FERC made recommendations in 2011 -- 10 years ago. Texas was warned yet did not heed the warnings. So sad that people suffer due to lack of preparedness and operational foresight. https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

Martinez A., yes. and FERC had warned them again in the late 80's - same situation. Texas, unlike all the other states, does not have to follow FERC because they have cut themselves off from power grids in other states and therefore do not have to answer to interstate and federal regulations. And this catastrophe will happen again. Penny wise/pound foolish planning. This will cost lives and billions of dollars. I hope attorneys taking civil cases are sharpening their pencils, that may be the only way to get the attention of the Texas power elite.

25% of electricity is generated from wind. >92% of the turbines went off line because of icing. There is insufficient contingent backup.

I’m north of Dallas. Yes, it was rough for a few days. Some friends had it much worse with frozen pipes that burst and days of trying to keep warm. There are also countless stories of neighbors and even complete strangers stepping up to help each other. The temperatures were 20+ degrees BELOW the typical lows, so it is fair to say that this is/was an extreme weather event. Also keep in mind that Texas battled upwards of 30x the typical annual snow accumulation in just a 4 day span. That would knock power out in almost any state in the union. Our neighbors (California refugees) remarked that it took much, much less to lose power completely back in CA, though clearly the bitter cold added insult to injury. All said, I would stop short of begging for government regulation/intervention. I personally fled the Washington, DC area 5 years ago and immediately enjoyed lower electricity bills, greater freedom, and higher quality of life. The difference was incredible and the savings was massive. The government is more locally-empowered so if rapid changes are needed the local officials are usually responsive. To ask for unions, regulation, and heavy-handed government might just turn this state into everything that many of its residents willfully escaped from. Yes, there needs to be accountability, and yes, some heads will need to roll but we also need to be careful not to adopt the “never let a crisis go to waste” mentality. Crazy weather events happen and just about any extreme weather event is bound to happen given enough time - that doesn’t really make it “predictable” though, does it? Texas is great. I live here and I love it. Yes, this freak event sucked but we’ll move on.

Also, household debt was on the floor, and corp debt was low; only gov't debt was sky high. Situ today is a far cry from WWII era. No need to even discuss the cultural abyss.

Steven Bregman talks about this in his interview with Mike Green. "Crossing the ETF Divide". He also talked about this way back with Grant Williams.

Done!

Perhaps indirectly; low mortgage rates spures demand for housing, incentivizing builders to max out their ability to build at ever highr selling prices allowing builders to pay ever higher materials and labor prices....

Fair point lol. Were you an ex-fundamental analyst?

As an occasional contributor, I generally do not find it helpful when contributors reply aggressively or dismissively to criticism. Tony Greer used to do this but has stopped and, in a small way, I now respect him more. But in a small way, Tyler, I now respect you less.

@David A Criticism is a strong word here. Michael's comment did not address a single point Tyler made and only tried to discredit him for his CV. We have plenty of people on RV who don't fit the Ivy League to 2-year IB program to buyside track and many of them are fan favorites. Lyn Alden for instance worked as an engineer before starting her investment strategy business. Lilly Francus is another great example of someone who didn't go the traditional route. If you disagree with someone fine, take them to school on their thesis but by Michael's point of view anyone who isn't a central banker shouldn't be listened to about the Fed.

i watched it. i agree 60% sounds a bit shocking but remember it was qualified with "liquid". private business ownership, real estate, alternative non-liquid assets (watches, cars, art), do not factor into this number. honestly though hugh's chiding "Raooooouuuuullllllllllll..." was the funniest thing i've ever heard on RV.

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” - G. B. Shaw

I encourage everyone to listen to the 18 minute exchange. Take out the word Bitcoin and just listen. Raoul did a PERFECT job of describing a Ponzi scheme. His dogged obsession with Bitcoin is irrational. Borderline GameStop.

The number one rule of investing is to make money and not to lose money. There is simply nothing rational about this market, and Raoul's view is that in a world where everything is essentially an expression of the same trade ( liquidity and dollar weakness ), it makes sense to be in the asset that best reflects that trade. For him, that is Bitcoin. He doesn't expect to own it forever, he just doesn't see anything attractive in a risk/reward bet that can hold a candle to it right now. You don't have to agree with him, but you should look past his personal asset positioning and look around. What other trades are out there that are expressing a unique view, and aren't simply a derivative of the global macro effects of Fed stimulus and the dollar? The whole world is a series of derivative trades on flows, liquidity, and the dollar.

Do you have a link to that video? Thanks!

John A - spot on. It is the superior trade. Its as simple as that. Like it or not, its up 78% this year. I will take some off the table when I am ready to and not when anyone else thinks I should. Right or wrong. Ive been doing this for 30 years and this is the single best bet Ive ever seen.

Was this a video debate? Can you link? Thanks

If you are a macro trader it makes perfect sense. I see this as another trade with a very high asymmetric risk reward. The biggest difference is the network effect acceleration (Metcalfe's law) and the reflexivity loops that it is starting with the ok of institutions. Just like Soros with the pound and Stan with bonds/credit markets. Last year the Eurodollar, bonds, and High Yield were great set ups. Looking at BTC like is going to change the financial system is another story...

Raoul, just want to say I love you bro and I love RealVision. I’m worried about your risk level if the crap hits the fan. I think Hugh was right by recommending taking your cost out. But hey, I’ve had a 50% cash portfolio since mid Jan and working the other 50% like a rented mule. That probably makes me a wimp to risk. Cheers!

for those asking where to find it, finally located the link in raoul's twitter feed - https://www.pscp.tv/w/1gqGvoqvRPBJB

https://blockworks.co/newsletter/?source=tyler

If credit spreads widen I’ll change my tune too! But for now I think the inflation narrative holds major weight.

Ty is indeed on-the-ball-smart. But, some of us judged him by the backward ball-cap; so it was good that he explained the lack of water to shower to was hair. I hope others stayed through the end?

Strongly agree. Sometimes I wish I could hit the thumbs up symbol on the right more than once. Tyler calmly makes some excellent points in areas where he is clearly very passionate. I appreciate his comments.

I definitely wanted to dive in deeper on his crypto thought experiment statement and the calculation of an interest rate and to compare that to the FED manipulated interest rate..