Is A Double-Dip Recession On The Horizon?

Published on
November 19th, 2020
39 minutes

Is A Double-Dip Recession On The Horizon?

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Jack Farley, and Ed Harrison

Published on: November 19th, 2020 • Duration: 39 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the economic impact of the partial lockdowns U.S. officials are implementing day-by-day as cases and deaths from COVID-19 spiral out of control. Ed evaluates the latest rise in joblessness claims, the exponential increase in hospitalizations, the looming expiration of the CARES Act, and the Fed’s emergency lending programs, ultimately concluding that a double-dip recession in the U.S. could be on the horizon. Lastly, Jack and Ed discuss China’s first negative-yielding bond (denominated in Euros) as well as Bitcoin’s continued surge. In the intro, Haley Draznin looks at the increase in U.S. jobless claims filed this week and its broader implications on the markets.



  • JD
    John D.
    26 November 2020 @ 08:46
    Why would European bankers buy a zero interest bond from China in EUR? When they could buy a zero interest bond from another country, without the counter party risk of the CCP? Last time I checked, you can buy treasuries with positive yield. Is this corporate money washing or a "green" bride through a legal channel?
  • JD
    John D.
    26 November 2020 @ 08:41
    What if the CCP does not repay the 4 billion EUR bond? Is Europe going to do anything about it? No.
  • JD
    John D.
    26 November 2020 @ 00:15
    Hungry and Poland will continue to be long term winners economically. Clearly the EU model is not a one size fits all model empirically. There is increasingly calls for a reform into an economic union (where trade, law) are normalised without social policy.
  • VT
    Vincent T.
    21 November 2020 @ 14:48
    The point about Chinese ADS becoming worthless given US-China strife, I'd say it's doubtful considering all the US pension funds holding them
    • JD
      John D.
      25 November 2020 @ 23:59
      If it happened, there would be a grace period where the Chinese businesses had an opportunity to comply with SEC transparency requires, only later being de-listed. This would give markets time to trade in/out of positions per a company by company basis. The regulation is a good thing. There is no reason why legitimate companies like BABA should keep shareholders in the dark.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    21 November 2020 @ 00:21
    great job. Hollywood Jack
  • KN
    Krypton N.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:49
    SUGGESTION: The software isn't great when it gets to the end if you want to skip back. It goes on to the next vid, but then going back just gets hard work. Try it.
  • KN
    Krypton N.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:40
    Loved it - I may have to watch these every day. They are very moreish (is that a word)
  • JL
    Jason L.
    20 November 2020 @ 14:55
    Haley has really found her voice. Great to see. The RVDB keeps getting better, thanks RV team!
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    20 November 2020 @ 07:50
    Jack is great edition to this series. Adds intelligent and objective discuission where Ash is lacking
    • PU
      Peter U.
      20 November 2020 @ 10:45
      Jack is coming along at a very rapid pace. He is making an impression.
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    20 November 2020 @ 08:55
    Jack on RVDB!!! More Crypto for Ash✅
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    20 November 2020 @ 07:34
    RV is not the only game in town on crypto keep dreaming. You're just one player cashing in on it's hype.
  • JK
    Jonathan K.
    20 November 2020 @ 05:50
    Completely unrelated to the video, but does anyone know how to access all of the saved videos from the "My Videos" button.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    20 November 2020 @ 04:39
    Really good info and thoughts, thanks Jack and Ed
  • SS
    Steven S.
    20 November 2020 @ 04:20
    Haley did a great job! I would get a lot out of Haley doing her own weekly mini-show detailing the unemployment situation in the US. Going forward, this is going to be an increasing issue in terms of the economy and I think such a focus would be very helpful.
  • VD
    Violeta D.
    20 November 2020 @ 03:31
    Just a heads up.... The 'published' date on the Daily briefings shows a day before the actual briefing.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    20 November 2020 @ 03:30
    We don’t own enough Bitcoin...
  • HJ
    Harang J.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:10
    Jack, your summary of the interview with Hugh Hendry was brilliant. Now I get it.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      20 November 2020 @ 03:30
  • CW
    Christopher W.
    20 November 2020 @ 03:25
    I felt like there was a minor but consistent lag in both Jack and Ed's connection. Couldn't tell if it was just the camera quality or connection. Anyway, I always enjoy your convos.
  • PF
    Paul F.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:54
    What if the lights go out? Rolling black out or worse.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:53
    Thanks Jack and Ed. Good commentary - that China bond issuance is interesting. I accidentally hit the 1.25x without knowing, and thought - what are Jack and Ed on? I know finance can be exciting, but not that good...
  • PR
    Philip R.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:48
    Really appreciate Ed's analysis of the positive side that the market is seeing after hearing the negative side. Very through and very interesting.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:45
    Great, Jack and Ed, as always. In the interview, everything Hugh says about L Frank Baum, William Jennings Bryan, cross of gold, yellow brick road, Dorothy's silver slippers was dead-on accurate. I also learned about the chemist who broke all the gold out of the ground from Hugh. Great snippet. Enjoy it.
  • DG
    David G.
    20 November 2020 @ 02:15
    HI, where are these writings of Mr. Harrison I hear about from time to time? I've googled, I searched this site, and I can't find anything. I would love to read what Ed Harrison is writing.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      20 November 2020 @ 02:20
    • DG
      David G.
      20 November 2020 @ 02:20
      Nevermind, I found The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. I mistakenly Binged when I should have goggled.
    • DG
      David G.
      20 November 2020 @ 02:21
  • SD
    Sim D.
    20 November 2020 @ 01:28
    Lol at the basketball joke
  • SH
    Samuel H.
    20 November 2020 @ 01:04
    Jack getting better with every interview! Keep up the good work
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    20 November 2020 @ 00:59
    Who gives any of this, and these guys a thumbs down. WAKE UP! THANKS REALVISION - All content is so good........
  • OT
    Omar T.
    19 November 2020 @ 23:43
    so if there is no more fiscal and everything is on Fed, do we go negative on interest rates?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      19 November 2020 @ 23:57
      I don’t see the Fed going negative soon. More likely the Bank of England does first
    • MC
      Michael C.
      20 November 2020 @ 00:20
      I am not up on ECB and BOJ rates but I assume they're negative. Beggar thy neighbor.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    20 November 2020 @ 00:11
    exactly the only game in town excellent Hollywood LOL