Daily Briefing – September 29, 2020

Published on
September 29th, 2020
Duration
28 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 29, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: September 29th, 2020 • Duration: 28 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to break down recent price action in markets. Tony provides his latest thoughts about what's happening in the energy sector and where oil is headed as we begin to close out 2020, reviews his stance on the tech rally and its sub-sectors, and offers his perspective on the financials sector. Ash and Tony also discuss market sentiment with the U.S. presidential election fanning the flames of anxiety and the risk of COVID-19 still looming. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin looks ahead at what investors will be watching for in the first US presidential debate and its impact on continued market volatility.

Comments

Transcript

  • HB
    Herman B.
    1 October 2020 @ 00:08
    Thanks ED.
  • GH
    Gloria H.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:01
    I appreciate Tony’s views on the market, but can we please avoid “Harris/Biden” conspiracy theorizing?
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      29 September 2020 @ 23:57
      It's out in the open, there is not much debate about it...
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      30 September 2020 @ 00:01
      Why did "Kaine/Clinton" or "Pence/Trump" never happen... Biden has even said he may only serve one term... that is unheard of in US presidential politics...
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 September 2020 @ 01:03
      Rutherford B. Hayes and James K. Polk pledged to serve only one term. Not unheard of in American politics.
    • AT
      Adelina T.
      30 September 2020 @ 08:59
      I had always thought Tony was a smart guy with an interesting perspective. Then comes the moment he peddels far right wing conspiracy theories, questions corona problems after it killed 200 000 americans, and calls the Mueller investigation a nothing burger... I now seriously doubt Tony's ability to analyze and separating facts from personal opinion. Diverse opinions and views are important and a key in RV, but it needs to be based on facts and within reason. What's next pizza gate? Way below par, and not well handled by Ash. I expect more of RV.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:46
      I think Real Vision subscribers should look up the word "conspiracy." A presidential candidate putting his running mate first is high level American INSANITY. It's not a conspiracy. The Mueller Report was a complete and total HOAX that the nation was put through for two years. It is not conspiracy that the report yielded NO CHARGES of collusion or obstruction of justice - because it never happened. This is NOT conspiracy sports fans. I hate to break it to you.
    • PM
      Paul M.
      30 September 2020 @ 21:57
      He tried to keep in but he couldn't help himself. Trumpskull!
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    30 September 2020 @ 20:10
    This was great! Thanks a lot!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    30 September 2020 @ 19:19
    When NFL games start getting postponed because of the Covid, then shit is getting real.
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    30 September 2020 @ 18:54
    As a computer programmer, I have never seen a comments section programmatically managed using sentiment analysis. Yes, they usually sort on a time basis (most recent at top and trailing downward over time), they sometimes sort on a voting basis (most up-voted first, trailing downward with less and less votes), but I have never seen a comments section sorted using sentiment analysis. With sentiment analysis programming libraries already in wide spread production and use, they could easily be used to sort comments from (most positive to most negative). Think about this... It would reward, teach and force users to communicate more effectively. It is possible to vehemently disagree with someone in an incredibly positive way, in other words politely. As Real Vision is newly formed and not an ad based business model, may I suggest you implement this process to avoid your community's similar destruction to that of Twitter and other social media. This community has done well in remaining focused on "not being dicks", but it has been getting worse as people are beginning to lose focus on the open-minded learning process and forgetting to show respect to those trying to help others by sharing their insights. I have heard Raoul mention he hopes this site will be "different" from Twitter, but I ask you how much different can it be if it is created identically?
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      30 September 2020 @ 19:02
      Sorry for breaking the fourth wall and speaking about site construction, but I care about this site enough to want to protect it. Also, this is a problem affecting all social media and one in which ad based communication feeds have little motivation to address, as controversy, hate, drama all promote user participation. Unfortunately, this increased participation is largely pointless and negative. If a communication strategy, such as sentiment analysis comment sorting could promote a more productive communication and learning process amongst its users, it might in fact change the world.
  • GH
    Guy H.
    30 September 2020 @ 10:55
    Serves as a good reminder of what shallow conspiratorial commentary looks like. Wouldn’t have been too far out of place as a moderate Fox Business segment. Disappointing RV.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:22
      what's the matter? Non-leftist content got you down?
    • GH
      Guy H.
      30 September 2020 @ 16:21
      I don'r come to RV for thin skinned COVID trutherism, but thanks anyway.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      30 September 2020 @ 18:24
      Guy understand the purpose here. I am here to grow and learn about market trading and investing through the primary tool of an open mind. I am learning to quantify other's emotional sentiment not be blinded by my own. I have great respect for the level of synthesis Tony commands, which is highly evident in the complexity and relative coherence of the information he kindly shares with us here. We should show respect to those who kindly try to help us.
    • GH
      Guy H.
      30 September 2020 @ 18:47
      I've been in the banking business for 30 years. BS is easy to spot.
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    30 September 2020 @ 09:22
    "We can't stop the world for this..." because he feels kids should be able to play football. 200k people dead in the US alone. If we didn't shut things down, it would be over 1M. The virus does damage to our systems even if we don't have symptoms. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-can-wreck-your-heart-even-if-you-havent-had-any-symptoms/ I'm sorry you want the stock market to only go higher, Tony.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:22
      I'm sorry you don't know what markets are Lukas.
    • DM
      Don M.
      30 September 2020 @ 15:48
      Sad Tony is so insecure he has to post responses. It's why I cancelled his newsletter. Very much driven by politics and not tech analysis.
    • RK
      Rafal K.
      30 September 2020 @ 18:01
      Look, every year 40k die in car accidents, 40k die with firearm injuries, millions die from cancer and heart attacks. I think 'saving one life makes it all meaningful' BS needs to go away. There are risks and benefits of lock downs, if you don't understand that, I'm sorry..
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      30 September 2020 @ 18:27
      Don't miss the point guys, an open-mind in not offended by disagreements, only closed-off little ones. If you are not here to learn, you are waisting your time and ours.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    30 September 2020 @ 18:25
    really enjoy when you have Tony on. Straightforward, and to the point, and finally someone on RV who's not espousing the virus nonsense.
  • GT
    Gene T.
    30 September 2020 @ 17:34
    Tony - are you still a big seller of a non-peaceful transition of power? The President refused to answer a direct question whether he would commit to a peaceful transition.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 September 2020 @ 16:17
    People are interviewed to hear and understand their opinions. Mr. Greer is a very knowledgeable trader. He tells it as he sees it. You do not need to agree. The more points of view you understand the better you will be able to trade. RV is not an echo chamber! If you disagree say it. Do not attack the person for the point of view. Understand it as his/her point of view. DLS
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 September 2020 @ 17:31
      Well said, DLS. Tony has his views but I think he expressed those views as neutrally and as market-oriented as he could.
  • DM
    Don M.
    30 September 2020 @ 15:56
    I didn't hear the whole thing before my last comment. Come on RV. We don't need an essentially Robin Hooder spouting his political beliefs. This guy is a joke. Seriously.
  • DM
    Don M.
    30 September 2020 @ 15:47
    Notice the volume of down votes. Really? The technician is looking forward to Trump's winning the debate to base his investments on? LOL I thought technicians were supposed to be agnostic. Really wasted time.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    30 September 2020 @ 11:01
    My favourite daily briefing of the week - A must for all bull junkies!
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      30 September 2020 @ 14:26
      Agreed. I am so bearish at the moment, I need an opposing view. Thanks TG
  • CP
    Carlos P.
    30 September 2020 @ 13:58
    Great analysis by Tony. Honestly I don't always agree on his views but it is always refreshing to watch him. Thanks for another great DB!
  • MA
    Mike A.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:31
    So far Tony's bullish view on the markets has been a bit sketchy not really seeing this recent pull back coming with all the speculation going on in retail and call options at the end of Sept given the breath was horrible and how obvious it was. He puts alot of his sentiment on the FED put and inflation which is surprising given the data shows no inflation what so ever and oil still coming down just about everyday.So I wonder what Tony is seeing in the data that backs his view on inflation other than just the FED talking about it. Irregardless of that I always appreciate hearing his view on markets..BTW.AAPL 200 DSMA is currently @ 85 and the 100 Day @ 100.00
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:28
      YES I know I had the AAPL chart numbers wrong - next time I'm just going to turn around to the computer and check. No - I've pointed a lot of stuff out in my note. If it doesn't alll come through here - I'll keep it in mind. But I do hawk headline inflation and several other market based inflation stats. There's NO ARGUING that TIPs are off to the races and breakevens are bid. Right?
  • jG
    james G.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:59
    Tony Greer is both a wolf and a dog. The wolf stands on the mountain top and surveys all below and before it. it sees everything and makes it's plans to hunt. The dog lives in the moment, it sees only now and acts accordingly. I want to be Tony Greer. I want to see the markets and have a framework. When I am in the markets I want to trade just what is in front of me.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:26
      that's all I ever try to do my man. Loved the analogy. WOOF.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 September 2020 @ 00:53
    I love TG Tuesdays. That said, I'm not sure I agree on the energy sector. The historical subsidies are potentially peeling off and the US most importantly doesn't have control over it from a consumption perspective. I agree on the technology front. It's complicated, but tech is where all the productivity gains are. On the tech side, how bad the analytics are on this companies just illustrates how far behind the markets are on how tech works...
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:25
      No the energy trade is just a huge sentiment fade. There's no arguing sentiment is at zero but also that the stocks can go there too!
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    30 September 2020 @ 05:09
    I could not trade as Tony does, because I prefer some understanding of why, not simply what. He clearly understands "what" the market is likely to do, regardless of "why". I can clearly see the intelligence, experience and intuition he has developed and uses in his trading framework. However making money is not enough for me. Unfortunately trading/investing is a process of discovery for me because I need to know "why". This may explain why I have given up on equities, as the "why" is very well hidden these days. It has been a very expensive education in what the stock market really is and I am still grateful despite its harshness. I have been short the major indicies since March's bottom and have paid a hefty price, stubbornly demanding the market "make sense". It is a lesson in cognitive biases, in that I refuse to close out despite "reality" telling me I am wrong. My trade's only hope is to remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational. (We all know who loses this bet.) Despite the financial cost and largely due to Real Vision's amazing resources, I am grateful for turning the corner on wondering why things happen, towards understanding why things happen. In the end, what I want more than to make money is to find a way to live a life managing my own financial assets in such a way that I can support myself. I am transitioning from the labor market (job) to the financial market where my efforts 100% benefit me. It is a journey and an amazing learning experience. I enjoy every day's lessons.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:24
      totally fair point Shawn.... I used to have to have the thesis correct myself. Then I pivoted to the art of trading markets to be profitable as my only concern. Loved this thoughtful comment though.
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    30 September 2020 @ 09:08
    On tech: I have a hard time believing that the Nvidia/ARM deal will be allowed to go through.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:23
      that's nice - the semi-conductor space is following through.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    30 September 2020 @ 10:58
    insightful and objective market analysis by a pro who is well aware of the limits of his knowledge.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      30 September 2020 @ 13:21
      thanks Russell - I've only ever been a student of the markets.
  • RT
    Rupert T.
    30 September 2020 @ 00:55
    good job on the virus BS - here it is in every detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3494&v=RY6NiavVp0E&feature=emb_title
    • GH
      Gloria H.
      30 September 2020 @ 01:27
      Please, let’s not use this as a forum for fake news and conspiracy theories. https://www.thejournal.ie/dolores-cahill-coronavirus-video-facebook-twitter-5148488-Aug2020/
    • MT
      Mike T.
      30 September 2020 @ 08:33
      Rupert, are you familiar with the work of Dunning & Kruger? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      30 September 2020 @ 09:20
      Lol
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    30 September 2020 @ 08:41
    Great breakfast show! Love the 'daily briefing'!
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    30 September 2020 @ 06:38
    @RV / Great Content. I live in Europe and start every day with Bulletproof coffee and Daily Briefing. I would love to see RV do an interview or analysis into share buyback. It's terrifying to me that share buyback has once again become normal financial vernacular yet was illegal until the '80s and is largely blamed for 1920 crash. You guys are the pros, but I think it could add a lot of value to viewers.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    30 September 2020 @ 04:57
    I’m preparing to teach online again and upping my tech in preparation. I bought the same ridiculous gaming streamer microphone that Ash has; its grown on me.
  • JW
    Jay W.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:50
    I never understand people giving downvotes or leaving comments like “awful” here. In my (Pro subscriber) opinion literally all Real Vision videos are great, some even more than others! Don’t think I’ve ever given a downvote to anything. It’s great to be able to be exposed to all these different views in their full glory. I am not a bull but being exposed to Tony’s general bullishness helps keep my biases in check. Great video.
    • JS
      Jake S.
      30 September 2020 @ 00:03
      Holy cow a PRO SUBSCRIBER!!! bIG mAn On CaMpUs...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      30 September 2020 @ 01:51
      Jake s. The first rule of the RV community is don't be a dick. Thank you.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    30 September 2020 @ 00:48
    Interesting political take from Tony on the democratic ticket and Harris. This was a headline in the Wall Street Journal in August: "As Kamala Harris Joins Biden Ticket, Wall Street Sighs in Relief - Wall Street’s warm welcome to Joe Biden’s running mate reflects a belief that tougher financial regulation isn’t a top priority." And from CNBC: "Wall Street leaders on Tuesday cheered Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate in the presidential election." Recall markets selling off big in the overnights when it looked like Trump would win. Investors always surprise. Markets could very well rally on a Biden win looking forward to stability around foreign trade/tariffs, less personal attacks in the press, a potential calming of the domestic protests, and less revolving door (with associated book deals) in the administration. Markets always seem to surprise on the political consensus view.
  • SJ
    Steve J.
    30 September 2020 @ 00:01
    Not a fan.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    29 September 2020 @ 22:41
    First segment sounds like it should be on Bloomberg. Sorry
    • GB
      Griffin B.
      29 September 2020 @ 23:01
      I mean the first segment is them just reading parts from articles posted either there, WSJ, or FT
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      29 September 2020 @ 23:58
      Long-term, RealVision could even compete with Bloomberg and CNBC someday
  • DL
    David L.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:52
    Always some food for thought - thanks, everybody.
  • JS
    Jake S.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:43
    Awful
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:28
    thanks for all the knowledge
  • MD
    Matt D.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:17
    Great DB Ash and Tony as usual. The Kamala H tag-team idea is interesting - it went underground for a while (to me, outside the US). Interesting thinking too if the VIX bids evaporate. A lot of these unknowns is reactionary trading ? so tricky.
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    29 September 2020 @ 23:12
    Apple 200 DMA is all the way at $85.80 (closed today at $114.09).