Daily Briefing – September 23, 2020

Published on
September 23rd, 2020
Duration
21 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 23, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Dave Floyd

Published on: September 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 21 minutes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to review and analyze today's price action. Ed and Dave first discuss the continuing sell-off in equities and examine Dave's bearish position on the S&Ps. They also consider the dollar's move upward, what opportunities may exist for the yen as a result, and how low volatility in bonds is prompting higher volatility in the FX space. Finally, Dave shares his thoughts on the sell-off in silver, explains what technicals he uses to manage the trade, and at what levels he'll retest his bullish thesis on precious metals.

Comments

Transcript

  • GO
    Grzegorz O.
    26 September 2020 @ 21:31
    Why are BTC transaction fees so high currently? Just sent £200 worth of BTC from exchange to my private wallet and paid £9.19 fee. Last year that costed me ~ £0.50
  • DM
    Don M.
    24 September 2020 @ 14:48
    The problem with technicals in this format is they offer little substantive advice. Saying the charts told me xyz yesterday but may say something different today is great but of no use. Try JC Parets of All Star Charts. He looks across many different markets to compose an overall thesis of where things are headed - not today vs tomorrow but in an intermediate trend.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 16:28
      Hi Don....context is key and style is also a factor. I trade tactically, what I say now might be different than what I see/say a day from now or a few hours. What's most important is transparency and track record - regardless of the time frame. If you don't have the performance to back up a view....it's not terribly valuable.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      24 September 2020 @ 18:55
      Dave F - what is your track record like using EW in conjunction with your tactical approach!?
    • MT
      Mike T.
      25 September 2020 @ 08:52
      @DaveF are you intending to respond to @SergioM question? Also if I may I'd like to add one of my own. Using EW what is the % success rate for SHORT positions?
  • BM
    Biju M.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:34
    Bring Roger Hirst on Monday and Thursday. He always has some fresh perspective backed by data and interesting topics. Keep Technicals analysis once a week.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      24 September 2020 @ 17:56
      Could not disagree more strongly with this
  • DM
    Don M.
    24 September 2020 @ 14:50
    One last thought, Ash and Ed are best Daily Briefings. Used to be Raoul but he's gone full salesman the last two weeks.
  • PW
    Patrick W.
    24 September 2020 @ 09:37
    Buy Ash a copy of FIFA 20. Give him a year, and he'll be talking nothing but football.
  • DB
    Dan B.
    24 September 2020 @ 09:33
    I like Dave's perspective - nice one
  • JM
    Jason M.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:47
    Keep the day traders to once a week. Need roger hirst and Raoul once per week each
    • CT
      Chris T.
      24 September 2020 @ 07:26
      this. Can we get Dollar update from Raoul given the breakout higher and maybe some EM fx special guest
  • CD
    C D.
    24 September 2020 @ 05:00
    Intro = epic
  • DF
    Daniel F.
    24 September 2020 @ 03:01
    These chartists have nothing to say and no real analysis of anything. Suggest to keep them to a bare minimum.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 03:20
      C'mon Daniel - that sounds like a rather foolish response :) Did you not hear what I said at the beginning of the segment? My CHARTS got me and my clients (research and money management) short the S&P's Tuesday night/Wed AM at an average entry of 3308. Closed at 3267 and 3240
  • sc
    sung c.
    24 September 2020 @ 03:02
    I agree with Dave that this totally reminded me of trading in 1999-2000 bubble. It was that reminder which made me study the charts of 2000 bubble, and I saw that the correction occured after five up months of parabolic move. August was also five months of up for this parabolic move, and this made me compelled me to liquidate all equities at S&P 3536 level at beginning of Sept. I also remember in 2000, the blow off involved a lot of new retail investors, which is exactly what we witnessed in data from new accounts on Robinhood, etc. The question now of course is, what happens if the second stimulus doesn't happen and the expected vaccine is delayed? The 2000 correction eventually came down for a 80% correction on the Nasdaq. Don't expect that, but would not be surprised by a much greater downside move than many are expecting. As the dipsters keep getting burned, we won't know the end of selling until capitulation is seen. As of yet, we are far from capitulation as the buy-the-dip mentality seems to be alive and well. Just bought some long term Silver calls and holding out to pick up more long term calls on further downside, for both gold, silver, and BTC. Why? Because we know that the second stimulus will eventually come in the next few months. Not to do so would mean a complete waste of the $ spent on the first stimulus. All three can still move further down as desperate people liquidate everything in a down market, but don't want to be too greedy by trying to time everything perfectly, so I'm stair-stepping in at opportune times.
  • BM
    Biju M.
    24 September 2020 @ 01:08
    This would be a great time to bring Prof. Richard Werner to discuss the US banking sector, inflation/deflation argument and bond purchase to understand what's going on under the hood.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:09
      Maybe to Plus? Great 👍🏽
    • BM
      Biju M.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:26
      Please get someone who doesn't cut him off while he is explaining. If it came out too long make in two parts or 10 parts whatever it takes.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    23 September 2020 @ 23:41
    Two Short Term traders in a row? No intro? RVDB is losing me.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:09
      It is even for free!
  • BM
    Biju M.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:11
    It would be interesting to hear the socionomic/Elliot wave view of the market from people at ElliotWave International.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:09
      No thanks
  • HB
    Herman B.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:45
    Dave's opinion on Silver makes sens. However, it better hold $23.11(continuous contracts chart) if breaches that lever, the 200 EMA (around 20 handle) is possible next stop. I don't know, if anyone has a different opinion, would sure appreciate to hear about it. Must admit, ED has been spot on about Sept -October( onward) a spot where Financial markets and economies gap need to start closing. The next couple weeks will be very interesting ....
    • JD
      Jonathan D.
      24 September 2020 @ 00:58
      This is a noob opinion, but both gold and silver seem so negatively correlated to dollar in the extreme short term, that if the dollar strengthens in a risk off environment I’m doubtful these support levels will mean much. I have no little doubt they will immediately rally when the dust settles. Just a noob opinion that will probably be wrong.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:08
      I think is great opportunity to buy gold at 1500-1700 if we can... wonder if they will let us buy so cheap... Technicals say that if 1825 goes we could trade it next month... we shall see being buying at 1400 sold at 1700 and being buying back partly at 1950...
  • JS
    Jon S.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:54
    Dave and Tony are both great! However, maybe chose between one of them in Tuesdays and rest of the days Ed, roger and Raoul. Maybe Ed on Monday; Tuesday technicals; Wednesday Roger; Thursday Roger; Friday Raoul. Of course sometimes Max for sure!
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:05
      And do personally prefer Dave to Tony. I do not see Dave such a pure technical. However, Tony has that pure technical momentum midnset so difficult to grasp for me at least...
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:29
    I have silver support levels at 2369-75 then 2196-2210 then 2002-2008. For spot gold 1864 short term and then strong support at 1820-24. Ed I’m with you on Spurs all the way #COYS
  • BM
    Biju M.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:29
    I am not sure if my views are aligned with Dave's and technically I like elliot wave charting, Tony's remarks gives me a feel of my neighbor's talk on stock market without technical backing.
  • NF
    N. F.
    24 September 2020 @ 00:18
    I can do without the intros but I really like seeing Dave Floyd and Tony Greer on RVDB
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    23 September 2020 @ 23:56
    Interesting take on silver. I hope Dave is right.