Raoul’s Christmas Market Wrap

Published on
December 18th, 2020
Duration
42 minutes

Mike Green – This Car Has No Brakes (But We’re Driving Uphill)


Raoul’s Christmas Market Wrap

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: December 18th, 2020 • Duration: 42 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his market wrap-up of 2020. They monitor the price dislocations at the close as the S&P 500 was under pressure all day ahead of Tesla’s historic entry into the index. Pal looks back at the year that was from equities to the bond market to crypto to gold, silver and copper. He sees emerging markets breaking out in 2021, specifically identifying opportunities in Iran. In the intro, Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin touches upon Coinbase filing for an IPO as Bitcoin surges to all-time highs.

Comments

Transcript

  • KE
    Kevin E.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:12
    I love Raoul, but death facts wrong. 600,000 Americans killed just in the American Civil War.
    • KE
      Kevin E.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:21
      2.5% of the U.S. population died in the ACW. .0008% of the U.S. population have died because of Covid. Lets put this into perspective.
    • KE
      Kevin E.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:23
      2.5% of the current U.S. population would equal - 9,375,000 deaths
    • JA
      John A.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:36
      WWII no mention of Civil War
    • MS
      Mark S.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:37
      I agree, especially being from Ohio our part was drilled into our head during school, Saying that I have been a BTC maximalist since March because I discovered RV and Raoul. So crackers, bed. He gets a pass.
    • WT
      William T.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:53
      The exact numbers aren't really the point. No need for splitting hairs
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      19 December 2020 @ 00:54
      Cut him some slack. He misspoke. So what. He's human. We know he did. So what. Pick where you want to make a point. RV has issued many reports since March. The numbers have been covered many times and on an ongoing basis. As well, there have been numerous interviews since March where the numbers have been discussed. This year has been shit, the U.S. has been been failed by our government, more Americans now are hungry and living in tents, unemployed, with more suffering to come. I'm glad your family, presumably, has not been negatively impacted by COVID. Congrats for you. Otherwise, for the hundreds of millions of others, the COVID thing has been a debacle.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      31 December 2020 @ 03:36
      Yeah I heard that also and thought that wasn’t quite right. People don’t realize how traumatic the American Civil War was, especially given the size of the population at the time.
  • JL
    J L.
    19 December 2020 @ 02:09
    Devil's Advocate I: There will not be a blending of "monetary and fiscal" until political structures are changed to allow that, which is a very heavy lift. The central bank is not allowed to stimulate directly or even to create legal tender ex nihilo. The Federal Reserve basically changes the maturity of the assset mix (e.g. dollars are just zero-maturity government securities). The Fed can swap dollars for bonds or bonds for dollars, in otherwords, but it cannot act on its own in terms of initiating legal tender creation or directing payments to people. The Fed cannot make the political decision to spend i.e. send out helicopter money. Congress maintains the power of the purse and will not give it up. This means fiscal is still out of the realm of the Federal Reserve and will remain so until congress relinquishes its grip. Devil's Advocate II: "Never mistake a clear view for a short distance" -- Paul Saffo. Central Bank Digital Currencies are absolutely coming, and are probably inevitable, but the deep technical hurdles involved in actually rolling them out at scale -- along with the significant political hurdles involved -- mean they are likely many years away from having a true impact on policy and finance structures. Devil's Advocate III: The majority of Covid pain is concentrated in the weaker half of the U.S. economy, meaning service workers and the bottom 30-50%. The upper half of the U.S. economy, meaning knowledge workers and white collar, have come through mostly unscathed, both financially and psychologically. Same story in terms of Covid pain landing on small businesses but not so much on publicly traded corporations with strong balance sheets. This means that, when the Fed and Treasury take further efforts to help the bottom 50% of the economy, that liquidity will wash into Wall Street and the upper 50% of the economy -- and fuel an extension of the given boom time mentality. The story of the U.S. economy for decades has been growing inequality and a divergence between winners and losers, haves and have nots. To the extent Wall Street is betting on the "haves" it is possible that the pain of the "have nots" (the lower one-third to one-half) may not matter, and may even be asset-price-stimulative, again, to the degree the government tries to help the lower half, but just winds up juicing the top half and Wall Street. Devil's Advocate IV: The dollar is trending heavily downward because central banks and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are engaging in a historic rebalancing away from dollar-denominated assets. If you have central banks and SWFs collectively reducing their asset mix from, say, 60% USD dollar assets to 40% USD dollar assets in aggregate (which is still a heavy weighting just not as much), that is enough to power a USD downtrend for years while bolstering even more capital inflow into emerging markets (which perpetuates USD divestiture).
    • DS
      David S.
      19 December 2020 @ 06:05
      The CBS and SWFs rebalacing on $US may be a good chance to make money in the FX market when they reach their goal. This would be an interesting presentation. DLS
    • GV
      Gerard V.
      20 December 2020 @ 14:42
      Here is my question? I am not an expert on this but I have been following a lot of Jeff Snider to understand the Eurodollar System. Could QE be part of an organized U.S. currency policy for security purposes and not an actually policy of "easing?" Here is how I understand it...The Fed is buying securities, therefore they are reducing the supply in the market. This actual could have the effect of squeezing foreign banks would need U.S. treasuries (I think they use other "hard" assets like German bunds too, but not to the extent that they use U.S. Treasuries) to collateralize loan obligations. This is the part I'm really not sure of...Ok, so if a Black Swan event happened and there is a run on dollars, the Fed would have a tremendous amount of power on where they would want to distribute dollar assets. I would assume that German would as well with bunds. They could essentially, distribute them to the next round of trading partners, which already include Mexico, Australia, Japan, Canada and the U.K., but could be part of a coordinated effort of currency warfare. I am not at all sure that I am right, I'm just throwing it out there.
    • JL
      J L.
      20 December 2020 @ 16:40
      If a "black swan event" happened to create a demand spike for dollars and treasuries, both the U.S. economy and the German economy would go into a tailspin (along with the rest of the world). At the same time, government borrowing rates would fall to new all-time lows. This would invite new emergency spending authorized by U.S. congress and the German cabinet, locked in at historically low rates, to stabilize their respective economies and meet crisis demand. The weird thing about anticipating a severe treasury shortage is that 1) if you see one, that means times are very bad and borrowing rates are historically low, which is the ideal combination for more fiscal stimulus, which automatically addresses the bond shortage via new supply -- to stimulate is to create new debt supply on the spot -- and 2) treasuries and bunds can literally be created at will by U.S. congress or the German cabinet at any point if they see a need to borrow more, in a crisis period, on extremely favorable terms. Thus there is no theoretical constraint to available treasury supply or bund supply -- only a political will constraint -- and a logical response mechanism for increasing supply in the event of a demand spike.
    • GV
      Gerard V.
      21 December 2020 @ 13:41
      The way I understand it is that there is a limit to how many treasuries the U.S. Congress can create. In the short term there is not, but after the banks either collatoralize or default, there will be a movement to expand the collateral in the banking system to be less reliant on U.S. debt. Over the course of time, when that happens the U.S. will face a devaluing of their currency. In my mind, it will be important for the U.S. to continue to bring supply lines back, align with countries with positive demographics for markets and favorable supply lines to complement the ones that are not efficient or part of national security. This will definitely lower the demand for dollar backed assets, as I think we are moving away from the growth and globalization model to one of global retractions. Slight inflation will be good for the U.S., but if the U.S. tries to "save the world" global credit markets when they are only 25 percent of world GDP, I think they face the prospect of out-of-control inflation as they come out of the black swan event. I think this is the part that people are missing. The U.S. has one chance and needs to do this in a coordinated, well thought out manner.
    • JL
      J L.
      22 December 2020 @ 16:55
      There is no practical limit to US Treasury supply. The only constraint is political will. It is true that, at some point, if the government borrowed too much, and thus issued too large a quantity of USTs, that could lead to inflation via increased spending and a commensurate increase of dollars in the system. But 1) we don't know at what point that would happen 2) we are far from that point with the 10-year yield below 1% 3) if too much UST supply swamps markets, the Fed just buys the excess 4) it makes no sense to fear inflation and a UST shortage simultaneously! This is why the dollar bull case, which is also kind of a "USTs in short supply" case, is goofy. There isn't a real shortage of UST supply, because congress can always create more. And if you are worried about congress creating TOO MUCH treasury supply, that is a situation where the dollar becomes profoundly weaker, not stronger, because the policy reaction function to an oversupply of Treasuries is the Fed taking the excess USTs onto its balance sheet, swapping them out with zero-maturity dollars, and causing the value of the dollar to fall. The monetary this-and-that gets upended by fiscal. Monetary is scissors, fiscal is rock. Fiscal smashes monetary assumptions. What's more they are not separate systems, but part of an intertwined system, a single macro picture. It is the age of fiscal dominance now, and that matters more than plumbing assumptions that apply under regimes not marked by fiscal dominance. The dollar and treasury bulls keep failing to see this or acknowledge this.
  • TR
    Tom R.
    22 December 2020 @ 13:14
    Thanks for a great year of content and discussion. RV one of the best investments I made all year. Happy Holidays All! God bless!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    22 December 2020 @ 12:54
    It's the 4th turning!
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    22 December 2020 @ 06:39
    11:42 It's called "Interest-Rate Apartheid"
  • JS
    Jon S.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:27
    Haley has improved a lot and it is amazing how she is improving it is so nice to hear the intro. Keep it up!
    • KS
      Krishna S.
      22 December 2020 @ 01:52
      Sounds like she's a robot though..
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    22 December 2020 @ 01:32
    Ash and Raoul have very bifurcated views.
  • KF
    Kenneth F.
    22 December 2020 @ 00:13
    Raoul. Get some balls and call TSLA what it is. A big fat ugly engineered bubble of epic proportions.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    21 December 2020 @ 23:40
    What do you make of the Chapman Index? https://chapwoodindex.com/. Inflation, if it were calculated correctly is already here. Thanks!
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    21 December 2020 @ 18:16
    Sorry but can’t even scroll forward in a video. This needs fixing.
  • SS
    Scott S.
    19 December 2020 @ 20:21
    Comparing abs WW2 deaths with abs Covid19 deaths is relevant how? As a % of pop. it's not even in the same universe. And quoting TTM Tesla P/E ratios (I'm sorry) is an intellectually lazy way to look at a company growing at 50-100% a year.
    • MJ
      Matthew J.
      20 December 2020 @ 04:43
      How is Tesla growing at 50-100% per year?
    • MJ
      Matthew J.
      20 December 2020 @ 04:44
      Not revenue? Not sales? Not profit?
    • SS
      Scott S.
      21 December 2020 @ 17:29
      Tesla will produce 500k autos in 2020, 1m in 2021, and 2m in 2022. This looks like 100% y/y growth to me. And wait for the margin expansion if/when FSD is solved.
  • CF
    Christopher F.
    18 December 2020 @ 23:31
    Coinbase is a disaster. Zero customer service.
    • TL
      Tom L.
      19 December 2020 @ 08:34
      Kraken is much better IMO
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      19 December 2020 @ 22:03
      You are lucky. They wouldn't even accept me as a customer. Their system cannot accept an ID from one country and a residential address in another, thereby precluding all of the ex-pats of the world from signing up.
    • SS
      Scott S.
      21 December 2020 @ 17:22
      I signed up for Kraken.com while living and working in the UAE, i.e. an expat. The KYC is painful but possible to overcome.
  • RB
    Richard B.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:51
    All a bit smug and sycophantic. No new thoughts, apart from invest in iran and saudi, umm. Granted crypto great call, but u can't take the Goldman out of the salesman,ie. never talk about your bad calls if u can. ie USD (much ore important than crypto to most people. By way must EM's indices are weighted heavily to banks (which of course bounced first into Vac's and most banks in EM's have huge problems now and are way behind techwise.) Also very little tech. in EM. other then Korea/Taiwan aren't EM, albeit stupid indices included them as such. Most PM's now say there is only one EM and thats China forget the rest! Funny Raoul didn't even mention China in favour of India..unconscious bias ? talking his own book ala Crypto. Fair game. Just cut the utter smug hypocrisy. Crypto is the most heavily concentrated asset class in world, largely populated with x GS macro hedge guys (yes they are a club) who are already super rich and yeah they really want to save the common man from the CB nonsense, from their Cayman super yachts ! Plus ca change
    • TW
      Tim W.
      19 December 2020 @ 02:12
      Perhaps. But Raoul has done more for me than any other GS alum ever will.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      19 December 2020 @ 08:19
      Probably could have got your points across without being a rude prick.
    • SS
      Scott S.
      21 December 2020 @ 17:17
      I, for one, prefer edgy thought-provoking (rude) criticism to sycophantic comments.
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    21 December 2020 @ 14:33
    How do I power share or refer a few friends?
  • JB
    John B.
    21 December 2020 @ 09:38
    Perhaps I had incorrectly interpreted Raoult’ view on equities as very negative, this was based on the excellent piece about the retirement crisis and the hypothesis that baby boomers would dump equities to cover living cost cash requirements , I had considered this a call which maybe pushing it a little
  • LM
    Lorin M.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:46
    Can we stop trumpeting inexpert opinions on the significance of Covid as a medical/actuarial phenomenon, and just stick with its importance from an macroeconomic/investing perspective? I thought RV was a professed agnostic re the former(?).
    • DS
      David S.
      21 December 2020 @ 07:52
      I do not think RV is agnostic to the death, suffering and poverty implications in any country. The economic consequences are important, but the human tragedy is impossible to ignore. DLS
  • JB
    John B.
    20 December 2020 @ 17:35
    Great Call on bitcoin by Raoul , but not good on equities and d minus on the dollar so 1 out 3 , of his big three themes .
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 December 2020 @ 21:53
      I haven't had a call on equities...
    • mw
      michael w.
      21 December 2020 @ 07:00
      So far.
  • AK
    Ado K.
    20 December 2020 @ 22:23
    Raoul is my favorite shitcoiner <3
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      21 December 2020 @ 04:50
      Not all shitcoiners are equal.
  • TF
    Tamara F.
    20 December 2020 @ 20:15
    I love Ash and his filing cabinet. Keep it Ash.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 December 2020 @ 21:47
      Ha. Thanks, Tamara.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    19 December 2020 @ 20:03
    deaths in the civil war were higher....
    • KE
      Kevin E.
      20 December 2020 @ 02:29
      Agree, I pointed that out in a much earlier post. The Covid fear mongering by the press is over the top....but as you see even on RV many are buying into it. FYI, I can say this as I had it in the spring as well as a couple family members ranging from 10 to 59 years old. All recovered just fine, like a bad flu. I can't justify forcing small businesses to close again because of this. A few entrepreneur friends of mine are suffering not only financially but emotionally.....the cost no one in the press is discussing.
    • CG
      Christine G.
      20 December 2020 @ 05:31
      Very cavalier analysis of deaths. What about the hospital systems that are being overrun? The other treatments that are not happening? Or the individuals with the genetic make-up that predisposes them to serious, often life-taking, responses to covid-19? Or the people who have essential jobs and have to play Russian roulette with this thing? Or the communities of color who are hit harder because they often do not have much control over jobs and housing arrangements? And, yes, a nineteenth century civil war (without antibiotics or sterile surgical suites) was worse. So? And many people are talking about the emotional suffering which is real. Suggest they see a therapist.
    • KE
      Kevin E.
      20 December 2020 @ 21:29
      And you are being cavalier CG about metal health...your answer to go see a therapist is not the point. AP reported yesterday, 600 have died in San Francisco from drug overdoses this year, 175 deaths from Covid.
  • MB
    Mathew B.
    20 December 2020 @ 20:21
    What happened to the miners (in the early 1980s UK) is now happening to everyone. Unless you're in tech, digital or crypto.
    • MB
      Mathew B.
      20 December 2020 @ 20:29
      Secondly - what happened to the MONSOON region thesis? Still in play of course - but I guess buried by COVID. I noticed that the MONSOON region broadly maps to the Austronesian migration from 5,000 years back. More on this in the Exchange. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Austronesia_with_hypothetical_greatest_expansion_extent_(Blench,_2009)_01.png Can't recall if this is part of the thesis so stop me if it is.
  • ML
    Mehdi L.
    20 December 2020 @ 20:11
    Tesla is making 24% margins on cars, and will likely go up to 30%
  • OA
    Oliver A.
    19 December 2020 @ 05:18
    Does anyone know the book or the traders who play the Nikkei switch that Raoul mentioned?
    • JH
      Jim H.
      20 December 2020 @ 18:49
      Yes, this!!
  • sp
    spencer p.
    20 December 2020 @ 18:28
    hahaha Prison cell for an accountant!! exactly what ive been thinking.
  • GP
    Gordon P.
    19 December 2020 @ 22:40
    You know Ash and Raoul always talking about and/or quoting Cov19 stat's , yet thats if you believe the numbers -- just yesterday a state doctor shocked at what his state is calling Cov19, deaths, like bodies with gun shot wounds, accidental fall, car accidents, etc etc --- yet if things are so bad why is SD and Ark still doing fine ??? Just saying
    • DS
      David S.
      20 December 2020 @ 17:02
      In COVID deaths per thousand ND, SD and AR are in the top 15 states with the highest death rates. DLS
  • MC
    Marc C.
    20 December 2020 @ 16:19
    Meanwhile Michael Saylor is trying to convince Elon Musk on Twitter to swap the Tesla balance sheet to Bitcoin ...
  • MB
    MATTHEW B.
    19 December 2020 @ 11:54
    Hi Raoul, It's a great interview. Four questions related to it: 1. If you believe there will be no inflation why do you believe the price of gold will go up? 2. What's Reliance's stock symbol in the US or how to invest in it? 3. What are the best London based funds investing in Iran? 4. How to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum? Cheers.
    • MR
      Marco R.
      19 December 2020 @ 14:18
      I know the answer of him for the first question: Because gold does well in deflation too. It appreciated the last 2-3 years e.g. Gold suffers in an economy with steady, sustainable growth.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      19 December 2020 @ 14:26
      Iive done the coin base bit for crypto since 2017 but a few months ago just bought riot and mara on stock exchange as I prefer to manage everything from interactive brokers. Had some gbtc at one point too but the premium on it got too high. Roughly 20 percent plus 2 percent expense.
    • MB
      MATTHEW B.
      20 December 2020 @ 16:07
      Let's Raoul answer it.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    20 December 2020 @ 06:08
    Raoul's expectation of muted inflation this time due to negative demographics refers to demand-driven inflation which is logical but what if it's supply-driven inflation this time? Supply of too much money?
    • mb
      michael b.
      20 December 2020 @ 08:10
      “How would that supply of money enter the system?” is the tricky question. In a debt based monetary system, money is loaned into existence. Loan volume keeps shrinking and banks are tightening. The only thing the Fed can really do legally is buy bonds and credit the bank reserves, which aren’t really “money”. Inflation could happen as many expect, but Steven VanMetre covers the nuances well.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      20 December 2020 @ 15:58
      michael b. Russell Napier also changed his view from deflation to inflation because now the government is about to stand behind the loans, AKA guaranteeing the principle..That's how you are going to increase money in circulation causing inflation.
  • JP
    J P.
    20 December 2020 @ 14:55
    Thank you very much for the education you offer, I've learned a lot. When you move, take the dogs; they add a nice touch.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    18 December 2020 @ 22:03
    Finally yyyyy
    • GV
      Gerard V.
      20 December 2020 @ 14:13
      Here's one thing you didn't mention that Wall Street does not seem to be factoring in... A decoupling with China, which could happen in may ways. But, at this point, I don't see the United States trading relationship with China getting any better. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple may be sitting on tons of liquidity and have access to interest free loans to buy back shares, but what happens when they lose the Chinese markets? What percentage of market cap would be lost with a hollowing out of business in China? There has to be a likelihood that this happens, even if it is not certain. Either the U.S. government could begin to start putting pressure on businesses or the Chinese pull the plug on America businesses. Even in Europe there will be many companies that do global business that would be effected by any sanctions that would be put on China. Germany is desperate for foreign markets, so they have been slow to respond, but it seems like the narrative is beginning to change and the flashlight is slowly being shined on the Uighur concentration camps. Additionally, the currency wars have to be put to the stress test at this current time. As the dollar weakens, countries that rely on exporting like Germany and China will have to start to buy American treasuries to devalue their currency. At this point, that would have to cause a dollar spike and put tremendous pressure capital markets. Long post, but the likelihood of this does not seem to be priced in...
  • JS
    Jon S.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:21
    Raoul, are bonds (ie. TLT) no longer a trade? BTW, big win on the search feature!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 December 2020 @ 00:30
      Im still long via calls.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      19 December 2020 @ 01:11
      I'd like to know the answer to Jon's question too! Thank you.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      19 December 2020 @ 01:13
      Thanks for your reply, Raoul, Happy Christmas to you and yours (wife and dogs and mum).
    • JS
      Jon S.
      19 December 2020 @ 08:47
      We share the same name? Haha
    • JS
      Jon S.
      19 December 2020 @ 19:03
      Yes, Jon S. we do share the same name and our comments are similar!
    • GV
      Gerard V.
      20 December 2020 @ 14:02
      This is my trade right now. May wait a bit.
  • SC
    Shelley C.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:25
    Love "prison cell for accountants"
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      19 December 2020 @ 00:28
      That’s kinda how it feels, TBH. Happily, I get to follow markets in here...
    • GV
      Gerard V.
      20 December 2020 @ 14:01
      Accountants don't go to prison, though. They get fined.
  • SH
    Si H.
    20 December 2020 @ 00:38
    On average 3 million deaths in a typical year in US. Covid is bad, but please put the 300,000 covid deaths into perspective please.
    • BM
      Billy M.
      20 December 2020 @ 13:10
      If all the hospital beds are full... How many more heart attacks and car crashes, etc. would be added to your “3M”. Yes perspective is important. Hence the need to control the Virus.
  • KN
    Krister N.
    20 December 2020 @ 12:45
    Why not use a bot to read the script. Way cheaper.
  • JD
    John D.
    20 December 2020 @ 06:23
    Nice wrap up Haley...Well Done...
  • FH
    Francis H.
    19 December 2020 @ 03:08
    Serious? "If the dems do not win Georgia it will be worse for the economy"? What psychedelics are you consuming on little Cayman? Something stronger than I have here on Kauai! Maybe you have the same ones old is Joe taking. It is arrogant and intellectually void to make such a statement. Economies thrive in free markets (bitcoin). Get Govt. the F! out of the way and our Econ will come roaring back. Aloha
    • MR
      Marco R.
      19 December 2020 @ 14:20
      Francis, why are you a member? You are rude and clearly wrong here. Don’t appreciate your tone.
    • AT
      Andrew T.
      20 December 2020 @ 04:28
      Marco is very correct here, also he explained his reasoning which is reasonably sound in my opinion, take such emotions out of this space please
  • ns
    nakul s.
    19 December 2020 @ 13:55
    hi, Raoul talked about his conversation on India recently......possible to get the link of the same.
    • NF
      N. F.
      20 December 2020 @ 02:21
      He did a doc on India maybe as long as 18 months ago
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    19 December 2020 @ 22:48
    Raoul, Iran or Bitcoin? Or both?
    • AR
      Andrew R.
      20 December 2020 @ 01:18
      Amendment to the above. Do you guys think the rise of bitcoin could accelerate emerging markets like Iran? Essentially bitcoin provides Iran a way of avoiding economic sanctions with trading partners therefore accelerating their growth? I am not asking for a morale perspective just a rationale one!
  • TN
    Tim N.
    20 December 2020 @ 00:50
    Crazy question: Will Tesla hit a valuation of $1T before their market price implodes OR before the next US stimulus package arrives? Random thought bubble that might be a Minsky moment in retrospect :):) Great to finally see you again Raoul.
  • WT
    William T.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:51
    Raoul/Ash, will there be any commentary on the recent cyber attacks. The silence from officials is deafening. This could turn into a massive black swan event that would put the Coronavirus to shame. Reminds me of the early days of Covid. It's a little snowball which could create an avalanche. Would anyone care to comment?
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      19 December 2020 @ 23:54
      I agree. The hacks are a big deal; even more so if a foreign actor is found to be involved. Combine that with the fact that DNI Ratcliffe is talking of foreign interference in the election; the Biden transition team is blocked from Pentagon/MI/NSA briefings and Trump is talking about "doing this the hard way". Add into that cocktail the recent assassination of Iran's nuclear chief and i would argue that there is significant potential for political risk/ a black swan event out there, none of which is currently priced in by the markets. The thing about trouble is that it generally comes when you are least looking for it.
  • AK
    Alexander K.
    19 December 2020 @ 22:29
    Always look fwd to the Friday RVDB. Well done guys and thanks for everything you've done w mind blowing content in 2020. Hope you have a very Merrry Christmas. All the best Alex K
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    19 December 2020 @ 18:35
    I'm always fascinated by your perspective! I have to disagree about Tesla though. The company is so misunderstood. It's business model is impregnable and technology lead is insurmountable. It has the auto industry, oil industry, energy industry, and transportation industry in checkmate and they don't even know it yet.
    • AR
      Andrew R.
      19 December 2020 @ 22:05
      I love Tesla. However, I think your point is the very thing that makes macro guys nervous. Jeff Booth has a great podcast on why disrupting too many industries more often than not works against you. I think it’s we study billionaires with Preston Pshy if you are interested. That being said if anyone could pull it off I would bet it was old mate Elon.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    19 December 2020 @ 16:21
    The controversy regarding Coinbase and some employees is a shakedown. They should be applauded for resisting it.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      19 December 2020 @ 20:39
      Exactly. It was a few woke SJW crybabies trying to make a kerfuffle about nothing.
  • SS
    Scott S.
    19 December 2020 @ 20:26
    For an interesting chart, look at TTM TSLA priced in BTC. Massive head and shoulders top. Will TSLA collapse, BTC rally, or a combination?
  • TM
    The M.
    19 December 2020 @ 19:56
    Great video. So I guess it's time for me to do a video.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    19 December 2020 @ 17:23
    Great stuff! Keep up the great work RV crew!!
  • SW
    Sarah W.
    19 December 2020 @ 12:03
    Watching on the iPhone is proving somewhat problematic. I can’t scroll the video/buffer, it just continues to stream from the start. Might need your tech department to look at it!
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      19 December 2020 @ 17:16
      Yes lately I have experienced the same! I wonder what’s changed; it used to work
  • RM
    Russell M.
    19 December 2020 @ 16:56
    Excellent as usual!
  • FG
    Frode G.
    19 December 2020 @ 09:23
    Always quality contents here, thank you guys!
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    19 December 2020 @ 07:05
    Raoul, it would be awesome if you could do this every Friday. This provides so much value. And frankly, you do your best work on video, not Twitter. Thanks for the great recap. Really excellent.
  • FI
    FOTIS I.
    19 December 2020 @ 06:42
    I noticed recently that the subtitles on all videos do not work when watching them via mobile phone (web browser or the RealVision app). Can you please check it out? Thanks
  • EN
    Elizabeth N.
    19 December 2020 @ 06:27
    Elon crossed many lines... habitually. He’s a habitual line-stepper.
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    19 December 2020 @ 06:21
    Thats really good Conversation can we have a transcript ???
  • RN
    Richard N.
    19 December 2020 @ 06:11
    Happy Holidays, Gents! Thanks for all that you do.
  • DS
    David S.
    19 December 2020 @ 05:56
    Tesla's addition to the S&P may be a problem with its added volatility and large market cap - % of total of the S&P. With other great car companies producing and exporting electric cars, the shorts may have their day. This could have an effect on passively investing in the S&P. This is not a slight on Tesla, but a reality check. DLS
  • RL
    Ryan L.
    19 December 2020 @ 04:15
    Open up the next capital raise so the rest of us can invest!
  • LB
    Lenska B.
    19 December 2020 @ 04:00
    A big fan of Realvision and the no hype content. My highlight of 2020. Don't let me down in 2021 :)
  • DG
    David G.
    19 December 2020 @ 03:29
    Guess who's back, back again? Raoul's back, tell a friend! Guess who's back! Guess who's back! Guess who's back! Guess who's back! Guess who's back! Guess who's back! They've been asking for you Jefe!
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    19 December 2020 @ 03:27
    Real Vision is KILLING IT.
  • JL
    J L.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:47
    Yahoo! was added to the S&P 500 in December 1999, and rose 64% in the five trading days beforehand.
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:09
    Thanks Ash and Raoul! Merry Christmas!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      19 December 2020 @ 01:34
      Thanks, Binyam. It's sure looking Christmasy here in NYC...
  • DS
    David S.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:32
    IMO any IMF basket of money will fail. It will start life with a hedge fund target with six degrees of freedom. The FX market will be the arbiter of price. For me this is a positive outcome. Politicians will deal with the consequences of the biggest financial market betting their own money. DLS
  • KP
    Kaushal P.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:19
    Billy Ray Cabinets! I missed out on a lot of alpha not believing that liquidity trumps reality this year (Sold Tesla at 900 presplit, aapl at 300 etc) but I think the financial education I received largely thanks to RV will more than make up for it in my investment career. Thanks for everything Raoul and RV team!
  • AF
    Alan F.
    19 December 2020 @ 01:05
    Outstanding episode! Great actionable take aways regarding the EM expansion as a result of forthcoming dollar weakness.
  • IH
    Ian H.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:56
    Congrats on the Podcast Ash. Psyched!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      19 December 2020 @ 00:58
      Thanks, Ian. It was a tremendous group effort. We’re all looking forward to it.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:33
    I for one didn't hear about Coinbase's past management issues. Perhaps I'll will invest the money instead in Tesla which has no past management issues...
  • BA
    Bob A.
    19 December 2020 @ 00:19
    Raoul, welcome back to the Daily Briefing. Wishing you and your RV staff happy holidays and we all look forward to a great 2021.
  • BC
    Bill C.
    18 December 2020 @ 23:19
    Love the filing cabinets!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      18 December 2020 @ 23:58
      Ha. Thanks. I wonder if I’ll be able to get them out of the shot in the new apartment.
  • JC
    John C.
    18 December 2020 @ 23:16
    Love the filing cabinet!!!