What about Hashgraph? Isn't it superior to all that blockchain stuff?

I have posted this comment on the Daily Briefing with Roger as a guest. This is why I think Raoul Pal is wrong about the stock market: 1. " Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve. Whatever I do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity, that most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets." - Sanely Druckenmiller 2. You can’t make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you’re betting against the consensus, there’s a significant probability you’re going to be wrong, so you have to be humble." Ray Dalio. Raoul has been crying wolf about the stock market since April and every time he has been proven wrong. Stock markets don't need to be tethered to economic reality. Just look at Zimbabwe's and Venezuela's stock markets. If you get a deflationary pocket which is a possibility watch the FED come real fast and hard and provide dollars to whomever needs dollars. The FED has made it clear in March it will not allow risk assets to fall down. And who wants to bet against an entity that can print money ad infinitum.

What's Raoul's take on TLT March options? Are these options going to be worthless ?

Raoul is NOT getting 100 million BTC wallet anywhere equal to 100 million ETH wallets. There is no cap on the ETH, there are almost 26k new ETH produced every day.

Up until recently, focusing on the reaction functions of fiscal and monetary authorities, as well as general crowd behaviour, made sense. Still it's good to keep an eye on the illness data (attribution to covid, deaths vs 5y avg, etc.) and gov policies that are restrictive of individual freedom and harmful to the economy. Then discuss how much of it is justifiable. As things gradually get out of proportions, with big tech censorship and some scientists asked to withdraw their reading of the data, one would expect RV to provide a breadth of fact-based alternative views to the ubiquitous consensus. The crowd is mad, the RV community is more reasoned and diverse, let's use that. Kyle Bass on China, Central Banking vs Crypto, Mike Pettis' Class Warfare, ... RV is about finance and political economy. Well the politics are seriously hurting the economy, how much of that is justified is a very valid question. Whilst we're all happy to make money from the comfort of our homes, restriction to freedoms of movement or of speech are too important to just let go in silence while we trade.

Excellent insight on asset allocation! Thanks Raoul.

Raoul is my favorite shitcoiner <3

So funny that people come here to just disagree with Roaul opinions... **News flash** no one cares what you think!

I am already short S&P - I know too early but this is also very news driven event - Imagine if news comes a new mutation is immune to current vaccines.

"What happened? I thought Raoul was all in with crypto for the foreseeable future but now he is kind of saying he sees getting out at least partially in about a year or am I hearing him wrong? Before he was saying as Michael Saylor is saying that all the liquidity was going to be soaked up by bitcoin and it was not speculative but a massive storage of value, now he sounds like he is singing a different tune."

Great content. I’m one of those crazy gold bugs with heavy exposure in gold miners and silver hedged with puts in IWM, EEM, and calls in TLT. That Feb-March turning point feels right to me as well. I got into crypto a few months back, but after a 2.5x rise, I discovered I don’t have the stomach for risk to be a hod’ler and started to sell a bit. It just doesn’t sit well with me that a small number of bitcoin whales are holding 92% of the coins and they can choose any time to start a distribution cycle, even though I don’t expect that to happen until Bitcoin is well north of $100k. My current strategy is to lock my Bitcoin value to $20k +/- 3k dollars, selling down as it rises above that threshold and buying back when it dips below. I dumped the last of my Ether when it breached $1200, but I’m now thinking I should buy back in with the same strategy fixed at $6k +/- 1k dollars. Anyway, I thought I’d throw the idea out there as a middle way to ride the volatility without hodl’ing or giving up. Risk management strategies like this won’t make you rich, but they’ll keep you rich when you get there.

I appreciate Raoul's chart analog, but those very rarely work out. I can remember these kind of analog predictions post 2008-2010 on the SPX and they didn't play out either.

Three words: Policy Reaction Function. To elaborate, I don't understand why poor job growth and new Covid lockdowns have to be bearish. The pain distributed by Covid is asymmetric, impacting the lower half of the economy more than the top half. At the same time, the embedded potential in the policy reaction function actually suggests that more pain could wind up being net bullish. This is the "killing the fly with a sledgehammer" effect, or maybe killing the fly with a neutron bomb. The bigger the hurt, the bigger the MMT-style rescue actions, and the only way to make sure the rescue actions are sufficient is to supersize them.. On jobs, Raoul said: "The reflation idea in some respects is nonsense because those jobs are not coming back fast..." Which jobs are we talking about though? CNBC on the Jan. 8 jobs report: "Hospitality accounted for most of the job losses, as bars and restaurants took a particularly hard hit…" "Job gains came in professional and business services, retail and a handful of other industries." So job losses continue to be concentrated in the service sector, and the lower half of the economy, and physical presence type industries where people have to show up and serve customers in the flesh. Whereas job GAINS are actually occuring in the top half of the economy, where knowledge work is concentrated and where more jobs are virtual or suited to WFH (work from home). This says to me the upper half of the economy, or at least the upper third, remains robust. That means discretionary income and spending habits and 401K flows among the top third of households remains robusts. So picture this scenario: — The Biden administration administers new lockdowns as you say — The service sector and lower half of the economy are even harder hit — The top 30% of the economy waltzes through (again) via WFH — Added pain in the service sector leads to sounding a policy alarm — Janet Yellen and Jay Powell do the Batman-Robin duo thing — Big new rounds of fiscal AND creative monetary go to help the labor economy — These funds then wash into the top half of the economy, which don't need them — The help is then topped via congress doing fiscal III — Yellen also figures out how to rescue blue state budgets through a back door — Fed and Treasury team up to lend huge sums to municipalities at near-zero interest — A loan at near-zero interest on long enough payback terms is like giving away cash — Boom, ersatz helicopter drop for the states that congress doesn't have to authorize Broader point: There is a bullish argument embedded in service sector pain and Covid lockdown forecasts because of the policy reaction function. The more that the lower half of the economy gets hurt by Covid, the more that Powell and Yellen will be spurred to take heroic and creative monetary measures. And every time I hear you talking about low-income workers struggling as their jobs get displaced, I see Treasury Secretary Yellen (the labor economist with a heart of gold) unleashing another fiscal kraken. The equation is something like Covid Pain N triggers Policy Response NX which is some multiple of N. The multiple means the upper half of the economy — where Wall Street focuses anyway — is more juiced than before. And then, too, you've got excellent odds for a multi-trillion infrastructure package with Buttigieg in at transportation and Dems holding the senate gavel. This is essentially another form of public works stimulus. And so, on balance, I don't understand why you guys are so skeptical of the reflation thesis. It keeps coming back to fiscal and the policy reaction function, coupled with the fact that Covid hurts the labor half of the economy far more than the white collar / knowledge worker half. I would argue this is why bond yields shot higher this week. People aren't necessarily shorting bonds just because traders are high on the reflation trade. This week they made a Bayesian adjustment for what it means to see Dems take the senate and Biden to accrue greater political power (as Trump's mojo implodes). Those things imply a greater probability of stimulative type actions gaining traction, as the Biden admin finds it easier to pull a few moderate Republican votes (which they may not even need). I would also argue the thesis I'm describing has already been in effect for a while now. The K-Shaped Recovery on steroids explains the current state of the market — top half doing fine, plenty of capital to flow into stocks, fiscal help juicing asset prices — and in a weird twist, more Covid pain could help the market even more, because the policy reaction function stimulates the top half more than the bottom half. Then, too, treasury bonds aren't just trending down now — they really fell through the floor the past few days. Is that really just a bunch of traders pressing a reflation bet? What if it's something much bigger (transition to a whole new fiscal regime) and traders are just the sparrow on the hippo's back? Also, this from Raoul at 19:00, whoa: "I've talked about this ad nauseam, but the amount of fiscal stimulus that's still to come is going to make your hair turn on fire. I mean, there's no way you can deal with this without massive fiscal stimulus. And like it or not, that's what they're going to do." Well okay then! If all that fiscal is coming (agree!), THAT is a better explanation for why bonds are going to hell right now. And if you differentiate between the bottom half of the economy and the top half, you should see why fiscal uber alles drives the reflation trade (because the top half doesn't need it but they get it anyway). Aaaand if you have the view that huge fiscal is coming, that ALSO helps explain the USD downtrend, because Europe and Japan are in austerity by comparison can't keep up with how aggressively easy the US is easing (even as global reserve managers rebalance away from dollars). Why are you guys bearish on reflation again?! ;-)

Raoul needs to me more precise and logical on his view on the big variables, USD, rates and Oil. Which he has got very wrong. Sticking with his solvency and recession theme, despite admitting massive FISCAL response?. Bitcoin yes congrats

Asset Allocation. That is a white board video I would like to see. All I have ever read was Large Cap, Small Cap, Growth, Value, yada yada. Liquidity and the rest that Raoul brought up is something I would like to understand more.

Good update. Thanks for the video. It would be great sometimes if Ash would be more proactive in providing potential counter views to Raoul. Usually they are both in agreement and different views instead of the two being in consensus would make for interesting viewing.

There was so much to unpack in this episode - The review will consist of pen / paper / coffee and of course google to look up data that I'm unclear about - Bravo RV team

What does Raoul think of the real estate market?

Emerging Markets I understand Raoul's approach to invest in the most liquid instrument first (eg. EEM) and then diversify into individual countries or frontier markets to get more alpha. But on the other hand, I like Jay Pelosky’s contrarian approach. He said in today’s marketplace it’s not worth to buy straight into EEM, but better go for the internet and ecommerce space with EMQQ. I can fully agree, as I have worked as a digital director in Shanghai and have invested early on in EMQQ (and KWEB for China) as well as in Asian tech stocks. Having a look at the net asset value EEM is 20x times more liquid, but EMQQ has outperformed by far (7x since 2014). Probably EMQQ is more riskier having twice as much exposure to China, but luckily not in the areas which are exposed to the US-China tech war. @Ash, I would appreciate if RV could follow up with further interviews on emerging markets in the coming months .Why not bringing different people with different opinions on the table? Fyi: Pelosky at EMQQ webinar (second part) https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/17122/453316?utm_campaign=channel-feed&utm_source=brighttalk-portal&utm_medium=web

Hi Raoul and Ash, big crypto supporter here but what do you think of Da Hongfei's (NEO founder) piece here on bitcoin perhaps being forced to change to remain relevant in the future https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-butterfly-effect-why-defi-will-force-btc-to-break-its-21m-supply-ceiling

I would love to other macro people express themselves in very simple and understandable way for beginners (like me) as @Raoul. Thanks!

@Raoul, are you effectively saying we have a tactical dollar bounce within a continued downturn? if you are or will be soon bullish on emerging markets then usually that coincides / caused by a weaker dollar.

Cardano!!!! He said it here.

Any suggestions and where to begin learning the asset allocation piece? Books? Courses?

Hi Raoul, What is your split for BTC/ETC? 80/20?

Great intro, Jack

10/10 😀

10/10 😀

Why does labor matter in the short term if they're just going to pay people directly? We're also discounting entirely the vaccine which is ramping up at a solid clip (that's a chart to really show since the two scary ones directly flow from it). 90% of the deaths are in a certain demographic...maybe 10-15% of the population. We should see an effect by end of Jan or...we're in much deeper trouble. The natural flu has two peaks (mid-late Dec which matches) and then again in March. To some extent, we're following that pattern and there's likely some overlap covid (from testing). After March with $trillions likely (per Biden's mouth 2 days ago)...how do we not have explosive growth followed by a hangover later. Would love to hear thougths on these. Is there a good existing comparison video of bitcoin/etherium?

It is easy to surmise we are in extraordinary times - a recession put on warp drive by the pandemic. The only good news for me is the rollout of the vaccine. The countries that are able to keep the core economy in place and its citizen from bankruptcy will be able to have a better start. The Asian nations, on average, handled the balance better by force and/or compliant citizens. There economies, however, will not have all the Western consumers buying their products now with reduced wealth. Western economies will have all their problems before COVID still in place. Because the US may be better able to provide solvency to the core until COVID is mitigated, I feel ithe US will come out first. It will not be pretty, but it may be less ugly than the rest. Do not over bet on your reflation trades. Watch closely. Fiat currencies are a relative bet. DLS

Just joined and this is one of the first videos I’ve watched. Enjoyable, insightful and engaging. Financial commentary that’s accessible and fun. 👍

Fabulous! Thank you, RV.

Love, Ash...but Raoul's impression of Ash was hilarious!

how many chairs does a person need??

Absolutely love that Raoul grin, and when you pair it with all that knowledge.. what a man. Paired up with Spock, makes for a great interview. :) Very glad to hear that you are planning to dive into Layer 2 solution. Please check out nahmii.io, which is an Ethereum Layer 2 protocol that has been live for several years and has started to get industrial adoption. The Founder, Jacobo, is a fantastic guy and would be a fantastic guest on Real Vision.

Mr. Musk is another example of a cult of personality. He is a visionary. It will be difficult to grow into the market value of Tesla. DLS

I see some talking of the book here - Raoul has a long thesis on the dollar, which he's admitted is plastering him right now. I've been following it too, and beyond some counter-trend rallies, it still looks like hot garbage. Given the incoming tsunami of printing that is about to take place, in the order of a Trillion or more, I wouldn't want to be long the Dollar either. Also, Raoul loves ETH, yet his allocation is 80/20 BTC/ETH - hedging, eh? From how he talks about it here and on Twitter you'd think he was all-in. Just funny to me.

I'm gonna throw the proverbial "don't fight the Fed" at you. If it buoyed up markets then. It'll do so now as well. Wallstreet and mainstreet have been detached long ago.. Raoul do you really think that they'll let markets crash when he first steps in? Maybe later down the road but atleast not in Q1.

10/10!

What Raoul is saying makes sense. i am subscribing because I am most interested in what Raoul has to say.

when two central bankers state implicitly that the current financial markets are not bubbly and valuations basically don‘t matter, then one knows how detached these markets have become from everything which is aking to responsible standards and acting. instead of uniting people, it will polarize and divide further. Shame on modern society and politicians being totally reluctant to hold them responsible, shame on society to hold their politicians responsible for spurring this divide. Oh I am sorry, the central bankers are providing the gravy train for these ‚important‘ people so theirs a vital function, we can’t question or stop their folly since it may reduce my gravy. instant gratification instead of responsible mid-to-longterm policy application. When did they forget the saying that when your neighbour is doing fine, you are doing fine.

Ash Live long and prosper...;)

I would like a revised view with President Elect Biden on new spending bill news coming this week!

Can Raoul talk about the economic model of BTC when all the coins are disbursed? Will not rewarding miners with BTC be enough to keep BTC functioning acceptable clip?

Thanks so much Raoul. A little more relevance. I started this chart in March 2013. So market forced on queue since (o;

The best yet IMO. Thanks guys.

Very well done guys. I agree with Raoul's and Roger's take on the reflation narrative, it's far more credible and indeed more probable than the opposite view that, without much analysis, maintains that QE, government stimulus and M2 growth (as well as the price of a loaf of bread at the supermarket) must equal inflation. I believe that economic conditions and policies still favour deflation in the short to medium term.

Great video. While I understand RVDB is a daily show, I always find the 'let's take a step back' synopses Raoul provides on a Friday to be particularly insightful.

This is was your best daily briefing ever. Thank you Raoul. I would like to take this opportunity to wish you happy new year! Greetings.

Wow... You guys all on fire today. One of my fav RVDB segments. Thanks for the deep dive into the demographics yet again. Always a great reminder.

@raoul, historically when the Fed. Gov. in the USA wanted to "coerce" the states' behavior the Gov will tie the Federal cash to the State adoption of desired rules see 21 year old drinking age and 18 year old smoking age across the US. See - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Minimum_Drinking_Age_Act

All you are going to get is pullback in reflation trade before we start the next leg higher. So, dollar corrects higher before it goes down! And oh yeh, the bunds sell off is going to be fantastic! Bitcoin will follow gold soon.

"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few." -Ash Bennington

Superb video and quite comforting in these crazy times.

In my average Joe world there is no worry of losing and everyone is protected by diversification. People trade hours for dollars and count the days to their pension payout. Thank you for providing content that helps me understand the real financial risks we must navigate.

Live long and prosper Ash!

Hi - I'd really appreciate if you could provide a bit more coverage on gold and sIlver and producers of both. I know Crypto is the shiny new objects, but imagine we are all going to be flocking to gold for safe heaven sooner or later as we get further into the year.... Jesper

Real yields rising = gold down. Thats been history. Just like risk assets and Bitcoin

This is great, thank you guys. Ash, don't lose your 'Spock-ness', it's why we love you.

“The overwhelming consensus among leading economists left, right and center is that in order to keep the economy from collapsing this year, getting much, much worse, we should be investing significant amounts of money right now.” -Biden

I'm going to raise my stop losses this weekend to a small bit below market price for my reflation trades. Take some profits. Hopefully, the markets don't open down 10% on Monday. A freely available newsletter I follow has pounded on "profit taking" twice in the last week. I'll try to not be a sheep (baa baa) this time cycle. baa baa

Raoul, Ash, I suggest looking into $LUNA (if you haven't already) as you go further out in the risk curve in the wild west of the crypto landscape.

I think the commodity run is also partly based ironically around ESG. Massive copper, battery related metals and rare earths required for electrification of everything, new green deal, EVs, etc.

Raoul has a flight to catch?!? You mean that he will be somewhere else than in front of his pool table? Bon voyage and have a safe trip. Hope to see you again real soon.

A single episode like this can be worth an entire year’s subscription.

Here is something I have not heard anyone discuss so RV, run with it: How many graduates from Uni are we graduating? The foreign students that come to the US, Britain etc to pursue advanced degrees are not coming. So it seems to me we have a looming deficit in intellectually skilled graduates. I am not concerned about the soft degrees. I am concerned about what I call "the degrees that can't be fudged." That is: Engineering, Sciences, Maths, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Finance, Actuarial Studies, Medicine etc. A deficit in those areas will cause an inflationary cost push it would seem.

Only a tiny % of population is affected by cv directly. Overwhelming unemployed are in hospitality and tourism industry. There are not core workers.

Thank you Raoul for introducing me to the simple, yet often ignored, concept of asset allocation; when to accumulate risk and when to divest risk. Thanks for your honesty and sharing your vision.

Awesome. Great content Raoul.

Why there a divergence between ETH and ETHE ?

Bravo.

My compliments to RV team for this daily briefing and Mike Green Panda piece today. Really well done.

this was an amazing vid. great work.

That was fantastic! Really dense video, lot of information to process. Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!

i just died laughing when i heard the "spock" comment. hahaha. love it guys

OMG - the Spock comment really made me laugh out loud...great update!

I cannot thank Real Vision and Raoul enough for the value they are bringing into peoples life. This is for sure the best value investment of this decade