Daily Briefing – September 25, 2020

Published on
September 25th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 25, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: September 25th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to analyze the price action in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Ed looks forward to his interview with Leon Cooperman, and Ash interprets the latest economic data, including today's dismal print for durable goods orders. They then consider the latest political news and discuss how the upcoming presidential election will impact markets. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about stocks, credit spreads, and a steepening VIX curve.

Comments

Transcript

  • JH
    Jesse H.
    26 September 2020 @ 19:57
    Usually enjoy the RVDBs, but found the start of this one offensive, frankly, as a Catholic. Please do not make repeated allusions to the trinity - how would you feel if this were your faith?! It is actually blasphemous to keep commenting casually on “unholy trinities.” You wouldn’t making joking allusions to Islam, so please don’t do it to Christianity. Next time you do, I unsubscribe completely. Thank you.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      26 September 2020 @ 19:57
      Wouldn’t make*
    • MD
      Matt D.
      26 September 2020 @ 21:23
      Wouldn't it be blasphemous if they were equating themselves as a holy trinity?
    • DS
      David S.
      27 September 2020 @ 22:46
      Jesse H. - I understand your concern and position. Trying not to offend someone, especially someone's religion, is a sign of respect. In a secular world, it happens. It was important for you to point it out. Now the person can decide if he/she wishes to be respectful. If he/she chooses to be respectful, the person has chosen one path. If he/she chooses not to be respectful, the person has chosen a different path. The fact that your comment will force the person to make a choice is important. In either case, I hope you choose to find a way to continue subscribing and commenting. This may seem esoteric, but respect is fundamental in all relationships. Best of luck. DLS
    • JM
      Justin M.
      28 September 2020 @ 18:21
      Jesse, They were actually talking about the Zelda trinity: the all powerful Triforce! You need to realize that no faith or philosophy have claim on a concept. Not once did the RVDB team mention Christianity; that was something you injected on your own.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 September 2020 @ 00:45
      Justin M. – The first mention was unholy trifecta, once. This switch to unholy trinity, twice. “The Unholy Trinity is the Satanic version of the Christian concept of the Holy Trinity.” I do not think anything negative against Christianity was meant by anyone here. Justin M. was offended and wished to make a comment. It is almost impossible to keep from offending someone today even when you do not wish to offend. I normally get into trouble when trying to make a joke, as in this case. I do not believe, however, that Jesse H. was mistaken in the word that offended him. Let’s forgive and forget from here. DLS
  • BK
    Brian K.
    28 September 2020 @ 22:36
    Election day event , Thumbs UP !!!!!
  • ES
    Elizabeth S.
    28 September 2020 @ 18:49
    I would love to see a video on what the different electoral outcomes would do to markets long and short term.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    28 September 2020 @ 17:14
    I think the political angle to the macro environment would be a worthy endeavor, I would hate to see it pull away RV resources from other segments of content. I will watch content from the brilliant content providers pontificating on macro outcomes, but not the politics of the day. But I have no interest in political banter/arguments. There is too much of that as soon as you open your eyes in the morning. I want to know what I don’t know or have not thought of...
  • RM
    Robert M.
    27 September 2020 @ 00:56
    Found Ed's comment that if Biden gets elected, we will have massive deficit spending going forward somewhat humorous. As a republican, don't mind saying that is what we have going on right now. Let's just hope that the govt will focus on infrastructure investments that may have an ROI vs just giving money away, some of which finds its way into the hands of those that actually need it.
    • JK
      John K.
      28 September 2020 @ 14:55
      Also an actual increase in taxes to help pay for his policies
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    28 September 2020 @ 09:48
    Election Day Event would be great. WOuld love to see you guys talk to Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory and discuss narrative
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:51
    I really hope Ed is right about Trump's irresponsible demagoguery regarding the validity of the election having a negative effect on his own campaign. It's a pity that the rest of the "free world" doesn't get to vote for who leads it. As a concerned inhabitant of that free world and long time admirer of the USA I truly hope you will collectively decide you do actually wish to remain a democracy governed by the rule of law and do not wish to see a charlatan who panders to people's worst instincts remain as your elected leader. I believe you deserve better and fervently hope you will allow the rest of us to finally be able to stop watching the Trump clan slither all over the American body politic. It's like watching your naive teenage daughter being manhandled by a drunk slime ball at a party and not being able to intervene. Please don't make us watch that for another 4 years.
    • CW
      Corey W.
      26 September 2020 @ 00:47
      3/4 of Canadians completely agree in a very recent poll, so I second your thoughts
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      26 September 2020 @ 02:41
      Marcus..you obviously get your news from CNN... A truly lopsided fake news organization. There is another side to this story and as a non citizen it's better to keep your opinion to yourself. IMO
    • MV
      Michael V.
      27 September 2020 @ 19:03
      Unfortunately Biden is a terrible alternative.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 September 2020 @ 00:30
      Any port in a storm. DLS
  • DO
    David O.
    27 September 2020 @ 19:00
    Heavy left leaning.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    26 September 2020 @ 03:46
    I hope the Adults win the election.
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      26 September 2020 @ 08:24
      Whoever wins the election will have been adult for a long, long, long time.
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      26 September 2020 @ 21:04
      That said the phrase 'once a man, twice a child' comes to mind
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      27 September 2020 @ 16:11
      Thanks for this, made me chuckle.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    27 September 2020 @ 02:34
    Ed, I think your proposed approach to cover the election Is bang on. The economic impacts on different aspects of the economy would be great
  • CA
    Chad A.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:26
    I think some commentary on how political outcomes could or would influence the market would be great content. It may just be my mistaken perspective, but I think in 2016 most people were wrong in their view of how markets would be influenced by the outcome. If nothing else, maybe someone can tell us whether to long or short ES on election night at about 8 pm!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 September 2020 @ 01:01
      In 2016, markets crashed in the overnight trading fearing a Trump election. Then came back strong. Personally, think it is hard to predict. The easy answer is that the market will favor a Trump election. But articles have been written saying Wall Street may be OK with this democratic ticket. May be hard to trade around whoever wins.
  • mn
    man n.
    26 September 2020 @ 10:06
    It's Friday, where's Raoul? 😢
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 September 2020 @ 00:59
      Have shared with the staff that viewers like consistency and to schedule certain days for certain topics. Seeing that now with Tony Greer. Ash and Ed did a good job today, but your comment re-enforces viewer's consumption patterns for info.
  • RL
    Ron L.
    26 September 2020 @ 23:33
    To me it’s all about where the USD is heading in the short term and through the end of this year...
  • CM
    Cory M.
    26 September 2020 @ 22:52
    Ash and Ed, I know that Raoul is a major draw on Friday but I must offer a pat on the back to you two. I feel as though there is a perceptible change in the quality of conversation, information, questioning, and commentary you two offer now compared April and the start of our Daily Briefing segment. You two are both clearly getting smarter! Also, it takes tremendous skill and intellect to interview with the quality of people like Kyle Bass, Raoul Pal, mike Green, Grant Williams (and others) and your capacities to engage in similar ways is also approaching these greats! It brings up the quality of content you guys take part in across the board and I thank you for it. Great work.
  • JB
    Julie B.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:12
    Please keep political conversations out of your shows.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      26 September 2020 @ 20:25
      Except as it relates to investing
  • MS
    Mark S.
    26 September 2020 @ 17:09
    America had hanging chads in 2000 and survived. America had a financial crisis in 2008 election and survived. Yet the East Coast Blue Checkmark Crew has to spend the last 10 minutes of the DB double downing on dictator conspiracy theories and quoting Senator Warren and Sasse. I must have missed Raoul's "sell gold because Trump will be a dictator" update. I'd rather listen to that recent millennial guest explain how he doesn't understand how his stock picking algorithm works.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    26 September 2020 @ 15:40
    Great Episode Ash/ED As far as content Sofar ED has been the most accurate on the markets with his Sept/Oct call.So i want him to keep doing exactly what he and Roger are doing with respect with what is going on with markets. it's cool to see some technical traders come in and share some important charts in the markets.The occasional Raoul post is always nice as well..The D.B for me has been just that. A briefing on current events in the markets and how they migh affect things going forward..Keep up the great work and don't try to radically change thins..All The Best
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    26 September 2020 @ 15:34
    The "unholy trinity" is a great group!
  • KK
    Kyle K.
    26 September 2020 @ 04:43
    Did you guys kick Max off for good bc of boomer tantrum? -not Max's mom
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      26 September 2020 @ 15:32
      I’m just busy doing other things and these guys (plus our new guests) are doing a great job.
  • JM
    James M.
    26 September 2020 @ 15:21
    Jes - an analysis of presidential candidate policy on economy going forward would be very helpful
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    26 September 2020 @ 15:11
    Yes, an election day analysis of potential market/economy impacts of stated plans of not only the presidential candidates but members of the House and Senate as well. We could get gridlock on one hand and stimulus out the wazoo on the other. Interesting times...
  • AK
    Arthur K.
    26 September 2020 @ 14:06
    Thanks Ash Bennington for trying to steer DB away from political opinion. BTW copper was up on Fri
  • JW
    Jim W.
    26 September 2020 @ 13:34
    I'd like a deep dive into the candidates' economic policies.
  • XJ
    Xavier J.
    26 September 2020 @ 12:09
    Stuart Sweet President Capitol Analysts Network May be a great resource for the topic in question!
  • CH
    Clive H.
    26 September 2020 @ 11:08
    Yes please - what does the election mean for markets / economy
  • PS
    Paul S.
    26 September 2020 @ 08:52
    Hi, absolutely would like to have a weekly (at least) update on the effect that the election will have on the markets, both the US elections and Brexit if possible please. Thanks
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    26 September 2020 @ 06:30
    Yes having an analysis on possible election outcomes and its effect on the markets is a great idea Ed!
  • BB
    Bhaumik B.
    26 September 2020 @ 06:15
    Election Day is a great idea. Obviously as long as it stays focused on the impact on different asset classes.
  • KT
    Keven T.
    26 September 2020 @ 03:37
    Im trying to determine the risks to markets of each party getting in and the strengths that each party may provide. Then hedge both ways on each. Rather than predict an outcome, just make sure all bases are covered. Great job Real Vision. . Thanks for your access to insights.
  • CC
    Cornelius C.
    26 September 2020 @ 03:16
    lol...good news is bad news
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    26 September 2020 @ 03:03
    Yes to election day discussion group. And thanks for the brief.
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:01
    I think a deep dive utilizing various perspectives focused on the investment implications (across all assets incl. BC and PMs of course) is a good plan but it's a tight rope to not spin up partisan commentary (so good luck with that.) The social impacts including COVID response as well as how the mass protests will evolve/continue is part of that analysis and that in itself is highly partisan. So you have to maintain the high ground and with it, RVs credibility, while attempting to discuss a polarizing issue in these most polarized of times. So is it better do this before the election or shortly after? After allows the focus to be on the new (or old) reality that we face as investors and that may be less contentious than attempting it before where two speculative outcomes are in play. I don't believe we need to change our investment focuses immediately the day after to be on the right side of history (short of the market tanking limit down.)
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      26 September 2020 @ 02:57
      Kelly ...Well thought out comment .... polarizing times for sure and at this point everything is a toss up. My guess is that there will be time after to make some moves....however remember 2016 and the day after the election(Friday) and the market tanked...... By Monday a complete reversal....so you'll have to let the dust settle.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:53
    Yes, an economic impact analysis of Dems v GOP policy would be of interest.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      26 September 2020 @ 02:30
      Absolutely. That being said, the discussion will need to be done through non-linear thinking. Mr Trump's policies haven't even started to kick in yet. at the moment, we are living President Obama's policies'.
  • BB
    Bob B.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:23
    Ash - I maybe wrong but it looks like your camera is focusing on your fancy mic and not your face?
  • EG
    Emanuel G.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:17
    It was a good briefing but what I saw in the market and the dollar index or forex contradicted each other any comments on that?
  • DT
    David T.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:59
    Next three weeks will define the next 3 to 5 years of markets?? The ride will be wilder than that.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      26 September 2020 @ 01:55
      David, that is a humbling thought, must admit. A perfect Straddle, hence betting on volatility really. Notice, USA is split right in the middle, by this I mean, electoral college, let's say, republican. And for popular vote, Democrats. I'm with ED, Real vision should have have a political segment. "Facts do not cease to exist simply because they are ignored" (Aldous Huxley).
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    26 September 2020 @ 01:29
    Thanks Ash, Ed and Jack!
  • jG
    james G.
    26 September 2020 @ 01:20
    yes lets dig in and try to figure out who will do what if elected ..
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    26 September 2020 @ 01:16
    if the unemployment number is so inaccurate why do we refer to it as meaningful. I think this has been going on since GFC1 (at least) when a couple million dropped out of the workforce and was born out by the lack of any wage inflation in an economy which had blown by the benchmark used for full employment. The number seems to be pretty much useless as a tool for weighing the health of the economy and is probably being used as a way to mislead. I think the same way about the expectations merry go round: almost without meaning.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:29
    A blue wave? You guys have to get out of whatever bubble you're in.
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      26 September 2020 @ 01:03
      Ed merely referenced the possibility, which is a valid point given all the data and polls we're seeing from multiple sources. Politics is an unavoidable piece of the investment strategy puzzle, and if we don't give the interviewers room to "wiggle", then we're just limiting the various perspective(s) that we all need to hear, and the potential outcomes we should all be considering. And by the way, I'm a Libertarian.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    26 September 2020 @ 00:39
    I think the election content might be a waste of time. There's no point in postulating about the effects of the election. Even if you did have good insights into what the outcome would be what could anyone really do with that information? We're in noman's land. If I told you a year ago what 2020 would be like would you have thought we'd be in arms length of all time highs right now?
  • MC
    Mark C.
    26 September 2020 @ 00:39
    Yes. Please. Holy smokes. That would be awesome.
  • AC
    Adam C.
    26 September 2020 @ 00:13
    Yes, Yes, Yes. Please bring on an Election interview campaign. So important given the tumultuous events of this year. Scenario analysis with key outcomes to look for would be great. There have got to be clear ways to trade it.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:43
    Hey Boys! https://rickmanelius.com/article/interesting-boring-overused-and-lifeless-word
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:27
    Florida announced today that it is entering phase 3, i.e. no mandatory masks, all businesses can legally be open, etc. New York may be moving in the opposite direction, but its a mixed bag. Its not at all that the US is going into lock down again. Please either speak to specifics or best not to generalize.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:21
    thanks Ash Ed and Jack excellent show regarding the election I am not from USA but the whole world is watching just in what way each candidate you see will handle the economy under the present circumstances
  • MD
    Matt D.
    25 September 2020 @ 23:04
    Thanks Ash and Ed. Interesting insights - I was wondering a similar thing in that there seems to be an acceptance of the markets going up regardless of the underlying fundamentals/data - as if there's an attitude of where else can I invest. New rule is there is no rule. Election coverage - thanks for taking it on. Sometimes people chose to be unbiased to an extreme, and it makes out each choice is as good as the other, when they're not. How to cover that honestly - hard to do. Am I allowed to say I find Trump and Biden as funny as each other in their own ways - Trump says ridiculous stuff, borderline lies, while Biden's gaffs are priceless (not making fun of him if he has a condition/dementia which he denies). You won't please everyone. I am non-US so this part (the comedy) doesn't bother me that much - its just funny nothing else.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:39
    Loved it, Jack: The unholy Trinity: "Sign me up!" Ash, glad to see you, but aren't you on vacation?
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      25 September 2020 @ 23:02
      Kind of a micro-mini vacation. It’s over now...
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:40
    "is is is" - why?
  • eh
    eric h.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:38
    gotta watch the red vs blue to understand what may be coming, great neutral coverage!! keep it coming
  • DW
    Dean W.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:31
    Very nice update from the “Unholy Trinity”. Looking forward to the Lee Cooperman interview.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    25 September 2020 @ 22:17
    Do you think that dutiable good are up so much because everyone is learning to live in a different way and need new product to do that? E.g computer supplies are increasing because home working is causing it. After that shift does it go the other way?