“Is Everything a Bubble?” Wrap-Up – Highlights and Takeaways for Today’s Markets (LIVE)

Published on
February 19th, 2021
Duration
52 minutes

Junk Yields Rising, Bitcoin Sniffing Out Yield Curve Control, and GameStop’s Hearings


“Is Everything a Bubble?” Wrap-Up – Highlights and Takeaways for Today’s Markets (LIVE)

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Max Wiethe, Ed Harrison, and Raoul Pal

Published on: February 19th, 2021 • Duration: 52 minutes

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal live at 3:30 PM ET. Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision’s campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?” and explore how these various interviews all connect to what’s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself.

Comments

Transcript

  • EV
    Eugene V.
    25 February 2021 @ 07:43
    Looking forward to the Eurozone discussion with Lyn
  • FL
    Fredrik L.
    22 February 2021 @ 09:30
    Where is the speed up speech control? 1.25x 1.5x 1.75x 2x
    • ND
      Nik D.
      24 February 2021 @ 17:05
      Bottom right, next to the "CC".
  • DH
    Douglas H.
    20 February 2021 @ 19:11
    What do you mean Raoul when you say you get yield in crypto?
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      20 February 2021 @ 20:59
      Now there's a rabbit hole.
    • MP
      Mimi P.
      20 February 2021 @ 21:09
      there are institutions such as BlockFi, Celcius, Gemini, etc. that provides a yield on crypto assets kept on the platform. Those assets are used by those institutions to lend out and in return providing you a yield; similar to your fiat in a bank.
    • RM
      Ramon M.
      20 February 2021 @ 21:49
      There are 2 ways to earn yield on Crypto: lending and staking. They are not the same thing but they both yield passive income
    • JD
      John D.
      20 February 2021 @ 22:21
      Blockfi.com or DeFi
    • CP
      Chamil P.
      21 February 2021 @ 23:49
      Checkout https://invictuscapital.com/en/margin-lending if you are outside the US apart from the others mentioned above.
    • ND
      Nik D.
      24 February 2021 @ 15:53
      Here is a video on it: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/celsius-network-regulations-yield-on-crypto-assets
  • MC
    Mike C.
    20 February 2021 @ 03:01
    The great thing about the "Hive" model is that it's an amazing dopamine machine. The hive creates noise that triggers us all in different ways. We all love it and keep coming back for more because being triggered makes us feel alive. We love how its wrapped up and tied in a little bow with inculsive words like "community" and "together". It's an addictive drug. But like all drugs be careful we don't go mad. We users are ultimately accountable for our own addiction despite being hooked by the dealers charms. Trigger me with confirmation bias or trigger me with Semmelweis reflex.... it doesn't matter, its all sport that pays the dealer. Who cares if I don't already have a successful investment framework to filter the signal from the noise. I love the noise! We all love the noise! The noise distracts us from the silence and emptiness of the void that is our true nature. What genius is the advertising man hiding behind the scenes.
    • CB
      Carl B.
      24 February 2021 @ 14:38
      I like these thoughts. And just learnt what the Semmelweis reflex is.
  • LB
    Leslie B.
    20 February 2021 @ 06:29
    What?? Nobody commenting on Ed big FART at 20:30. That was hilarious!
    • JS
      John S.
      20 February 2021 @ 08:13
      I think just the chair moved. He might have a leader cover behind. I do not think it was a fart. Most likely none would have heard any farts.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 09:55
      John S, that’s it. I have a leather knee chair.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      20 February 2021 @ 12:08
      Indeed Ed, whatever it takes ☺
    • CB
      Carl B.
      24 February 2021 @ 14:34
      How are these the top two comments!
  • mw
    michael w.
    23 February 2021 @ 08:40
    It is already very frothy. Just look at Twitter and the average person talking about it all the time. There are also kids who were ruined. Look what happened in 2017-2018.
  • BH
    Brett H.
    20 February 2021 @ 22:08
    Is anyone else concerned that with Bitcoin now being leased out by Blackrock and having options trading on the CME, that the Central Planners will start controlling the price like they do with precious metals?
    • ns
      nikolay s.
      21 February 2021 @ 05:12
      nothing wrong with options, they are sold by miners. The hard cap of bitcoin will make any leverage difficult and risky
    • DL
      Dan L.
      22 February 2021 @ 18:55
      The papering-over of bitcoin by financial institutions (as happened to gold) is well on its way, and that will lead to significant control of flow and probably price to some extent as well. The hedge, I think, is Cardano (ADA) because it is the crypto that is most likely to actually dethrone those financial institutions with open source software and remove them from the equation. (Best to do your own homework on that and see whether you agree, but it won’t be Ethereum.)
  • DL
    Dan L.
    20 February 2021 @ 21:22
    What put options should I buy to hedge myself?
    • RM
      Ramon M.
      20 February 2021 @ 21:48
      What's your exposure? Invest in Diego Parrilla's fund and he does for you - he's an option's trading expert... or you can go long the UVIX ETF, trading at historical low
    • MT
      Mike T.
      21 February 2021 @ 11:34
      @ Ramon M. UVIX? hmmm, I don't think so, certainly not in the current market environment! Why because VIX futures are currently in Contango i.e. back month more expensive than front month. UVIX and VXX for that matter work best when VIX futures are in backwardation but VIX futures in backwardation is relatively rare. When as of now VIX futures are in Contango then the of ETF choice is SVXY. For those that do want a long term long volatility position either as a trade or portfolio hedge, please be aware whilst the principle of what to do sounds so simple, implementing in practice is difficult in the extreme. The above ETF's are heaviliy weighted with front month VIX futures. Anyone tempted to use an ETF's to try a long volatility trade please note the following. With VXX and UVXY due to the monthly rolling out in time process of the underlying VIX futures, VXX and UVXY as said previously work best when /VX futures are in backwardation i.e. the folks that run these etf's have to replace expiring expensive front month futures, with cheaper (in backwardation prices are lower) back month contracts which is good for the performance of UVXY/VXX however backwardation of futures contracts doesn't happen very often. When /VX's are in Contango (which historically is most of the time) the rolling process of replacing cheaper front month with more expensive back month leads to a significant drag on the performance of VXX and UVXY put simply you can tie up of lot of money creating a theoretical hedge holding such positions and yet rarely will the position perform well over the long term, the risk v potential reward are not in favour of long term VXX and UVXY positions. That being said if you must do it with an ETF then SVXY works best when VIX futures are in Contango which is most of the time. Last point, trying a long vol trade with the above ETF's is a very short term strategy, typically 2-3 days 5 at the most, then if you get the desired uplift in volatility close out quickly and move on. Why do I say this? Because Volatility spikes in Clusters for short periods of time, statistically lasting 5-7 days then starts to revert to the mean and contracts again. In the last 10 years the VIX has only got above 50 in 5 short periods of time aka 'cluster's and then contracts, which is not ideal for those that want a permanent long volatility position in their portfolio using Vol ETF's, it's not an attractive method of deploying capital.
    • DL
      Dan L.
      22 February 2021 @ 06:38
      What about buying OOTM Put Options on something like TQQQ for pennies into the teeth of these rates rising? ... eyething that $60-70 strike range and those puts are like 3 cents to 10 cents with 5 days to expiry; my thought is just to keep buying those for protection with the thought those high tech growth companies have the furthest to fall in a sharp pullback.
  • DC
    Dominic C.
    20 February 2021 @ 00:56
    Raoul is a great mind
    • MW
      Mariusz W.
      22 February 2021 @ 00:53
      Agree. And more so the speaker/storyteller.
  • MW
    Mariusz W.
    22 February 2021 @ 00:13
    Simple is beautiful, so if we play in narratives, the simpler (easier to digest) one is - the more salient it gets. I can't say that of Ed's. :( That spoils this wrapper.
  • CK
    C K.
    20 February 2021 @ 09:42
    Raoul, why are you not concerned about a possible 80% correction in bitcoin, which you frequently mention as a possibility, but are so worried about a 30% correction in equities. I think that for an 80% correction in bitcoin and 30% correction in equities, we're most probably looking at a liquidity event. You justify your lack of concern of the bitcoin correction by referencing the speed of action that the fed will take in the event of a liquidation, but that same reaction will also prop up the equity market, won't it? And the latter really has a wall of institutional money behind it while data has shown that of the recent $600bn market cap increase in bitcoin, only $11bn was institutional and these guys aren't hodlers. If bitcoin drops 80% they're out and they won't be able to justify to their trustees / shareholders why they should get in again. I can't thank RV enough for helping me understand bitcoin, I used to think that it was just for criminals so I missed the first 7-8 years of it and watched in disbelief as it rose to $20k. The retail mania at the time was unbelievable while the institutions (ex the first macro converts) were all bashing it. It was almost predictable to the day, that when CME started trading futures it would come crashing down because most institutions wanted to short it. By March 2020 I had learnt enough about it that I was considering buying some and when the liquidation happened I grabbed that opportunity. But at the time, there was no mention of bitcoin anywhere. It wasn't on anyone's radar, I don't even think RV was talking about it. Fast forward 12 months and we're back to the mania, fintwit is all about bitcoin, shitcoins, laser eyes, have fun staying poor, and Lindsay Lohan pumping all day. This hodl at all cost campaign on twitter is exactly what we witnessed with GME, and we all know how that ended for most people. Even Lyn, whom I respect enormously, said that while she predicted bitcoin going to a trillion market cap, she was surprised by the speed at which it reached it. As you discussed on this RVDB about yields in the US, it's not necessarily the level that is either dangerous or that denotes a bubble, but the speed with which we get there. I'm never comfortable with a parabolic chart and if you look at the bitcoin chart it bears similarities with the GMI crash pattern, although it still hasn't dropped and failed to make new highs so there could still be some way to go. While all these may be signs of a bubble, you can never know how far it can go, so I've rebalanced to take significant profits, but I've left enough to run in case it does go to a gazillion. And if it drops 80% I might get back in. I'm sure you're in bitcoin because it's the best trade out there right now, and that you'll get out on time to divert your profits to the next big thing. But a lot of people might get hurt. To paraphrase Warren Buffet, when the tide goes out you discover who's been left with nothing but laser eyes.
    • HK
      Henrik K.
      20 February 2021 @ 12:07
      I fully agree with this and I also took my cost base out during the last couple of weeks so my not insignificant crypto exposure is a free ride and all upside from here… Apart from my concern that Tether poses a systemic risk to the whole crypto ecosystem that is being wilfully ignored/dismissed by most of the crypto commentators; I think the threat of regulation is starting to become very real as crypto and in particular BTC grows in size. I just can’t imagine that Western Governments and Central Banks will allow an independent decentralised and largely unregulated set of currencies to replace or even run parallel to their own regulated and controlled monetary system which is essential for them to control and steer economic activity and to collect taxes (i.e. the existing monetary system is completely fundamental to organised western world democratic societies). If cryptos become increasingly established including as a means of payment (e.g. Tesla accepting BTC) and companies paying wages in BTC etc. I would be concerned that it blows a giant hole in the current taxation system e.g. I can pay my builder in BTC from a private wallet, avoiding VAT and he can use this to pay for goods and services without declaring it to the inland revenue/IRS all of which is very difficult to track. Crypto enables an explosion in untaxed, grey market activities that I just don’t think will be allowed. I know that many crypto advocates think that there is nothing that governments can do to shut this down but I would suggest that at least the following would be possible: 1. Make all cryptos illegal tender i.e. no shops or business are allowed to accept cryptos as payment for any goods and services; 2. Ban all crypto transfers between regulated and unregulated exchanges effectively killing the on/off ramp into fiat; 3. Full KYC / AML on all transfers between regulated exchanges and private wallets; and 4. Potentially banning all transfers between private wallets i.e. all transfers must go via regulated exchanges. Point 4 is probably quite hard to enforce but making it illegal would reduce incentive to do it dramatically and 1-3 seem pretty easy to do. I am not saying I support any of this but I would like to hear some good rational arguments as to why Western Governments would not take these actions likely in the next 1-3 years if the crypto space keeps growing at current rates?
    • jn
      jordan n.
      20 February 2021 @ 15:20
      Looks like we have some paper hands in the audience! Raising the same issues heard before and yet we still risked capital. Only teasing...All fair points but I believe the institutional adoption will drive the climb to the next level. Further, I don’t know anyone who feels they’ve bought enough and not salivating at the opportunity to reload. I have managed the impulse to monetize by buying btc/eth puts on Deribit...clearly has been a waste of $ so far. 💎🙌
    • CK
      C K.
      20 February 2021 @ 16:29
      Jordan, I hope you're right cause I still own some and want it to go a lot higher. I love bitcoin, but I think rebalancing / profit taking should depend on circumstances rather than dogma. I lost my job with covid but made 9x on bitcoin so I've sold enough to support my family for a couple of years regardless of what happens. At some point you need to choose between paper gains and paper hands... if it corrects significantly I'll get back in, but at least I won't feel the pain on the way down. Anyway, bitcoin to the moon!
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 February 2021 @ 17:26
      Anyone who thinks Tether is a risk doesn't understand the multitude of dollar-pegged coins that exist. Worst case, momentary deflection as any value in the Tether network is frozen - then the exchanges switch over to whatever has the next tier of volume. And since most list multiple "stable" coins, it doesn't really matter. The only time these concern-trolls come out of the woodwork is when Bitcoin is making new highs. Here's a pro-tip -- any seasoned crypto trader knows precisely what happens next, and we're fine with it. Parabolic rise may seem out of character for an asset, except when you consider Bitcoin is ascending the S-Curve of tech adoption. Its also the same phase where banks like JP Morgan try to talk down the advances, because they were too late to exploit lower prices, so they hope they can get a few muppets to sell early so they can establish a better cost basis. You'll also notice the usual useful idiots promoting the same tropes that have been debunked for years "Bitcoin uses too much energy", "Bitcoin could go to zero", "Bitcoin can't succeed, the govt won't let it" and other garbage. Its gotten so bad lately that even Nassim Taleb, a normally rational person with bond trading experience is now disavowing Bitcoin, because he can't wrap his head around how the price moves. Sad, never thought I'd see his own phrase "Intellectual, but idiot" applied back to him, but my god, he really is losing it. You're going to see a lot of crazy behavior up here, but it doesn't matter -- even if it retraces 80%, because we've done this several times before with all the idiots on the internet telling us how its impossible for Bitcoin to do what its doing, and yet it does it anyway. Bitcoin manages to persist, even after being called "dead" over 370+ times. Get over it.
    • CP
      Chamil P.
      21 February 2021 @ 23:55
      Perhaps Raoul has a trailing stop on some of his crypto. Don't forget that crypto is a 24/7 market. I believe he also mentioned that he was comfortable in losing 60% or so in his video with Hugh Hendry.
  • BG
    Brent G.
    20 February 2021 @ 02:28
    all the sudden everyone is inflationistas....id like to hear lacey hunts view...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 03:34
      I think neither Raoul nor I would call ourselves inflationistas. Inflation is a possibility over the short- to medium-term because of supply constraints, yes. But deflation is still the secular trend in my view. And that is due to debt, demographics and technology
    • GS
      Gerald S.
      20 February 2021 @ 15:06
      Ed, I think that fiscal will trump the other deflationary factors. 2020 started a new paradigm. We're not talking monetary policy alone anymore. Full-blown MMT is coming or maybe it's already here; we're just calling it "stimulus".
    • BG
      Brent G.
      20 February 2021 @ 19:04
      The only inflation I have seen for my person is food and asset prices. Rural real estate in particular has sky rocketed in my area. Mainly real estate with acreages. I have not seen excessive premiums on tillable oddly. Any chance to get some real estate coverage residential/rural/commercial/tillable ?
    • OD
      Onur D.
      21 February 2021 @ 22:31
      We currently have an asset price inflation. Once the economy opens back up and people go on a spending spree the money velocity increases which in combination with the excess of money printed will lead to a short term inflation until rates have to be raised. Just my humble opinion tho :D. Let´s see. #buybitcoin
  • MM
    Michael M.
    21 February 2021 @ 21:18
    =)
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    21 February 2021 @ 19:08
    You guys are great. Thanks!
  • DK
    Danny K.
    21 February 2021 @ 12:07
    Thanks for the word on the UK. Noted and very much appreciated.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    21 February 2021 @ 11:24
    Excellent... something I really appreciated is that they waited until the very end to even mention the word "vaccine". I dont think "covid" or "virus" was even mentioned. The recovery has begun.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    20 February 2021 @ 10:52
    What happened to the interview with Lacy Hunt?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 17:25
      Multiple interviews with contributors based in Texas had to be cancelled because of rolling blackouts and heat shortages.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      20 February 2021 @ 18:24
      Interestingly enough there were customers in Texas exposed to the wholesale electricity market, which under normal circumstances would be a net savings - but during volatile events like the cold snap, suddenly are on the hook for rates vastly higher than normal. Its a good study in tail risk and how consumers don't understand how markets work.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    20 February 2021 @ 06:11
    Is it wise to own 30 a year Bond when we are moving to a new economy like cryptos, Is it better to own shorter terms Bonds like 1 year. I don't know much about the Bond market but I can watch the new economy building parallel to the old and at some point we will switch over completly.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      20 February 2021 @ 17:50
      Sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same
  • GD
    Greg D.
    20 February 2021 @ 02:27
    I thought that Lacy Hunt was going to be on this week.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      20 February 2021 @ 05:10
      Yeah, that was a big disappointment. He's based out of Austin, TX so I'm thinking that maybe there was an issue related to the weather; possible power outage. Hopefully he will be on soon!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 17:23
      Weather forced us to cancel. We are working on rescheduling for March.
  • JB
    John B.
    20 February 2021 @ 00:42
    At 30:38 Ed lifts a cheek and crop dusts the room. Awesome episode today but had to chuckle at the fart.
    • BG
      Brent G.
      20 February 2021 @ 02:25
      confirmed
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 03:20
      No. Didn't happen. Now, I have to look at the clip and see where it seems like it did though.
    • AM
      Arthur M.
      20 February 2021 @ 05:03
      Forwarded to Howard Stern.
    • LB
      Leslie B.
      20 February 2021 @ 06:33
      Yeah. That was so funny. And then Ed trying to deny it. I think we are going to need Raoul's opinion on this as well.
    • TH
      Trevor H.
      20 February 2021 @ 07:09
      Definite air biscuit !
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      20 February 2021 @ 11:12
      Now I've seen it. Yeah, it definitely SOUNDS and LOOKS like it. But, it's just a leather chair. Hilarious
    • RM
      Richard M.
      20 February 2021 @ 15:18
      Nice recovery Ed (on the 2nd comment)!!! :-)
    • BG
      Brent G.
      20 February 2021 @ 16:44
      We're gonna need to see evidence of leather knee chair next briefing :)
  • SG
    Skyler G.
    20 February 2021 @ 15:47
    Moral Hazard 101: "Any dislocation in the market will be met with rapid policy response." In my view, because market participants are all conditioned on policy response to any downside event, It sounds a lot like a risk is developing that policy makers hands might be tied at some point or simply that their responses will not work.
  • RD
    Richard D.
    20 February 2021 @ 07:36
    Does anyone have a comment on VXX as a hedge?
    • jn
      jordan n.
      20 February 2021 @ 15:24
      Vxx decays due to the contango (most of the time) of the underlying vix futures curve. So it’s not an instrument that can be held for an extended period of time. Perhaps long USD provides some protection
  • BC
    Bill C.
    20 February 2021 @ 04:08
    Do Democrats want to be seen as bailing out those that they've so demonized for a couple of decades? Maybe going forward there is less "Fed put" and maybe more direct checks to means tested recipients. If a real Hussman scenario washout occurred the Zulauf long term increasing-government-infringement-doom-loop scenario is greatly reduced. Would Democrats allow it to happen?
    • WG
      Wade G.
      20 February 2021 @ 14:24
      Dems quietly support/protect the carried interest loophole, and my bet is they reverse the recent curbing of SALT deductions; the Obama admin had 8 years to do anything about prosecuting fraud from the GFC and did nothing but enable continued looting. These are incomplete arguments but the point is u seem to think or at least imply the Dems are something they are not. Having said that, and allowing for differing views on those points, if u look at the last section of the just released House version of the $1.9T Covid bill, on Pensions, you will see a stunning 30 year bailout of multi-employer pensions, including those already designated critical, and critical and declining. All without an ounce of reform; zero haircuts; zero accountability, just an limitless backstop of $. I point this out because in the past, I've assumed Dems were all in on supporting asset bubbles because they know the pension system is gravely underfunded and there will no faking it in a market crash scenario now with bond rates near the floor. If the House version (on pensions) passes, they will have moated an important constituency from market turmoil with this legislation. Maybe it reduces their commitment to the bubbles on the margin a bit. Who knows. The truth as I see it is that no politician, from any party, has much of an appetite for correcting the imbalances that are well out of hand. E.g., I believe both major party platforms include a plank to reinstate Glass-Steigall. Yet it never happens and its not even discussed. I assume they'll run this ponzi until it blows.
  • DS
    Darrell S.
    20 February 2021 @ 03:23
    Hey. May i know what are those 2 books behind Raoul within his camera? One is 'Global Macro Edge' while the other is ???? Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 February 2021 @ 12:48
      Soros - The Crisis of Global Capitalism.
  • MO
    Marcus O.
    20 February 2021 @ 01:45
    What is the best way to buy options on treasuries? Would it be options on an ETF? TLT?
    • jn
      jordan n.
      20 February 2021 @ 12:38
      Yes on TLT. Can also buy on futures (zb) but only short term, the long term expirations are illiquid...for retail anyway. Can also buy options on Eurobonds (GE)
  • HK
    Henrik K.
    20 February 2021 @ 12:30
    Thanks for an enjoyable RVDB, always a great way to start the weekend! On the subject of the yield curves and the TGA, I am struggling with a few questions that I am hoping RV may be able to shed some light on in the coming weeks. 1. The increasing view that Yellen / US Treasury will “spend” a very large amount of the TGA in the coming weeks/months driving down the front end of the curve and possible even requiring an increase in interest paid on bank reserves to avoid short term yields going negative. I have a few questions as to WHY Yellen / US Treasury would use the TGA for buying back / retiring short term treasuries? a. Don’t they need the TGA funds to fund the material deficit and to part fund increased stimulus spend? What is the point in buying back Treasuries if they then need to go out and borrow new funds / issue new Treasuries during the year in order to fund their deficit spending? It seems a bit pointless? Or is the idea that they are just trying to earn a very small yield on their cash while waiting to spend it? In other words, they will have to sell it all back to the market during the year anyway? b. IF they were going to use excess cash to retire existing debt/Treasuries wouldn’t they be better off buying back their most expensive debt i.e. the longer duration Treasuries which in fact would have the opposite effect to the ones described by most commentators i.e. it would then drive down the yields at the longer end of the curve rather than the short end? What has Yellen said about what they will buy and are we sure they will only purchase at the short end? c. People like Kevin Muir and Mark Cabana from BofA say that this torrent of liquidity from the TGA will increase Bank Reserves. Can anyone explain why this is? If they are buying treasuries in the market do commentators assume this will all be from banks that will then deposit the cash received with the Federal Reserve (which to my understanding would be the mechanism that increases reserves)? Isn’t it just as likely that the treasuries will be purchase from a range of institutions who may use the cash to reinvest in more treasuries while most likely being pushed out on the longer end of the curve thereby ultimately driving yields down along the whole curve? Maybe this whole exercise is yield curve control in disguise and carried out by the Treasury instead of the Fed? 2. Yield Curve Steepening. A few market commentators have noted that most of the maturing Government debt is at the short end of the curve and so it is actually possible for the Fed to keep short term rates very low reducing the refinancing risk of rising interest rates while letting yields rise at the long end of the curve which could steepen the curve dramatically and actually introduce some meaningful duration yield which is probably healthy overall for the market and may be a way to more subtlety deflate some of the market excesses? On the other hand, Howard Marks suggests that the Fed should be borrowing more long duration and lock in all time low interest rates for 30/50/100 years which seems equally logical. What do the RV experts think of these opposing concepts?
  • DJ
    Damien J.
    20 February 2021 @ 10:48
    #EdFart
  • NC
    NATHAN C.
    20 February 2021 @ 03:38
    Could RV do a show where someone explains why anyone would BUY a zero percent bond?
    • CK
      C K.
      20 February 2021 @ 08:54
      Instead of coupons, they sell at a discount. So if the bond's face value is 100, you buy it at 80 and at maturity get 100 back.
  • RC
    Rob C.
    20 February 2021 @ 03:51
    How about MSTR puts as a hedge against BTC correcting, MSTR BTC track almost exactly. MSTR Puts are cheap.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    20 February 2021 @ 03:28
    Great summary, Raoul. The reason I happily subscribe to RV!
  • DR
    Dharma R.
    20 February 2021 @ 02:58
    Boring.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    20 February 2021 @ 01:13
    Great coverage guys. But seriously .... you need to haul John Williams of ShadowStats back... After that, get Sheila Weinberg or Bill Bergman, from Truth in Accounting. Only they can fully, and credibly, explain what is going on .... and why.
    • JK
      John K.
      20 February 2021 @ 01:38
      great idea
    • MV
      Matt V.
      20 February 2021 @ 01:44
      Sorry, can't agree on Shadowstats. He's been calling for hyperinflation for 10+ years. Maybe he'll get a mini-dose in 2021, but he's been the alter-ego of Harry Dent during that time.