Daily Briefing – September 18, 2020

Published on
September 18th, 2020
Duration
27 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 18, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: September 18th, 2020 • Duration: 27 minutes

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to look forward to the future of markets as well as Real Vision. After they evaluate how the market interpreted the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, Raoul broadens the conversation beyond equities to make sense of the flatness in bond yields and credit spreads. Raoul and Ash then discuss the upcoming two-week exploration on Real Vision, "Has Everything Changed," as well as discuss how Real Vision’s new platform, "The Exchange," is allowing Real Vision members to connect with each other and form a "hive mind." In the intro, Jack reviews market price action and gives a sneak peak of "Has Everything Changed."

Comments

Transcript

  • ER
    Eoin R.
    22 September 2020 @ 19:54
    No more weight loss Raoul!!
  • Lv
    Liliane v.
    21 September 2020 @ 20:03
    And Ash of course!!!
  • Lv
    Liliane v.
    21 September 2020 @ 19:56
    Great episode, I hadn't had the chance to listen in a while and it was good to hear the updates not only on macro but also on what RV is doing. Truly appreciate your work Raoul and Jack and everyone on RV!
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    19 September 2020 @ 13:19
    But can we get Ash a bloody green screen? His NYC storage locker is becoming rather claustrophobic.
    • PD
      Paul D.
      19 September 2020 @ 14:15
      I feel the opposite. I don't trust anyone with a green screen. Own your tiny space Ash! I assume everybody with a green screen has a dismembered body hanging behind them somewhere.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      19 September 2020 @ 23:26
      I think it’s an interesting change in the new WFH world - seeing someone else’s home environment, which gives you a further glimpse into their background. Surprising how some big guns appear to have modest homes, or at least don’t feel the need to show off a fancy corner of their place. Some of the most successful fund managers are the most modest (at least publicly) - I recall how one of Australia’s top fund managers brought an utterly rubbish bottle of wine to a staff drinks event, and another I spotted appearing virtually dressed as a homeless man walking in central Sydney.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      20 September 2020 @ 13:39
      Why does this even matter? Ash is extremely informative, could care less what his background is. Could go to Central Park and do it there for all i care.
    • DS
      David S.
      21 September 2020 @ 16:49
      Is someone investing in green screens? Is this about investing? DLS
  • BE
    Brent E.
    20 September 2020 @ 05:13
    I will not renew my subscription if these videos continue to be RV infomercials.
    • DS
      David S.
      21 September 2020 @ 16:44
      You will be missing out on great content. DLS
  • KW
    Ken W.
    20 September 2020 @ 15:47
    Does anyone really think RV is capable of creating something that requires real software development? Their apps are so poorly engineered that I can’t imagine people really using their Stocktwits rip off
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 September 2020 @ 23:58
      This hurts but its fair. We focussed so long on content that we need to really up our technology and UX. Its the sheer cost of it that's the issue for us. We just dont have the money but we desperately need it.
    • DS
      David S.
      21 September 2020 @ 16:42
      Best of luck in your tech. I am very happy with slower tech and great content. Thanks. I know everyone is working at warp speed. DLS
  • CP
    Carlos P.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:39
    Great interview. Thanks Ash and Raoul
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    21 September 2020 @ 03:04
    Love RV but you had nothing to say in today's DB. Took me 15+ minutes to realize it. You can take a Friday off if you are tired from a long week. Nothing wrong with that. I spent 22 years in credit trading. The rule of thumb for morning meetings was, if you don't have anything to say on a particular, the correct answer is: "I got nothing today" and the meeting moved onto the next trader. Every one respects that compared to taking time to say nothing.
    • CS
      Charles S.
      21 September 2020 @ 04:55
      DB is free to the entire public, so no surprise about occasional infomercial content, mostly limited to Fri w/ A&R, and it's a fair price for free content. Also, there were "things said" today, as w/ every Fri.
  • BT
    Bryan T.
    20 September 2020 @ 12:46
    So first part of presentation described well state of the markets, with little going on what does one expect the guests to drone on about? Its a briefing so my expectations are usually met, including with this one. I personally have large demands on my time. So to have a summary of what is coming up in RV is of value to me, so I can plan for the best use of that time. If that is an infomercial for some, well that's a stretch but OK drop off, some of us want to plan our viewing schedule. Also, I don't have time to surf the RV content so to hear where things are happening is of value to me. I like hearing more about the RV community since I want...once again...to know whether spending more or less time on the RV platform is a good choice. Lots of things competing for time in my day, I run a financial planning department in a wealth management firm (RIA) so to hear about the demographics of the user group and how they are contributing to the content helps me conclude if I'll be in a rich learning environment...or not. Lastly, I've been here from the early days and enjoy hearing where this grand experiment is heading so I can conclude if the value proposition I bought in to originally is still intact. RV is much improved today than it was when I started with them and has some ambitious plans that they're sharing with me. I'll stay with a model such as that as it has a lot of appeal for me.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 September 2020 @ 23:59
      Thanks Brian.
  • bm
    brian m.
    20 September 2020 @ 23:41
    But Coffee is dropping fast
  • JR
    John R.
    19 September 2020 @ 05:53
    Just discovered Real Vision and loving it. I'm a 55 year old primary teacher so running out of time to invest for my pension but the content on this platform provides great material for discussions with my son who has just started an Economics degree. Like Raoul, I'm irresponsibly long on Bitcoin.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      19 September 2020 @ 06:13
      Thanks, John. Welcome!
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      20 September 2020 @ 02:22
      Just hope for your sake this doesn’t prove to be an irresponsible strategy... Even Raoul is diversified outside BTC...
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      20 September 2020 @ 13:41
      Should not be going for a Hail Mary shot at age 55 imo. but to each his/her own.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      20 September 2020 @ 21:27
      Hi John. Word to the wise ... watch out for position sizing. Raoul is brilliant, but he's such a good showman that every idea sounds to the layman like it's worthy of heavy investment. Position sizing is everything. Numbers of seemingly strong conviction recommendations (5 year treasury spread, 2 year treasury options, etc.) ran down to zero, capital lost. Those of us who understood what we were doing were ok having taken the risk, but some newbies were stunned by their losses. See you in the Slack community, where lots of help from experts is available!
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    19 September 2020 @ 07:11
    Would be great to hear Raoul or another expert elaborate on why "the bond market speaks the truth"... I loosely get it, but would appreciate a deep dive
    • EF
      Eric F.
      19 September 2020 @ 15:09
      Deep dive? It’s as simple as the bond market is saying one thing, the stock market another, which is right? Bond market is rarely if ever wrong...
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      19 September 2020 @ 16:08
      I’ll take a high level stab with my recent learning, but happy to be corrected... Bond yields are an outcome of supply and demand. When bond yields rise, there’s less demand for bonds (they become cheaper) as money moves to equities in risk on. I.e. there is confidence in the equity markets and anticipated growth so no need for so many bonds/fixed income. When bond yields fall, this is a sign of demand for bonds (higher bond prices) because people will pay more and for less return to protect their capital from a risk off/deflationary event (lower equity prices). On the macro level, bond yields have been trending down for about 30 years now, and are close to zero. Raoul’s point (I believe) is that if rates break down, they are likely heading to zero, risk off and lower equity prices in a deflationary event. If yields break to the upside and continue, it suggests that money is flowing out of bonds and into equities in an inflationary manner.
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 September 2020 @ 21:47
      I believe it’s also because the bond market is gargantuan and mostly the place for huge pension input and very professional safety seekers.
    • hs
      hanumath s.
      20 September 2020 @ 16:02
      Bond yields plus dollar index on a high-level show where capital is heading towards. Flows in and out of those instruments directly are reflected and affect other assets and credit markets.
    • DM
      Don M.
      20 September 2020 @ 18:59
      The bond market is not only much bigger than the stock market, it's employs a longer term horizon and without the hype. When was the last time talking heads gushed over a bond's movement?
  • DS
    David S.
    20 September 2020 @ 18:53
    Europe and the UK are under more and more economic pressure as COVID cases rise sharply after summer fun on the beach. The US is still generating 44,000 cases per day. Some may be from better testing, but they should have been reported earlier. We do not even know the shape of the curve from lack of proper testing. Much of the wealth of world is in US bonds - cash. Is possible that this will continue?. Is it possible that gold and Bitcoin just go sideways as investors keep putting their money in the market of truth? What are the catalysts that would drive investors to increase their investments in precious metals, mining and/or Bitcoin in the next year? Any idea of what would really move the needle? Is it simply better to keep your money in a portfolio of “safe” countries bonds and let the FX market have its fun? In a pandemic world is cash king? DLS
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    20 September 2020 @ 05:31
    I watch most of your videos at various speeds. Can't set that on the phone. That's a problem since any time in the car i want to watch real vision
    • DG
      Dave G.
      20 September 2020 @ 13:35
      Go to full screen mode and you can change the speed.
  • RL
    Renee L.
    19 September 2020 @ 22:54
    Saylor interview was amazing! Truly incredible how much this guy researched in a short period of time- I’ve been in this space since 2014. Saylor was right on point.
  • DM
    David M.
    19 September 2020 @ 17:47
    Today the show was Just an advert for RV, not a daily briefing
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      19 September 2020 @ 17:57
      That’s why it’s free
    • DG
      Dave G.
      19 September 2020 @ 22:05
      I was thinking the same thing. I use to look forward to the Friday briefing but not no more. 2 weeks of infomercial.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    19 September 2020 @ 06:58
    I have the Saylor interview queued up for tonight with our school’s economics, business, computer science teachers, and a bottle of Highland Park 12.
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 September 2020 @ 21:45
      Nice. If you want a nice whiskey at a great price try Balvenie 14 year Caribbean cask.....
  • DR
    David R.
    19 September 2020 @ 12:05
    Other than being a very funny RVDB, Raoul helped me today with his « wait and see advice ». It is true that although I want to do something, nothing has to be done. It’s been a few weeks I’ve been looking at my charts of relative strength among asset classes and relative strength among sectors and nothing moves. It’s boring and I realize I wanted to do something about it. Thanks Raoul!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 September 2020 @ 14:01
      Doing nothing is a high quality investment strategy...
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      19 September 2020 @ 17:54
      This is very Dao.
  • RJ
    Raoul J.
    19 September 2020 @ 02:47
    Ash saying "really interesting" with a straight face - makes me think it is the least interesting ever!
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      19 September 2020 @ 16:09
      He needs to change that filler word out... ;-)
  • WM
    Warren M.
    19 September 2020 @ 16:03
    Ernest Hemingway's novel The Sun Also Rises "How did you go bankrupt?" "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    19 September 2020 @ 14:39
    Learning tribe - I like it.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    19 September 2020 @ 14:29
    Great job Jack.
  • DS
    David S.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:45
    Great idea for next week on the real economy! Looking forward to the presentations. Thanks. DLS
    • RM
      Richard M.
      19 September 2020 @ 13:41
      What kind of jerk gives a thumbs down for a simple statement of feelings/anticipation???
  • MC
    Michael C.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:25
    Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing...lol. However 2 pts. The 10 year yield has made a series of lower highs since the beginning of the year. And JPM, supposedly the best of breed, looked simply awful this week. And IMO the most significant piece this week is the SP500 closed below its 50 day MA for the first time since late April along with the Naz composite; the DJIA is hanging by a thread while the Russell 2000 cruises above it all for now. We shall see how significant the break is...quite soon I think.
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      19 September 2020 @ 13:16
      Feels a little 2002, yes?
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    19 September 2020 @ 13:06
    Good job Jack!
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    19 September 2020 @ 05:34
    You guys make me feel happy great people and content and crypto is moving fast in adaption, one thing I am amazed of in the market it is Iron ore price this week it was up to $130 What is this telling me?
    • DR
      David R.
      19 September 2020 @ 12:12
      Inflation expectation maybe. Goods (commodities and raw materials) are mostly stabilizing/picking up while services are stabilizing/slightly falling. No solid new trend nor obvious change in trend when looking at relative strength, but stabilization may be the first step in the new tilt.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    19 September 2020 @ 10:56
    Another Friday db. Another conversation about RV instead of the markets. Not really interesting imo
  • MR
    Marco R.
    19 September 2020 @ 08:31
    Awesome as always. Friday without Raoul und Ash would be scary 😂
  • JR
    John R.
    19 September 2020 @ 05:53
    Just discovered Real Vision and loving it. I'm a 55 year old primary teacher so running out of time to invest for my pension but the content on this platform provides great material for discussions with my son who has just started an Economics degree. Like Raoul, I'm irresponsibly long on Bitcoin.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    19 September 2020 @ 05:40
    Raoul and Real Vision can you please bring back Mark Hart, Doug Noland, Tony Deden, and Felix Zulauf to get their latest macro views. It has been a long time since RV interviewed these gentlemen. Also what happened to Justine and her Discovery series? I am assuming it is only on hold until the pandemic recedes. Can you please confirm that the series will come back once the pandemic is over? Thank you.
  • BB
    Bhaumik B.
    19 September 2020 @ 04:05
    Thanks RV team for the amazing content all through the last few months. Could you also cover ESG investing and SPAC over the next few days? Pretty sure, you guys would already be working on it..
  • hb
    hilde b.
    19 September 2020 @ 03:55
    Reincarnation, tequila sunrise, magic. Dow 20 OOO= gold 20000 !
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    19 September 2020 @ 03:42
    Just witnessed the wonderful K shape recovery. In the heart of Silicon Valley which caters to tech workers making 300K a year per household a constant stream of traffic. Busy outdoor restaurants and non stop traffic to get parking. The sad reality is that only the most affluent and exclusive of neighborhoods can afford outdoor dining because it far from the commotion of our collapsing cities.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:55
    The sentiment survey is a ridiculous (outstandingly great) idea.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:46
    "How did you go bankrupt? Two ways, Gradually, then suddenly." Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. Love you, Raoul.
  • JM
    James M.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:39
    Happy weekend gents. Thanks again for the analysis and giggles.
  • CD
    Claudio D.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:31
    if CPI is rising while the service industry is barley open and the grocery stores food items prices are rising it must be because producers have higher demands and they are raising prices because of the lock downs. People argued against inflation but those who argued missed the part about the positive slope of supply.
  • CD
    Claudio D.
    19 September 2020 @ 01:28
    https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/mobile/consumer-prices-increase-1-point-0-percent-in-the-12-months-ending-july-2020.htm
    • CD
      Claudio D.
      19 September 2020 @ 01:31
      if CPI is rising while the service industry is barley open and the grocery stores food items prices are rising it must be because producers have higher demands and they are raising prices because of the lock downs. People argued against inflation but those who argued missed the part about the positive slope of supply.
  • DL
    David L.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:44
    Jack, is the French Covid data just the raw number of cases or is it normalized by the number of tests performed? Almost certainly many more tests are being conducted now than back in April. Many more tests should find many more cases so it is difficult to draw conclusions with non-normalized data.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 September 2020 @ 00:26
      Hi David, the data is as you say “raw” - not normalized for number of tests done
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      19 September 2020 @ 00:27
      Also, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire tested positive today
  • SM
    Shawn M.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:42
    Is it game-changing Raul if you delete conversations for a simple comment such as calling an Altcoin a Shitcoin after somebody tries to say that TA has no value in CRYPTO. I didn't realize we were dealing with such a sensitive bunch. Deleting conversations over such trivial things is a slippery slope just ask the Germans and Chinese for example.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 September 2020 @ 00:02
      ? I literally have no idea what you are talking about. But it sure sounds like you were not trying to add value to the community. If you want to fight about bitcoin vs others, go to Twitter. If you want to listen and learn, stay on Real Vision. Thanks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 September 2020 @ 00:03
      Also, its Raoul, not Raul.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:36
    I’d really love to talk to you about your exchange. I build these kinda platforms at FanCircles. I’ve also been with you since the beginning and love what you’re doing. Could you drop me an email? Kevin@fancircles.com
    • GS
      George S.
      18 September 2020 @ 23:56
      Thanks Kevin. We will reach out.
  • rs
    ross s.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:24
    Can't view anything on phone or computer. Is the site down?
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    18 September 2020 @ 23:00
    So is the Exchange based survey going to be by asset class? It would seem it needs to be but ... wow...this could be very useful.