Daily Briefing – October 7, 2020

Published on
October 7th, 2020
Duration
27 minutes

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12

Daily Briefing – October 7, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Jack Farley, and Ed Harrison

Published on: October 7th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down the vanishing fiscal stimulus and the K-shaped economic recovery. Ed interprets the latest economic data to give Jack his market outlook over the next six months. Ed then looks at how the impasse in the fiscal stimulus may widen the chasm between large corporations and small businesses. He and Jack then turn their gaze to the credit markets where the bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots is becoming even more apparent. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper takes a look at how President Trump has pulled the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations, what he's targeting now, and how markets have been taking in the news.

Comments

Transcript

  • AB
    Ash B. | Real Vision
    8 October 2020 @ 17:54
    8 0
    Great debut in the host seat, Jack!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      9 October 2020 @ 12:04
      1 0
      Thank you, Ash!!!
  • JW
    Jason W.
    7 October 2020 @ 23:31
    13 0
    Great job, Jack! Ed - I had a question concerning some of your comments today. In your upcoming ask me anything, could you clarify why you think the pivot point for the economy and markets is now shifting to early 2021? For a while now, you have been pointing to October/November 2020 as the critical pivot point. With today's comments it appears that that time period has shifted later. Did I misunderstand? This seems like a major change in your analysis. What has occurred to make you change your timeline? Thanks!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 00:25
      6 1
      I can address that. We have made it through most of the September/October period and we had a correction early on in that period as people digested data about the path forward. The path forward now looks relatively benign over the near term. So I don’t see any more near term economic hiccups. So the question now is whether there are any major downside risks forming. I think there are in credit markets, and potentially in a coronavirus-induced pullback of consumption. But neither of those outcomes has a specific timeframe attached to it.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      8 October 2020 @ 03:36
      1 0
      Thanks Ed for that clarification. I listen to everything and also noted the “sea change” in your prospective. Nice to hear it wasn’t just my imagination and your jumping in with an explanation was appreciated.
    • DT
      David T.
      8 October 2020 @ 21:25
      0 1
      @Ed, that's flip-flopping.
  • DT
    David T.
    8 October 2020 @ 21:23
    1 0
    Jack was natural like always.
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    8 October 2020 @ 21:13
    1 0
    Very well done Jack, your conduction was impecable
  • IM
    Ian M.
    8 October 2020 @ 19:35
    3 0
    Does Ash have an opinion on VAR? This is not related to Value at Risk, but more about the implementation of Video Assisted refereeing by FIFA, its a hot topic in the English Premier League at present :-)
  • sg
    scott g.
    8 October 2020 @ 17:33
    2 0
    jack is the man, well done
  • HB
    Herman B.
    8 October 2020 @ 15:46
    0 0
    Question to Ash & ED for AMA: In addtion to English, which languages do you speak &read? If you have time, can you give us an idea of what your typical working day looks like? Thank you
  • JF
    Jack F. | Real Vision
    8 October 2020 @ 13:15
    2 0
    Hi all, here is the link in the Exchange where you can post your question for Ed's and Ash's AMA: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/real-vision-ask-me-anything-with-ed-harrison-and-ash-bennington-5f7e0e79adaeda18c992a0d9
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    8 October 2020 @ 01:51
    5 1
    I really enjoy listening to Peter Cooper’s voice. Nice timbre, flow, enunciation, and warmth.
    • DJ
      Damien J.
      8 October 2020 @ 03:29
      3 0
      Fiscal ASMR
    • PC
      Peter C. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 13:01
      0 0
      Thank you Hannah! And Damien . . . "Fiscal ASMR". :) . . . sounds like a new series to me.
  • EB
    Evan B.
    8 October 2020 @ 04:15
    9 1
    I enjoy Peter"s calm smooth efficient openings. Relaxing.
    • PC
      Peter C. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 12:53
      0 0
      Thanks Evan!
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    8 October 2020 @ 10:59
    1 0
    Excellent RVDB! Question for the Friday's AMA: comment on Prof. Russell Napier's view of upcoming Financial Repression in the Developed World https://www.timesnownews.com/videos/et-now/shows/russel-napier-on-low-interest-rate-regime-emerging-markets-covid-impact-the-interview/75565 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcPETh2B_uw Cheers Guys!
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    8 October 2020 @ 09:51
    4 0
    Ed is a poet. Love listening to him.
  • PO
    Paul O.
    8 October 2020 @ 07:40
    7 0
    Well done Jack 👍
  • RK
    Ron K.
    8 October 2020 @ 00:36
    10 0
    Jack, get yourself a big red microphone. Good job.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      8 October 2020 @ 04:17
      0 0
      I got one of those red mics for teaching on zoom during the coming second lockdown. It increases the clarity of your voice over zoom by an order of magnitude over the inbuilt mic in a laptop, I was surprised how much of a difference it makes
  • BM
    Biju M.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:55
    2 0
    I typed a long ass message in mobile platform and showed me "error finger" at submission! so here i am doing it again! Good job Jack! Don't copy Ash(he is our one and only) but do copy his energy and flow. You have nothing to worry about, you got Ed at the other end, who could even make Raoul look good ;). Good to see you Peter. I have following Questions 1. What is the sweet-spot on stimulus amount? 2. Is there a way to measure inflation by discounting supply/demand shock from the items in the basket of goods. 3. Is there a framework to forecast currency based on options and futures market?
  • FC
    Frank C.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:53
    0 0
    Great job everyone!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:49
    5 0
    Peter, good job man. Always great to have Ed's perspective.
  • MM
    Morgan M.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:38
    0 0
    Awesome, Jack and Ed! Always appreciate your open-minded interpretation of the market/economic data. The top could still yet surprise us I guess!
  • MS
    Michael S.
    8 October 2020 @ 01:46
    13 1
    Nice job Jack, keep up the enthusiasm and attention to detail that is often glossed over. Really appreciate that. Cheers
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 03:37
      2 0
      Thanks Michael! Cheers
  • CA
    Chad A.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:36
    4 0
    Guys great job. Jack, very well done. Please keep up the smack talk.
  • DJ
    Damien J.
    8 October 2020 @ 03:35
    5 0
    Well done Jack! Important milestone!
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    8 October 2020 @ 01:45
    3 0
    Good Job Jack! Thanks Peter and Ed!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      8 October 2020 @ 03:31
      0 0
      Binyam, you took the words right out of my mouth! Your progress is being duly noted Jack, keep up the good work. Oh...and we will all drink a beer every time you avoid an “ahh”—please Jack take that in the positive spirit it is offered 😏
  • KP
    Kaushal P.
    8 October 2020 @ 02:48
    3 0
    Real vision going bullish means we are getting closer to the market top?
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    8 October 2020 @ 00:34
    3 0
    Excellent.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 01:39
      3 1
      Glad you liked it, Alan!
  • GA
    Gary A.
    8 October 2020 @ 00:24
    3 0
    Great job Jack and Ed..
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 01:39
      2 1
      Thank you!
  • MC
    Michael C.
    8 October 2020 @ 01:02
    2 0
    That's the problem with forecasting...getting timing, direction, and magnitude all correct is nearly impossible. But I wouldn't give up on the idea that the K legs like alligator jaws will close esp with extreme valuations...it's what you don't see that kills you.
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    7 October 2020 @ 23:31
    9 0
    So what happened to Sept/Oct timeframe for meeting with reality narrative? I felt like i dialed it into a brand new channel. I don't mind changing perspective, that's given, but this was a bit too surreal for me.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 00:36
      6 0
      I think you have to look at near-term risks on a rolling basis. We have come into this period and the US economy has dealt with the downside risks well enough that I do it see that derailing the bull market. Moving forward, the question is what the next near-term economic outlook looks like. And I don’t see anything to signal alarm. I don’t expect another market correction or increased volatility until we see the credit market deteriorate or an uptick in jobless claims/decline in consumption growth.
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    8 October 2020 @ 00:35
    5 0
    Today's Daily Briefing reinforced how much I really appreciate the quality job done by RV's editorial staff: Ash, Ed, Jack, Max, Roger & Peter (as well as others that don't come immediately to mind). You all are clearly knowledgeable and articulate, but also important--in that I watch your videos regularly-- very likable.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    7 October 2020 @ 23:42
    4 0
    Welcome back Peter! Always bringing the facts. @Jack great start in the big chair. Do we need to ask Raoul to increase the per diem so you can make the big move from dial-up to a cable modem?
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 October 2020 @ 23:49
      3 0
      Thank you, Mark. It isn’t an internet issue - my room was just too dark, I think. I’m used to filming at 2pm - what a difference 2 hours makes!
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    7 October 2020 @ 22:54
    3 0
    Amazing job, Jack! 👍
  • PM
    Phil M.
    7 October 2020 @ 22:53
    3 0
    Great jobs guys
  • BB
    Ben B.
    7 October 2020 @ 22:38
    5 0
    Go Jack!
  • SS
    S S.
    7 October 2020 @ 22:37
    15 0
    Jack actually did a great job. Congrats on losing your virginity 🤣
  • JS
    Jon S.
    7 October 2020 @ 22:21
    16 0
    Jack you are really getting better as interviewer! Together with Ash one of the top interviewers, keep it up!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 October 2020 @ 22:28
      5 1
      Thanks, Jon!

Chapters

  1. 00:00:28
    Intro with Peter Cooper
  2. 00:03:10
    Main Segment with Jack Farley and Ed Harrison