Tony Greer on Oil’s Surge, Liquidity Bonanzas, and “Inflation Hedge Paradise”

Published on
January 5th, 2021
Duration
34 minutes

2021 Kickoff: Looking Through the Headlines with Mike Green


Tony Greer on Oil’s Surge, Liquidity Bonanzas, and “Inflation Hedge Paradise”

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: January 5th, 2021 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact.

Comments

Transcript

  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    7 January 2021 @ 19:28
    This guy is straight talk awesome
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      9 January 2021 @ 07:05
      Agreed, love the guy
  • MF
    M F.
    7 January 2021 @ 12:01
    Plain and simple...Tony is the best.
  • TR
    Timothy R.
    7 January 2021 @ 07:54
    love it when Tony has the strap on
  • AK
    Arthur K.
    7 January 2021 @ 03:56
    "inflation hedge paradise ", "strapped to the chair"....these are great insights . Thanks
  • dj
    dennis j.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:50
    Wouldn't new CB push for climate change merit a shift in commodities tied to electric energy dev?
  • an
    antti n.
    6 January 2021 @ 22:26
    day late watching this but always Tony is always worthwhile to listen. Tape is singing dollar down , commodities up, feels like there are legs to go. in last cycle, DXY went all the way to 70-80s so there are more to stages to come. Question for Tony is the catalyst for pullback - is this something that could be triggered by Treasury curve steepening and at what levels? 1.25% in 10Y? with vaccines and economy re-opening would this mean bar for yield curve control is much higher - easier for Fed to taper?
  • SH
    Samuel H.
    6 January 2021 @ 00:32
    I think unfortunately this is the last TG Tuesday I am going to watch. Tony has some good insight on price action, but can't seem to divorce his personal political opinions from his market commentary. Although I appreciate his candidness, this is not why I come to RealVision. "Facts don't care about your feelings" - Just tell me what is probable/likely to happen and what the effects on markets would be, I don't care if you believe in climate change or not. If I am missing something here please let me know.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 January 2021 @ 02:00
      It is easier for me to understand Mr. Greer's trading positions when I see the whole man. If the politics is still bothering you, just filter it out. listen to the trade ideas. Good luck. DLS
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:04
      As they say, don’t let the door.....
    • PM
      Paul M.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:09
      He doesn't seem political but you seem overly sensitive. His problem is that all the climate change related stuff has been bid up and is so in vogue, etc...and between that and COVID everyone left commodities for the taking. Politics? And even if he has his own politics, why can't you listen to the rest and learn something from someone who clearly knows what he is doing. You know that old expression "every man can be a teacher" or something like that. Certainly his thesis that central banks are embarking on climate change as a potential excuse to keep juicing things can not be ruled out entirely. Not sure that is political, that might be the case. Or maybe they are not that smart, and he is wrong, and they are just trying to do a good thing, but they may in the end use it as an excuse to print. So he might be half right or a quarter right. I just think you can always learn regardless. Maybe its his view on there being no more lockdowns or something where he is at. That didn't seem right to me, but hey that's OK. Maybe he's just a little excited about his trades starting to work. Its not like Raoul doesn't get enthusiastic about his trades. That's fine too, probably comes with people who have fun personalities and aren't boring to listen to.
    • JA
      John A.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:13
      I don't particularly like Tony's views, but he is an adversarial voice that I need to listen to in order to make sure I am not sitting in my own echo chamber. Tony is a momentum trader, and he doesn't try to pretend he isn't, so I can respect his viewpoint even if I think he is dead wrong on my own time horizon and views.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      6 January 2021 @ 06:09
      I don't see it. Maybe relax a bit.
    • CA
      Chris A.
      6 January 2021 @ 18:15
      I would argue that he toned down his politics dramatically in this one. I really enjoyed it. He's clearly a smart guy and I like the trading insights.
    • SH
      Samuel H.
      6 January 2021 @ 19:20
      Thanks for all the replies. Was curious how others felt!
  • CA
    Chris A.
    6 January 2021 @ 17:54
    I really appreciate that Tony is not discussing personal politics any longer and is totally focused on the markets and the effects.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    6 January 2021 @ 17:45
    the velocity of money when the money goes to the stock market it is one step only the money tends to stay there for a long time. But it is inflation maybe, but it is inflation in Iron ore for sure and that is the velocity of money for sure.
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    6 January 2021 @ 16:07
    Enjoyed the interview , even though do not agree with "inflation is here" thesis. Even if that holds, asset price inflation is different from commodity inflation. Also, lets not forget that Tesla and Bitcoin prices were correlated with Avocado prices as well! https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tesla-and-avocados-millennial-traders-are-saying-ok-boomer
  • DA
    David A.
    6 January 2021 @ 06:26
    On Monday, we had Mike Green arguing that the inflation narrative is false, that supply constraints are temporary blips and that passive flows will soon reaasert the dominance of big tech. On Tuesday, Tony Greer argues that the inflation train has left the station and can’t be stopped. Both guests were met with nothing more challenging than a nod from the interviewers. On such an important question, there is a need for really probing, forensic interviewes (or a debate where the counter-arguments can be properly set out and addressed). Maybe the Daily Briefing isn’t the place for this but we need more than a series of recording were guests are simply able to make their pitch.
    • WD
      Walther D.
      6 January 2021 @ 14:15
      Also TG uses Tesla share price appreciation and bitcoin price appreciation as a proxy for accelerating velocity of money. The interviewer should ask him to expand on that because I’m not sure what one has to do with the other. Hasn’t the drop in velocity been attributed tied to aging population just like has been happening in Japan over the last 20 years? This is core to the argument that money printing won’t spur inflation, which is easily the most important capital market discussion at the moment
  • AE
    Arash E.
    6 January 2021 @ 03:29
    Here’s a conflicting view I noticed: Mike Green’s view on rising commodity prices was “due to lack of supply because of covid restrictions”, which will reverse once country opens back up to normal operation. But according to Tony here it’s because of inflation/excess $ printing. What gives?
    • JF
      Jess F.
      6 January 2021 @ 12:11
      CapEx is way down in most mining industries, nothing to do with covid, this is a trend that has multi-year implications.
  • ed
    edwin d.
    6 January 2021 @ 10:53
    Enjoy reading comments as well as listening to the interview. Many views on climate change exist. From my review of the literature, including some of the primary data (I know that opinions may not be worth much) -- climate change exists. But, the changes are not nearly as severe as many (esp the media) proclaim. Remember in News if it bleeds, it leads. I think this attempt to catch peoples attention has led the actual consequences of climate change to be exaggerated.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    6 January 2021 @ 09:22
    Something that Tony might oversee, is that President Elect Joe Biden might want to go back to lockdowns. I imagine he like the cuomo way of working. Why I think this is because there C19 hospitalizations are not going in the right direction and neither is that vaccination number (very slow). we will see 🤷‍♂️
  • SC
    Sam C.
    6 January 2021 @ 09:12
    Great Questions Ash!
  • SJ
    Stefan J.
    6 January 2021 @ 09:07
    Why are these 2 guys my favorite show ? 1. Simple clear thoughts which are applicable today, or is it confirmation bias ? Or that they just both flow together
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    6 January 2021 @ 06:12
    I was just looking at long term charts for different commodities and commodity ETFs. This bump we've had the last six months is like a little, bitty cocoa nib on the bottom of the charts. The 20, 30% increases are fun, but we could have years to run on a lot of these charts. I'm kind of like TG in that always a commodity bull. The last eight years have been purgatory. It's exciting to think about the trades that might be coming up in the time ahead.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    6 January 2021 @ 01:01
    Maybe they'll have everyone who has lost their job ride an exercycle with an alternator attached to it, and pay them 4000 a month to fight climate change.
    • JA
      John A.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:14
      They would make more money taking that energy to feed Bitcoin mining lol.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      6 January 2021 @ 06:07
      Wasn’t this the plot of the Matrix? More or less
  • jG
    james G.
    6 January 2021 @ 00:30
    Happy new year, Tony Greer and Ash Bennington are by far my favorite Daily Briefing. --- no filter.. say what you think, what you feel and don't give a sh*t whether I may agree or disagree .....
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      6 January 2021 @ 05:28
      Thanks, James!
  • pk
    preston k.
    6 January 2021 @ 04:16
    TG tuesday,love this guy
  • GA
    Gary A.
    6 January 2021 @ 03:39
    I think the inflation story is a false move for now.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    6 January 2021 @ 02:10
    I'm going to add something here that I think needs to be addressed. The commentary here needs to be a discussion about the content, similar to what happens on the exchange. I realize in this case we are getting Tony's perspective. I don't want to impact Tony's perspective, but I'd like to see analysis and potentially alternate points of view or affirmation for that matter...
    • SB
      Simon B.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:27
      Mike Green provided an alternative view yesterday
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:39
    I like you Tony, but you are wrong on climate change. It is real. One good example is the Ozone layer and how global action resolved the issue. But I love your straight shooting. Honest opinion is something I value most – regardless if I agree with it or not.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      5 January 2021 @ 23:44
      Denying climate change is like denying the proximity of death is an existential question for which our brains are not designed. We can deny or we can accept we cannot stop it and I would love that RV invites someone who clearly let us know how much time does humanity have in the world if the climate change scenarios are confirmed.
    • PG
      P G.
      6 January 2021 @ 00:31
      No one know. Both sides don’t know.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:27
      Jon S are you trying to pretend to believe that someone actually knows “how much time humanity has in the world”? The hubris is remarkable.
  • Jc
    Jacqueline c.
    6 January 2021 @ 00:23
    Hey, Is Haley related to someone on the management team? She's trying to hard really just be yourself ...Her professional classes make me focus on her mouth and how she delivers her information.....Afain, just be yourself.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      6 January 2021 @ 02:21
      That’s really unprofessional to post on a public forum. You should be ashamed jacquline
    • MK
      Michael K.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:23
      Poor form Jacqueline.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:56
    I do not agree with the perception of finish of lockdowns. I think that the real second wave has only started and historically will be remembered due to the covid mutation. All waves are related to major mutations. I think this is a completely underestimated fact and a covid redux crash could occur again... I do not like this scenario clearly as member of human community but the reality is very different from the perception of the same right now.
    • JA
      John A.
      6 January 2021 @ 03:11
      I've been watching growth vs death rates, the death rate growth hasn't been increasing at the same rate case growth has. I think we are approaching the peak, once we have the Christmas wave come thru, I think we will start to see things level off. Combine that with hospital workers now having access to vaccines, and I think there is enough progress being made on COVID that markets will look past it now. The real issue is what happens when we actually ARE past COVID and markets have to start trading on their own merits. Plus how do 30 million people facing eviction actually impact things? We are going to eventually look up and realize that demand is in danger.
  • JA
    John A.
    6 January 2021 @ 03:05
    People are confusing supply shocks and currency debasement for inflation. They aren't the same thing. No one should be happy with oil when the Saudi's keep having to cut to support the price. That makes it a trade, not a long-term fundamental demand that is going to drive prices higher over the long term. Talk to me when the massacre of SMB's is over.
  • BF
    Bill F.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:56
    I've positively commented on TG Tuesdays in the past and hate being redundant. Ash asks sharp incisive questions and Tony provides clear expansive answers, I'm sure I must be drinking the kool-aid but I learn a great deal from these two. Maybe Tony can increase his number of visits from 20. I'd watch!
    • IW
      Ian W.
      6 January 2021 @ 02:55
      I agree.
  • DS
    David S.
    6 January 2021 @ 02:09
    I am normally too abstract. It is really good for me to listen to a sincere trader who is telling us his trades and how he is moving his stops. Well done. DLS
  • CR
    Carlos R.
    6 January 2021 @ 00:39
    Thank you Tony, love hearing your takes my man!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:45
    Nice start to the year - welcome back lads.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      6 January 2021 @ 00:28
      Couldn't agree more Matt. I had the pleasure of watching this "TG Tuesday" live
  • TC
    Tim C.
    6 January 2021 @ 00:21
    I like getting Tony's perspective since he's a trader. Commodities discussion is interesting. It would be nice to have Ash drag out a few more details. For example, metals, lumber, oil and soft commodities are rallying for different reasons. Lumping them into one giant bucket isn't helpful. They are moving for a plurality of factors that don't move together. I think he is dead wrong about tech. Tech is bifurcated. The Zooms of the world will get hammered over time. AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, not so much. AAPL for one is a cyclical heading into a super cycle. AAPL may be over valued vis-a-vis multiples, but super cycle plus retail investors being more comfortable with it are a fairly strong force. AMZN and MSFT are tied to the economy and again have the familiarity factor. If I'm wrong, I'll own it... Velocity of money and PMI print? Velocity of money and... ... Ok... I would love to hear Ash ask Tony about Russel 2000. I'm dubious that the selloff on Monday was about anything other than capital gains...
  • JS
    Jon S.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:42
    What happened to the backgrounds of Haley? :) Amazing intro in any event keep it up Haley! You are improving every day. Great job! Happy new year!
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      5 January 2021 @ 23:51
      Haley’s insights are great and that is all I need. People complaining about her voice is need to understand they not listening to opera. So voice and accent (as long as I can understand what the person says) don’t matter to me.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      5 January 2021 @ 23:57
      Her voice is very nice to listen to. If my humble opinion serves. She does a great job and the tone has improved a lot to the extent that Haily intro is the only news I listen to apart from the local ones here.
  • MJ
    Michael J.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:55
    I run an exploration company in Perth Western Australia. This city is taking off! Property prices burgeoning, new resource IPO's every week, office space being taken up for the first time since 2012. The resource boom is well underway here.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:52
    Great interview guys. All the best for 2021! Cheers
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    5 January 2021 @ 23:41
    Btw – I love to see Dems win Georgia for same reasons Ash mentioned. I’d like to see what The Big Guy is going to do with Dems controlling the universe. Lol