Daily Briefing – September 1, 2020

Published on
September 1st, 2020
Duration
31 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 1, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: September 1st, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to discuss how the Fed's "inflation running hot" memo has been translated by the markets. With a weakening dollar, rally in TIPS, and a steeper yield curve, Tony argues that the asset price inflation happening is the way the Fed had intended it to be and that understanding how the Fed fits into the equation will shape the investor's understanding of the sustainability of this rally. He and Ash examine the price action and continuous rotation across different sectors as well as how commodities continuing to rip is an expression of an ever-weakening dollar. Tony then provides his forward guidance for the remainder of the week. In the intro, Nick Correa goes over the newest U.S. manufacturing numbers as well as what's happening with copper and other industrial metals.

Comments

Transcript

  • MB
    Mike B.
    5 September 2020 @ 21:49
    Well that aged well.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:56
    Where's my MACRO? This is just a pile of dopamine stim.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      2 September 2020 @ 07:33
      Context context - do you think that the time frame of a DAILY briefing is a true reflection of a MACRO time frame? I could argue that the current macro is reflected in a DAILY briefing, and therefore listening to Tony will give you a perspective of the current MACRO. ?? You think?
    • CM
      Cory M.
      4 September 2020 @ 20:39
      Nope
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    3 September 2020 @ 14:13
    Great interview, Ash could you have coverage that deals with rotation, eventually towards EM stocks?
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    2 September 2020 @ 08:44
    Anyone know more about this options trick large punters are using to push specific stock prices higher? Apparently they are buying large numbers of cheap OOM calls, for pennies, which forces MMs to have to buy a set proportion of the underlying, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy as MM buying disproportionately pushes stock higher. It would be in an interesting discussion for a future piece.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      2 September 2020 @ 13:35
      Whatever the reality, deeply sceptical myself of your described scenario the market makers are the true masters of the financial trading universe e.g Jump, Citidel, Susquharna (spelling) they don't play directionally, but keep their overall book delta neutral in real time, they don't trade against the customer they're only interested in volume, volume and more volume creaming off tiny sums of money but on huge numbers of transactions is how they make their money.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      3 September 2020 @ 08:51
      Here is an interesting Jesse Felder article digging into this effect deeper. I've just found it. https://thefelderreport.com/2020/09/02/a-speculative-feeding-frenzy-like-weve-never-seen-before/
  • DM
    Don M.
    3 September 2020 @ 01:03
    https://twitter.com/TgMacro/status/1299304887709294592 https://twitter.com/TgMacro/status/1297868660917362688 https://twitter.com/tabongkima/status/1297874176527798273 https://twitter.com/oUSA_JEDIo/status/1295672741014757378 And retweeting Qanon... No thanks
  • FP
    Francisco P.
    3 September 2020 @ 00:43
    I think it would be cool, if the Daily Briefing is going to have a day dedicated to technical analysis discussion, to actually discuss the TA. Maybe more charts and trade analysis/construction, or discussion on what Tony specifically uses to come to his bull/bear conclusions. Of course not expecting a full on TA class, but including more of those aspects would be a nice addition. Rather than just listening to his narrative, which is just a story, of what the price action is telling him on a day to day basis. If equity markets were to start crashing in a month, the narrative would change. IMO — the mechanics of the market, perspectives on the “deflation v inflation and FED”, fundamentals on sectors is probably better left to those guests who are actually studying the macro/micro of those details to be ahead of a curve in those aspects. And I mean no disrespect to Tony whatsoever, I think he’s a fantastic guest, I just think actually discussing the things that make up his skill set, which has been stated is technicals, would be more valuable to the viewers.
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    2 September 2020 @ 21:38
    I'm willing to bet that when the market drops 50% in the next year, Tony will say one of two things: "How could we have seen this coming?!" or "I completely knew this would happen!"
    • LB
      Lukas B.
      2 September 2020 @ 21:42
      Alright. I take it back. He knows it will end soon.
  • KD
    Kenneth D.
    2 September 2020 @ 17:17
    Bullish after historic gains after months of bearish sentiment on daily briefing. Can’t wait to see how this plays out.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      2 September 2020 @ 17:54
      It will collapse to 360 I think
  • JS
    Jon S.
    1 September 2020 @ 22:19
    Finally a bull based on momentum. I take this interview as a market roof. I am personally shorting tonight.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      2 September 2020 @ 01:09
      ...I'm getting close to really wanting to short. But, it's an up market. A damn itchy finger I have on the mouse button. I need whiskey to calm it down.
    • VW
      Vernon W.
      2 September 2020 @ 03:53
      Don’t do it! Conquer trading and investing on YouTube follows RV. Wait for Raul and Jordan (CTI) tell you when to short. Right now is not the time. Just go neutral until the market tells you it’s collapsing. Better to miss a little than to get your face ripped off trying to short the market.
    • TL
      Tom L.
      2 September 2020 @ 06:19
      Put spreads would be a safer bet, shorting at the top just feels like a vanity play!
    • JS
      Jon S.
      2 September 2020 @ 07:08
      Thank you all :)
    • MT
      Mike T.
      2 September 2020 @ 09:07
      Nobody as in nobody knows for certain when or if equity markets will burst and decline. For bears waiting for certainty sitting on the sidelines will not do well. The real profits going short will be made by those that are positioned short now, and have sufficiently deep pockets to wait until it happens, 3months, 6 months a year or more however long it takes. Waiting to be told by others when to act is a sub-optimal strategy. My portfolio is short and has been for some weeks and I'm underwater of course but I'm not sweating as I don't have the bollocks to go all in.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      2 September 2020 @ 10:43
      That is a very good comment. As I said I went short at the time I publish my comments. I am holding my shorts.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      2 September 2020 @ 13:41
      Jon you took the words out of my mouth. This interview is totally hilarious. But you know it's a perspective and as many as I can gather the better.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      2 September 2020 @ 14:51
      Well, I would like to have this perspective weekly. It really gives a nice perspective of what the proprietary traders are doing. Tony is great, I have nothing against what he said or nothing alike. This is just my intuition what I have followed and intuition is the result of experience thats all.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      2 September 2020 @ 17:48
      I am adding shorts.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    1 September 2020 @ 22:45
    I’m of the opinion that TG Tuesdays needs to happen every week. No one can explain these markets as succinctly as Mr. Greer. See you at the festival tomorrow gentlemen. Cheers.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      2 September 2020 @ 13:38
      I will be happy to cancel my subscription should that happen.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:38
    Only issue today is the term "Fed is going to let inflation run hot". Fed has been trying to do this for over a decade. Lots of smart guys like Rosenberg and Hunt make good arguments on how the Fed doesn't control inflation and that QE is actually deflationary. From Tony's perspective, short term, that is pushing the market higher. But chances of a deflationary environment for the next year vs inflationary.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      2 September 2020 @ 13:36
      I've lived in Japan since 2002. Hat off to TG if he can cherry pick as a trader but there's no way in hell I'll take macro advice to him. Um 500ml bottle of coke in Japan in 2002 was 150 yen.... today it's.... 160 yen. Yeah it went up due to tax. FA inflation here.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:50
    And to add, today my 30 year old daughter who knows nothing about finance and investing texted me about investing in Apple. Said her friends were talking about it. Told her it was trading over 8x sales (recall Ellison's comments about Sun Micro in 2000) and to stay away. Analogous to the shoe shine guy or the Uber driver.
    • sc
      sung c.
      2 September 2020 @ 02:16
      Thanks. Since I haven't gone out, I've missed out on what the newbies are thinking or saying. I knew I wanted to sell some stocks.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      2 September 2020 @ 13:34
      Cheers Robert. Thinking back to late 90s when I was in college and all my friends going broke on tech stocks. 20years later they still hate stocks.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    2 September 2020 @ 13:13
    Excellent,thank you.
  • jW
    john W.
    2 September 2020 @ 02:27
    I remember in 2000 everyone knew the internet bubble would burst, but everyone also thought it would last just 1 more day...
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      2 September 2020 @ 05:32
      to be fair the companies that gained value in 2000 were shit and the companies gaining in the 2020 bubble are much higher quality
    • DM
      Don M.
      2 September 2020 @ 12:28
      Jimmy D. not true. Some during dot.com were but many - MSFT, CSCO, QCOM, etc were money makers but grossly overvalued and didn't get back their losses for over a decade.
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    2 September 2020 @ 12:07
    The GOAT is back
  • DL
    David L.
    2 September 2020 @ 10:53
    Always enjoy TG's commentary. One question: at some point, the markets will change. Are you hedging your positions and, if so, how?
  • WR
    William R.
    2 September 2020 @ 04:43
    Any suggested etfs to track a basket of base metals?
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      2 September 2020 @ 05:39
      You could trade SCCO stock or options. It's a copper miner.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      2 September 2020 @ 09:56
      @ Jimmy D. SCCO???? is a sub-optimal instrument to use, because it's not liquid. The underlying stock trades less than a million shares per day. Then to use the options on SCCO is a really bad idea, again because the liquidity in the options is really poor, wide bid ask spreads, Open interest negligible, daily Options volume neglible, then scanning the Monthlys in SCCO there are multiple strikes with ZERO bid. People can and will always debate pros/cons theory's etc BUT one rule that should never be broken, don't mess about with illiquid instruments.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    2 September 2020 @ 07:36
    Simply superb again! Thanks a lot!
  • EP
    Elton P.
    2 September 2020 @ 06:50
    Tony Greer is great, on the money, very useful stuff, and most importantly helps us make actionable informed decisions
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    1 September 2020 @ 22:45
    Every time I see that it's T.G. on, I get my pompoms out of the closet. It's nice to see his enthusiasm, since nearly every other thing I'm seeing/reading is bearish except for a few, select trades.
    • LE
      Loui E.
      2 September 2020 @ 05:53
      What’s up with the twitter exchange between DDTG and Tony G?
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    2 September 2020 @ 05:52
    Great!
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    2 September 2020 @ 05:24
    Tony is the man
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    2 September 2020 @ 04:34
    Excellent RVDB, thanks. A more technical update like this once a week is a great idea.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    2 September 2020 @ 03:56
    Scene of a dimly lit room, the shadow of a figure slowly swinging back and forth in an armchair. A red candle on top of a barrel shades the Apple next to it and the man's face across the room in flickering orange. He seems to be smiling. It's more of a grin than a smile as he's skimming through a paper in his hand. "McGuinness' Stock Observer" - heavy prints of lead lettering are clearly visible through the backlit cheap paper. Satisfied of what he's seen, his head tilts backwards, the newspaper slowly lowered and eventually slides off his hand as he goes to sleep. The red candle continues to burn, held in place by a small splash of molten wax. Like he always does it. Every night, just before reading the Observer. <Fade to black> Scene of a burning house...
  • DM
    Don M.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:59
    Please return to macro. I don't need to hear ideas based on "the market's going up because Trump will be reelected."
  • WW
    Will W.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:20
    Outstanding reality check!
  • CB
    Chris B.
    2 September 2020 @ 01:02
    To RV - Thanks for listening. I think you'll find that there is a whole untapped audience of traders that are hungry for the type of timely, market-based, actionable info Tony shares.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    2 September 2020 @ 00:59
    Always appreciate your thoughts Tony
  • PB
    Paul B.
    2 September 2020 @ 00:46
    USD is on the Floor like everyone else now...It's not likely to run higher
  • SG
    Steve G.
    2 September 2020 @ 00:26
    Tony is still the man.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    2 September 2020 @ 00:02
    Hey Ash/Tony I have a question? What was the dollar and yields doing when the FED threw their 3 trillion Bazooka at the market?.. Yields dropped and the dollar shot higher. just because the FED says they will let inflation run hot when Q,E is deflationary. BTW AAPL is up 1 Exxon in last 48 hours..Thanks Tony..
    • mw
      michael w.
      2 September 2020 @ 00:12
      It's all smoke and mirrors. The bond market isn't buying it.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    1 September 2020 @ 23:04
    J-shaped recovery??
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      2 September 2020 @ 00:09
      I'm pretty sure it's F U shaped.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    1 September 2020 @ 23:48
    Thanks ash
  • AD
    Andrew D.
    1 September 2020 @ 23:22
    Re: Oil, it will be burnt until the battery metals are mined
  • JS
    Jon S.
    1 September 2020 @ 22:30
    And forgot to say I think if we have tony one time weekly will be great to have one day of market sentiment from a more propietary perspective
  • MC
    Michael C.
    1 September 2020 @ 22:24
    The house is loaded again with dynamite, gasoline, propane, and an A bomb, just like going into Feb. Cue black swan...;)
    • MC
      Michael C.
      1 September 2020 @ 22:27
      FWIW. ZM got a mention at the beginning of the PBS Newshour.