Ed and Ash’s Holiday Send-Off: Looking Ahead to 2021 (LIVE)

Published on
December 23rd, 2020
Duration
53 minutes

Taking Things in Stride: Fiscal Stimulus, COVID-19, and Inflation Expectations


Ed and Ash’s Holiday Send-Off: Looking Ahead to 2021 (LIVE)

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison

Published on: December 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 53 minutes

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from Ed and Ash live at 4:30 PM ET. They will answer audience questions, provide an update on what they're seeing in markets this holiday season, and look ahead to the opportunities and macro risks for 2021.

Comments

Transcript

  • pd
    preston d.
    6 January 2021 @ 04:18
    Mike Green will be interviewing Josh Wolfe? To quote Mark Dow: "Long popcorn."
  • JD
    JUGAKALPA D.
    3 January 2021 @ 21:11
    one of the best sessions of daily briefing!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    30 December 2020 @ 02:41
    On the theme of survivorship and the 1990s, and thanks to NY Times, here are best performing stocks for each year in the 1990s: 1990 - AST Research - made PCs. Peaked at $32. sold to Samsung for $5. Shutdown 2 years after acquisition. 1991 - IVAX Pharmaceuticals - Bought by TEVA for $7 billion. Couldn't find peak valuation. 1992 - Newbridge Networks - Peak price $280, acquired at $39. 1993 - Glenayre Techonology - pagers - high in 2000 was $12. Trading at $.77 in 2001. 1994 - Microtouch Systems - touch screens - brand still around - acquired by MMM for $21. Traded $35 two yrs prior. 1995 - Biovail International - Traded as high a $232 in 2000s, down to $14. 1996 - Viasoft - acquired by Compuware. High $32. Acquisition offer $9. 1997 - Yahoo - High of $475. Bought by Verizon for $4.8 billion. Stock trading $45 to $50 on offer. 1998 - Amazon - $94 to $7 in early 2000s. Didn't reclaim high until 2007. Great run since then. 1999 - Qualcomm - gained 2,619% in hot year. Peak $88. Traded down to $14. Didn't pass high until this 2020.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      30 December 2020 @ 02:50
      On an annual return basis, you had one winner out of that bunch from their peak highs assuming you held on to the stock in the downturn. 10% success rate. While you eventually made money on Qualcomm (in summer of 2020), its annualized stock return is 2.6% from peak, lower than treasuries.
  • AD
    Alexander D.
    29 December 2020 @ 23:40
    Does anyone have a link for the century bond from Peru for those of us without a bloomberg? I just want to follow the dumpster fire and see how much it moved this past week.
  • BC
    Bill C.
    24 December 2020 @ 06:15
    At 47 minutes a chart is shown illustrating the depth of various recessions based on job loss and time. In the recessions previous to 2007 was it not the case we as a country and the West in general made/manufactured most of what was purchased. As jobs were exported to the likes of China and their exportation of deflation, service jobs took over our economy. A large percentage of those jobs were make work, and little more. To make things easier for an economy that's being hollowed out the Fed looked like heroes was they stimulated with 30-40 years of dropping rates. Everyone felt good because they could buy imported goods at prices that didn't go up...even for decades. An increasing number were/are employed in economically precarious jobs doing fundamentally unimportant work. And increasingly being paid subpar wages. Meanwhile, the real work of manufacturing - "body shop" industries, as labeled by the likes of Chanos - is employing millions upon millions in China, etc. And, of course, over this period government entitlements expanded greatly...and promises of lifetime support by government seeped deep into peoples mind, so they didn't do anything for themselves to prepare for retirement multiplied by the fact of fewer real jobs in peoples fields. In previous recessionary times the jobs slowly came back. People needed shoes, jeans...all kinds of goods and people had to go back to work to make them. And the government wasn't printing money willy nilly to send checks to people and corporations. By 2007 the economy had perhaps hit its most hollowed out point. For various reasons people weren't needed. Their make work jobs were never that essential to a vibrant economy. And we know recently how much money has been printed to get us off that most recent (scary as hell) low point. I think we have to look further back than just a few years to see what has happened to our economy - it goes back decades. It probably correlates directly to the length of the "debt super cycle" as it is called, which correlates directly to our hollowing out. And this isn't just the United States. Isn't it the case that entire Italian villages are inhabited by low wage Chinese workers that make "Made In Italy" garments...shoes specifically that I know of. I assume this and more can be easily extrapolated to many other industries. (Want a list of names?) I just don't see how we can get back to a full, dynamic economy if we don't rebuild our manufacturing...you know...the "body shop" industries, the one's that take more and more people to make things as more and more goods are sold. This is what's been dying for the last 50 or so years. And if we don't we will continue to see the deterioration of the individual, the family, towns, cities, states, and the country...the deterioration of the individual most of all. With the destruction of self-initiative and self-motivation, accelerated by promised cradle-to-grave welfare, first on the list. Color me 'not a globalist.'
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      29 December 2020 @ 13:41
      Yes, I do want a list of names. Thanks
  • ER
    Emma R.
    24 December 2020 @ 09:23
    I don’t really understand the latest hype about Ripple XRP token. I’ve watched this space for a while and seen so many people get taken in. Ripple originally named the token after the company and marketed it as a security token before putting more distance between themselves and their crypto security and rebranding it XRP. At this point they tried to make it look as if banks were using it for international transfers as a utility token when in actual fact, if they were using anything it was a Ripple proprietary product....not XRP. This token has been a way for the company to steadily dump on its believers for many years and I’m happy the SEC are finally catching up with them.
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 December 2020 @ 03:36
      XRP is totally manipulated by Ripple. I've been telling everyone that XRP has become completely devalued by the complete manipulation of XRP by Ripple management, by the continuous creation of XRP shares compared to when it was first created. If you're going to own XRP, you should own U.S. dollar or Chinese Yuan instead. Of course, if you're smart, you'd own BTC and gold instead of any of those.
  • AS
    Alan S.
    25 December 2020 @ 06:18
    Great chat as always. One question. Ed suggested that if BTC "goes parabolic" the US regulators are likely to clamp down on it just as they've done with Ripple - but I thought the SEC ruled some time ago that both Bitcoin and Ethereum were NOT securities? Meanwhile, Merry Christmas to you guys and all the RV team
    • AS
      Alan S.
      25 December 2020 @ 06:23
      PS - just found the links - it was the SEC chairman himself who said that. Can they go back on that? Are they held to it? https://www.invigorlaw.com/sec-says-cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-ethereum-are-not-securities/ and https://news.bitcoin.com/sec-chairman-confirms-cryptocurrencies-like-ethereum-are-not-securities/
    • AS
      Atul S.
      28 December 2020 @ 16:45
      They did.
    • sc
      sung c.
      29 December 2020 @ 03:32
      The major difference between XRP and BTC is that XRP can be created, controlled, and manipulated by Ripple. Just look at how many XRP have been created by Ripple since its inception. BTC is finite and completely decentralized and uncontrolled by any single entity.
  • ES
    Erik S.
    27 December 2020 @ 09:44
    Happy new years and great points BTC is coming into the mainstream and Libertarians can bury their BTC in their backyard next to their gold.
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      28 December 2020 @ 22:01
      Even though I have some gold buried in my backyard I still got a chuckle from your comment, thanks.
  • AS
    Atul S.
    28 December 2020 @ 16:44
    Ed - we already have all those bitcoin transactions taxed with capital gains (in the UK and I believe in the US).
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    24 December 2020 @ 10:37
    Would someone be interested in a debate between Russell Napier and Harry Dent?? That is, the ''incarnation'' of inflation/reflation versus deflation??
    • JS
      Jon S.
      26 December 2020 @ 17:40
      Good idea for plus
    • DD
      David D.
      28 December 2020 @ 11:46
      oh, yes, please
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    28 December 2020 @ 02:22
    re free crypto content on RV: is there a parallel to be drawn to the saying: if it's free, you are the product?
  • th
    terry h.
    28 December 2020 @ 01:12
    I look forward to your new format on Jan 2021 because currently you have made the beginners content rather slim to useless.
  • DG
    Daniel G.
    27 December 2020 @ 09:40
    TSLA vs. AMZN... what I see is Musk following Bezos in terms of gaming capital markets. Musk has engineered a cost of capital which doesn’t correspond with the risk/return profile of the underlying cash flows of the business. This is the real genius... the financial innovation is the runway for genuine product / market innovation.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    27 December 2020 @ 00:58
    You guys are great! HNY gents!
  • GL
    Gary L.
    26 December 2020 @ 22:50
    Does anyone on this site remember precious metals? Or is RV going all-in on Crypto Fever to the moon! Sure seems that way lads! Gary L (former precious metals dealer).
  • JS
    Jon S.
    26 December 2020 @ 17:43
    Can you put RVDB behind the paywall of RV Essential? Just an idea...
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    26 December 2020 @ 11:43
    Daily Brief the best add to RVTV and great discussions this year. Don’t listen to all of them but usually at least 2/3 a week. Is Tesla the next Amazon or the next Enron, interesting and amusing discussions, very relevant as a theme of comparison but neither relevant to me individually as off the scale from any sort of investable valuation. Ed and Ash great work keep it up :).
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    25 December 2020 @ 11:52
    Roger hirst would be nice to see next week in a regular way. Happy days off
  • NC
    NATHAN C.
    25 December 2020 @ 10:27
    Merry Christmas, and if we all end up over a barrel fire, let's make the best of it.
  • Bp
    Brent p.
    25 December 2020 @ 02:50
    What a nice conversation - really enjoyed hearing you guys talk and I learned a lot from your thoughtfulness(es)!
  • SC
    Steven C.
    24 December 2020 @ 20:42
    TESLA is still dependent on regulatory credit sales to make a profit - in 3Q they had a net loss of about $70 million before selling $400 million in credits. So, when the reg credits market disappears as the other auto makers bring their EVs on line, how viable will TSLA be going forward? They are cutting corners with manufacturing quality and warranties and repair support.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    24 December 2020 @ 19:20
    Peace and joy to everyone that works on Real Vision DB. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas.
  • MH
    Mike H.
    24 December 2020 @ 08:22
    First time comment but I watched nearly every video this year, I'm sure I speak for all members when I say we really appreciate all the work you guys do! It's sure been a hell of a year but at least a positive I can take from it is I feel like I've learned and grown so much as an investor, thanks in no small part to you guys at Real Vision. Looking forward to all the awesome content to come. Happy holidays everyone
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 17:00
      Thanks, Mike. Happy holidays.
  • PP
    Peter P.
    24 December 2020 @ 10:45
    Bravo Ash & Ed - a spectacular sign-off in message & breadth of discussion. You and everyone in the Daily Briefing have helped tremendously in navigating a challenging year. Have a very Merry Christmas & a healthy + happy 2021
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 16:59
      Thanks, Peter. Merry Christmas to you as well.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    24 December 2020 @ 14:28
    Great stuff...enjoy the break! P.S. Is that a RV coffee mug over Ed's right shoulder on the mantle!?!
  • JW
    J W.
    24 December 2020 @ 07:34
    Merry xmas Ed and Ash. The RVDB has kept me on the straight and narrow throughout 2020 so thanks to you both, the extended team and all your guests.
  • LS
    Lewis S.
    24 December 2020 @ 04:50
    There's the left and the right, but there's also the edge and the center.
  • CP
    Cosimo P.
    24 December 2020 @ 04:23
    Thanks Ash & Ed, Jack, Peter and Haley for keeping us informed through the turmoil this year. Much appreciated! Happy holidays. Ash if you haven't yet, do your buddy Ed a favor and watch his favourite movie 'Trading Places'. Or watch it again. I guarantee it will make you chuckle 😅 All the best everyone from Adelaide South Australia 🙏
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    24 December 2020 @ 03:01
    BINGO !!! There really is risk. (Can never be shut down.) Really? Governments have the power of the gun. The power of currency is something governments will NEVER give up. When it's over maybe Tulips will be ready for a makeover. CNBC will definitely need a new advertiser...... (Grayscale anyone)
    • SG
      Skyler G.
      24 December 2020 @ 03:52
      It can be shutdown by taking down the mining pools. No miners, no transactions. The mining pools are incredibly concentrated.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    24 December 2020 @ 03:39
    Hope I don't see you guys until the new year. Happy Holidays!
  • SG
    Skyler G.
    24 December 2020 @ 03:21
    To Eds comments at 37 minute mark I think shows people may be a bit uninformed on the current tax laws for crypto currency. The IRS is very clear that they view crypto currency as "property". Any transaction that takes place whether its being sold of $s or another crypto currency is a taxable transaction as of 2017. This includes hard forks, miner payouts from mining pools, staking rewards, and making transactions at store with your crypto when it gets converted into dollars to pay for goods and services. Review IRS Notice 2014–21 Also, the SEC is trying to argue that ripple is a security and therefore failed file with the SEC before its ICO would have huge implications for every other crypto except for...you guessed it BTC.
  • BB
    Boyd B.
    24 December 2020 @ 02:58
    ed's plant moved
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    23 December 2020 @ 16:41
    Merry Christmas one and all. Enjoy your well-earned rest, it’s been a rough year.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 02:56
      Thank you, Alastair. Merry Christmas to you, as well!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    24 December 2020 @ 02:11
    Ash.. I hope ytou bring people from Polkadot soon.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 02:55
      We’re working on it now, Nikola.
  • BH
    Bernard H.
    24 December 2020 @ 02:03
    Merry Christmas. Thanks for all you've done this year.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 02:55
      Thanks, Bernard. Appreciate you watching.
  • BK
    Brigitte K.
    24 December 2020 @ 02:32
    RV Team- Thank you for making 2020 much more bearable. Best "discovery" of the year.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 December 2020 @ 02:54
      Thanks, Brigitte. Much appreciated.
  • VR
    Vladimir R.
    24 December 2020 @ 02:43
    Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, Ed & Ash. Btw, what's the big deal about XRP and the SEC? The SEC found that Block.one (EOS token) violated the registration provisions of the federal securities laws and required it to pay a $24 million civil monetary penalty. Block.one consented to the order without admitting or denying its findings. That's all that happened.
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    24 December 2020 @ 01:58
    Ed ‘You’ll see less of me’ Ash ‘great’
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    24 December 2020 @ 00:50
    Thanks Ash and Ed. Merry Christmas!
    • DS
      David S.
      24 December 2020 @ 01:42
      Looks like there is one Grinch in the house. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    24 December 2020 @ 01:39
    Tesla has greatly benefitted from government subsidies and tax advantages. The next important lobbying effort will be high tariffs on non-US manufactured electric cars. This would greatly reduce European luxury car competition. It will be more difficult, however, under the new administration. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    24 December 2020 @ 01:27
    Happy Holidays and a Great 2021! Another firehose of money flooding the stock market is the reduction in bond positions. No yield and potential for even small increases in rates are good incentive to sell bonds. Nothing new, but another reason the stock market may continue to rise. DLS
  • JL
    James L.
    24 December 2020 @ 00:48
    The Covid timeline could be greatly reduced if the NIH would allow one shot to all followed months instead of a month for the second shot.. Read John Hussman. Makes to much sense vs. FDA/CDC current plans.
  • CE
    Carl E.
    23 December 2020 @ 20:51
    My question is after President-elect Biden speech, should U.S. investors be concerned with the possibility of sanctions placed on Russian equities they hold?