Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World

Published on
October 23rd, 2020
Duration
41 minutes


Raoul Pal: The Biggest Trade in the World

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: October 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 41 minutes

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul's enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul's zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF.

Comments

Transcript

  • rs
    ross s.
    3 November 2020 @ 23:13
    Need more and more of Raoul speaking....
  • VS
    Vidak S.
    30 October 2020 @ 00:15
    thanks for your views. would you be able to bring someone who can give overview of the space e.g. industries, like platforms, store of value, social networks, privacy coins. would be good to hear expert view about most promising players in each category. I am mostly interested about file storage, computing power, payment networks etc. maybe santiago can do 30min expert view. thanks
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    29 October 2020 @ 02:53
    Y'all should snag Parker Lewis of Unchained Capital. His online essay series "Gradually, then Suddenly" is an incredible resource available for everyone.
  • rs
    ross s.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:57
    Please more of this! I love to hear Raoul speak.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:05
    I'm not sure the allusion to Goldman hiring scientists to produce Derivatives is a plus or minus?
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 23:28
      Either way, it's interesting. In my PhD classes (late 1990s) in stochastic point processes, stochastic partial differential equations and probability theory, we'd have recruiters from various investment banks standing outside the classrooms. So, I have little reason to believe this isn't true.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      25 October 2020 @ 00:23
      ...but the point Raoul was making is that there has been a flood of people with computer science and other quantitative backgrounds into the crypto space. That's good for the the development of crypto technologies.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      26 October 2020 @ 00:13
      Yeah I was mostly thinking did all that complexity eventually not end up in the GFC?
    • SS
      Steven S.
      28 October 2020 @ 05:58
      Got it. I would imagine that the answer is a resounding yes given how the MBS derivatives were constructed.
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    25 October 2020 @ 00:20
    For those interested in GBTC, here is a live tracker of the price premium of GBTC relative to the actual amount of BTC the trust holds: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav
    • SS
      Steven S.
      28 October 2020 @ 05:55
      This is great! Thanks for sharing, Charlie. I've been hand calculating the premium for a couple years now as I trade GBTC
  • MH
    Mei H.
    25 October 2020 @ 22:43
    I thought that Raoul was rather rude to Ash.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      28 October 2020 @ 05:54
      I think he was just trying to make a joke. I'm assuming you're referring to the introductory part.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    28 October 2020 @ 04:58
    Does Raoul have a big enough following, through his media network, to move the btc market? I find him so charismatic and likeable I sometimes think I’m not critical enough when thinking about his framework....
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:36
    Fantastic intro by Jack Farley. Good research! I like that style/content.
  • PE
    Paul E.
    27 October 2020 @ 16:07
    I appreciate learning the term, Fuckwit. Thanks! Question: What sites do you suggest buying Bitcoin on?
  • AG
    Ashish G.
    26 October 2020 @ 01:12
    I love silvergate the stock. Huge leverage to bitcoin.
    • pt
      popejumpingjohnpaul t.
      27 October 2020 @ 13:15
      tell me more....
  • HM
    Hugh M.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:55
    Bitwise has an index product about to be approved, will be on Schwab available to RIAs, to RP's point on RIAs
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    26 October 2020 @ 11:16
    There are two beliefs which don't appear compatible. (1) That crypto currency technology is moving ahead in leaps and bounds, and (2) Bitcoin, arguably with the oldest technology, will continue to be the leader. Perhaps both can work together, but as far as I know, it hasn't in any other industry. I wouldn't give you a dollar for a TRS-80 computer or a Nokia 3210 phone.
    • KS
      Krishna S.
      26 October 2020 @ 21:08
      I think people place a lot of value in the network effect and security track record of Bitcoin. Even though there are new coins that can be sent faster and claim to be safer, Bitcoin has a 10+ year longer track record of having never been hacked, and is also widespread across the globe.
  • AD
    Alexander D.
    26 October 2020 @ 20:25
    CLO ETF - Is there a way for the average investor who does not have a home office to short these sacks of shit?
  • MN
    Manuel N.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:49
    I totally agree with Raoul, that the fact that the real number of infections in Spain might be 3 million. I have just left Madrid to the countryside in Andalusia, where I don´t have to pay rent in a small town where only 90 case have been registered. A lot of people are doing the same in order to protect their money and their health.
  • TL
    Timothy L.
    24 October 2020 @ 13:58
    About the ETF's, isn't GBTC already available for investment adviser portfolios?
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 14:55
      Yes but it is not an ETF.
    • AM
      Alexander M.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:27
      Available to individuals in trading or Roth accounts.
    • TL
      Timothy L.
      26 October 2020 @ 19:18
      I know it's not an ETF, but why would investment advisers need to wait for an ETF when they can just recommend purchasing GBTC? Are there restrictions on what they can recommend that prohibit that, as I imagine there are for institutional investors purchasing it?
  • JL
    J L.
    26 October 2020 @ 02:22
    Here is a counterargument to your recession expectation and bullish bonds argument: Direct fiscal stimulus can buy growth. We aren't used to this paradigm, because monetary stimulus cannot buy growth. But fiscal is different, because it puts money directly into the pockets of consumers and businesses. Note, too, that Japan never did direct fiscal. Imagine if Japan had put money directly into consumer pockets, small business pockets, with direct fiscal stimulus, in mass amounts. Maybe they could have generated recovery a long time ago, at the cost of inflation. The trade-off is that direct fiscal stimulus can only buy growth at the cost of inflation. So attempts to buy growth with massive fiscal stimulus run into the inflation brick wall. Inflation is also the "brake" that MMTers talk about. Ah, but we don't have to worry so much about inflation now -- do we? -- because if the deflationary counterpressures from tech that Jeff Booth talks about, and the demographics stuff. This means that, just as balance sheet recession creates "fiscal space," deflationary macro pressures create fiscal space on the inflation side. That means they can go nuts with direct stimulus, and buy growth. Ah, but small businesses are wrecked you say. And they are. But guess who that favors? The publicly traded companies that benefit from small business armageddon. When thousands of restaurants go out of business, the profits for McDonalds and Chipotle go up. When thousands of mom and pop retailers go out of business, the profits for Target and Walmart and Amazon go up. Now what does this mean for bonds? It means there is actual room for bonds to fall in price, and yields to rise, at least to point. Here is why: -- Dems are likely to win it all (f you don't see this, you are fooling yourself, or else looking at bad data). -- Direct fiscal stimulus in large amounts can, actually, buy growth. This is "helicopter money." -- The normal brake on fiscally bought growth is inflation. That will be countered by deflationary effects. -- Armageddon among SMEs (small-medium biz) can actually improve the profit outlook for winner-take-all companies. We know fiscal can buy growth. It's money in people's pockets. We also know inflation is a wet noodle, for reasons you've articulated. And we know the stock market bids up winners, who are happy to eat the losers (SMEs). If Dems come again and spray trillions around, which they likely will, this is a recipe for more stock market gains in 2021, and surprisingly high yields on the long side, up until the point where higher yields cause something to break.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      26 October 2020 @ 12:20
      Worth the read, thanks. Couple thoughts. Liked Jeff Booth's book a lot so not dismissing effects, just wonder about levels and base rates. I'd argue he may be wrong on energy/solar front and that undermines his broad thesis somewhat. Setting that aside, all the effects he documents are in place and ongoing, and yes growing. But obviously so too are fiscal games. I believe the CPI is silly construct; they need hedonics, substitution and weighting to print something comforting already, well into the deflationary effects Booth argues. My point is inflation is the threat and its already a problem, even if the DOL pretends its not. The runway for fiscal stimulus may be shorter than u think because of this. Another way of saying this: the deflationary room u envision has already been discounted. I don't have a strong opinion, and u may be right. Finally, I don't have your strong conviction on election outcomes, particularly for the Senate, which is critical to fiscal deliberations.
  • HS
    Howard S.
    25 October 2020 @ 11:18
    I was convinced from 2013 but bought small. Opened a Coinbase account when they started. Bought and sold my btc holdings along way. Now ready to make a big plunge after some asset sales. Where is safest wallet? Is Coinbase ok for long haul. I’m an early boomer wanting to create some future security for my kids.
    • BC
      Benjamin C.
      25 October 2020 @ 13:56
      bitcoin twitter is a world class resource. Q&A bitcoin is my fav info source.
    • GH
      Garrett H.
      25 October 2020 @ 15:54
      As someone who has lost Bitcoin from an exchange I'd recommend you figure out how to self-custody if you are planning to store for a long time such as for your kids. It will take some learning, here is a good spot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zNVDIz6Snw&t=60s&ab_channel=aantonop Just have multiple backups, and a plan for inheritance. If you want more hand-holding you can look into this product: https://keys.casa/
    • MN
      MYLENE N.
      26 October 2020 @ 08:43
      Safest is off the crypto exchanges. Don't store your keys on your cell phone to laptop that is backed up on some cloud (google drive, iCloud etc). Just google ledger nano to get started. Even with that, someone fell for an email which asked them to click a link to update their ledger. Digital Asset News guy on youtube always talks about Celsius so maybe you can check that out too. On his latest youtube video dated 26 OCT he shows what percentage of his crypto is stored where. Maybe ask this question on RV The Exchange. Lots of knowledgeable people there will answer your question better than I just did :)
  • MN
    MYLENE N.
    26 October 2020 @ 08:24
    I can only afford to be subscribed to RV Essential at the moment and I'm very grateful that it includes CRYPTO!!!!!! Please don't make it a separate tier that I have to pay extra for. At least not for a year while I try to survive this sad economy. I wish I had more hours in a day to binge watch all the amazing interviews!! Yeah Netflix got cancelled a long time ago lol.
  • CS
    Clay S.
    26 October 2020 @ 01:02
    I appreciate this discussion. I own gold and BTC already. Acquired a lump sum and have been wavering between gold and BTC for this last purchase. Gold had a 24x from 1971 to 1980. I lived it, and can see it happening again. But you are correct, the electronic nature will attract all of the fund money to BTC. Only Central Banks will collect gold. Individuals, maybe 50/50.
  • BM
    Benjamin M.
    26 October 2020 @ 00:41
    Great conversation but one key question. Raoul keep saying that a) economy looks bad and deflation is coming and b) the dollar is going to get stronger before it gets weaker. How does this contribute to the bitcoin narrative as I would think both are not necessarily inherently good for tail winds.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    26 October 2020 @ 00:29
    Roaul is starting to sound like a less abrasive Peter Schiff of Bitcoin. Is he saying it's buy and hold or a trade?
    • RG
      Ryan G.
      26 October 2020 @ 00:41
      Buy and hold. He believes the upside possibility is that great that there is little point in trading it.
  • JB
    James B.
    25 October 2020 @ 20:32
    Another great interview.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    25 October 2020 @ 17:54
    Love listening to Raoul !! He makes it fun and understandable. Thanks Raoul !!
  • CC
    Charles C.
    25 October 2020 @ 17:27
    Great conversation. Please keep the crypto education coming. Fascinating.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    25 October 2020 @ 08:51
    I think message is buy BTC.
    • AT
      Alun T.
      25 October 2020 @ 15:34
      You sure? will watch again just to check.............
  • MC
    Michael C.
    25 October 2020 @ 14:03
    I think Raoul mentioned The Fourth Turning and I have head other RIA mention it. I would like to hear how the book has shaped Raoul and others thinking. It seems very macro to me.
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    24 October 2020 @ 11:15
    We know that bitcoin is nice investment. But the question when to buy more, when will there be a pull back?
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:02
      Time in market > Timing the market The best strategy is to dollar cost average since the day to day prices are totally unpredictable. You can set up daily buys through cash app or Swan bitcoin.
    • gr
      guy r.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:08
      dollar cost average in. simple. try trade it good luck. from 20yrs in finance most traders fail.
    • JW
      Jason W.
      25 October 2020 @ 10:43
      Also at what level do we buy? Coinbase where you don’t receive the keys? A fund which is rare ? Or what else??
  • BS
    Brandon S.
    24 October 2020 @ 17:22
    Anyone investing in crypto you need to DYOR about the Hedera Hashgraph network and hbar. A scarce supply, faster to finality than Etherium, more secure with stable fees and world class decentralized governance. The assymetric risk reward is insane.
    • CH
      Crag H.
      25 October 2020 @ 10:21
      "World class decentralized governance" What? They literally have a governing council consisting of big corps. It's just one of thousands to claim to be better than the rest. Just buy Bitcoin and start winning.
  • sc
    sung c.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:08
    I've been investing on my own now; my cash, my gains, my losses, for around 35 years now. I've been fortunate to have done well enough to still be doing it without going bankrupt, and well enough to the point of retiring and managing my own portfolio still. Although I heard about Bitcoin back in 2013 (when I thought it was a sham and tulip bubble forming), and did not take the plunge till 2016, but I still kept my mind open to its possibilities. Here's what I find interesting, indeed, perplexing. During my decades in the market, ( including the 87' crash which I was lucky to fare well on), I've studied what the pundits have said; and I've watched companies which should have gone bankrupt being bailed out and continuing on as "zombie" companies, continuously sucking up capital from the stock market and the uneducated public, i.e. Hertz and Kodak at the moment. Here's what is interesting. People will accept and not say anything about such companies, but today we have BTC, which on its own merits, has achieved, in spite of all the hate and naysayers out there, to have gone through several 4-year cycles as predicted in the "white paper" by Satoshi, and they will disrespect what it has achieved without having studied it thoroughly. Now mind you, I don't have anything against a person who studies something and dismisses it, that is their right, but to not study it thoroughly and dismiss it, that is the greatest of arrogance. If there is one thing I've learned in the markets, it's this: arrogance will always cost you; either in failure to recognize your mistakes by holding on to a losing trade far too long, or in missing out on what could have been the next Amazon, Apple, or Google, by never getting in because you missed the initial 500% rise in price. Question we all should ask ourselves: "Which one am I?".
    • CH
      Crag H.
      25 October 2020 @ 09:58
      100%. As someone else said: "I've yet to come across someone who studied Bitcoin in-depth and didn't come out hugely bullish".
  • MC
    Michael C.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:37
    At the risk of having rocks thrown at me, I will note the following - if one is looking at years in this "trade" like Raoul and not wanting to be cute, my comments are not pertinent. - but Paul Tudor Jones, Mike Novogratz, and the talking heads on CNBC were talking about bitcoin this week plus the Paypal news, IMF news, etc came out. IMO this is like when Buffett's Barrick Gold acquisition came out...what everyone knows isn't worth knowing and the hardest trade is the best trade. - Tommy Thorton's Demark 13 sell signal - in a sell off, assets esp liquid ones become highly correlated...bitcoin went down with equities in March. I think there's a higher than average chance for a selloff in the next few months...we'll see. -technically using a comparison to a risk free asset like a 10 year Treasury bond, bitcoin was an easy buy from the March low. Now it's at the top of the weekly range. The July, 2019 highs are looming...again IMO, it's going to take awhile to chew thru those price levels as people have been trapped for 18 months to get even. I do understand the giddiness...;) Full disclosure: I started trimming my bitcoin position with the items above in mind, still hold a substantial ethereum
    • MC
      Michael C.
      24 October 2020 @ 00:28
      continued: And USA Today had an article on 10/21 https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/investing/2020/10/21/paypal-will-allow-customers-to-buy-and-sell-cryptocurrencies-on-its-platform/42866677/ Ding, ding, ding...grin
    • JM
      Jiri M.
      24 October 2020 @ 12:44
      Sure, there can be some selloff, in the coming months. Can be taken either negatively from a short term, or positively from longer term as a good buying opportunity. With respect to ETH, you do not see the same correlation there? I would say it would go down even deeper when some bad event hits - as it is smaller, therefore more volatile than BTC.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      25 October 2020 @ 02:10
      My spidey sense and some subjective judgement pushed to me to close my bitcoin position (for now). But I like objective, hard data. Go to Google Trends and look at bitcoin, ethereum, market crash, and FAANG terms and note the dates...;)
  • IW
    Ian W.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:55
    Great analysis as always, guys. Would love to hear a follow-up with some other guests re: the CLO ETFs that Jack mentioned. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      25 October 2020 @ 00:23
      We're working on it 😀
  • JA
    John A.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:01
    Yikes, CLO ETF's. Might as well just light your money on fire as a retail person trying to trade something that even people in the space have to do work on to even hope to understand. Nice work on the open Jack.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      25 October 2020 @ 00:22
      Thank you John. What strikes me is not so much that the risks are *extreme* - but rather that the yield that investors coup for these risks is so low.
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    25 October 2020 @ 00:20
    For those interested in GBTC, here is a live tracker of the price premium of GBTC relative to the actual amount of BTC the trust holds: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav
  • DS
    David S.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:24
    Great opening Mr. Farley. The rating agencies should have been raked over the coals in court with the mortgage debacle in 2008. Thanks for getting the word out. I prefer market information like this for the opening of the DB. Thanks again. DLS
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      25 October 2020 @ 00:19
      Thank you, David. Noted that you prefer deeper dives into the hinterlands of finance. Always appreciate your input!
  • JL
    James L.
    24 October 2020 @ 08:21
    There may be a finite number of Bitcoins on a single ledger, but there are an infinite number of potential ledgers based on the same protocol with a new Genesis block.
    • GB
      Graeme B.
      24 October 2020 @ 08:39
      Network effects.
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:16
      The code is not the value, the network is the value. The mining equipment for bitcoin can't be used for any other application. Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) are the mining equipment that secure the network. The security, the name recognition, the fascinating history, the censorship resistance all cannot be copied.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:36
      James, there is already practically infinite amount of ledgers and when there is a new fork that gains any traction, you can sell it to gain more bitcoin. I almost doubled my bitcoin holdings short after the fork of Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash, by selling all the forks back to bitcoin.
    • JL
      James L.
      25 October 2020 @ 00:15
      I agree. So people should stop saying it is scare. It is only network effects and if the consensus changes there could be something else. I’m not saying it won’t go to 100K. I’m just saying it is speculation, not money.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:40
    I'm decidedly ignorant on this topic, but I still don't understand how a government ban of BTC is a non-event or even feasibly circumvented. In another piece you (Raoul) mentioned how the ban of gold in the US was ineffective at deterring an asset that had a several millennia history. But it was clearly devastating for holders in the US who complied with FDR's order. Even if you didn't comply with the order, you were left with an asset that you couldn't use for four decades. I'm trying to play this out in my mind: suppose the G7 bans BTC and Russia openly embraces BTC. Given that BTC is traceable, one can't just sell BTC on a Russian website and receive USD to place in one's ...perhaps soon to be ...Federal Reserve bank account. If one flies to Saint Petersburg with a USB drive housing my BTC keys and exchange for a useable asset in the US, say gold for this thought experiment, I'm guessing the Feds are going to have a few questions as you arrive in the states with bars of gold in your suitcase. Unless one ups and moves to Vladivostok with said USB drive, exactly how is one going to extract the value in their BTC? ...I'm fine with the weather in Vladivostok, but I'm guessing that the folks in moderately more temperate climates like Little Cayman and NYC, might not be entirely enthralled by that prospect. :-) I also don't get the liquidating your position before a ban occurs argument. A federal ban on BTC, if by Presidential order, could be instantaneous, or at least the price move may be. Governments, unfortunately, have all the power. A competitor to a US digital coin (which surely will have debasement built in), ain't going to fare well in my, admittedly ignorant, position. Please enlighten me on these concerns.
    • sc
      sung c.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:13
      I have a question for you Steven. Suppose this so called government ban eventually comes, who knows when and by which government and to what extent, especially since by that time all the brokers such as Fidelity, Schwab, etc, and all the banks are holding and trading in BTC., Visa, M/C, PayPal are all in on BTC: a) by what extent will they be able to ban BTC without a revolution? and b) how much will BTC have gone up in value by then? In other words, how much do you want to lose out on while sitting out the market and waiting for your concern about a government ban to come to fruition?
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:14
      Good points, Sung. To be clear, I currently hold about 8% of my assets in BTC. So, I'm no BTC hater. I agree that with increasing adoption, a ban would be increasingly difficult. But what if there's a ban before brokers and banks are holding large amounts of BTC? Certainly the language from central bankers, the pilot program in Sweden and the IMF white paper reveal that digital currencies on their minds. I'd think that substantial institutional adoption might take 20 months to 3 years, but perhaps there's a ban next year when it's abundantly clear that we have an economic disaster on our hands? Modern governments would detest alternatives to sovereign digital currencies with fixed supply. Indeed, private currencies are illegal in the US and I can't help but think that BTC would easily be viewed as a private currency once the Feds transition to a sovereign digital currency. How could they not? Governments need an inflationary currency. To your second point, I don't think it really matters how much BTC has appreciated, if there's a ban, it'll come out of left field and have immediate consequences. It wouldn't be like a downgrade of a stock where it's still traded and worth 90% it's value the previous day. If there was ban by presidential order, the precedent is up to 5 years in prison as per the 18 US Code 486. I certainly wouldn't be using BTC under those circumstances. I'm invested in BTC because I think there is a large upside and I'm willing to risk the probability of a ban. But I just don't see how people can write-off the possibility of a ban and believe that there still will be a useable market for BTC given such a ban.
    • sc
      sung c.
      24 October 2020 @ 06:03
      My apologies, thanks for clarifying your BTC position. I doubt they will ban it this early. To do so is to admit they are threatened by it when only recently Powell had come out an stated that BTC was not of real concern. In fact, banning BTC in the next few years would only add fuel to BTC momentum throughout the world. In this internet age, many will quickly come up with ways to bypass such a ban. Also, think of how many politicians will be voted out of office if they passed a bill to ban it. Do you know how much GBTC and how many BTC is already owned by companies and funds? In the tens of billions. The government would be opening up an illegal procedure of seizure without merit, since they would have to claim a threat to the U.S. economy to enact such action, and doing so will only give more credibility to the BTC story as an asset class. Governments are therefore in a hard place. It's too early to claim a need to ban, and too late to do so because of the world adoption already at play. The cat's out of the bag. Their best play is trying to accumulate as much BTC as possible, as quietly as possible in conjunction with the European Central banks, and getting into position of turning BTC into their world currency by controlling as many BTC quickly and quietly as possible. This will, of course, only push the price of BTC into the $millions.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 08:30
      Thank you very much for sharing your views on this, Sung. I greatly appreciate it and it gives me more to think about.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:57
      In Western countries the governments are independent of the court and it violates every single constitution to arbitrarily ban owning an asset. In tyrannies it is easy like we have seen in China, but I at least hope we can retain a democracy in the western world. Anyways, in your dystopic scenario, Switzerland is one of the most pro-crypto countries in the world, so I would prefer to squat out there in stead of Vladivostok.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 19:33
      Thanks for your comment, Lauri. I'm unaware of constitutional protections of private BTC ownership. The courts didn't help when the FDR initiated a ban on gold ownership for 40 years. Indeed, there are laws against private currencies in the US. I think it's feasible that BTC would be considered a private currency in the US if a very similar digital government currency. I was just dovetailing on Raoul's game theory comment about Russia adopting BTC as a state currency. ...I'm fond on Switzerland as well.
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:18
      Great discussion folks, open and quality debating. I also have some of the concerns you have Steve but it won’t stop me taking 3% of my wealth and getting into crypto now. If they try to confiscate my gold or silver it will be more of a challenge as it’s in allocated accounts in Cayman and Switzerland. I am not sure the US government will risk civil war this go around. The populace is not as compliant, not as under armed as it was in the 30s. Nor is it as “god fearing”.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 23:08
      I agree, Will. I can't see widespread compliance with a ban of either precious metals or BTC. Much more distrust of the government and there's much more armed segment of the population that would be willing to resist a government order. That said, gun ownership as a percentage of households is only a fraction of what it was in the 1930s or even 1970s. But back to point concerning a potential revolt of some sort against a BTC ban, aren't estimates of the number of people in the US holding BTC far below 10%? Many of those may only own $100 in BTC and not really care from a personal finance prospective if that was taken away. I suppose the draconian principle of a ban may motivate more folks, though. I'm just having a difficult time thinking that governments won't want a monopoly on digital currencies and that BTC is about the perfect competitor to a government coin that may thwart the attempts to create a digital coin with properties of fiat currencies and individualized interest rates. I'm still holding onto my physical gold (5%), physical silver (5%), miners (25%), BTC (8%), selected stocks (35%), commodity positions (5%), and residential real estate (17%). For me, I find BTC to be a complex topic that has grown in complexity with the current state of affairs. So, I'm just trying to work through and make sense of possible scenarios and potential trajectories of BTC. I understand math, probability theory, several areas of science and things like hunting (holding onto my Winchester M70, etc. :-) ), but I don't grasp finance and crypto very well yet. I appreciate all of the points made and taking the time to discuss. On a somewhat related point, it would be nice to get Peter Brandt back on Essential to hear his current take on BTC technicals. Best, Steve
  • ES
    Erich S.
    24 October 2020 @ 23:06
    Love this episode and keep the BTC talk coming. Would love to hear when might be an opportune time to take some profits when the bull run cools down in a year or two.
  • sh
    steve h.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:03
    would GBTC be a good way to start investing ?
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:32
      Steve I intend to look into a self directed ira way to get a bitcoin account immediately. However I did buy GBTC in one IRA on Wednesday. It’s not BTC, and it’s not an ETF, but it is good exposure to the underlying. My 2 cents.
  • DF
    Douglas F.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:29
    Really? Really? At the end of a week when markets have been focused on issues such as stimulus negotiations, the US elections, and a resurgence of Covid cases, all you can talk about is cryptocurrencies, which are, by and large, the equivalent of placing your chips on the roulette wheel at a casino??? How many of us do you think invest in that junk, or let alone have an interest???? I'm not paying membership fees to listen to you guys talk about gambling, I want REAL insights into the current state of the markets. If you're going to name this site 'Coronavirus update', then can you at least focus on real assets, like stocks, bonds and hard currencies??? This is, by far and away, your worst performance ever, Raoul!!!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 October 2020 @ 00:55
      haha, thanks!
    • DS
      David S.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:50
      There is huge content on RV on real assets, like stocks, bonds, and hard(?) currencies. I cannot even keep up with just the videos. On top of that you have the Exchange and Reports I never look at. The catalog of past presentations is a gold mine. I hope this helps as I can understand your frustration if Bitcoin is low on your radar. It is Friday, the end of very busy week. Let's have a drink with friends. Enjoy your weekend. Be safe. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:04
      I have to echo David S here. I can no longer keep up with the content at the Pro level. There is more than enough to go around. Raoul is a smart guy, smarter than me, so I will listen to what he says and invest once making up my own mind.
  • DT
    David T.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:38
    Jack's info was the best today. Digital tulips talk is becoming repetitive and boring.
    • CW
      Corey W.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:42
      Digital Tulips? Educate yourself on the application value of BTC. When in 1-2 years BTC is 10-30 TIMES where it is now, you'll be wishing you had smelled those digital tulips.
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:00
      David, I was where you were just a few months ago. But I think I can smell authorities rapidly moving to crypto. I am going to put just 3% of my investable funds into crypto most likely bitcoin with some That sum, if a 15k stater price gets to 100k, would instantly turn me into HNW investor. If I lose it all, it means my kids lose maybe 25% of their inheritance. What’s to lose? I am already 25% allocated precious metals and 20% miners, rest mostly cash.
  • WS
    William S.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:37
    I luv hearing abiut BTC - all day - a session on cold storage would be good and multi-sig
  • JA
    Johan A.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:37
    Love it! Money nerver sleeps! For sure true in crypto space!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:35
    I'd be happy to have you extend Friday's with Raoul to 45-60 minutes. I really look forward to this. Thank you for explaining, expounding and pounding the table on bitcoin.
  • DA
    David A.
    24 October 2020 @ 06:31
    Goldman Sachs of course do not "get" Bitcoin. At the moment, I am struggling too. I'd be really interested in a level-headed debate which address their concerns: "The bank gave five reasons why investors should shy away from the cryptocurrency: 1. Bitcoin does not generate cash flow like bonds. 2. Bitcoin does not generate any earnings through exposure to global economic growth. 3. Bitcoin does not provide consistent diversification benefits given its unstable correlations. 4. Bitcoin does not dampen volatility given historical volatility of 76%. Goldman points to March 12 when bitcoin fell 37% in a single day as evidence that bitcoin's volatility is through the roof. 5. Bitcoin does not show evidence of hedging against inflation. Goldman said that "a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a suitable investment...""
    • GB
      Graeme B.
      24 October 2020 @ 08:46
      Raoul has explained loads of reasons why Bitcoin. Even in this video.
    • KT
      Kris T.
      24 October 2020 @ 09:52
      Most of these points can be made about gold also.
    • ST
      Sébastien T.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:20
      Keep in mind that gold miners create more supply as price goes up. This is not the case with Bitcoin. No matter how high the price goes, no extra supply can be found.
    • EB
      Emmanuel B.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:39
      although the new supply of gold gets more and more marginal and is extremely capital intensive. So yes, there are still deposits discovered and extracted but in the grand scheme of things, supply decreases very fast. Look at a chart of gold supply in the past 5 years
    • AD
      Adam D.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:51
      1. Bitcoin does not generate cash flow like bonds. - Use the renVM bridge to send your bitcoin to the ethereum network as a renBTC token and use it in defi for yields higher than bonds don't listen to what they say, watch what they do. They want to accumulate it at low prices so they won't promote it.
    • TK
      Tom K.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:39
      I struggled with similar concerns until this year. David think of Bitcoin more like real hard money than as an "investment". Real hard money doesn't generate cash flow or earnings or diversification unless it is invested. Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing as it matures. If you measure inflation as in an increase in the supply of dollars ... well then it's definitely a hedge as Bitcoin's quantity has a hard cap. Start looking at Bitcoin as a form of hard money instead of an investment ... that change in context may be helpful. It helped me anyway. Good luck out there!
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      24 October 2020 @ 20:15
      1. Bonds generate cash flow? $16 trillion and rising in negative yielding debt. See the "bonds" they are trying to sell you today from Jack's piece in this DB. CLO's The banking system is trying to get that crap off of their books on onto yours and your pension funds. 2. Bitcoin is exposure to one of the fastest growing sectors in the world economy, crypto and DeFi, via the network effect. It is the reserve asset of this new emerging financial system. 2. CAPE is at near historic highs, 1929, 2000, The expected returns on equity over the next ten years have a high probability of being subpar. 3. At critical points where liquidity vanishes, everything becomes correlated. True in physics at critical points. True in the financial system. Once criticality passes, the real value of each asset quickly reasserts itself, and the correlations disappear. 4. Don't leverage asymmetric macro trades. One is betting on the destination. The path to the destination may be crooked and unexpected. Leverage can take you out fo the trade even though you are right. With leverage one is betting not only on the destination, but the path to the destination. 5. Is wrong. Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation (and deflation) in the long term. Its volatility, in the short term, as a new asset, overwhelms that hedging attribute. Chart bitcoin against anything over the last ten years. Nothing beats it. Past returns do not guarantee future returns, but then Goldman is trying to sell you stocks at historic CAPE, and bonds with historically low yields.
  • KF
    Kim F.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:36
    Raoul and Ash. This kid ( I say with respect) is growing leaps and bound. He should be doing more of these type of intros. Please don't waste his talent. Guys (and gals) like this don't come along that often.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:22
    Thanks for the show, I'm gonna keep dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin.
  • CO
    Christian O.
    24 October 2020 @ 12:11
    Death rates aren't going up in the US.
    • EK
      Eric K.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:59
      Let’s see in a month or two if that’s true.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    24 October 2020 @ 18:48
    Raoul points out the fact that while he's bullish at a level that seems techno-fanatical to some, he comes from macro and that's the lens through which he evaluates opportunities. Coming more from tech myself and just diving into the financial world and macro this year, I would say that I felt bitcoin was a massive opportunity but perhaps I was overestimating it as I needed to understand the other side. Hearing Raoul's case for bitcoin really closes the loop.. HODL
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    24 October 2020 @ 15:53
    How much is the crypto tier going to be?
    • RA
      Robert A.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:05
      I think Raoul announced they are going to put it in front of the pay wall for everyone!
    • JD
      John D.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:40
      I believe it's free.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    24 October 2020 @ 16:30
    Fascinating and I happen to completely agree with Raoul’s bullish stance. But as with all investments, one has to be aware of the time horizon, and agree that this is a hard one to trade around. The KISS principle certainly applies.
  • LP
    Lauri P.
    24 October 2020 @ 15:57
    Geez, a CLO ETF is safe for retail, yet SEC still can't get their ass together to approve a BTC ETF?
  • PB
    Paul B.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:41
    I've said for a while now, Digital Currency and UBI with a Time Clock is the way its going to go from here...They the Criminal Bankers have no option. the USD is at the end of the 100 year debt cycle on top of the 7 to 10 year Cycle. They know this and Digital Time Clock UBI is the ONLY way they can keep this shit storm alive
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:44
      This situation would be very bullish on bitcoin, because people would scramble to sell there UBI coins into stores of value, like bitcoin. Doesn't really matter if it isn't allowed, black markets will fill the void left by counterproductive policy.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    24 October 2020 @ 11:04
    Some guests to have on from the crypto space. Anthony Pompliano, Preston Pysh, Caitlin Long.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:29
      I think Jimmy Song would be a great one too. He's a bitcoin core developer and very informed on the relation between the link of technology and economics in bitcoin.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:22
    Great Friday wrap up. I agree on not being too cute, that being said Bitcoin won't have a straight line to $1m. There will be ups and downs as before. I held through the large 2017/18 cycle and should've cashed out. If I had done so my BTC position would be at least double what it is today. If we rush up to say $150k in the next year or so does anyone in the group plan to cash out or a percentage thereof, wait for the market to cool off and repurchase after a retrace via DCA or another method. As the market grows, in theory there will be less volatility so I also see this as a chance in a lifetime to create a large BTC position. I would love to hear others comments on their strategy with respect to BTC.
    • JB
      Jordan B.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:24
      Party, yes.
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:28
      It's just too risky for me to trade, but if it moons too fast (>$400k), I might sell a little. We'll have to see what the landscape will look like then.
  • CS
    Charles S.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:26
    This BTC agnostic was most impressed w/ Raul's BTC enthusiasm today, enough so to then spend 2 hrs w/ "Bitcoin Infiltrates Corporate America (w/ Michael Saylor and Raoul Pal)", which was most entertaining. Unfortunately both of these segments were all fiat hyperbole and metaphor, and the swipes at gold were errant shots at straw men. Please recommend a reasoned, developed argument for BTC that can supplement the Just So stories presented here.
    • TK
      Tom K.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:47
      Read the first 72 pages of The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous. And do it quickly. :-)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 October 2020 @ 02:14
      Agreed The Bitcoin Standard.
    • IW
      Ian W.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:59
      I've also had this issue, Charles. It seems that most (even Raoul on occasion, and of course Michael Saylor) come across as overly bullish for idealistic reasons but assume you have the understanding of "why." For me, as with others, The Bitcoin Standard was what pushed me over from agnostic to believer. I'm not "irresponsibly long," but am a believer and think the next few years will be critical for the thesis.
    • CS
      Charles S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:26
      Thanks all. Raoul's conversation w/ Saylor was quite good and engaging, it's just that it wasn't the prescription for this BTC agnostic -- I found partial-convert Keith McCullough's interview this week w/ Saylor to be closer to that.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    24 October 2020 @ 06:53
    Can anyone confirm my thinking - with most trades one needs an exit stratedy but with bitcoin this is not the case?
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:22
      It is valuable over a long time horizon as it increases in scarcity and you may ask yourself if anything can be a superior store of value? Certainly not a fiat currency; they are all going digital as well.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:19
    Awesome! I am long GBTC;)
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      24 October 2020 @ 08:11
      Would GBTC sell-off when a bitcoin ETF is approved?
    • ST
      Sébastien T.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:18
      Don't think so, an ETF would be very bullish however the premium for GBTC would certainly reduce
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:19
      If possible, learn how to custody the asset yourself instead of trusting grayscale. They are susceptible to regulatory risks and theft, whereas the base asset is extremely resistant to those risks.
  • JS
    John S.
    24 October 2020 @ 11:11
    Very Bullish! One thing not addressed, unless I missed it, when talking about Governments and Crypto is that they don’t have to stop it just make it really hard to acquire and trade. Like Raoul says it’s open to us on the street now, but for how long?
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:09
      It's hard to say for certain, but infrastructure is being built out for trading to continue regardless of legality with open source software. Two decentralized exchanges exist currently that would be nearly impossible to shut down: Bisq and HodlHodl.
  • AR
    Al R.
    24 October 2020 @ 15:04
    Keiths top talent is talking smack about other people, making fun and ridiculing
  • CG
    Chris G.
    24 October 2020 @ 13:22
    Great show - crypto is the future! However bitcoin / crypto dropped in line with the March 2020 crash. If we have a bears market coming up due to the economic depression, which could last for a few years, could bitcoin drop below $10k for the duration? Or could it break away and keep going up as forecast?
    • AT
      Afolabi T.
      24 October 2020 @ 14:17
      I'm wondering if the equity market and crypto have now started diverging as well. But this may not be the same case if we see another crash. Possibly we could see BTC go down again as well. There's a bit of uncertainty but it depends on how far your trade forecast is going what your risk/reward will be.
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:00
      The March 2020 crash was a liquidity event and bitcoin is extremely liquid, so it was sold off quickly. Bitcoin is not great in a liquidity event, but it is a great hedge in an insolvency event. It will perform well if there is stimulus and it will also perform well in a deflationary debt crisis.
  • PH
    Pat H.
    24 October 2020 @ 14:47
    So you just buy Bitcoin from a Bitcoin atm and if it goes up, your account just increases?
    • JS
      Jesse S.
      24 October 2020 @ 14:54
      It's more like buying a piece of property and the property value goes up.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    24 October 2020 @ 12:59
    Super Jack!
  • JG
    Joe G.
    24 October 2020 @ 11:42
    Great content RV. Keep it up.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    24 October 2020 @ 11:14
    When will Bitwise launch that TOP 10 crypto ETF???
  • DH
    Darren H.
    24 October 2020 @ 10:57
    Jack is really pretty in this one. I like his combo of baby face + receding hairline keep it up
    • DH
      Darren H.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:59
      By the way haha this isn’t a troll he is legit visually attractive in a weird transfixing way hahah
  • TT
    T T.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:05
    Any views on having exposure to Bitcoin through Bitcoin Tracker One ETN? Thanks
    • AD
      Adam D.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:46
      not your keys not your funds. get the safest wallet you can. 3rd parties are probably the biggest risk for loosing funds.
    • AD
      Adam D.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:47
      get a hardware wallet like trezor or ledger
  • EB
    Emmanuel B.
    24 October 2020 @ 10:36
    Since you ask Ash ;) i'd very much welcome an interview of Charles Hoskinson from Cardano
  • RE
    Renato E.
    24 October 2020 @ 10:16
    Why don't you change RealVision in CryptoVision? It seems that nothing else matters anymore...
  • LK
    L K.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:27
    Excellent conversation Raoul/Ash and thanks for an outstanding intro Jack. Raoul's explanation about assymetry for the retail investors is most pertinent and far more responsible than any crypto evangelist. The one thing that struck me as incoherent, is how Raoul thinks hedge funds are going to find alpha when he criticized Keith McCullough for his trading strategy. Please can Raoul develop his thoughts on this?
    • AT
      Anthony T.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:09
      Crypto hedge funds trade not only bitcoin, but riskier and speculative assets such as small and med-cap DeFi project tokens.
  • JW
    J W.
    24 October 2020 @ 09:41
    CLO ETF’s - I am surprised nobody quoted Mark Baum yet :-) so let me do that here : Mortgage bonds are dog shit, CDOs are dog shit wrapped in cat shit. I think CLO ETF’s are probably worse so I won’t expand on that narrative here ! :-) And the fact that rating agencies are rating this as triple A is another scene straight from the Big Short movie. This attempt to make this stuff available to all investors is beyond cynical in my view.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    24 October 2020 @ 09:11
    I can't imagine Raoul on a Peloton..... A Pelofarthing perhaps.
  • EK
    Euna K.
    24 October 2020 @ 08:37
    “That’s VERY bullish Raoul”. Haha.
  • CG
    Christine G.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:48
    Great discussion. How can we put bitcoin in an IRA? I know some brokerages are thinking about it, but mine (TDAmeritrade) has not taken the plunge. Who has? Thanks
    • TP
      Tate P.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:51
      Grayscale Bitcoin trust - GBTC
    • PJ
      Paul J.
      24 October 2020 @ 03:05
      You can buy GBTC in an IRA (assuming you're American). It's a closed-end fund that's backed by actual Bitcoin so at times the premium can get a bit pricey. There are also ways to set up a self-directed IRA where you can buy Bitcoin and even manage your own private keys.
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:50
      Take a look at https://www.perpetualassets.com/
    • MO
      Master O.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:46
      Just buy Microstrategey stock ticker MSTR or GBTC fund. Be aware that GBTC is a closed ended fund so you will be paying a premium over the NAV.
    • FL
      Ferdinand L.
      24 October 2020 @ 07:19
      Traditional brokerage firms like TD Ameritrade, Schwab, and Fidelity don't offer the ability to own/trade crypto. You will need to go with non-traditional custodians. Check out: https://itrustcapital.com/
  • mb
    mark b.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:11
    crypto all the way . . . keep it coming . . thank you!
  • mb
    mark b.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:11
    crypto all the way . . . keep it coming . . thank you!
  • MM
    Matthew M.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:59
    RV is rockin it!! Well done team #21million
  • TN
    Tyler N. | Real Vision
    24 October 2020 @ 01:53
    Jack Farley is a gem- kid has a great career ahead of him;)
    • MO
      Master O.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:44
      Tyler when are you back on the Daily Brief show?
  • DM
    David M.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:31
    Love the crypto/BTC coverage here on RV. I strongly recommend you have Alex Mashinsky, CEO of CelsiusNetwork on for an interview. Seeing BTC as the chance, finally, for main streeters to build wealth before wall streeters pocket the biggest gains is spot on. Education is key, as always 😎👍
  • BT
    Ben T.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:27
    Another excellent RVDB. Apologies for asking for freebies but given BTC is THE trade opportunity of the moment do you think there is any chance Raoul’s report might be also made available to Plus or all membership tiers?
  • DG
    David G.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:37
    Does anyone know who owns the bulk of Bitcoin? Is a lot of it is concentrated in to a few hands? It doesn't pay dividends, and It only has value when you sell it for something real. What is to stop paper billionaires from liquidating and becoming real billionaires. Even the gold bug can play with his yellow metal on weekends, but the crypto guy only has something when he sell it. I have always looked at bitcoin as a trade, a secular pump and dump. Make sure you can read a chart with this one. I can't see it as anything but speculation, one in which there is nothing to own if it fails to replace central currency. But a lot of money can be made in speculation. Make sure you are not the last one to leave the party. In other news, Roaul was in rare form today, cheers!
    • JB
      Jordan B.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:21
      “It doesn’t pay dividends and only has value when you trade it for something real.” This is true for USD as well. The conviction bitcoiners hold is that bitcoin will attract more investment over time while the USD et al will shed capital due to government manipulation, banking shenanigans, the debt situation, etc...
  • JB
    Jordan B.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:13
    When COVID comes back this winter and the economy slows, should we expect a short to midterm drop on bitcoin and a opportunity to buy more?
  • ML
    Mehdi L.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:01
    So the SEC allows a CLO ETF based on wrong statistics / mathematics, but doesn’t allow a Bitcoin ETF?
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:46
    One word FANTASTIC, Getting up early Saturday morning and listen to this is the best moment in the weekend. I getting more and more conformation that my way of thinking is right with crypto this is a great opportunity for younger people and also for us who will retire in 10 years because the money we give away to the state and expect to get back at 65 years old is not much in purchasing power. I am almost all in with crypto and Silver since 2017 and every crash in crypto is a buying opportunity.
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:40
    Look to the Spanish flu - it went around 3 times and each time it was worse, all pandemics are the same - so we all just have to wait for it to pass and hold on. Don't be surprized when the death toll rises, it is all part of the pandemic. Sorry to post bad news - but reality is a hard pill to swollow.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:30
      I somewhat agree. There were no antibiotics to treat secondary infections in 1918, nor was there an ability to make an influenza vaccine. Additionally, each pathogen has it's own mortality and transmissibility characteristics. SARS2 is different than the 1918 influenza, we now have antibiotics for secondary infections, we now have the ability to produce vaccines. That said, back in late Feb or early March, some CDC folks paid my institution a visit and their non-public projections were 120M infected in the US and 1M US deaths. That was based on the initial strain with marginally higher mortality rates, but it looks like they may not that far off. I think it won't be quite that bad and the early vaccine data looks fairly good. So, I'm optimistic that we only hit 500K deaths in the US. The simple lesson is: shut down quickly, globally, for a few weeks, flood with Dx testing and tracing. We would have all been back to normal in April. Very few COVID deaths, very few suicides, very few excess deaths from overloaded healthcare, very little rise in unemployment, and minimal economic impact.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:39
      Don’t forget the second wave coincided with the demobilization of millions of soldiers malnourished for years, and stuffing them in railroad cars to get them home.
  • ns
    nikolay s.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:37
    Tone Vays please
  • SS
    Steven S.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:35
    You knocked it out of the park, Jack. Spectacular work
  • MC
    Mike C.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:33
    Been trying to open a corporate account for my private office with BTC Markets in Australia (thinking opening an account with a business governed by Australian law offers more protection....maybe incorrectly). Its been a nightmare. A month later and the account is still not open ffs.
  • BC
    Bobby C.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:14
    Really great CLO piece by Jack especially the piece on rating agency gaps! 2008 tranche redux...really liked the Ashe / Raoul crypto discussion and learn a lot from the macro disruptive narratives. I enjoy how Ashe & Ed ask questions and discuss with Daily guests. Raoul's insightful comment about investing when you have enough personal evidence for strong investment but the mass narrative isn't 100% there yet is so true for best risk/reward opportunities. Cathy Wood would be an interesting person for an upcoming Real Vision crypto interview as ARK put forth several interesting narrative growth use cases in whitepapers for future bitcoin value in September if you haven't seen them.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:56
    Jack on fire. More of that and oh by the way Crypto is a great trade. Thanks. Great show. Next week can we start an official drinking game for RVDB? 2 shots if Ash says "amid" a little sip if Raoul says crypto...just so we can all make it through it.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      24 October 2020 @ 04:14
      Ha. Sounds like a plan!
  • GH
    Galen H.
    24 October 2020 @ 04:02
    When I hear someone say that crypto is a fad, or its the same as conventional money so what's the point etc. A decent reference is to ask them if they've ever seen an eGaming tournament? Or aware that eGaming has more viewers than NFL, or looked into the size and rate of growth of the virtual goods economy? (What's it estimated at now? $22bn?) And then ask, how much of this they think will be paid for in "conventional" money in 20 years time time (5 years time?).
  • MB
    Mickel B.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:13
    To respond to the video... IMO it's about isolating the best opportunities. If it's crypto, it's crypto, if its something else, then it's something else. This convergence is just potentially opening so many more doors it's incredible. In all markets knowledge is key, keep up the good work.
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:12
    Thank you, I now see the light -bitcoin for the next 5 years and wealth.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:47
    Best interview I’ve seen on the Daily Briefing. It’s almost as if I got a front page seat to read Global Macro Insider on bitcoin by Raoul. Thanks for the vision of the future of crypto.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:43
    Hot DAMN, Jack hits hard. Love the open today.
  • JD
    James D.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:30
    Great stuff. Keep going please
  • sc
    sung c.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:05
    Thanks Raoul and Ash! I don't care if it's bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, BTC, or golden dog shit, if it's a good trade, it's a good trade. Let's get away from this discrimination against new assets we don't understand or are too closed minded against, and talk about what is the best trade at the moment. That's what we are here at RV for all your viewpoints and advice.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:25
      Is there a GDS ETF yet? Cute. DLS
  • JT
    John T.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:24
    I said it before ... every time I hear Rauol speak I end up buying more bitcoin. This time I can’t because I moved the money I set aside for the dip that never happened back into my trading account to get into a covered call play on OSTK paying me a 13% premium to hold it for a month. The one reason I’m not kicking myself is because I already got 8% of my portfolio in bitcoin over the last 3 months (with another 1.5% in etherium). Still, I’ve got over 50% in gold miners and 14% in silver, and I see no reason to have bitcoin at such a lower level than those at this point. I am getting a serious FOMO with bitcoin, that it might jump straight to resistance at $16k and never see this level again, but I don’t want to trade on emotions too much either. The only way I’ve found to deal with FOMO is to space out buying over time, and remember the trades that didn’t go so well where jumping in too much would’ve really hurt. It’s good to have some serious optimism on something though.
  • MP
    Marcela P.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:19
    Love the crypto talk! Can't wait for the G. Verdian interview next week! Quant will be huge!!
  • CH
    Corey H.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:05
    Great discussion. I agree w/ Raoul that the BTC investment opportunity is worth highlighting and should continue to be covered as it goes mainstream.
  • JA
    JOSE A.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:55
    Hahaha great ending K.I.S.S.!!!
  • DG
    David G.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:51
    What is on Jack's bookshelf? I can make out Ghost Wars, From Good to Great, the China Price, The Dictionary, The Help. and I what could to be Security Analysis by Graham. Whenever someone does a video in front of their bookshelf, I always get curious as to what is on it. I've be looking at his for months.
  • PR
    Prashanth R.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:55
    Who on earth is stupid enough to invest in these AAA CLOs which are investing in sub BB investments?
    • PR
      Prashanth R.
      23 October 2020 @ 23:57
      @Jack love the clarity of thought in the few mins that you had
    • SS
      Steven S.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:43
      Agreed. Jack you did a great job, as always
  • RH
    Ryan H.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:39
    Let's all hug and get rich together 🤗
    • RH
      Ryan H.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:42
      I've felt exactly the same this week btw Raoul. Giddy. I've been working in crypto since 2016 and now It's all coming together.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:28
    For my part, I want to hear from Mr. Pal every Friday. And I also believe crypto is the future. I’m just not sure if I should buy several bitcoin or simply stack sats and forget about it? Either way, I’m all in. Suggestions?
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:14
    Another great Daily Briefing Ash & Raoul. I've been following the Bitcoin story for a long time and this is a "must see" for people new to the bitcoin space...Bravo, and please keep up the analysis! I found Jack's data on the CLO ETF as truly new data for me. I have not seen this anywhere else (yet). Great work Jack and RV. Something to keep an eye on. Is this market large enough to be a catalyst for another 2008 type deflationary shock if it blows up? Can you give some more context to this market in the larger scale of things? Thanks Team!
  • PW
    Peter W.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:14
    Kudos to Raoul for not giving a damn and focus on what he considers to be a generational opportunity; that's integrity!
  • ZW
    Zi W.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:07
    Thanks Raoul and Ash. Millennial here. Dabbled in Bitcoin and Crypto since mid 2017. I am very happy to see greater coverage on this macro asset on this channel.
  • AK
    Adam K.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:57
    Great video guys, covered a bunch of aspects!
  • Mv
    Martijn v.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:57
    Thank you for this passionate discussion on my favorite topic, a very appropriate end to another good week in crypto! I’ve been addicted since 2013, and the anxiety to NOT be “irresponsibly long” in BTC and ETH is continuously growing, quarter by quarter, milestone by milestone. One of the big opportunities I see is the appearance of multiple staking options (the big one being Ethereum’s Beacon-chain within a couple of months) and see the gradual development of a kind of yield curve.
  • RR
    Ramon R.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:43
    Naval would be my dream guest
  • BT
    Billy T.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:40
    I am that gen-xer little guy and am fully loaded in btc. Something I never would’ve done if not for democratization of financial intel. Boomers have no idea how badly we got screwed.
  • JV
    Jerry V.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:34
    Today's show was a home run. Jack set the table and Raoul knocked it out of the park. I am one of those early retail guys 3 years in crypto and it is refreshing to see the larger financial world leaning in hard. Exciting times ahead. Keeping it simple in Costa Rica - Pura Vida all
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:34
    I love the interviews with Raoul. Even when he is talking about crypto, he still drops a lot of macro nuggets to force one to think.
  • MO
    Mark O.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:30
    Great discussion. Love the passion, and after the recent crypto news, entirely appropriate focus this week.
  • DT
    David T.
    24 October 2020 @ 00:16
    1. So, when Bitcoin goes to million $$$, one will sell Bitcoin and become a fiat millionaire?? :)) Useless. It’s when Raoul prices and sells his real estate in crypto without caring much about its equivalency in dollar, one can say that crypto made it. 2.Yeltsin did not give away any commodities to people. State Assets were stolen from Russian people by few oligarchs that are billionaires now. Putler stole the whole country. 3. Russia, Iran Venezuela and the rest of dictatorships and totalitarian regimes hate Bitcoin and Crypto. Crypto threatens their autocratic regimes.
  • RA