Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise

Published on
December 10th, 2020
38 minutes

A Corporate Executive’s Market: Unprofitable IPOs and Dilutive Offerings

Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ed Harrison, and Thomas Thornton

Published on: December 10th, 2020 • Duration: 38 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMark indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMark indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public.



  • JF
    Jess F.
    11 December 2020 @ 21:27
    Tommy obviously has no expectation that SCOTUS might spring a surprise. Mr Biden is still not even the Preident elect. Not that I am a Trump fan but for the sake of the long term future of the good old USA, Scotus needs to put an end to all the fraud that has turned your country into a banana rebublic
    • JL
      J L.
      13 December 2020 @ 06:34
      SCOTUS rejected the so-called "big one" with a 9-0 rejection. The Trump campaign lawsuit track record is now something like 50+ losses versus a single win, where the lone win impacted fewer than 100 votes against a margin of victory in the tens of thousands. The only fraud turning America into a banana republic is in the fever dreams of Trump supporters who can't mentally process the fact he lost, and lost by a historic margin at that.
  • DS
    David S.
    12 December 2020 @ 19:43
    So vaccines that normally take 18-24 months for safety and efficacy are now safe after 2 months?????!!!!!
    • SJ
      Sy J.
      13 December 2020 @ 01:19
      We are essentially testing the vaccine on first responders. How ludicrous.
    • JL
      J L.
      13 December 2020 @ 06:31
      No, not at all. That is what Phase 3 clinical trials are for, in which double-blind tests are carried out with tens of thousands of voluntary participants. The actual vaccines were formulated many months ago -- getting through the Phase 3 trials to confirm their accuracy with scientific rigor was the thing that took time.
  • PB
    12 December 2020 @ 06:02
    These are really good segments. Please keep them coming. Great to have the no BS commentary.
    • SJ
      Sy J.
      13 December 2020 @ 01:21
      I think the whole segment was b.s. Thorton is all hat and no cattle.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    12 December 2020 @ 00:17
    Love Tommy's comments. I understand the Demark indicator but it seems like inside baseball...lol. Still, as others have noted, no chest thumping, careful, sincere comments with a bit of humor thrown in. I hope he continues to come back.
    • JJ
      Jay J.
      12 December 2020 @ 20:27
      if you understood the Demark tools they wouldn't seem like "inside baseball" or maybe you don't understand that term either, it'd be better applied to the eurodollar market or inner workings of the banking system. you have to put in work and spend time, if not there's always 70 and 30 thresholds of the rsi
    • MC
      Michael C.
      13 December 2020 @ 00:19
      Jay Thank you for your insightful comments...all bow.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    12 December 2020 @ 12:13
    Not a single chart.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    11 December 2020 @ 05:05
    Gold follows real yields.. he's buying into a trap
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      12 December 2020 @ 06:01
      I can't imagine anyone being short gold here or anywhere into the foreseeable future. "Foreseeable future" being, like, what, maybe the next five years? Re the correlation to "real" yields, this is going to become a relic of the past. It seems so reflexive, so algo-driven lately, doesn't it? Times are changing and so many correlations we take for granted my change as well. We'll see. The existing order is breaking down. The things we took for granted are changing. Let's check back in months, and maybe next year, and see where gold and the trap is.
  • RB
    Roger B.
    11 December 2020 @ 00:25
    Mentioning the Mayans was enough for me to stop watching.
    • mw
      michael w.
      11 December 2020 @ 00:59
      Well it was the end of the video.
    • NE
      Nathan E.
      11 December 2020 @ 05:01
      When he said the Mayans my mind immediately went to Sons of Anarchy.
    • AS
      Atul S.
      11 December 2020 @ 19:36
      He did say they had a terrible record.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    11 December 2020 @ 08:01
    I enjoy Ed, but I am missing Roger. I also miss seeing Raoul every Friday.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      11 December 2020 @ 17:52
      100% Bob. Thursday's have been slotted for Roger and Fridays for Raoul. But other commitments have kept them out of the line-up. It's great for RV that they're so busy but I would also love to have them back in those time slots too. Hopefully next week.
  • AK
    Andy K.
    11 December 2020 @ 15:33
    I always love guys like Tommy and TG. They explain their approach on understanding what’s happening right now with no BS. They tell people what they are doing and give less seasoned investors like me a solid direction to watch/go. I think you should ask all guests - where are you putting your fresh money today or seeing smart money flow. Great interview.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    11 December 2020 @ 14:59
    Let the bubble deflate a bit so it can be pumped up some more? Welcome to 2020.
  • jm
    james m.
    11 December 2020 @ 14:55
    what is the spelling of the ex-fidelity person you mentioned pls
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    11 December 2020 @ 13:19
    For me one of the best, no BS, clear contrarian strategy based on stats, probabilities, experience and a bit of technical magic, seems to be the only thing which works for the timeless swing trade ;-) Again thank you for bringing him onto daily briefing regularly, proper value-add! xxx
  • SK
    Stephen K.
    11 December 2020 @ 10:35
    Great guys, great discussion. Thank you both.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    11 December 2020 @ 08:01
    I enjoy Ed, but I am missing Roger. I also miss seeing Raoul every Friday.
  • DA
    David A.
    11 December 2020 @ 06:01
    I'm sure inside Tommy Thornton there is a wise analyst trying to get out. It's just a shame that he goes down the rabbit hole of De Mark indicators.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    11 December 2020 @ 05:05
    Gold follows real yields.. he's buying into a trap
  • NE
    Nathan E.
    11 December 2020 @ 05:00
    Always enjoy Tommy - like his humble, unassuming vibe combined with razor sharp mind when it comes to investing. Also like the effort he makes to provide a number of specific trade ideas to viewers while explaining his rationale. Lastly, he provides a great example of how to handle politics in the context of discussion - no mentions of 'the swamp,' socialism or on the other end Trump-bashing. Just a sober opinion focused on what we care about - here's what Trump did and here's what Biden might do differently and how that could impact investments.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    11 December 2020 @ 01:19
    Enjoy Tommy & Ed's discussions. Always valuable. One comment regarding Apple. The iPhone 12 is a huge change from prior generations (whether that impacts their bottom line, not clear). The A14 Bionic and 5G are a big transition from a technology and performance standpoint. A14 has more processing power than a laptop (way more) and 4GB of LPDDR5 (6400MT/s). It is generational change in platform processing power. What new applications that enables is yet to be seen... FWIW, I spent ~20 years as a chip architect...
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      11 December 2020 @ 04:36
      This is probably meaningful to a chip engineer but my guess is the general public sees basically the same phone.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    11 December 2020 @ 02:57
    Always enjoy Tommy and Ed - excellent. DeMark explanation was helpful, thanks. It is nuts these days the IPO's and valuations. I guess a good time to go public.
  • jG
    james G.
    11 December 2020 @ 00:46
    Never bet on the end of the world. you will only be right once and you will never be able to collect on the bet ... ---- I wish that was my quote but it's not --- it was a famous floor trader whose name escapes me :-))
    • MC
      Michael C.
      11 December 2020 @ 02:32
      Art Cashin's boss with regards to the Cuban missile crisis I believe.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    11 December 2020 @ 00:51
    This is all just so maddening...I need a drink...of root beer.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    10 December 2020 @ 23:46
    Awesome! Ed and Tommy are great, appreciate both of you. Keep up the good work