in the game, and you should not be taken seriously.
  • sc
    sung c.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:46
    As to the pro vs. con discussions regarding Bitcoin in the commentaries below, it's quite simple: put your money where your mouth is. If you're "con" bitcoin, then just short it. If you haven't done that, then you don't truly believe in what you are stating. If you're "pro" bitcoin, then buy some BTC. Again, if you haven't, then you don't truly believe in what you are stating either. Now certainly one can trade it short term, with a bull or bear bias temporarily, to make money, but you have to decide which camp you really are in. So I say once again, put your money where your mouth is.
  • sc
    sung c.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:46
    As to the pro vs. con discussions regarding Bitcoin in the commentaries below, it's quite simple: put your money where your mouth is. If you're "con" bitcoin, then just short it. If you haven't done that, then you don't truly believe in what you are stating. If you're "pro" bitcoin, then buy some BTC. Again, if you haven't, then you don't truly believe in what you are stating either. Now certainly one can trade it short term, with a bull or bear bias temporarily, to make money, but you have to decide which camp you really are in. So I say once again, put your money where your mouth is.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    31 October 2020 @ 19:05
    Raul, this recession was entirely man made. Everything was stopped because the government and commentators created a panic. As soon as the panic is over, the people go back to work. We now know how to protect our old people at risk, but we also know that young people are almost not affected by this virus at all. No one is afraid of this virus, and we have a very low mortality rate. We have better treatments, vaccines and we know better how to manage. No panic. The economy is coming back. Old people who are already sick are not much of the economy anyway.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 October 2020 @ 21:10
      I guess you are correct. No one is afraid of the virus. They go on holiday, they go to motorcycle rallies, they go to bars all night. I am glad the spikes in the US and Europe will have no ill health effects. Asia did it right. Look at Taiwan. They recognized the enemy.. Lots of testing, tracking, and tracing. Mandatory supervised quarantine. No lockdown and ten deaths. We just are not as good as they are about defeating the virus. After all it is just a flu. An RNA molecule without any intelligence. I guess that means we have a negative health IQ. DLS
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      31 October 2020 @ 21:26
      Entirely man made over the course of the last decade or even half century..
    • PW
      Paul W.
      1 November 2020 @ 14:04
      "we also know that young people are almost not affected by this virus at all." mmmm really ? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-left-doctor-23-in-icu-wondering-would-i-die-1.4378998
    • DM
      Don M.
      1 November 2020 @ 17:49
      Sid you forgot to mention that it would "magically disappear. Like magic"
    • RM
      Robert M.
      2 November 2020 @ 03:02
      WSJ just had an article about the long term effects impacting some young people who now regret catching the disease. I know people who were still working that died from Covid and were not sick previously. So disagree with several statements. But what most people don't understand is that when hospitals fill up, health department will shut biz down. And this will keep happening over and over again until either the disease evolves, an effective vaccine is developed (and people take it), or people start doing the right thing. Otherwise people can argue all day about old people and death rates and it will continue to go unheeded by authorities.
  • TK
    Thomas K.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:35
    Can we read the comments anymore?
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    30 October 2020 @ 20:55
    Would be interesting to see RV look at Ant Group with an expert before the upcoming IPO - only the world’s largest of all time. Thanks
    • CC
      CCosta C.
      31 October 2020 @ 09:18
      Now we taking, agree
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 November 2020 @ 01:39
      For people interested in the Chinese markets (mostly tech, a lot of shorts related analysis, e-commerce, marketing), I recommend Michael Norris (@briefnorris) - he could also be a good candidate for this interview, he's on the ground in Shanghai, living his analysis daily (and not a Boomer).
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    31 October 2020 @ 05:50
    Raoul? How much of your reach (thru RV) do you think affects the bitcoin price? Is the RV community significant in terms of market swings? Thanks!
    • DM
      David M.
      31 October 2020 @ 13:43
      Nah
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 November 2020 @ 01:35
      Maybe not ...but certainly was enough to use The Gathering to launch Galaxy Digital (TSX:GLXY)'s rocket to the Moon :)
  • VB
    Vincent B.
    1 November 2020 @ 02:14
    Hail Bitcoin! I think we have all heard it. I understand the thesis and am overallocated to it too, but am getting increasingly worried about the hype Raoul makes for it. Don't feel like RV is critical enough and keeps challenging their ideas. Great, so it made over 1% while stocks went down on Friday, also has crazy volatility, nor a 100 year proven profit generating business model, track record, and predictability many stocks have. This thing can be outlawed within months if the wind blows the wrong way and has risks to it we simply don't understand yet, warranting a significantly higher risk premium. I wish a lot of comments would get more scrutinised by the interviewers (not just here) - they are one of the few in this business who have the capacity to do so! Stay critical, especially when you think you'll never be wrong on this one!
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 November 2020 @ 01:34
      I felt this for a while, it's not just in crypto/BTC that RV needs more critical voices to keep things in check (gold is a good example and Max agreed to try to bring some more bearish voices). The crypto tier is by far the worst (like a less Adderall-fueled version of Ivan On Tech's youtube channel), Plus is allright - on Pro things are getting increasingly bipolar (which is fine).
  • JH
    Jeff H.
    1 November 2020 @ 20:21
    yeah, a Highlander reference!
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    1 November 2020 @ 15:01
    Hey Raoul, you mentioned the COT positioning in 30y bonds, which is basically commercials ultra long. What do you make of the fact that commercials actually have a ultra bearish position (compared to their own history) in 10y notes?
  • MT
    Mike T.
    1 November 2020 @ 11:33
    fyi crypto folks this looks interesting check out website: thetie.io also twitter @TheTIEIO Crypto SigDev™ API The fastest way to stay informed about the most significant market moving events within cryptocurrency. Developed for quantitative modeling, discretionary event-driven investing, risk monitoring, and more from their home page: Crypto SigDev™ Terminal is the fastest and most comprehensive platform for monitoring the rapidly changing and global cryptocurrency market. SigDev helps the leading cryptocurrency publications, hedge funds, exchanges, token issuers, research firms, and market participants track the most critical developments in the space. With SigDev, clients can receive real-time feeds on the most significant market-moving events including exchange listings, crypto-related SEC filings, court cases, partnerships, regulatory rulings, central bank announcements, and M&A activity. Features and Benefits Customizable: Select from over a dozen parameters including source or publication type, language, relevant asset, and type of significant development. Intelligent: Our NLP engine solves for complex language processing issues, assessing relevancy of headlines and removing up to 99% of irrelevant headlines. Comprehensive: The TIE's Crypto SigDev™ analyzes mainstream, cryptocurrency, financial, and other publications to identify relevant headlines. In addition, the feed also sources from notable Twitter accounts and individual outreach mechanisms of cryptocurrency foundations themselves including Mediums and blogs. Coverage includes both English and Chinese headlines.
  • JF
    Jean F.
    1 November 2020 @ 04:03
    Central banks will never forfeit control over monetary policy to Bitcoin, as that would affect their very sovereignty as Nations. Once Bitcoin becomes too big a threat in that regard, governments - via central banks - will ban Bitcoin conversion to fiat and its use in commercial transactions. At that point, Bitcoin will lose all value. Any CB tempted to go rogue and continue to "accept" Bitcoin conversions would be shut out of SWIFT. No CB will risk that. Banks are already saying they want to fight against cryptocurrencies. The writing's on the wall - via SCMP on Oct 27: "Mu Changchun head of the (PBOC) central bank’s digital currency research institute, said on Sunday at the Bund Summit in Shanghai that the DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment) will be allowed to circulate and be converted like physical banknotes and coins. “Its centralised management will be good to fight against cryptocurrencies and global stablecoins and prevent their erosion of currency-issuance rights,” he said. As RV itself has said, there is a rash of fiat digitalization underway, all of which are designed to keep control of monetary mass. These are a preamble to a shutdown of Bitcoin. To summarize, Bitcoin is nothing more than a tolerated (for now) fiat second derivative. CBs are telling us it will be choked off.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      1 November 2020 @ 05:28
      This is one potential outcome. The other is that corporates, governments, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds realize that they can also use Bitcoin to protect their wealth in the midst of a global race to the bottom in currency debasement. Therefore they tolerate it, because it protects *their* wealth as much as anybody else’s. You’re also massively underestimating the sentiment of Millennials and gen Zers who are sick of the status quo as power and control shifts from the boomers And gen Xers. Nobody will need to use SWIFT in 15-20 years.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 November 2020 @ 10:05
      Bitcoin will just be an other asset. No need to ban it. Even gold will not be banned. Just another asset. DLS
  • RK
    Roger K.
    1 November 2020 @ 09:11
    UK sold all its' gold reserve and created Bitcoin. Bitcoin came out from the UK , like so many things.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 November 2020 @ 10:01
      The UK has 18.8 billion $US in gold reserves as of 9/20. DLS
  • RK
    Roger K.
    1 November 2020 @ 09:03
    Crypto only correlated to #thether
  • SN
    Shonan N.
    1 November 2020 @ 00:54
    Why is bitcoin specifically the call option on the digitalization of CB currencies? Is that because it is the most widely accepted digital currency today? Is there any other reason that I am missing?
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      1 November 2020 @ 05:30
      It has an absolute digital scarcity, no known corruptible figurehead/founder plus a huge network effect as the first.
  • RI
    R I.
    1 November 2020 @ 02:51
    Where are the comments?
  • NM
    Nicholas M.
    31 October 2020 @ 23:09
    If we have the same setup as Feb, do crypto and gold react the same way in a significant drop in s&p500 short term or are investors positioned to buy at current prices?
  • DS
    David S.
    31 October 2020 @ 21:22
    As we enter the insolvency phase a lot more money will need to be withdrawn from saving including 401K and IRA accounts. Probably more older investors will withdraw bond money since it is close to cash anyway. Younger investors will need to sell stocks as more of their portfolios are in stock. For those no longer working, money will not be deducted and invested. I am not sure of the balance, but there will be a change in money flows into the markets. DLS
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    31 October 2020 @ 17:42
    Insane content, you both are amazing!
  • WT
    WILLIAM T.
    31 October 2020 @ 10:59
    What is outpacing BTC's valuation? Some altcoins like Quant Networks (QNT). Look at QNTBTC 1 day chart on https://www.tradingview.com/chart/93n4J9AK/
    • GT
      Gene T.
      31 October 2020 @ 16:47
      He means real asset classes that hedge funds and pension funds can invest in, not some tiny mouse fart with a market cap below $200M.
    • WT
      WILLIAM T.
      31 October 2020 @ 17:08
      I'll remind you of that when QNT reaches #3 in marketcap in a few years. LOL
  • MH
    MICHAEL H.
    31 October 2020 @ 04:57
    The fallacy of Covid is that - despite Cases rising (more testing & 2nd wave), Fatalities are falling. IMO the whole world should be back at work (and school).
    • RK
      Rafal K.
      31 October 2020 @ 05:00
      Agree, while the 'COVID is killing the world' narrative is strong, the potency of that narrative is wearing thin.. The economic lockdown is not justified
    • GT
      Gene T.
      31 October 2020 @ 17:02
      Raoul has said a million times that what's important from a macro perspective is not wave 1 vs. wave 2 etc., but how people behave. Even though the airline industry has been open for business since April/May, it continues to suffer because people perceive travel to be an unnecessary risk, not because of any government restrictions. Now multiply this across dozens of other industries. Regardless of what YOU think the work/school policies should be, a huge percent of people are going to continue to stay home. That's what's important to a macro outlook.
  • MH
    MICHAEL H.
    31 October 2020 @ 05:42
    18 month recession(?) - I think Raoul is very optimistic! Ash hits the spot (Covid) - Fatalities are falling (in most countries). Why don't the politicians 'Look at the Data'. But good point Raoul - the markets are always right.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 October 2020 @ 15:21
      Politicians in South Dakota said there was no super spreader after President Trump's major rally at Rushmore. The science shows they were completely wrong. Now the govenor of South Dakota says she showed everyone the science and it was there own choice. Is this leadership or stupid ideology. DLS
  • MH
    MICHAEL H.
    31 October 2020 @ 05:47
    Surely Comms are a trade for the post-insolvency phase?
    • DS
      David S.
      31 October 2020 @ 15:12
      That may be a long time away. You need to be solvent during the insolvency phase. It may be too difficult to figure what will come out on top after the insolvency now. If you are a really good trader, you may be able to make money during insolvency phase. Do not bet the farm. DLS
  • EB
    Emmanuel B.
    31 October 2020 @ 14:18
    would be really nice to start adding timestamps :)
  • PU
    Peter U.
    31 October 2020 @ 09:37
    "they are smoking crack"
  • CC
    CCosta C.
    31 October 2020 @ 08:55
    Bitcoin ... zzzzzzzzzzzz I have Bitcoin zzzzzzz yes Bitcoin ........you sound like my mother ... Bitcoin .... hummm
  • JL
    Jake L.
    31 October 2020 @ 08:23
    Come on Raoul, we all know that you are Satoshi...
  • DS
    David S.
    31 October 2020 @ 07:27
    I have Bitcoin and I am not worried about government interference for a long time. I am watching closely about computer hacking of accounts and the whole Bitcoin ledger. Many have said this is not possible. I hope they are correct. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    31 October 2020 @ 07:24
    The health community is doing a much better job of caring for COVID patients when they have sufficient supplies and fewer patients. The mortality rate is going down. The human and economic effects of the pandemic will be with us for at least several more years. COVID contagious before symptoms show and during the illness. COVID is also contagious even if you do not have symptoms. A recent British study shows that immunity of surviving COVID patients is four to five months from their antibodies. Many of the current vaccines trials are using antibody therapy. The-First-James M. is correct in his comment that T-Cell memory may be a big factor in keeping a vaccines effective immunity for a longer time. An Oxford study agrees that the T-Cell immunity would last much longer. They are trying to include T-Cell therapies in their vaccine. Unfortunately, Oxford states they have a long way to go with incorporating the T-Cell immunity with the COVID antibody vaccines. It is everyone’s hope that Oxford and other vaccine producers will come up with a combination of antibody and T-Cell vaccines which will be more long lasting. When the first antibody vaccines are available, much of the initial production will go for first responders and powerful people. These first vaccines may have to be given every four months. They are still a major move forward. It is still my opinion with all the people all over the world that will need to be vaccinated, COVID will be economically damaging in addition to the human toll for the next two to four years. I have no expertise in this area, but I am trying to prepare my liquid assets to last that long through the economic damage. DLS
  • MH
    MICHAEL H.
    31 October 2020 @ 05:45
    Tough to know what allocation to attach to BTC given it's vol. Most pundits saying 1-2% but I think more (potentially).
    • JW
      J W.
      31 October 2020 @ 06:27
      Everyone makes their own call on this, but various studies suggest around 5%, for example, https://www.investopedia.com/news/every-portfolio-should-have-6-bitcoin-yale-study/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20study%2C%20by,BTC%20allocation%2C%20said%20the%20study. Or, https://cointelegraph.com/news/portfolios-with-bitcoin-allocation-outperform-traditional-investments
  • MH
    MICHAEL H.
    31 October 2020 @ 05:58
    The IMF 2015 paper regarding CB adoption of CBDCs also states that 'Crypto Currencies will be regulated' under the Great Reset Scheme. I'd be interested to know how this might impact Main Street adopters of BTC.