Daily Briefing – September 15, 2020

Published on
September 15th, 2020
Duration
31 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 15, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: September 15th, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the latest in markets. Tony breaks down what he's seeing in the tech shakeout and explains how he's approaching the recent correction in equity markets. He walks through the indicators he watched and how that guides his investment decisions. Ash and Tony then discuss the ongoing suppression of oil demand, especially as fears of lagging demand will persist for years rise, and how Tony is maintaining his long natural resources position. Tony then offers his final thoughts on what he's looking out for as the week goes on. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin examines the rise of retail investors and why institutional investors are turning to platforms like Reddit and Twitter to track retail in efforts to gain an edge in the market and gain a better understanding of why they are flocking to stocks like Nikola.

Comments

Transcript

  • jW
    john W.
    16 September 2020 @ 05:08
    There's just so much valid tech out there: Aerospace - SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactica Satellite Internet - Starlink, Kuiper Online Shopping Amazon Go, no checkout shopping 5G Communications Genomics/Personalized drugs De-Fi Decentralized Finance system using Blockchain Tokenization and exchanges using Blockchain Blockchain for everything Artificial Intelligence Internet of Things Robotics for everything Electric Vehicle Batteries Driverless Car Remote working software tools Software as a service Cloud Computing Data Storage Microchip development Super computer developments Alternative Energies Gaming.....et al
    • NE
      Nathan E.
      16 September 2020 @ 07:03
      I could not agree more. While I’m extremely concerned about a supercycle correction due to astounding levels of debt here and abroad, at the same time I get very excited about the multiple truly transformational opportunities there are. We are nowhere near done with the digitization of business & gov’t, A.I. & robotics will begin to reshape our transportation & logistics infrastructure soon, globally its clear there is consensus on threat of climate change meaning the entire energy grid will be transformed as well as the automotive industry (soon to be followed by airplanes and boating)., genomics will revolutionize health care...could go on but I’m sure you see my point:)
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:46
      No argument here John.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 September 2020 @ 22:07
      Easily agree except for everything needs to be funded. I am a revenue guy and I see large declines personal, corporate and government cash flow. Great tech must still function within an economy. If the economy moves to real recession, great tech may already be overpriced for a good while. DLS
  • ar
    andrew r.
    18 September 2020 @ 15:29
    Tony is always solid.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    16 September 2020 @ 18:10
    "It's usually retail trying to work out what the pros are are doing. Now it's round the other way." Nice one Ash.
    • sc
      sung c.
      17 September 2020 @ 01:09
      Sounds like a good sign to short the market?
  • DM
    Don M.
    16 September 2020 @ 17:59
    Can we at least mix up the technical analysts? Sorry but follow TG on twitter and you'll soon find that his "analysis" is shaded by "Trump is so great everything will recover". As someone else says, a (small) notch above free CNBC
    • JA
      John A.
      16 September 2020 @ 22:28
      Use him as a sound board of the opposite side. At least TG knows this is all a trade right now and isn't trying to sell it. I just can't live in his head space and chase momentum like him. I'm not built for it. But the day Tony says it is time to get defensive is going to be a good indicator that capitulation is at hand.
  • MJ
    Marshall J.
    16 September 2020 @ 22:19
    Really enjoyed TG Tuesday. Please make these regular. Learned a lot and really good energy and pace.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    16 September 2020 @ 19:21
    I’ve been a TG fan for a long time, but this one was an especially good one (hat tip to Ash for keeping TG focused, but at the same time letting him roll when appropriate—it’s harder to do than people think!). At the risk of making too long a comment, I did want to point out how this particular segment is a great adjunct to the “Festival of Learning” as there were some real nuggets in here for trading, sizing, position monitoring as well as preservation of one’s emotional capital (I’ve always said that I will run out of emotional capital before running out of financial capital). For each of us there were different “nuggets” to take away from the “Festival of Learning” and a few of them reminded me of my own hard learned mistakes which have now become part of my investment discipline. I know Raoul is interested in our feedback on “How I Use RV” and since I have been with RV almost from the beginning (having viewed 90% of all the content) I thought I would give a few examples; a recent example was the Peter Borish interview (9-13-2020) where Peter mentioned a couple of All Star traders that he traded with and made the observation “the bad news was that I’m not as good a Trader/Investor as they were/are so I had to come to grips with the fact that I had to be my “own investor”. This was a potent observation and when you dovetail it with the “Festival of Learning” it may, in fact, be the most important thing I have gotten out of RV and how I use RV. Each of us must determine at some point what are strengths, weakness, and limitations are with regard to the tools we are comfortable using, the Position sizing we can handle emotionally and the risk/reward appetite that is appropriate for us depending upon our Age, net worth, investment experience and again, the all important Emotional constraints that we may have developed over time. I closed my 15 year Futures account many years ago after the Lind Waldock fiasco and don’t trade Futures. I also never traded Options and at my age have not tried to learn to do so as I don’t think I would be competent at it. As for “Hedging”—I have developed my own brand of what I call “Poor Man’s Hedging”....which is simply don’t use leverage and take a smaller position. So....in answer to Raoul's question as to how I use RV....I can say that even without Futures market access or Options trading I can use ETF’s, Stocks, Bonds and occasional Short Sales in conjunction with the Macro Insiders (“Pro”) Trades, as well as the Trades suggested by many RV guests to quite effectively generate income (while trading within my emotional parameters). Oh,,,,and the Big Picture wisdom nuggets I have gathered along the way have been instrumental in developing MY investment framework!
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    16 September 2020 @ 15:11
    just a notch above cnbc stuff and you get that for free on TV
    • DM
      Don M.
      16 September 2020 @ 17:56
      Agree entirely. "It'll go up unless it goes down"
  • SL
    Sean L.
    16 September 2020 @ 15:36
    TG Tuesday’s is my favourite thing on RV right now.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    16 September 2020 @ 14:03
    Lol...love it!
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    16 September 2020 @ 13:15
    Love Tony as a regular weekly contributer.
  • BH
    Benji H.
    16 September 2020 @ 01:27
    Continue having Tony. It's great to hear some alternative points of view- especially from technical traders.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:48
      Benji - cheers and thank you.
    • TS
      Timothy S.
      16 September 2020 @ 12:49
      technical aka delusional
  • DG
    Dave G.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:16
    Tony can you explain how the feds Q.E inflates assets prices please? There seems to be alot of confusion on the exact mechanism.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 September 2020 @ 23:54
      I agree that the Fed inflates asset prices. I believe that the Fed Board of Governors do not think the Fed inflates asset prices. There have been enumerable videos on how the Fed does not inflate prices except maybe by encouragement. I think that there is a floodgate that opens behind the veil. When it is all over, I suggest that investment banks, shadow bank, the quants and hedge fund along with the Fed's own stepchild the Repo market may all good possibilities for increased liquidity in the market? Someone will write a book someday and everyone will be like Captain Renault in Casablanca - “I’m shocked, shocked that I find that gambling is going on in here.” Unlike Captain Renault, I do not think the Fed is being paid off. DLS
    • AT
      Adelina T.
      16 September 2020 @ 12:10
      In the simplest terms I think of it as the FED; 1. Devalue/deflate the USD, by ensuring that there will be no reward/yield in holding cash USD. This removes incentives for holding it, in fact there is now a penalty for holding it. Thus the demand for and value of cash USD goes down vs other assets, it now takes more (devalued) USD to buy assets. Removing interest, pushing down yields, increasing money supply, setting expectations of low rates for a very long time, thus telling everyone "don't sit on your cash is worth less by the day - buy something, anything". 2. Participate in markets to put in a floor (Fed put) on downside risk, and even make purchases, pushing prices higher, telling the market I've got your back.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:47
    Love Tony Greer! Sounds like Tony Stark (Iron Man) :)
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:49
      ahahha if I had a nickel....
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    16 September 2020 @ 01:45
    TG is the GOAT
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:48
      this will make a man's day. Thank you Patrick.
  • rm
    ryan m.
    16 September 2020 @ 02:37
    Awesome Briefing, love the cautious optimism from TG. Great Host as well, Ash you always let people speak without interrupting, well done
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:47
      Ash is the MAN. Excellent at his job.
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    16 September 2020 @ 08:22
    I've said it before, I'll say it again. "Tony is one of my RV favourites". Always enjoy his content.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:46
      Firoze - too kind - thank you.
  • SM
    Steve M.
    16 September 2020 @ 10:56
    @Tony - what does the "ROCKTOBER" on your whiteboard calendar refer to. What are you planning for in the markets!?!?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      16 September 2020 @ 11:45
      we always called it "ROCKTOBER" at J.Aron for some reason. I kept it ; )
  • JS
    Jon S.
    16 September 2020 @ 07:07
    Happy tuesday?
  • EP
    Elton P.
    16 September 2020 @ 06:54
    this guy is cool
  • PS
    Paul S.
    16 September 2020 @ 06:24
    Thanks, great briefing, nicely done Haley, good to see the smiles which the boys rarely do!
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    16 September 2020 @ 05:57
    Thanks!
  • AB
    Ash B. | Real Vision
    15 September 2020 @ 22:29
    Since filming, NKLA is now under criminal investigation by DoJ in addition to SEC, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.
    • AH
      Adam H.
      16 September 2020 @ 03:19
      4 days ago, NKLA broke through support. It seems to me that NKLA will probably be exploring in the $10-20 range in the days/weeks to come. https://www.tradingview.com/x/av9C7J7N/
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      16 September 2020 @ 04:29
      WSJ Link... https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-probes-electric-truck-startup-nikola-over-claims-it-misled-investors-11600199462
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    16 September 2020 @ 03:44
    Regarding Nikola - I would suggest anyone considering investing simply go out and vet management team on their website...
  • OM
    Owen M.
    16 September 2020 @ 02:40
    TG turnaround Tuesdays is great. Keep it up Ash, TG and RV. Thank you.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    16 September 2020 @ 01:50
    If institutional investors are watching what retail investors are doing, it is to figure out how to fleece them of their money, not to follow them. It is like letting the rookie come to the poker game, he may be a lucky for a few hands but in the end, walks out with empty pockets.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    16 September 2020 @ 01:20
    @TGMacro brings it full blast every single Tuesday!
  • MA
    Mike A.
    16 September 2020 @ 00:59
    Not really a shock with respect to oil with the work at home theme people are just not driving as much and Airlines not flying. As far as inflation goes banks are still not lending they are preserving capitol for the incoming insolvency events that Raoul has been talking about.The fed can only support markets for so long without fiscal from congress which we won't get until after the election. Retails the monkey in the wrench and if they start to dump and the averages give away look out below..Always great to hear from Tony and great job Ash!!
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    16 September 2020 @ 00:46
    Heavy Weight Headliner: Greer v Portnoy
  • DL
    David L.
    16 September 2020 @ 00:26
    Great - always a pleasure to hear TG's views.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    16 September 2020 @ 00:21
    I think this RVDB is as entertaining as interesting. Great work Ash, Tony ! A Tony and Dave P RVDB would be nuts.
  • jG
    james G.
    16 September 2020 @ 00:14
    Tony Greers rational for trying to own Amazon as a pure trade is priceless . This is why I joined and that is the mind set I wish to achieve . thank you
  • MG
    M G.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:58
    Great points Tony. Thank you!
  • DS
    David S.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:56
    Very interesting perspectives. Best of luck on your trades Mr. Greer. DLS
  • ES
    Edward S.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:47
    Tony is candid and leaves no doubt in the viewer's mind about where he stands on this rally: it's all about the Fed, and if Jerome Powell is not worried, then this market goes higher.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:38
    No fear Greer!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    15 September 2020 @ 23:12
    Bizarro world - yes.