Four Fiscal Cliffs Between Now and the Inauguration

Published on
December 2nd, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Four Fiscal Cliffs Between Now and the Inauguration

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Max Wiethe, and Ed Harrison

Published on: December 2nd, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week. Harrison also highlights the four fiscal cliffs between now and the inauguration that could potentially cause permanent economic damage and undermine the optimism surrounding the vaccine rotation trade. They also discuss the importance of perceived duration in how certain assets react to these surprises in real economic data. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the new ADP numbers, the latest data on the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., the U.K.'s emergency-use authorization of Pfizer and BioNTech SE's vaccine, and president-elect Biden's nominations for key economic positions in his administration.

Comments

Transcript

  • LC
    Louis C.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:00
    Best RVDB I’ve seen in a while!! Great job keeping the questioning relevant and insightful, thanks guys.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    3 December 2020 @ 06:07
    I have zero doubt that Ed is right. I had my annual dental exam on Monday and I was the only patient in the office. It was surreal. Pre-covid, there would be many patients in the various exam rooms and even more in the waiting room. My State is mostly open with few restrictions so this is all consumer fear driven. I suspect the disconnect is where the equity market views a dead economy as a good thing because it will force an even more elephantine amount of stimulus (which would better named sedative as the debt strangles all life out of the economy).
    • JS
      Jon S.
      3 December 2020 @ 23:43
      I was just killing time in my state as I was waiting for a tire shop to install new tires. It was lunch time so I walked into a fast food place with my mask on. Boy, was I surprised to be addressed that I wasn't allowed to be in the restaurant. I need to call in an order or use the drive thru. It was a respectful exchange. I just don't eat at these places to know the new rules. My three teenagers laughed at me and told me to walk through the drive thru!
  • JJ
    John J.
    3 December 2020 @ 21:22
    As usual, Max did a GREAT job. He is such a great interviewer/moderator. He asks probing questions that challenge the speaker. Ash hits the softest softballs and only compliments the speaker about how well he spoke or how insightful he was. It is like night and day. More Max. Ash needs to get his act together.
  • DS
    David S.
    3 December 2020 @ 07:19
    The US and other countries economic survival of this pandemic - where so many people cannot work to provide for their families - is completely different from even a deep business cycle recession. In some respects the problems of a pandemic are more like the Irish Potato Famine. An Irish farmer did all the farming necessary to put in and care for the potato crop to feed his family. You can discuss why it happened. You can give the Irish farmers the solution after the fact. Nothing except personal savings and the assistance of the church and state could allow the Irish people to survive the famine. Creating massive CB reserves in commercial banks with no one to lend to will not help the farmer or the merchant in the village. Giving money to the aristocracy will help a little as they fix up their mansions and buy stocks in America. Unfortunately, this does not help the overwhelming majority of the Irish people. In a pandemic the economy will survive when people survive. We will rebuild a growing economy. The all clear is on the horizon. We are most fortunate that men and women of science have developed vaccines at warp-speed. We need to help the families and important businesses in the most need to survive for six more months. We can do a better job the second time. We know more about what works! It is the right thing to do. It is also the necessary thing to do to rebuild an economy at warp speed together. DLS
  • CW
    Chase W.
    3 December 2020 @ 07:12
    Another good one from Ed. Really enjoy watching these daily. I do a daily coronavirus wrapup as a journalist for work and think the picture in the U.S. will actually be worse than Ed predicts. And, we're reaching certain metrics quicker than expected.
  • WT
    William T.
    3 December 2020 @ 02:11
    Does anybody remember the game, Twister? That's how my mind feels when I listen to the professionals talk about these markets. Everybody is all over the place that there is more confusion now more than ever, no clarity. Get me outta here! ....and just for fun, let's throw this thing called Bitcoin into the mix. Enjoy.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 December 2020 @ 04:39
      The information is not definitive. We have to make best guesses. DLS
    • FS
      Fernando S.
      3 December 2020 @ 05:00
      I heard one time you don't study all this stuff to find someone who is 'right' and follow them, you study it to see what other people's view points are in order to inform your own.
  • RS
    Robert S.
    2 December 2020 @ 23:48
    What are your views about the legislation coming out of the House about making Chinese follow certain audit protocols to be listed in American exchanges? What are the short and long term implications? My personal view is this a short term situation and MNC Chinese companies can list in Singapore or HK to get American funds. Could it be a buying opportunity to get emerging market exposure at a discount? Thanks. Robrert
    • DT
      David T.
      3 December 2020 @ 00:29
      Chinese companies are full of fraud on the US or HK echanges.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 December 2020 @ 04:41
      It is really the wild west with many China stocks. We were there at one time too. Keep the exposure to a reasonable level. dLS