Tony Greer – “When the Bond Market Speaks, I Like to Listen”

Published on
January 19th, 2021
Duration
33 minutes


Tony Greer – “When the Bond Market Speaks, I Like to Listen”

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: January 19th, 2021 • Duration: 33 minutes

Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration.

Comments

Transcript

  • EP
    Elton P.
    22 January 2021 @ 06:04
    Ash and Tony, good stuff!
  • JN
    Jerrick N.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:56
    "watch the headlines and adjust my positions accordingly" That has got to be the worst advice ive ever heard
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      20 January 2021 @ 02:42
      Are you sure you are not cherry picking for the sake of being petty? I've been listening to these for a while. These briefings with TG are more-or-less contemporaneous affairs. So, perhaps someone misspoke. Ferret it out. Use your judgment. Move on. Things are moving too fast to waste everyone's time with something so trivial. In fact, I'm wasting my time replying. Further, does anyone see this, or other, briefings as _advice_? I don't. No way on heaven or earth is this advice. This is one person's take on a complex maelstrom.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      20 January 2021 @ 05:43
      Love Phillip B's reply and God bless him for taking the time to waste some time. I agree with Phillip: "watch the headlines and adjust my positions accordingly" is not advice. It's just what this one man is doing. He's not building his core knowledge and core strategy off of the headlines! He is able to pay attention to the headlines/news because he has already done his primary homework, developed a fundamental outlook and now just needs to keep as much abreast about what he decided to take a position in as he can. This is his situation, it isn't trading advice. I made an investment similar to Tony's situation back in 2016. I did my homework and developed an outlook on the thing I was looking at. I took a position that mattered (if it worked out I would make a nice material gain) and after that I was glued to the news every day (the stock I bought had significant political risk). Doing things this way felt fine for me personally but I never would have thought of what I was doing as an example for someone else to follow. I specifically felt comfortable enough with the approach that I took, it was a personal thing not a "this method will also fit others" thing.
    • DM
      Don M.
      21 January 2021 @ 01:50
      Tony was a big Trump guy. He's letting politics pollute his vision, just as it did under Trump. Sad If you're just now waking up to commodities, you need to sign up for Hedgeye.
  • DS
    David S.
    21 January 2021 @ 00:36
    " All I want is my fair share....all I want is what I have coming to me.....A Charlie Brown Christmas.....Where's my UBI?
    • DS
      David S.
      21 January 2021 @ 00:43
      So, as long as the country's going straight to financial hell.....send me my big check!
  • MW
    Michael W.
    20 January 2021 @ 15:00
    Nice IKEA backdrop there. I have the same one dividing my home office (formal dining room) from the living room. It’s been a God-send!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      21 January 2021 @ 00:39
      Ha! You are correct!!
  • JF
    Jackie F.
    20 January 2021 @ 22:24
    Ash and Tony - anything better than this combination? Thank you gentlemen.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      21 January 2021 @ 00:38
      Thanks, Jackie!
  • JV
    J V.
    20 January 2021 @ 23:31
    Great to hear an experienced trader say "I don't know", and that he's fine on the sideline doing homework and researching future opportunities. T Greer > T Stark.
  • JA
    John A.
    20 January 2021 @ 20:34
    Tony pulling back on the market in a wait and see posture is a warning sign for the WSB bulls.
  • WG
    Wesley G.
    20 January 2021 @ 17:52
    Great discussion. I am new, but already a huge Tony Greer fan. I really like Tony's focus as I have been a long term focused investor for many years.
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    20 January 2021 @ 15:05
    I am really starting to enjoy the daily briefs,,good job..l
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    20 January 2021 @ 12:14
    So good ...
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    20 January 2021 @ 11:26
    Great insights. Thanks for making it non-partisan.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    20 January 2021 @ 04:48
    Can we at least kee a file cabinet as background for Ash? It's kind of his trademark. Not even RVDB with out it. ;-) great show as always. Thanks
    • DD
      David D.
      20 January 2021 @ 10:55
      That was the first thing I noticed in this video too. Backgrounds aside, you've got to like Ash.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    20 January 2021 @ 10:50
    Welcome to the crypto world, Tony! 10% move is 1% move in SPX, exciting world for trader and vc investor. ;-)
  • JJ
    JARED J.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:11
    I miss the file cabinet . . .
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      20 January 2021 @ 01:15
      Hidden behind the screen!
    • BS
      Boris S.
      20 January 2021 @ 07:55
      Yeah Ash, you have changed, sad day for RV fam!
  • CW
    Christopher W.
    20 January 2021 @ 03:47
    Took a few weeks off from RV and was getting prepared to make a long-term investment. Exactly what I needed to hear from you TG!
    • MC
      Mark C.
      20 January 2021 @ 04:47
      Has me thinking for sure. Always enjoy TG Tuesday
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    20 January 2021 @ 04:46
    Hayley’s presentation style has come a long way. Impressive progress.
  • KP
    Kaushal P.
    20 January 2021 @ 03:32
    Personally listening to Yellen made me nervous. I agree with Tony, small put position and large cash position starting today. The announcements in the first few days of Joe Biden administrations are going to be more left leaning than markets expect, may spook people and cause a 10% dip.
  • JT
    John T.
    20 January 2021 @ 02:44
    I always love Tony Greer’s segment. I totally disagree with a number of his macro positions, as I’m on the deflationary side with Steven Van Metre, but we are both concerned with the sentiment indicators and I’ve always loved to hear about TG’s thoughts and trading process.
  • FR
    FLAVIO R.
    20 January 2021 @ 01:30
    Thank you Ash and Tony super proper DB. When will be out the Jason W interview?
  • RG
    Robert G.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:24
    TG, Love the pic of JB!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:18
    Great interview - as always. Very generous with your trade ideas Tony. Nice retro comment on the pinball machine. I thought your place was on fire there for a bit Ash - a bit of something wafting up behind the screen. Thanks for the heads up on the cannabis video too!
  • RG
    Rob G.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:18
    Hey TG enjoy your segments. What about long $DBA to express bullish ags view?
  • JS
    Jon S.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:15
    Tony is my go to 'trader guy' sound board. He's wicked smart. Thanks for having him back on TG Tuesdays!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    20 January 2021 @ 00:03
    great brief. Thank you HD, AB and TG.
  • JL
    Jason L.
    19 January 2021 @ 23:32
    Haley’s explanation of MMT in the US, “moving a decimal point on an infinite balance sheet”, is spot on and well said. Only works with the world’s reserve currency!