Taking Things in Stride: Fiscal Stimulus, COVID-19, and Inflation Expectations

Published on
December 22nd, 2020
24 minutes

Taking Things in Stride: Fiscal Stimulus, COVID-19, and Inflation Expectations

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: December 22nd, 2020 • Duration: 24 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss the new fiscal package from Congress, the macro signals Tony has his eye on, and his outlook for the new year. Tony discusses how the spending package is insufficient, especially for American families, and describes the markets’ reaction as slightly “sell the fact” as made evident by the DXY’s modest but noticeable bounce. After Ash reviews some of the current data for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S., Tony says that markets are still looking past this information and are more focused on the reopening. He also describes the relationship of the dollar and equities as it relates to the Fed’s modus operandi to create inflation with a weaker dollar. Finally, he shares the new opportunity that he sees emerging for U.S. financials, what he’s looking out for in the new year, and why he’s holding onto more dry powder during this holiday season. In the intro, editor Jack Farley covers Ripple's SEC investigation, U.S. bankruptcies, as well as market flow data.



  • mf
    massimo f.
    29 December 2020 @ 02:43
    These efficient market guys are really interesting. They have absolute (near religious) faith in market signals to the point where they do no further analysis to backup their views, I certainly couldn’t have such conviction.
  • OW
    Oliver W.
    24 December 2020 @ 11:50
    Tony thx vor your Input in 2020. one of the best speakers in Realvision
  • TO
    Taryn O.
    23 December 2020 @ 23:37
    Ash is just so excellent: informed; skilled interviewer; creative and eloquent communicator! Great content.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    23 December 2020 @ 20:48
    Tony, you and I have much different opinions on the meaning of the word 'authoritarian'.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    22 December 2020 @ 23:48
    Man, does Tony have a great understanding of reality...IMHO.
    • SS
      Scott S.
      23 December 2020 @ 16:58
      He's one of my favorite Daily Briefing guests.
  • CR
    Carlos R.
    23 December 2020 @ 16:17
    One of my favourite guests. Thank you!
  • DS
    David S.
    23 December 2020 @ 00:57
    Part of the current surge in hospitalizations seems to me to be the effects of Thanksgiving gatherings. We will see the same effect after year-end holidays in late January 2021 regardless of government begging for restraint. The market will continue to look past all the hospitalizations. COVID deaths will help fund markets through inheritances. COVID Times will end, but it will be a long, messy ending in the western countries. It will be a self-imposed gleaning of the herd. Lemmings leaping over the cliffs. The economy will go on. Insolvencies will increase. A fire-hose of funds will continue to go into the market. Even with the decline in the $US, gold may continue to be stable as Bitcoin arbitrage from gold continues. The asset rich investor will not care as the the K shaped recovery continues. Practice safe COVID so you will be here next December to enjoy your successes. This seems dark, but it is an easy forecast. Happy New Year! DLS
    • MT
      Mike T.
      23 December 2020 @ 10:08
      sincerely David, I often only check out the comments just to see your posts. Always valued, thxs.
    • DS
      David S.
      23 December 2020 @ 16:14
      Mike T. - I wish it were brighter on the COVID front. We could have done better. DLS
  • WC
    WJ C.
    23 December 2020 @ 11:23
    Why does Tony say mutation of the virus is barely believable? Science is science whether he believes it or not.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      23 December 2020 @ 15:23
      I would go a step further, it would appear, same with many others also, TG wont take the time to educate himself therefore cannot comprehend and so unable to believe or trust
  • AT
    Alun T.
    23 December 2020 @ 13:45
    TG Tuesdays always quality. More in 2021 please!
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    23 December 2020 @ 13:42
    Here is my take of this I think Tony is completely off he totally reminds of guys I worked with in NY ! he is way off on the mutation - please get a dif Trader on this !!! I think it give perspective !!!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    23 December 2020 @ 01:13
    Tony nailed it with where some of the stimulus money are going. If I was US citizen I would have been out rioting.
    • AK
      Arthur K.
      23 December 2020 @ 13:28
      Stock market is 21st century soma for the people.
  • GH
    Guy H.
    23 December 2020 @ 12:11
    TG give us 2-4 good mostly apolitical reads of the tape, then seems to flop back into truther lalaland. Still worth sorting through the chaff for the wheat but would be nice if it was mostly wheat - so to speak.
  • JF
    John F.
    22 December 2020 @ 23:45
    Tony G excellent as always. You continue to deliver useful and insightful analysis. It's in complete contrast to the Covid hospitalisations type analysis which appears on the Daily Briefing ad infinitum now and which has served no purpose in helping RV subscribers understand the market, particularly over the last few months.
    • ST
      Sam T.
      23 December 2020 @ 00:14
      Why would hospitalizations not matter? I know people in the hospital and it has shifted my behavior and spending habits in the past few months. Behavioral changes affects the economy which affects markets. Also, spending resources to keep people in hospitals from dying instead of using those resources towards productive activities is a drag on the economy. RV is not the problem.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      23 December 2020 @ 01:29
      It is obvious you have not been directly impacted, nor has anyone you know, been directly impacted by either the human or economic catastrophe that is COVID. Congratulations on your good fortune for having avoided any and all fallout! May you be so lucky over the next 12-month period.
    • DS
      David S.
      23 December 2020 @ 08:44
      The stock market is dissociated from the real economy. The market may be also looking past COVID Times, or stock investors really do not care about COVID. They believe the government will always save them regardless. DLS
  • LH
    Lin H.
    23 December 2020 @ 08:33
    I don't really care if you are democrats or republicans - but mixing personal political views in the middle of financial analysis always looks bad on you and devalues your opinions.
  • JA
    John A.
    22 December 2020 @ 23:47
    Tony continues to let his political view slip into his analysis. But ignoring that, he is still the most honest bull out there about the problems ahead and someone I use as a gauge to see if the bull case is getting cold feet right now.
    • SG
      Steve G.
      23 December 2020 @ 00:47
      It's funny people only complain about political views when it's opposite to their own.
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      23 December 2020 @ 06:10
      God forbid someone has an openly conservative bent on Wall Street
  • MS
    Mark S.
    23 December 2020 @ 04:42
    I don’t think Tony understands the definition of authoritarian
  • TC
    Tim C.
    23 December 2020 @ 03:45
    The bill passed in congress was a combined stimulus and appropriations bill. Tony is showing either how biased or how ignorant he is... I'm wondering how all the RHers with exercise on expiration are feeling on $TSLA. The rotation trade is looking like chasing the next shiny object... Me - I just find something where I can clip coupons...
  • CC
    Charlie C.
    23 December 2020 @ 03:33
    Jack’s quick read of what’s in 5,000 pages is very helpful and appreciated :)
  • WT
    William T.
    22 December 2020 @ 23:57
    Does anyone know what happened to those big cyber attacks reported briefly last week, did they go away all by themselves?
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      23 December 2020 @ 01:23
      timing is not right to blame Putin for something.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      23 December 2020 @ 01:27
      George Friedman has an article on this that is freely available to the public. The article provides useful perspectives on the matter.
    • DJ
      Daniel J.
      23 December 2020 @ 03:33
      George Friedman article mentioned by Phillip B.: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-intelligence-dilemma/
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    23 December 2020 @ 01:27
    Another great session with Mr. TG Tuesday himself. This time on a Wednesday. Here’s to a wonderful holiday break gentlemen. Happy holidays to you and yours. Cheers.
    • XM
      Xavier M.
      23 December 2020 @ 03:07
      Goodness me. Looks like I've gotten my days mixed up. In any case, happy holidays!
  • AA
    Aaron A.
    23 December 2020 @ 02:43
    Cities are dead. CRE is dead. Our politicians are brain dead to reality and tone deaf to the middle class. Most of the stimulus won’t make it to those who need it. PPP will primarily go to business owners, not workers. This does nothing for economic production.
  • jG
    james G.
    23 December 2020 @ 00:16
    Hi Tony, I'm pissed too .....